Employment Growth by Skills and the Contribution of Migration: NZ. experience relative to Australia

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1 Employment Growth by Skills and the Contribution of Migration: NZ Employment experience by Contribution relative to Australia of Migrants: NZ experience relative to Australia Presented to the Pathways to Metropolis Conference Immigration Issues and Futures October 2012 Ram SriRamaratnam, Paul Merwood and Xintao Zhao

2 Material Covered in Presentation Permanent & Long-term (not temporary) migrants Total and Occupational Migration (categorised by Skills) Contribution of Migration (NZ vs AUST): To Population growth To Labour force To meet Skills in Demand Employment demand: level & growth by skills and degree of reliance on migration Changing emphasis on and sources of migrant skills & implications

3 Demand for Employment by Skills TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DEMAND Immigration Training Expansion demand Replacement demand GDP by industries Productivity by industries Retirement Migration

4 Occupations classified by Skills Highly skilled Skilled Semi skilled Elementary - Managers - Professionals - Technicians - Trades Workers - Assoc. Professionals - Service workers - Sales personnel - Clerical staff - Machinery operators - House-keepers - Labourers

5 Factors Driving NZ Migrant Flows to Australia

6 Migrant s Return Ratios ( ): Total & Occupational Flows between NZ and Australia

7 Contribution of Net Migration to Population Growth: Australia Averages % % % %

8 Share of Skill Stream in Migration: Australia Averages % % % %

9 Contribution of Net Migration to Population Growth: New Zealand Averages % % % %

10 Share of Business/Skill Migration: New Zealand Averages % % % %

11 Net Skilled Migration Flows to NZ: RoW (Gain) and Total (incl Australia)

12 Australian Net Skilled Migration: From All Sources

13 Australian Net Skilled Migration: From New Zealand

14 Historical Employment growth by Skills: Australia & New Zealand Changes ('000s') Shares % Highly Skilled % Skilled % Semi-Skilled 72 4% Elem Skilled 1, % Changes Shares 211,400 72% 33,400 11% 54,100 18% - 4,600-2% 294, %

15 Forecast Employment growth by Skills: Australia & New Zealand Australia ( ) DEEWR Forecasts Changes ('000's) Shares AAPC Highly Skilled % 1.7% Skilled % 1.7% Semi-Skilled % 1.2% Elem Skilled % 0.9% % 1.4% New Zealand ( ) MBIE-Labour Changes Shares AAPC Highly Skilled 48,886 40% 2.2% Skilled 32,613 27% 2.2% Semi-Skilled 21,289 17% 1.0% Elem Skilled 19,964 16% 2.0% 122, % 1.8%

16 Net Migration Contribution to Employment Growth New Zealand Australia Total- 1:10 Total- 1:4 Highly skilled- 1:5 Highly skilled- 1:3 Skilled- 1:10 Skilled- 1:6 Semi-skilled- 1:8 Semi-skilled- 1:16 Elementary- 1:50 Elementary- 1:10

17 Key source countries for Total & Skilled Migration to Aust: Changes over time

18 Key source countries for Total & Skilled Migration to NZ: Changes over time

19 Summary of Key Findings Migrants studied are those who were permanent and long-term (PLT) of working age by occupation/skill levels Trans-Tasman migration influenced by relative factors (Median Weekly Earnings) & Australian economic (GDP) growth Migrant s return ratios ranged between 20-60% and slightly (5-10%) higher for those of working age PLT compared to total PLT Migration contribution to Australian population growth (~45%) higher than for NZ (~25%) Share of Skill/Business stream in Australia (~50%) similar to NZ (~55%) over the past years but higher in recent years in Australia

20 Summary of Key Findings (Continued) Net migration flows from RoW to NZ is positive and highest for Highly Skilled followed by Semi-skilled; Total net migration flows to NZ incl Australia is positive for Highly skilled but has turned negative for others Net migration flows of Highly skilled and Skilled migrants to Australia is considerably higher than other categories of skills Net migration flows from NZ to Australia is dominated by Semi-skilled and Highly skilled migrants Recent employment growth by skills was the greatest for Highly skilled in Australia (~45%) and NZ (~70%) followed by Skilled & Semi-skilled 50% in Australia and 30% in NZ with very little growth in Elem Skills

21 Summary of Key Findings (Continued) Forecast employment growth (next 3-5 years) consists mainly of Highly skilled in Australia and NZ (~40%) followed by Semiskilled in Australia (30%) but Skilled (Trades) workers in NZ (27%) for earthquake rebuild Migration shares of employment growth by skills in NZ & Australia: NZ relied on migration across all skills for 10% (1:10) and Australia for 25% (1:4) of employment growth across all skills Highly skilled migration share of Highly skilled employment growth in New Zealand 20% (1:5) and in Australia 35% (1:3) Skilled migration share of Skilled employment growth in New Zealand 10% (1:10) and in Australia 35% (1:3) Semi-skilled migration share of Semi-skilled employment growth in New Zealand 12% (1:8) and in Australia 6% (1:16) Elementary skilled migration share of Elementary skilled employment growth in New Zealand 2% (1:50) and in Australia 10% (1:10) In Australia and NZ the source countries of skilled migrants changed over the past 8-10 years: China and India have increased their share while UK (Great Britain) large but lost share: New Zealand s share to Australia steady around 12% rising to 15%; Aust share in NZ minimal.