Policy Coherence for Migration and Development

Transcription

1 Policy Coherence for Migration and Development Prof. Louka T. Katseli, Director OECD Development Centre United Nations International Symposium on Migration and Development Turin, Italy June

2 1.Challenges for policy making and the need for policy coherence 2.Putting policy coherence into practice 3.Migration and development policies: Which way forward? 2

3 Common Policy Challenges for OECD and Developing Countries Cope and adjust effectively to demographic pressures Secure sustainable growth, increase employment and reduce poverty and inequality Mitigate risks and illegality; promote human security Improve management of increased labour mobility and migrants integration Promote innovation through brain gain and cope with brain drain 3

4 Policy Coherence for Migration and Development What is the Rationale? Economic development in countries of origin influence the extent and patterns of migration Migration impacts on economic development Migrants are important stakeholders for growth and development Partnerships with sending countries needed to manage migration flows more effectively 4

5 Policy coherence for migration and development: A Definition The pursuit of win-win opportunities for both host and sending countries through the systematic promotion of mutuallyreinforcing policy actions 5

6 Policy Coherence for Migration and Development: What is needed? Better understanding of migration patterns Careful consideration of the interlinkages of migration and development processes and policies Improved coordination of migration, trade and development cooperation policies 6

7 How can Policy Coherence for Migration and Development be put into practice? An EU Perspective 7

8 Europe lags behind the US in attracting highly skilled migrants. 15 Non-OECD OECD origin 10 Millions 5 Low Low Middle High Middle High 0 Europe America Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants,

9 Europe s s highly skilled migrants come mainly from Africa <2% <5% <10% <20% >20% Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants,

10 Low skilled migrants to Europe are drawn from higher income countries Log low skill emigration rate to EU Log GDP per capita 2000 Data Source: OECD Database on Expatriates and Immigrants,

11 Geography, history and politics matter: Geographic proximity, cultural and colonial ties explain 20%-30% of variation in the share of total migrant stocks depending on skill. Three migration models coexist within the EU 15 driven by: Historical/language ties: Benelux, France, Ireland, Portugal, Spain,,UK Geographic proximity: Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy Political Attitudes: Denmark, Finland, Sweden 11

12 1.Challenges for policy making and the need for policy coherence 2.Putting policy coherence into practice 3.Migration and development policies: Which way forward? 12

13 Analysis of migration-development interlinkages needed The migration-cycle : a stage-based experience Migrants and sending countries go through stages Exit stage Adjustment stage Consolidation stage Networking stage Repatriation Stage Stages might be skipped and length of each stage varies 13

14 Impact effects of migration on development vary By stage of the migration cycle Between short-run and long run Depending on migrant characteristics and local conditions, especially in labor and credit markets Depending on policies of both host and sending countries and behavioural responses driven by incentives 14

15 Changes in Labour supply, remittances and productivity determine impact effects Y & = L& + Y/N + R& Growth= labour supply changes+ productivity effects + transfer effects Labour: L & Productivity: Transfers: Y / N R & G row th: Y & Poverty Inequality Exit Stage <0 <0 0? 0 >0 >0 Adjustment Stage?0??0?0?0?0 Consolidation Stage?0 >0 >0 >0 <0 <0 Networking Stage =0 >0?0 >0 <0 <0? R epatriation/ Immigration/ Circulation Stage >0? <0?? >0? 15

16 Low-skilled migration has typically positive impact effects on poverty reduction Without surplus labour: Employment and income gains to low skilled natives Output declines Long run restructuring With surplus labour: Employment and income gains to low skilled natives Small/no effect on output In both cases: Strong regional effects Ripple effects depend on domestic labour market integration/internal migration Positive impact on poverty 16

17 Brain drain: is this a loss? What is lost? Spillover benefits Potential tax revenue Invested fiscal revenues for education/training Delivery of key services( Health-care, education, agricultural extension, administration) Losses however depend on: Quality of service delivery systems Rate of utilisation of skilled personnel Replacement options 17

18 Remittances : who benefits? The poor if: Poorer families migrate Poor overseas migrants remit Both components depend on nature of migration regime (migration policies of host countries), duration of absence, family separation, intention to return Migration of highly skilled who settle permanently abroad with their families bring little by way of remittances to the home country 18

19 Where migrants intend to return home, remittances per migrant can be very high GCC US $ EU E Asia NICs US Other OECD Developing Reg. 0 Source: IMF Balance of Payments Statistics and UN Trends in Migrant Stock ;2000 data 19

20 Remittances: a positive driver for development Effects depend on migration regime Poverty reduction (e.g. Botswana, Lesotho, Greece, Malawi, Mexico, Mozambique,) Insurance against risk (e.g. Senegal, Mali) Finance additional education (El Salvador) Multiplier effects quite large (Mexico and other LDCs) Small deterioration of price competitiveness (real exchange appreciation) Risk : transfer economies 20

21 1.Challenges for policy making and the need for policy coherence 2.Putting policy coherence into practice 3.Migration and development policies: Which way forward? 21

22 Analysis of EU Migration-Development Interlinkages : What Implications? Effects of migration on development depend critically on migration patterns and capacity of sending country to adjust Magnitude and composition of migration are determined by admission criteria of host countries and economic conditions and security at home Win-win opportunities remain uneploited if migration and development policies are not jointly considered 22

23 Migration, trade, investment, development cooperation policies :Coordination Needed AID: Growth and poverty reduction INVESTMENT: Expands Productive Capabilities MIGRATION: Enhances Income Opportunities TRADE: Expands Consumption Possibilities AID POLICY --- promotes infrastructure and human-capital investment, reduces investment costs capacity building, market integration in home country promotes trade capacity building in LDCs and demand for rich- country goods and services FOREIGN INVESTMENT POLICY raises human and physical capital stock in LDC; promotes local enterprise development --- expands employment opportunities in LDCs enhances linkages to foreign markets; creates business networks; increases export capacity; upgrades quality standards MIGRATION POLICY induces remittances, lowers unemployment, can contribute to skill formation, productivity increases encourages brain circulation and technology transfers; expands savings --- encourages trading opportunities and networks TRADE POLICY promotes growth enhances market access increases wages

24 Migration and development policies: which way forward? Can aid slow migration? Not really The links from aid to growth to migration are weak at best Even if aid spurs growth, migration might rise as a result (migration hump) 24

25 OECD policies need to be revisited: Information on migration flows and patterns : integrated migration monitoring systems can be developed Legislative bottlenecks and disincentives for seasonal and temporary workers should be removed Circular migration arrangements associated with multi-annual visas should be encouraged and properly managed Diaspora networks need to be effectively engaged 25

26 Also. Training foreign students and extending short-term remunerated training and work arrangements Partnership arrangements to link recruitment of personnel with capacity building and replenishment; Guidelines for recruitment of highly skilled professionals needed OECD trade policies have substantial impact on living standards in low income countries 26

27 Migration needs to be integrated into PRSPs: Migrants are major stakeholders for development Macroeconomic Management Changes in tax revenue Changes in expenditures Transfer systems vs remittances Human Resource Management Incentives for temporary stay abroad (e.g. advanced seniority in public sector post) Deployment of skills Replenishment Education Policies Financing higher education (loans vs grants) Adapting curricula to local needs Accreditation of private colleges and training facilities 27

28 Moreover: Facilitate labour-market integration through: Improved infrastructure Remove barriers to internal migration Regional agreements (e.g regional passports) Remove barriers to labour-market entry of returning workers ODA can be used as a catalyst to diffuse benefits of migration and facilitate adjustment through: Promotion of infrastructure Improvements of education and health systems Capacity building Co-development projects Fellowships and training arrangements 28

29 Private sector needs to be engaged : Remittances are large, stable and growing ODA, 2004: $ 79.5bn Remittances, 2004: $126bn Cost of transferring money is still high Partnerships between OECD and local banks to improve access to banking services Innovative financial instruments can enhance impact of remittances on local development (PPPs, municipality bonds, securitization etc) 29

30 Last but not least: The international community needs to consider the scope of GATS Mode 4 to encompass low-skilled workers 30

31 THANK YOU 31