Planning in the Context of a New New Zealand: Demographic and Economic Challenges

Transcription

1 Planning in the Context of a New New Zealand: Demographic and Economic Challenges PAUL SPOONLEY Pro Vice-Chancellor College of Humanities and Social Sciences NZPI Conference 22 March 2018

2 In 10 Years 2 out of every 5 NZers will live in Auckland Asian communities will outnumber Māori There will be more people aged over 65 than 0-15 years of age Major shifts in nature and location of employment

3 In 20 Years More New Zealanders will live in Auckland Two-thirds of New Zealand s regions will be smaller and older New Zealand will be even more ethnically diverse Very different world of work

4 Demographic Regional Divergence 21 st Century Disruption Globalisation Digitisation/ Automation

5 #1 Demography: Implications for Planning? Structural ageing of population (and workforce?) Sub-replacement fertility (2.1 births per woman, now 1.7) Delayed births (30 years plus) Employment vs children

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7 Fertility Rate (Per 1000) Bay of Plenty All Regions High Fertility, High Natural Increase

8 Ratio 0-15 : 65+ Bay of Plenty ,200 (21.3%) ,200 (18.9%) NZ % %

9 #2 Demography: Implications for Planning? More 65+ than 0-14 year olds Fewer entering workforce and fewer workers Out-migration from regions of young adults Challenge of future labour and skills supply

10 Population Entering Workforce (15-29 yr olds) % % % School leaving Age , ,000-28,000

11 What Works? Youth/Young Adults Seamless boundaries Immigration Kawerau/Matamata-Piako (Silver Fern Farms) Regional/industrial policies (recruitment) Welcoming communities

12 Changing Demand in Labour Markets Advanced economies 40-50% of 2016 jobs will not exist in 2026 New jobs will emerge Less certainty in the end of careers and life time employment In the 21 st century, most workers can expect to do 5-8 different jobs over a working life

13 Local Abilities To: Identifying future skills requirements Industry co-ordination? Education/training co-ordination? Alignment between employers and education/training agencies?

14 #3 Demography: Implications for Planning? Immigration Major source of skills supply (60% approved as skilled immigrants) Population replacement (young, educated) Connecting with Asia Income (Export Education)

15 Permanent and Long Term Arrivals (February 2018) PALT 130,000 Net Gain 70,000 Temporary Visas 209,000 Largest net gain: China (Residence Visas/Study Visas) India/UK (Skills Visas) Philippines

16 New Ethnic Diversity/Landscapes Ethnoburbs Ethnic Precincts Second Generation Recognition/participation?

17 A Future Aotearoa Hyper-Diversity ( ) All 0-14 Yrs European/Pākehā 75% - 66% 71.6% % Māori 16% - 18% 25% - 30% Asian 12% - 22% 12% - 21% Pasifika 8% - 10% 13% - 18%

18 Immigration: Local Challenges A regionally/city specific immigrant approach? A greater role for employers? Welcoming communities/ employers? Reflecting diversity in community/ institutional practice

19 #4 Demography: Implications for Planning? Regional Divergence Two-thirds of regions will experience populations stagnation or decline Agglomeration effects (Auckland) Immigration + fertility + ageing

20 Migration Immigration: Bay of Plenty Domestic Migration ( ) Immigration Out-migration 24,987 In-migration 26,985 +1, Population projections , , ,000

21 What Works? Rejuvenating local towns/economies EDAs Northland Inc Venture Taranaki Venture Southland Key elements Local-central government relations Effective local political leadership Harnessing new technologies Attract/retain key people Environmental quality Community regeneration

22 Rural/Regional Opportunities and Challenges Retain (young adults, skilled workers) Recruit (immigrants, young adults) Maintain services (schools, medical facilities) Train (future labour/skills supply) Positive stories (why live in your community?)

23 In the Next Decade The growth in 65+ will account for most of population growth in 56 out of 67 territorial authorities 65+ will be larger than 0-14 age group More workers will retire than enter the workforce Immigration will contribute more to population growth if it continues to remain high Asian communities will be larger than the Maori community

24 People and Planning Challenges What are your people policies? How do you deal with population stagnation? What are the long-term economic trends? Do you have smart decline policies?

25 How should planning and planners respond to these changes?