Highly skill migration

Transcription

1 Highly skill migration Summer School EUI, 2013 Alessandra Venturini University of Turin CARIM, EUI 1

2 Migration:definition Who are the migrants? International migrants or Internal migrants Boundaries In Africa were imposed by international treaty Sudan Egypt Difficult to control 2

3 Reason to migrate Economic Reasons Refugees Family reunification Students Tourists 3

4 The debate on Higly Skilled Focus on international labour migrant The policies of the destination countries Point system, EC Directive on Blue card and the effect on the origin country On povery, growth, Government fiscal balance Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 4

5 Education as proxy of skill Migration is a selective process In the past health was a key charateristics because the work was manual And migrants had a longer life expentancy (Sermet C., Laurier D., Khlat M., 1998; P. Fargues 2009) Now education is easing the emigration by increasing the probability of success of the emigration and by reducing the cost

6 1.Stylized facts on Skilled migration HS migrants have increased Tertiary education has increased 20 million tertiary educated immigrants reside in the OCDE countries 10 million of those stem from the OCDE countries Almost 80% of all highly skilled immigrants in the OCDE live in US,AUS,CA,UK and NZ Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 6

7 1.Stylized facts on Skilled migration Few OECD countries gain, most OECD countries lose HS individuals Only US,CA an AUS are net gainers Inflows of HS >outflows of HS The EU countries loosers (Exceptions BE, LX, SWI, NOR) Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 7

8 Stock of Immigrants Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Stock of migrants by origin country in main destination areas in 2000 (Source: Doqcuier & Marfouk) Africa Arab Gulf Australia, USA Canada, New Zeland EU Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Jordan Syria OPT Lebanon Sudan Countries Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal 8

9 90.00% Share of highly skilled migrants by country of Robert origin to Schuman main destination Centre areas for in Advanced 2000 Studies (Source: Consortium Docquier for Applied & Marfook) Research on International Migration - CARIM 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% Australia, USA Canada, New Zeland ARAB GULF Africa EU 0.00% Algeria Chad Egypt Jordan Lebanon Libya Mali Mauritania Morocco Niger OPT Senegal Sudan Syria Tunisia 9

10 Immigrants are even more concentrated at the top of skill distribution Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 10

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12 Why HS Migrants are mainly going to USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand? Legislation Migration policy-point system Economic structure of destination countries- HS jobs available Wage premium- USA High wage 5 times low wage France and Netherland 2.9, Demark and Switzerland 2.7 Belgium and Sweden 2.4 Education system Language 12

13 Both destination and sending countries are in search of skills for similar reasons Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 13

14 2.Destination countries are in search of skilled migrants becuase they have a fiscal deficit and an aging population: Favour growth (Brucker et al. 2011) Migration is greasing the wheels of the EU economy, but HS migration is pulling the wheels of the EU No welfare costs Easier social integration Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 14

15 Immigration affect growth and innovation by Factor proportion effect: Higher share of skilled workers can increase average labour productivity and, hence, GDP per capita level (level effect) Physical capital accumulation: High skilled immigration can trigger complementary investment in physical capital, which (i) increases economic growth for transitional period, and (ii) increases GDP per capita level in steady state Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 15

16 Technological progress: Higher share of skilled workers and/or diversity can increase total factor productivity level or rate of technological progress, and, hence, GDP level or, even better, rate of GDP per capita growth forever Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 16

17 Y= A (H L) 1-a Kª A Tecnology H Human capital L Labour K Capital

18 The emprical research had reached important results Spatial correlation approach: Uses variance of high skilled foreigner share or national diversity across regions and regress this against levels and growth rates of productivity and GDP (e.g. Niebuhr et al., 2007, Ottaviano/Peri, 2006) Growth accounting approach: Uses variance of total factor productivity growth, capital growth and employment growth across countries and time to identify via which channels immigration affects GDP per capita growth (Ortega/Peri, 2009; Brücker et al., 2011) Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 18

19 Summary findings of Bruker Immigration increases labour force participation rate Immigration increases employment rate substantially Immigration increases capital stock disproportionally such that capital stock per capita increases The higher the share of high skilled immigrants, the higher are these effects But: we do not find a significant impact of immigration and the share of high-skilled immigrants on total factor productivity growth, and, hence, on the long-run growth rate of the economy Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 19

20 If the destination countries could choose they would prefer HS migrants Even if not all the migrants HS are doing HS jobs. And the Blue card directive is following this line. Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 20

21 C---Effects in origin country 1. Population 2. Growth, increase in physical capital per worker 3. Brain drain and brain gain 4. Remittances-poverty and labour force participation 21

22 Type of migration 1 Permanent Temporary Seasonal Circular Return migrants 22

23 Brain drain and brain gain Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies The link between migration and growth in sending countries is however quite complex. First, if the best will live the country, total human capital will decline (implying a lower growth path, less foreign direct investment and remittances are not enough to compensate for it). Second, migrants may return home after having acquired a set of productive skills with a beneficial impact on the growth prospects of their home country. 23

24 Finally, the policy bias in host countries toward skilled flows may not necessarily penalize sending countries. As argued most recently by Stark (1999, 2001), the incentive to acquire skills may be strengthened by the prospect of being able to migrate. Even in the presence of a brain drain, therefore, the average education level of those left behind in the home country may be higher than otherwise and this will induce a higher growth path and attract foreign investment. 24

25 In this revisionist approach to the analysis of the brain drain, skilled migration may turn into a brain gain even if no account is taken of the potentially positive effects on the home country of remittances and return migration 25

26 The Brain Drain Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Migration rates by educational attainments (percentage of host country s educational group) To the US To the OECD Origin country Secondary educ. Tertiary educ. Secondary educ. Tertiary educ. Korea Philippines Ghana Uganda Domin. Rep Guatemala Colombia Mexico Source: Carrington and Detragiache (1998) 26

27 A case study on High skilled migration From the MENA and SSA and few Eastern Countries *Destination 27

28 Stock of Immigrants Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Stock of migrants by origin country in main destination areas in 2000 (Source: Doqcuier & Marfouk) Africa Arab Gulf Australia, USA Canada, New Zeland EU Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Jordan Syria OPT Lebanon Sudan Countries Chad Mali Mauritania Niger Senegal 28

29 How many The number And the measure of Brain drain Share of HSM of total HS (at home and abroad) 29

30 Fig.4.2 Share of migrants to home Robert labour Schuman force Centre by skills for Advanced Studies Consortium around for 2000 Applied Research on International Migration - CARIM (Source: Doqcuier & Marfouk) Algeria Chad Egypt Jordan Lebanon Libya Mali Mauritania Morocco Niger OPT Senegal Total All - Prim All - Sec All - Ter Brain Drain Sudan Syria Tunisia 30

31 4. Brain drain Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Fig.1.6 Share of migrants to home labour force by skills in 2000 (Source:Docquier-Marfouk, 2006) 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Total All - Ter Brain Drain 31

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34 Why HS migration takes place? 1. Demand side 2. Supply side 3. Mismatch between Supply and Demand (HS supply > HS Demand) (quality of education & social versus hard sciences) On the Supply side: Economic reasons A) Unemployment among HS B) Reduction of real income per capita (Moldova) C) Large informal sector (60% in Egypt, 77-87% Mauritania) D) Decline in the size of public sector (Egypt, Morocco) E) Low return on tertiary education (Egypt) On the Supply side: Political reasons Political instability in Palestine 34

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37 Is the educational policy appropriate? Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 37

38 Over-education & Over-occupation Migrants in 3 level of education: low, medium and high level of job-skill: low, medium, high 38

39 Table 6.1Distribution of occupation/education level to EU27 occupation level education level COUNTRIES Low Interm ediate High COUNTRIES Low Interm ediate High ALGERIA ALGERIA CHAd CHAd EGYPT EGYPT JORDAN JORDAN LEBANON LEBANON LYBIA LYBIA MALI MALI MAURITANIA MAURITANIA MOROCCO MOROCCO NIGER NIGER PSE PSE SENEGAL SENEGAL SUDAN SUDAN SYRIA SYRIA TUNISIA TUNISIA Mean Mean

40 Table 6.2 Distribution of occupation/education level to US, Australia, NZ and CANADA occupation level education level COUNTRIES Low Interm ediate High COUNTRIES Low Interm ediate High ALGERIA ALGERIA CHAd CHAd EGYPT EGYPT JORDAN JORDAN LEBANON LEBANON LYBIA LYBIA MALI MALI MAURITANIA MAURITANIA MOROCCO MOROCCO NIGER NIGER PSE PSE SENEGAL SENEGAL SUDAN SUDAN SYRIA SYRIA TUNISIA TUNISIA Mean Mean Source: Database on Immigrants in OECD countries (DIOC), around year

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42 Paradox: The American dream seems reversed, In Europe uneducated migrants can more easily upgrade 42

43 Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 43

44 Differences in EDUCATION among CARIM countries in: 1. Tertiary education 2. Quality of education 3. Investment in public/private education 4. Public expenditure 44

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46 1. Tertiary Education Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies 46

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49 Quality of the education Is the increasing number by reducing quality? Is the educational system adequate to the job matching? Quality more granted by private institutions Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 49

50 2. Quality of Education Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Percentage of enrollment in tertiary education by field of specialization: 1. Algeria (2007): 20% in Education, art and humanities 9% in Engineering & manufacture 6% in Health 2. Jordan (2007): 29% in Education, art and humanities 13% in Engineering & manufacture 14% in Health 2. Tunisia (2007): 21% in Education, art and humanities 11% in Engineering & manufacture 7% in Health 50

51 3. Public/private Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Demand for secondary education is not satisfied by the public sector and the private institutions fill this gap. Private enrollment: - Mali (2007): 50% in general programs & 76% in technical/vocational - Lebanon: 48% in general programs & 55% in technical/vocational - BUT Jordan: 11% in general programs & 2% in technical/vocational 51

52 4. Public expenditure Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies - Tunisia: 7% as % of GDP, 20% as % of Gov.Exp and 24% in tertiary as % of total educ. exp. - Lebanon: 2.5% as % of GDP, 10% as % of Gov.Exp and 25% in tertiary as % of total educ. exp. - And Chad: 2% as % of GDP, 10% as % of Gov.Exp and 18% in tertiary as % of total educ. exp.; 52

53 Increase in education As stand by solution in period of luck of employment (Palestine) Traditional project (Lebanon) Development strategy (Egypt) Value per se Sudan Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 53

54 Pragmatic approach Disinvesting in education is not an option But pushing also tecnical and vocational training is an option Make advantage of it Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 54

55 Robert Schuman Centre for for Advanced Studies Consortium for for Applied Research on on International Migration - - CARIM Effects of Highly skilled emigration Remittances reduce poverty, finance education, and development Return migrants and their engagement in education and training programmes Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 55

56 Evaluation OTP, Egypt Without migration too much pressure on the domestic labour market Lebanon Overproduction no restrain of development Jordan Economic growth stimulated by outmigration Syria Sudan Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 56

57 Emigration of highly skilled From the paper of the correspondent it is not easy to derive a clear picture, and to compare it with the previous one. Egypt migrants are more educated than non migrants, 40% of the emigrant to Saudi Arabia and 70% to Yemen are HSM Jordan 40%of the emigrants are highly educated, and more than non migrants, Lebanon even more Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 57

58 Empirical Model dho H a bn ( c 1) dhf H HO = stock of human capital in the origin country HF = the stock of human capital in the foreign country H = HO+HF the total human capital dho/h = change in the stock of human capital in the origin country dhf/h = change in the stock of human capital abroad 58

59 Empirical Research Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Table 4.1 : Estimation result from BDR and EN regressions Log change in human capital stocks BDR (2008) EN (2008) Faini (2003) Enrollment rates in logs BDR (2009) Tertiary education Secondary education Tertiary education Secondary education constant *** *** 1.695*** (0.2) (1.27) (11.71) (5.82) (3.03) (1.60) ln(p90) ** * (2.22) (0.56) (1.79) (2.02) ln(1+p90) 1.261*** 0.563*** (3.02) (2.71) ln(h90) *** (6.38) SSAD 0.386*** 0.668*** 0.619*** (4.13) (3.58) (6.8) LATD (0.59) DENS ** (0.99) (3.38) REM (1.14) log(se90) 1.092*** (11.03) log(pri90) 0.883*** (8.63) log(pub) *** (0.07) (3.36) Income per cap 9.75*** 21.5*** (5.9) (7.32) R Hausman OLS OLS OLS OLS Jansen N_obs Variables : p90 = skilled emigration rate in H90 = ex ante proportion of educated. SSAD = sub-saharan African dummy, LATD = dummy for Latin American countries, DENS90 = population density in REM 90 = workers' remittances as % of GDP, SE90=enroll BDR(2009) is a IV regression with instruments: population size and stock of migrants in OECD countries. 59

60 Results of Brain Gain BDM2009 Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Effect of Highly Skilled emigration on total domestic Labour Force Countries experiencing beneficial brain drain Effect of Highly Skilled emigration on Skilled labour force Effect of Highly Skilled emigration on proportion of skilled LF Brain Gain Libya % Egypt % Jordan % Syria % Turkey % Chad % Sudan % Niger % Mali % Countries experiencing a detrimental brain drain Tunisia % Senegal % Algeria % Morocco % Lebanon % from: Beine, Docquier, Rapoport 2008 p

61 Conclusions Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies 1. SEM & SSA countries are in different phases of human capital development. Middle Eastern countries are in a very advanced phase with level of tertiary enrollment similar to Southern European countries SSA countries (Sudan included) are only now engaged in building up secondary and tertiary education Maghreb and Egypt are in between these two phases with strong recent investment in Algeria, Tunisia and also Egypt. Nevertheless, the emigration of tertiary educated is a common phenomenon but proportional to the stock of tertiary educated. 61

62 Conclusions Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies 2. Europe is not as successful at attracting the highly skilled as the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand for four reasons: - larger availability of skilled job offers in the second group which also attract European skilled workers - a wage premium which is a magnet for all skilled workers - the languages spoken which are very diffused - selective migration policy which eases access for tertiary educated workers The last reason explains the over-education and over-occupation of migrants in non EU countries which creates an excess of over educated larger than in the European ones. 62

63 Conclusions Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Empirical tests show that HS migration - is not relevant in SSA countries which are in the initial phase of human capital development - but it concerns more the Maghreb countries being in an intermediate stage of human capital development - While for Eastern Mediterranean countries, which are instead in a very advanced phase of human capital development the brain drain is an important but inevitable phenomenon induced by the political constraints of the area. 63

64 Migration is good or bad for sending countries? tentative answer Migration is good only if emigration is just a phase in its economic development 64

65 Which are the conditions that favour a good impact of emigration for sending countries? Share of emigrant on native population (consumption and labour force) Fertility The level of development of the sending area. 65

66 John Bibson David McKenzie, 2011, Eight Questions about brain drain, Policy Research Working Paper 5668 F.Doquier and H.Rapoport, Globalization, brain drain and development, UCL D.P S. Commander, M. Kangasniemi, L.A.Winters, 2003, Brain drain: Curse or boon? A Survey of the Literature, IZA D.P.809. Brukers et al. 2011, The Battle for Brain, FRD web. Michael Clemens 2009, Skill Flow: A Fundamental Reconsideration of Skilled-Worker Mobility and Development, Human Development Research Paper n.2009/08. Venturini A., Narazani E, 2011, Higly Skilled Migrants in the SEM and Subsharan Africa, AN.CARIM Delphine Perrin 28/06/ :19 66