Managing migratory flows in the MENA region

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1 Managing migratory flows in the MENA region Jason Gagnon Second Meeting of the Middle East and North Africa Regional Chapter of the Parliamentary Network on the World Bank & IMF 7 November 2017 Rabat, Morocco

2 The share of migrants in the world is progressively increasing Stock of international migrants, Share of World population International migrant stock 3, ,3 3, ,2 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,9 2,8 50 2,9 2,8 2,8 2,9 2,7 2, ,5 Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)

3 Developed countries are increasingly attracting migrants from developing countries Migrants from developing countries as a share of total migrants developing => developed developing => developing Source: Authors calculations based on United Nations (2016)

4 MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration

5 MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration

6 MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration

7 MENA: a region with a wide experience in migration Remittances as a percentage of GDP (%), 2016 Source: World Bank Annual Remittances Database, Inflows (updated as of October 2017)

8 How does economic development affect emigration? Emigration rate An inverse relationship between development and migration? GDP/capita

9 How does economic development affect emigration? Emigration rate Economic development does NOT translate into a decrease in emigration At least in the short and medium term GDP/capita

10 The mobility transition curve in 2010 Note: The sample includes 143 origin countries and 81 destination countries Source: OECD (2016), Perspectives on Global Development 2017

11 What are the implications of the mobility transition curve in terms of public policies? Emigration rate More trade More FDI More ODA GDP/capita

12 Not all the countries follow the same migration trajectory Emigration rate MT2 MT1 MT3 GDP/capita

13 Not all the countries follow the same migration trajectory Emigration rate Country characteristics (border, language, colonial ties ) Networks Migration policies Sectoral policies (agriculture, labour market, education, social protection ) MT2 MT1 MT3 GDP/capita

14 Higher public social expenditures reduce the rate of emigration Relation between the share of people planning to emigrate and public social expenditures as a share of GDP Source: OECD (2017), Interrelations between Public Policies, Migration and Development

15 Public policies and international co-operation can help change the migration trajectory of a country Government employment agencies Vocational training Agricultural subsidies Insurancebased programmes Conditional cash transfers Government subsidies / Tax exemptions Financial training programmes Social protection and health mechanisms

16 Public policies can contribute to enhancing the development impact of migration In origin countries Emigration acts as a safety valve for the labour market Diasporas are an enabler for social development Remittances represent a source of finance for development Brain circulation helps strengthen human capital & innovation Invest in the development of skills in origin countries to foster the accumulation of human capital Help reduce remittance costs and invest in financial training Fund diaspora projects in countries of origin Develop return programmes oriented towards productive investment

17 Public policies can contribute to enhancing the development impact of migration In destination countries Immigration helps reduce skills mismatches Immigrants contribute to financing social protection systems Immigrants expand the domestic market Immigration can lead to increased innovation & entrepreneurship Support education and invest in social protection & health services to foster the integration of immigrants in destination countries

18 Conclusion The objective is not to say that public policies should aim at curbing migration flows But rather give people the option to migrate by choice, not by force This implies generating more opportunities in home countries One major challenge for policy makers is strengthening their public policies It is also important to acknowledge that migration is a driver of development not only in origin, but also in destination countries

19 2006 The OECD Development Centre s work on migration

20 Thank you Follow us (Social Media):

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