People/ Demographics Addendum Evidence Update

Transcription

1 People/ Demographics Addendum Evidence Update May 2015

2 Introduction/Context An initial evidence base for the Waikato Spatial Plan was completed in 2013 (Phase 1). This suite of documents included: Demographic projections for the region; an Infrastructure inventory; and reports on the four well beings (Environmental, Economic, Social & Cultural). Headline strengths, challenges and opportunities were identified from this evidence as the basis for developing the Waikato Spatial Plan. A number of new information sources have been identified since the completion of Phase 1 necessitating an update of the evidence to ensure that the original conclusions are still accurate and relevant. This has meant a series of short Addendum reports for each of the original reports listed above, as well as a new short report titled Regional Connectivity. Evidence Update Phase 1 Summary The Phase 1 Waikato Region Demographic Profile (Jackson, NIDEA, 2013) was a key piece of research to identify and quantify population change happening within the Waikato Region. The Phase 1 work also undertook population projections which highlighted the following: The Waikato is experiencing age driven growth, with more than four-fifths of the regions projected growth to be from the age category of 65+ years; Only Hamilton and the Waikato District will not experience absolute or relative decline in the period to While the population of Hamilton will age, it is more slowly than elsewhere, as the more youthful Maori, Pacific Island and Asian populations being more visible. Lower fertility/smaller family sizes, increasing longevity and increasing mobility will alter housing demand/type. Every year for the next 15 years, a successively larger cohort will retire and will be replaced by a successively smaller cohort at labour market entry age, driving an increase in competition for labour and presumably labour costs. The summary of the Phase 1 evidence indicated the following strengths, challenges and opportunities for people in the Waikato: Strengths Waikato region is relatively youthful compared to other regions Steady regional growth overall Net migration for some areas Hamilton City growth Waikato Demographics Opportunities for the Waikato Spatial Plan Challenges Ageing driven growth Low fertility/smaller family sizes Population waves and troughs passing through education and other services Tightening of the labour market Transiting from growth to decline Ageing population changing the nature of work and maximising the potential of older workers, growing consumer market for older people, opportunities for community participation

3 Changing demands for goods and services Age-related movement towards services (i.e. the elderly moving to Hamilton, Waikato and Waipa districts) Investing in youth to ensure they have the right skills Increasing cultural diversity Have there been any significant changes to the evidence since the completion of Phase 1? Since, the preparation of that profile, Statistics NZ has released the results of the 2013 Census, which in turn NIDEA have used to update their population projection work. The latest projections (NIDEA, May 2015) now uses 2013 fertility/mortality, improved migration assumptions and modelling that takes into account the recent rises in net migration. It is important to note that these NIDEA 2015 figures are very recent and will be peer reviewed over upcoming months, they are however, technically considered to be more accurate than the 2014 data which have previously been circulated. The table below includes the latest population projections (NIDEA 2015). Population projections for the Waikato Region, Thames Coromandel Hauraki Waikato District Matamata Piako Hamilton Waipa Otorohanga South Waikato Waitomo Taupo Rotorua (part) Waikato Region ,340 29,108 28,514 22,197 18,620 19,413 19,007 15,520 66,530 84, , ,370 32,910 36,087 38,314 38, , , , ,493 48,660 61,488 72,241 75,161 9,610 10,090 10,003 8,475 23,190 23,076 21,353 17,318 9,295 8,696 7,809 6,090 34,585 38,010 39,335 35,569 3,820 3,990 3,880 3, , , , ,259

4 The graph below illustrates the overall trends and changes over time (NIDEA 2015). Does this new information change the conclusions from Phase 1? Across the board, the population projections are now higher than the Phase 1 data and subsequent 2014 data. However, for the most part, the population trends are the same, with the majority of districts showing either sustained decline (Waitomo, South Waikato) or initially growing and then entering decline (Taupo, Otorohanga, Hauraki, Thames- Coromandel). The districts that are now expected to experience sustained growth are both Hamilton and the Waikato District, as initially projected, but now also Waipa and Matamata-Piako. The trends for Hamilton and Waikato also show a significantly increased level of growth in the period to Trend Sustained growth Initial growth followed by decline Sustained decline Districts Waikato District, Hamilton, Waipa, Matamata-Piako Otorohanga, Taupo, Hauraki, Thames-Coromandel South Waikato, Waitomo

5 Revised Strengths, Challenges and Opportunities Waikato Demographics Strengths Waikato region is relatively youthful compared to other regions Steady regional growth overall Net migration for some areas Hamilton City growth Challenges Ageing driven growth Low fertility/smaller family sizes Population waves and troughs passing through education and other services Tightening of the labour market Transiting from growth to decline Internationally, locally successful strategies to respond to population decline require access to regional or national level funding programmes or expertise 1. Within a country where there are other areas trying to cope with growth or decline, there will be competition for such resources. Ensuring that housing in the Waikato remains affordable to people of the Waikato, particularly in light of the migration of Auckland workers into parts of the northern Waikato and Hamilton. Opportunities for the Waikato Plan Research demonstrates that a mix of responses to population decline would be most likely to achieve successful outcomes. Such responses are primarily those which accept the projected changes and seek to manage the consequences, combined with those which attempt to stimulate growth (although not necessarily, population growth per se). The Waikato Plan, offers an opportunity to reform governance arrangements to enable countering or accepting responses (in relation to demographic change) to be implemented and successful 2. Ageing population changing the nature of work and maximising the potential of older workers, growing consumer market for older people, opportunities for community participation. Enhancing or developing local specialities or niche business, visitor and community opportunities. Changing demands for goods and services. Harnessing participation of local business, community and local government in responses to population changes 3. Opportunities to capitalise on wider growth pressures being experienced in Auckland by being an attractive place to live and work. Age-related movement towards services (i.e. the elderly moving to Hamilton, Waikato and Waipa districts). Investing in youth to ensure they have the right skills. Increasing cultural diversity. Develop actions around future housing supply to respond and adapt to demographic changes, such as ensuring sufficient land and infrastructure is available. Such actions should result in the provision of a mix of housing types and tenure. Initiatives to strengthen inter-linkages between the regions higher education establishments and their communities, and the business/innovation/agri-tech sector to help retain young professionals in the region and to boost economic activity. 1 McMillian, R., Strategic Interventions to Population Decline. Report commissioned by the Local Authority Shared Services (pg. 66) 2 McMillian, R., Strategic Interventions to Population Decline. Report commissioned by the Local Authority Shared Services (pg. 65) 3 McMillian, R., Strategic Interventions to Population Decline. Report commissioned by the Local Authority Shared Services (pg. 66)