Visi n. Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy

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1 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board Visi n North Carolina s growing, diversified economy is competitive in the global marketplace. High quality jobs are plentiful across all economic, geographic and demographic sectors, without undue reliance on too few industries. Knowledge workers dominate the workforce and citizens take advantage of modern communications and technology to create new economic opportunities. Sound, strategic investments in people and infrastructure have accelerated our transition from traditional to knowledge-based economies. With our willingness to think boldly and our faith in ourselves we have built a new economy laboratory on the foundation of our traditional economic strengths.

2 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy 6.2 North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board The Big Picture The State of Our Economy Long dominated by the big three textiles, furniture and tobacco North Carolina s economy is undergoing dramatic diversification. Traditional industries remain important, but other sectors are growing at a much faster rate. In terms of jobs, the service sector is already the largest economic sector, accounting for one quarter of all non-farm employment. As the shift to the new economy continues, our performance will increasingly depend on the quality of education, training and infrastructure. The state has made significant contributions in economic development over the years, by establishing special funds, enacting business-friendly legislation and creating incentives for development in underdeveloped areas. But the future will require even more. The real question is, where should we target our investments? In our workforce? Roads? Airports? Research centers and public universities? Right now, we lack the information required to decide. To make strategic investments, North Carolina must have platform for monitoring new economy trends and determining where our public investments are likely to have the greatest impact. With this information, we can make sure our state is globally competitive and that no one gets left behind. PERCENT OF GSP BY ECONOMIC SECTOR 27.0% 15.4% 15.3% 14.5% 13.2% 7.9% 4.2% 2.5% Manufacturing Services Wholesale & retail trade Finance, insurance & real estate Government Transportation, communications & public utilities Construction Natural resources Double Exposure The shift to a knowledge economy raises the stakes for education and workforce development. Unskilled North Carolinians will simply not be able to find good, wellpaying jobs; everyone will need education beyond high school and continual training and retraining to keep up. These issues are considered in the sections on A Quality Education for All and A High Performance Workforce.

3 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy 6.3 North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board Promoting Broad, Sustainable Economic Growth Goal 1 North Carolina promotes dynamic, diverse and sustainable economic growth across all regions and demographic groups. Economic growth can be measured in many ways: State Gross Product (GSP). This measure reflects the value of all goods and services produced in the state. Steady and sustainable growth in the GSP reflects long-term economic growth. Net business start ratio. The ratio of net business starts refers to the number of business starts relative to business closings. A high net business start ratio indicates short-term economic vitality. Employment. The job growth rate and the unemployment rate reflect the quantity of job opportunities available. Per capita personal income. This measure reflects the quality of job opportunities in comparison to the rest of the nation. A per capita income of 110% of the US level is an indicator of relative economic prosperity, business growth and high wage jobs. In this section, we consider all of these measures and more. We look at the data in terms of equity between rural and urban areas, between the majority white population and minorities, and between men and women. Target 1.1 North Carolina ranks in the top 10 in the US in the long-term growth rate for the Gross State Product (GSP). The growth of North Carolina s gross state product (GSP) has exceeded the national average for two decades, but stalled in recent years. Unfortunately, we have not seen the per capita GSP ranking improve in the last few years.

4 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy 6.4 North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board US rank in growth rate of the GSP over time : North Carolina ranked ninth in the nation in GSP growth rate Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis GSP growth rate, : NC: 23.5% US: 16.7% Source: NC Board of Science and Technology National ranking in per capita GSP: 1998: 21st 2000: 21st Source: Governing Sourcebook 1999 and 2001 and Bureau of Economic Statistics Target 1.2 North Carolina ranks among the top 10 states in the ratio of net business starts. By this measure, the state s short-term economic vitality is beginning to wane. In 1997 and 1998, North Carolina s ratio of business starts to failures was twice as high as the nation s. The Index of State Economic Momentum (an average of the most recent one-year growth rates in employment, personal income and population) also reveals a decline. On this index, North Carolina fell from a national ranking of 6th in 1997 to 15th in 1998 and then again to 22nd in US rank in the ratio of net business starts 1998: 7th 1999: 11th Source: NC Board of Science and Technology Target 1.3 North Carolina ranks in the top 10 states in the long-term growth rate for jobs. A consistently high job growth rate is one reliable indicator of a strong, prosperous economy. From 1990 to 2000, North Carolina s employment expanded by 14.7%, matching the US growth rate. The state exceeded the US average in job growth between and and the unemployment rate was consistently below the national average in the 1980s and 90s. The state s national rank, however, fell during this period. Annual Percent Change Annual Percent Change REAL GSP GROWTH NC US Year AVERAGE ANNUAL JOB GROWTH NC US National ranking in the long-term growth rate for jobs : 13th : 26th Source: NC Board of Science and Technology Year

5 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy 6.5 North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board Target 1.4 North Carolina ranks in the top 20 states in personal income or at least 100% of the US average. Despite some progress during the 1990s, our state continues to trail the nation in per capita income. From 1990 to 1999, North Carolina s per capita personal income increased from 87% to 91% of the US average, and the national rank for per capita income rose from 35th to 32nd. National ranking in personal income From 1994 to 1998, North Carolina enjoyed the 13th highest per capita income growth rate in the nation. In 1998, North Carolina ranked as high as 28th in the nation in per capita income. However, in 1999, due in part to Hurricane Floyd damage, North Carolina had the slowest per capita income growth rate in the nation. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Target 1.5 The ratio of non-metro per capita income to metro per capita income will be at least 80%. Despite our impressive statewide economic performance, some segments have been left behind. In particular, the state s rural areas have fared poorly in median family income and employment and may be losing their ability to compete. According to the NC Department of Commerce, urban areas have more than twice the capacity of rural areas to finance community investments. REGIONAL ECONOMIC DISPARITIES, 1998 NC Commerce Percent of NC Average Department Region Median Family Income Unemployment Northeast 76.9% 174.3% Advantage West 81.2% 105.7% Southeast 81.6% 154.3% Global Transpark 86.6% 148.6% Piedmont Triad 98.0% 82.8% Research Triangle 103.2% 62.8% Carolina 104.1% 80.0% Sources: US Department of Commerce and NC Employment Security Commission NC UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP Rural Lens The state has made significant investments in the rural economic future over the years, establishing special funds and creating incentives for business development. But the gap persists: in 1999, 26 rural counties experienced persistent poverty (a poverty rate of at least 18% since 1980). With only 41% of the jobs, rural areas incurred nearly 60% of the layoffs in and two-thirds of the manufacturing job losses. The gap is also widening between the state s rich and poor, creating another potential threat to economic prosperity. Between 1980 and 1998, real average incomes increased by nearly 40% for the wealthiest fifth of households but only less than 1% for the poorest. Ratio of per capita income in rural areas to per capita income in urban areas 1991: 76% 1996: 75% Source: NC Rural Economic Development Center Percent Unemployed Males Females Whites African Americans Hispanics Ethnic Lens The employment gap between African Americans and other groups remains. While the Hispanic unemployment rate has improved dramatically, the African American unemployment rate was nearly three times higher than that of whites in Year

6 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy 6.6 North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board Expanding the New Economy Goal 2 North Carolina will expand the emerging economy sectors, including technology and other knowledge-based businesses. In North Carolina, the new economy involves a broad range of industries, from information technology and instruments to chemicals and plastics. To remain a new economy leader, our state must stimulate private investment in technology and innovation, creating a receptive climate for new venture and research and development spending two of the building blocks of successful knowledge-based companies. We must also make targeted investments in infrastructure that new economy companies need, such as telecommunications networks, modern transportation systems and logistics centers. Harnessing the full potential of our universities will expand our pool of knowledge workers and promote the growth of new economy firms in all sectors, including software, bioinformatics, pharmaceuticals and manufacturing. Target 2.1 North Carolina will rank among the top 10 states in the Progressive Policy Institute s New Economy Index. North Carolina has gained national recognition for our success in attracting new economy businesses. The Wall Street Journal ranked North Carolina among America s 13 Hottest High Tech Regions in But the state is not where we need to be to remain competitive: National ranking on the State New Economy Index In 1999, North Carolina ranked: 30th in overall new economy rankings 39th in aggregated digital economy scores 31st in aggregated knowledge job scores, 39th in workforce education 29th in initial public offerings. Source: State New Economy Index, Progressive Policy Institute

7 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy 6.7 North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board Target 2.2 North Carolina is one of the top 10 states in the value of initial public stock offerings (IPOs) as a percent of GSP. Based on this measure which indicates the state s ability to rejuvenate its economy North Carolina is at best average. National ranking in the value of initial public offerings as a percent of GSP 1998: 29th Source: State New Economy Index, Progressive Policy Institute In 1999, North Carolina was ranked 23rd in the US in the percent of jobs generated by gazelle companies (young, high-growth companies), another measure of economic dynamism. Target 2.3 North Carolina is one of the top 10 states in industry research and development spending as a percentage of GSP. Our capacity for economic innovation, as measured by Research and Development (R & D) spending, venture capital spending and patents, is relatively limited compared to other states. While R & D spending rose throughout the 1990s as a share of the state s GSP, our R&D expenditures have remained below the US average since Our track record for venture capital investments has also been disappointing, consistently falling below the US average. National rank in R & D spending as a percentage of GSP 1999: 27th Source: State New Economy Index, Progressive Policy Institute Target 2.4 North Carolina ranks among the top 10 states in the ratio of high tech workers per 1,000 jobs. North Carolina remains a mid-tier state in the generation of high tech and knowledge jobs. Share of GSP RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT SPENDING NC US National ranking in the ratio of high tech workers per 1,000 jobs 1999: 23rd in number of high-tech workers per 1,000 jobs 22nd in the percent of civilian scientists and engineers Source: State New Economy Index, Progressive Policy Institute Year

8 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board 6.8 Revitalizing the Traditional Economy Goal 3 North Carolina will revitalize the traditional economic sectors and ensure their competitiveness in national and global markets. The transformation of North Carolina s traditional economy, including the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, is well underway. In economic terms, this transformation involves a shift from traditional to knowledge-based manufacturing and a greater focus on international exports. In human terms, it often means layoffs and economic hardship, a burden inordinately felt by our rural communities. Our challenge is not to save archaic industries or preserve old ways of doing business. Rather, it is to incorporate the best elements of our traditional economy pride, work ethic and integrity into the very foundation of our emerging economy. Target 3.1 North Carolina will reach 110% of the US ratio of average wages for major growth sectors to average wages for declining sectors. North Carolina has experienced relatively modest industrial restructuring, but the worst is probably not over, according to the NC Board of Science and Technology. Thus far, while our traditional sectors have incurred profound job losses, our emerging sectors have been able to absorb many of these losses. Therefore, displaced workers in North Carolina have been more likely to find work at better or equal pay than workers elsewhere. Ratio of average wages for major growth sectors to average wages for declining sectors as a percent of the US ratio 1997: NC ratio: 97.3 US ratio: 90.4 Source: NC Innovation Index 2000, NC Board of Science and Technology Target 3.2 North Carolina is one of the top 10 states in the relative strength of traded sectors. North Carolina s economy remains relatively competitive in terms of the strength of the traded sectors (that is, industries that compete in inter-state, national and international markets and thus bring wealth back to the state). The state s most significant traded sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, forestry and banking tend to be traditional economic sectors as well. US rank in relative strength of traded sectors 2000: 20th in traded sector strength 27th in traded sector strength change 10th in traded sector competitiveness Source: Development Report Card for the States, Corporation for Enterprise Development, 2000 Target 3.3 North Carolina is among the top 10 states in manufacturing jobs as a percent of non-farm jobs. North Carolina has been a national leader in manufacturing, ranking 8th in the nation in manufacturing GSP. From 1994 to 1998, North Carolina had the 7th highest increase in average hourly earnings of manufacturing production workers. Unfortunately, this picture may be misleading. Although the total number of manufacturing jobs declined only slightly, job losses have been more dramatic since 1998 and more severe in certain industries. North Carolina lost nearly 49,000 manufacturing jobs from July 2000 to July From 1990 to 2000, the number of textile and apparel jobs declined by 117,000 jobs. US rank in manufacturing jobs as percent of non-farm jobs 1998: 4th Source: US Department of Labor Target 3.4 North Carolina is one of the top 10 states in net farm income. Agriculture remains an important part of our economy, contributing $46 billion a year. It is estimated that nearly one-fourth of North Carolina s GSP and total jobs is related to agriculture, forestry, fiber, food processing or related industries.

9 Imperative 6: A Prosperous Economy North Carolina 20/20: Report of the North Carolina Progress Board 6.9 With the agribusiness industry undergoing massive restructuring, North Carolina s ability to adapt to change has become a critical issue. For example, the number of large farms (with annual sales of $500,000 and above) has tripled and, while representing only 8% of total farms, account for 73% of sales. Hogs and poultry have surpassed tobacco as product sales leaders, while the state s farm products have become increasingly diverse. Goal 4 US rank in net farm income th in net farm income 8th in total agriculture cash receipts Source: NC Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Assuring Global Competitiveness North Carolina promotes the expansion of international markets and facilitates access to foreign capital and commerce. North Carolina dramatically increased global trade during the 1990s. From 1993 to 1999, for instance, state exports increased by nearly 68%, reaching $17.9 billion. North Carolina also became a preferred site for foreign investment in the last decade. By 1997, foreign investment generated 225,000 jobs or 7.5% of total private industry employment the third highest percent in the nation. In 1998, there were 738 foreign-owned companies from 35 countries in North Carolina, about 75% of which were located in the state s larger metropolitan areas. Target 4.1 North Carolina will be a leader in global trade, ranking among the top 10 states in merchandise exports as a percent of GSP. International exports reflect the level of North Carolina s integration into the global economy. While export activity has increased dramatically, the state continues to fall short of the national average in export intensity the ratio of exports to GSP. US rank in merchandise exports as a percent of GSP 1997: NC export intensity: 6% US export intensity: 7.6% NC national ranking: 25th Source: NC Innovation Index 2000, NC Board of Science and Technology In manufacturing exports, North Carolina enjoys a higher national ranking. In 1999, the total value of our manufacturing exports reached $13.3 billion, ranking us 11th among the 50 states. Source: NC Department of Commerce, Economic Development Information System Target 4.2 North Carolina will rank among the top 10 states in the percent of jobs in export-oriented industries. Workers employed in export-oriented firms earn roughly 10% more than those in other firms. US rank in percent of jobs in export-oriented industries 2000: 37th (based on 1992 Census data) Source: State New Economy Index Target 4.3 North Carolina will be a leader in foreign investment, ranking in the top 10 states in foreign direct investment. In 1998, Site Selection magazine ranked North Carolina first in the nation for foreignowned business location. However, our national ranking in the percent of workers employed by foreign companies, an important measure of the degree of foreign direct investment, in our state, shows signs of slipping. US rank in foreign direct investment 1997: 3rd 1998: 14th Source: NC Department of Commerce, Economic Development Information System Close-up If the Cold War [and the industrial economy] were a sport it would be sumo wrestling It would be two big fat guys in a ring, with all sorts of posturing and rituals and stomping of feet, but actually very little contact, until the end of the match, when there is a brief moment of shoving and the loser gets pushed out of the ring, but nobody gets killed By contrast, if globalization [and the knowledge economy] were a sport, it would be the 100-meter dash, over and over. And no matter how many times you win, you have to race again the next day. And if you lose by just one-hundredth of a second, it can be as if you lost by an hour Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree