Flexible Packaging Association. Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy

Transcription

1 Flexible Packaging Association Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy October 5, 2011 Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy The Great Global Drivers *Psychological Forces *Globalization *Energy *The Middle East *Pakistan Afghanistan *Islam *China *Europe *The U.S. *The Good News *One Last (Amazing) Middle East Story 1

2 Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy Take Aways * It s Not As Bad As It Sounds (Mark Twain) *Globalization disseminates everything not just goods but ideas, people, drugs, services, revolution, disease * Shale Gas generates a boom and an era of cheaper electricity for U.S. manufacturing *Only the beginning of the beginning in the ME *Pakistan and Afghanistan not on our planet? *More Islam; less Islamism *China-more instability, slower growth, stuck in middle income *The eurozone, as we know it, is doomed *The U.S.: misgoverned and misinformed but economically resilient * Major transformations are in the works booming developing economies and technological marvels Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy Global Psychological Processes: Humiliation Fear Mistrust 2

3 What is a Sense of Humiliation? 1. Feeling disrespected 2. A loss of stature or image 3. An image change reflecting a decrease in what others believe about your stature 4. Induced shame 5. To reduce the pride or fail to recognize the dignity of another 6. An event perceived to cause loss of honor and induce shame 7. Feeling powerless 8. Being unjustly forced into a degrading position 9. Ridicule, scorn, contempt or other treatment at the hands of others Unemployment is Humiliation The New York Times, February 15,

4 Fear/Anxiety Edvard Munch Mistrust 7 4

5 Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy Energy Oil Production Becomes Less Crude 9 5

6 Highest Auto Penetration Rate Country Automobiles /1000 People United States 765 Luxembourg 686 Australia 619 Italy 566 Germany 546 Japan 543 Switzerland 516 France 491 Spain 471 United Kingdom 426 Lowest Auto Penetration Rate Country Automobile s/1000 People Afghanistan 0 Nigeria 1 Ethiopia 1 Bangladesh 2 Pakistan 8 India 12 Egypt 30 Morocco 53 Ukraine 98 China 128 6

7 North American Shale Beds Shale Gas in China 7

8 Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy Middle East Political Instability Muhammad Bouaziz (17 December 2010) 8

9 Why Are These Men Smiling? Still Smiling? 9

10 Saudi King Abdullah The Saudi Players 10

11 Ayatollah Khamene i, President Ahmadinejad, IRGC General Jaafari Iranian Missile Program 21 Iran s Developing Nuclear and Missile Program, CSIS,

12 Israeli Settlements wiki/file:west_bank Palestinian Leaders Khaled Meshal, Ismail Hainyeh, Mahmoud Abbas 12

13 Divided America Should the U.S. Recognize Palestine as an Independent State Yes No Don t Know Total Total 42% 26% 32% 100% Republican Democrat Independent September 20, 2011; Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy Pakistan - Afghanistan 13

14 The Pakistani Sandwich Sirajuddin Haqqani "The Haqqani network... acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter- Services Intelligence Agency." Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, September 26,

15 Pakistani Beliefs Afghanistan Bride Foreign Policy, May 19,

16 Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy Islam Qaddafi at the End of his Rope? The Devil Jews Are Responsible! 16

17 More Islam Prime Minister and Mrs. Ermine Eredogan 17

18 Geo-political Risks To The Global Economy China Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang

19 The New York Times, July 7, 2011 Shanghai

20 Shanghai Up to $1.9 Trillion of New Consumption? 20

21 Responses to the Malacca Dilemma 21

22 The Navy 42 But Repression Is Increasing 22

23 Geo-political Risks To The Global Economy Europe Principal To Be Paid From July 2011 to July 2012 (light) Plus budget Deficits (dark) For Euro Area Members As % of 2011 Estimated GDP 45 on the Brink, Policy Brief, Peterson Institute for International Economics, July

24 U.S. Federal Debt Geo-political Risks To The Global Economy The Good News 24

25 Does The World Need a Miracle? The Miracle? GROSS DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE ON RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT MILLIONS CURRENT PPP P$ OECD Main Science & Technology Indicators

26 One of the The Miracles The Economist, August 20, The True Size of Africa 26

27 African Futures Angola 1.6% 7.8% 10.5% Botswana D.R. Congo Republic of Congo Ethiopia Kenya Mali Mozambique Niger Nigeria Rwanda Tanzania Uganda Zimbabwe Asian Futures Bangladesh 6.0% 6.3% 6.6% Cambodia China India Indonesia Lao P.D. R Malaysia Myanmar Philippinesi Sri Lanka Thailand Vietnam

28 Latin America Futures Costa Rica 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% Dominican Republic Panama Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Peru Geo-political Risks To The Global Economy One Last Middle Eastern Stories Like All of Them -- Amazing 28

29 Sister and Brother Flexible Packaging Association Geo-Political Risks To The Global Economy October 5,