Migration. Himani Upadhyay Earth Science and Climate Change Division TERI 17 th December 2013

Transcription

1 EploringPerceptions Exploring Of Climate Change And Migration Himani Upadhyay Earth Science and Climate Change Division TERI 17 th December 2013

2 Far from changes in the physical climates and change in weather Climate Change has become an idea that travels beyond its origin in natural science, meeting world politics, economics, popular culture, religion often through the interposing role of the media takes new meanings and serves new purposes (Mike Hulme, 2007)

3 Climate Change and Migration: Developing a Future Research Agenda One year Scoping Study TERI CICERO collaboration Supported by Research Council of Norway (RCN) under the INDNOR program Objectives: To conduct a scoping and planning exercise which can provide a platform for operationalzing the learning's in the future To do the groundwork for framing a future research agenda on climate change and migration, by highlighting the gaps in current knowledge and outlining the conceptual issues

4 Framework CON NCEPTULIS SATION Definitions/ Terminologies Data Collection Challenges Methodological Approaches Drivers Implications Thresholds Types Climate Change Migration CONTE EXULISATIO ON Social Structure Environmental Effects Physical Attributes Policy Challenges Economic Status and Livelihoods Cultural Elements

5 Learning's Quantitative Dimensions: Estimates and data issues Numbers?? Estimates range from 200 million (Meyers 2005) to 1 billion (Christain Aid, 2007) Lambart (2002) has estimated that there will be 20 million people displaced by climate change in China IOM predicts upto 1 billion migrants in next 40 years (IOM, 2011) Disagreement on the figures Invalid based on conjecture and worst case scenario (Raleigh and Jordan, 2010) Anecdotal (Castle, 2002; Hugo, 2009) Lackofempirical evidence andhugevariations in numbers uncertain of climate change scenarios unsure of climate change hazards unsure of how these changes and hazards will effect people on ground unsure of how these changes and hazards will effect people on ground Numbers are distracting, misleading, cause effect based and likely inaccurate OR Maybe correct?

6 Data and methodological challenges Lack of data Diluted and doubtful numbers for climate change related migration Lack of understanding on behalf of the institutions and agencies responsible for census data collection Challenging to identify and collect data on these issues as there are no variables which directly represent such a process

7 Conceptualisation in Science and Policy Adaptation or the failure to adapt How is climate change emerging as a new driver Framings in time and space permanent, long term temporary, transitional, seasonal internal, trans boundary at different boundary scales, rural/urban, coastal/inland

8 Multiplier effect of climate change on existing pull and push factors of migration.

9 Contextualization in Science and Policy Framing of migration decisions Migration choices Impacts from and on migration What processes shape and are impacted by migration Physical, economic, social, political, legal

10 Perceptions and understandings of climate change and migration: Conceptualising and contextualising for Lakshadweep and the Mldi Maldives Phase II by RCN (under INDNOR) Consortium Partners: University College of London (UK) University of Manchester (UK) University of Reading (UK) Centre for Earth Research and Environment Management (India) GRID Arendal (Norway)

11 Research Questions To what extent and in what ways is climate change is understood (scientifically, policy wise, and from people s perspectives) es) to be an additional driver for already eisting existing migration behaviour? How is it understood (scientifically, policy wise, and from people s perspectives) to induce new trends? d? What are people s perceptions of climate change and responses (including migration), especially those which top down views are generally not aware of? (That is, collecting life histories, day to day stories, narratives). Differences in perceptions for those on the frontlines compared to policy/decision makers. What is heterogeneous and what is homogeneous about the migration and climate change backgrounds and experiences of the people in the case studies? What are the policy implications and why? How should it be contextualised for location?

12 Methodology Key informant interviews in preliminary visit 200 HHS in each island so total of 800 HHS QUANTITATIVE 40 one to one interviwes in each island total of 160 interviews QUALITATIVE Targeting local people (women representation), NGOs and policy makers Collecting demographic data, environmental data, climate data, socio economic data, documents, policies, and practices from the communities including laws (customary or recorded), reports from local lngos Participatory data Non Participatory dt data Phase 1 Of Field Work

13 Contd. Presenting preliminary academicanalysesandanalyses and interpretations to the local partners to triangulate those results with the local partners understanding. Identify need for further focussed groups and interviews Ensuring that the local partners have what they need to apply the lessons from the work Translating the final results into local languages (Malyalam and Divehi) Phase 2 Of Field Work

14 Project s original contribution Theory: Deeper conceptualisation. Deeper contextualisation. Does not assume that people respond linearly Empirical: Case studies: individually and comparison. Method for field protocol. Theory Practice Exploring the CC andmigration narrativewith ground perspectives and empirical evidence Suggests new perspectives for policy and implementation.

15 CASE STUDY SITES

16 Lakshadweep Is an archipelago of 36 islands total 32sq km in area 10 inhabited islands majority of the indigenous population is Muslim Kavaratti capital of Lakshadweep, high floating population Despite various influences traditional subsistence lifestyle is reliant on copra and fishing is the mainstay Economic opportunities in the mainland do not attract majority of the population Ground water used for drinking is a major concern Limited tourism: Local people are pro tourist and tourism Resort owners have taken government to court over tendering issues for permit Cost of living is high as food and other important utilities are imported from the mainland

17 Contd. Increased temperature, erratic rains, increased dry spells, changes in sea surface temperature, increased nightsea temperature, increased erosion, sea level rise (50 50) People relate to these changes more after the tsunami of 2004 Corals have degraded Decreased fish catch famous for tuna which survives on bait fishes living in corals Climate change or rising sea level and risk of being inundated is not a major concern Sinking of islands not a reality at present Climate change is not a day to day life concern If there was a concern there would be community discussion about it

18 Maldives Chain of 26 atolls Muslim dominated population tourism is the mainstay K. Guraidhoo adjoining to a tourist resort island Climate Change is not shaping peoples everyday lives and livelihood strategies not a concern People are aware and not ignorant History of conflict with ihthe tourist sector Environment taking the collateral damage is major concern Programsfor climate changeawareness awareness havebeen initiated by the government Development aid to themaldives has decreased, but support for climate change work has increased. Political élite potentially see climate change as a way to keep aid coming in and are willing to exploit that

19 People s perceptions People are aware of climate change and its impacts Believe that nothing will happen to their island and if does sink, they will sink with it but do not wish to migrate or even considered to While be relocated environmentally motivated Possibility of literal sinking of the island due to the buildings being so heavy (Maldives), migration or poses construction a challenge activities the (Lakshadweep) issue People raised have a by strong people preference unable /unwilling for a simple to and leave relaxed lifestyle everyone dangerous/risky prefers it here circumstances / regions Importance maybe of kinship, more or community equally significant cohesion ifi and (UK il island culture is part of day to day lives Foresight, 2011) Can survive with little money Religious teachings since childhood have inculcated a loyalty to motherland Place attachment, belonging and place identity is over and above the risk from climate change and hazards If they have to migrate or are relocated by the government Preference for Kerala due to similar language, culture, close to sea Mixed views on migration for survival

20 Migrating to adapt? Question of survival can lead to migration Migration as an adaptation to climate change can be constrained by: Variations in risk perceptions Distant nature of climate change Failure to link current experiences with future events Migration may ostensibly be adaptation, but cannot be considered successful: damage to people s traditions, knowledge, social orders, identities, and material cultures (Adger et al., 2011) If adaptation constrains people s p legitimate right to development, then it cannot be considered successful (Barnett, 2005) A decision to move or stay is specific to specific people (household), societies and environment systems Place identity careful consideration, and inclusion of person place bonds can facilitate planning and policy development that is appropriate to local l context (Baxter and Armitage, 2012)

21 Echoing the same voice Tuvalu popularly projected as first climate refugees Disagree with their media constructed status Do not consider their islands as disappearing or communities in crisis Value their local lifestyle, culture and community cohesion on the island (Mortreux & Barnett, 2009andFarbotko & Lazrus, 2012) Example New Zelands pacific access category of migrants Shishmaref, Alaska: lack of understanding the colonial history and lack of local representation in decision making (Marino, 2012) Kirbati People value stability associated with remaining in one community may experience deterioration in quality in life if they are forced to relocate as a an adaptation to CC impacts (Agyeman et al., 2009) Emigration is stage when you know you are loosing the battle we are Emigration is stage when you know you are loosing the battle, we are nowhere near that (cited in Pearce, 2000)

22 How do we account for loss of community cohesion, importance of local culture values and place identity How do we measure loss and damage to things that are socially constructed What about social impacts? Loss of culture, place, community values Cannot be monetized or assigned quantitative values Economic metrics used widely is not applicable here Loss of house vs loss of home So can money payments ever come close to compensating these losses? If it is difficult to compensate loss of place, culture and values then should decision making proceed on rights, precaution? will it create new problems What will be the modes of delivery and distribution? Impact of aid on recipient community Loss is distributed unequally just as vulnerability is differentially constructed Purpose to restore minimum self sufficiency Vs replacement of losses Need versus loss debate

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24 Migrant Vs Refugees Migrant should beunderstood as "covering all cases wherethedecision to migrate is taken freely by the individual concerned, for reasons of 'personal convenience' and without intervention of an external compelling facto. (UN Convention on the Rights of Migrants ) Refugees : people with a well founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion is outside the country of his nationality and is unable or, owing to such fear, unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country; or who, not having a nationality and being outside the country of his former habitual residence as a result of such events, is unable or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to return to it (1951 United Nations Convention on Refugees and its 1967 Amendment,UNHCR, 2006). A migrant could be anyone relocating voluntarily or otherwise within his own country. A migrant is called a refugee when he is forced to seek refuge and his movement is characterized by a cross border movement