Richest Communi.es on Long Island and in Westchester Experiencing Demographic Collapse of Young Adult Workforce

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1 Richest Communi.es on Long Island and in Westchester Experiencing Demographic Collapse of Young Adult Workforce Background A Report by Alexander Roberts, Execu.ve Director Community Housing Innova.ons, Inc. February 25, 2014 For over 20 years, business and good government groups on Long Island and in Westchester County have warned of dire consequences of the exodus of their young workforce due to increasingly expensive single- family houses and suburbia s resistance to muldfamily housing. They call it the Brain Drain. The Long Island Index 2012 Profile Report noted that the number of young adults on Long Island had declined by 12 percent since 2000, far more than the declines of 6-8 percent in northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley and southwestern ConnecDcut. According to American Community Survey data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, the populadon loss of year olds since 2000 is percent in Nassau County, percent in Suffolk County, and percent in Westchester, which compares to a gain nadonwide of 2.76 percent. However, a closer look shows that the declines in these three coundes are far from uniform and the highest losses of year olds are concentrated in the most wealthy, least diverse municipalides. Losses in the year old cohort are generally smaller in the most exclusive suburbs but are sdll significant. The loss in Nassau County for year olds is 13.7 percent, 14.8 percent in Suffolk, and 14.4 percent in Westchester County. A Demographic Collapse? The greatest populadon losses of year olds since 2000, based upon the U.S. Census Bureau s American Community Survey ( ), are in the least diverse communides with the most expensive housing, which happen also to be those that have almost no affordable muldfamily housing. The exodus of mostly White and educated workers represents triple and even quadruple the county averages. Change In Age Cohort for Nassau and Suffolk Coun.es between 2000 and (ACS) Kings Point - 58% - 10% Westhampton - 57% - 45% 1

2 Oyster Bay (hamlet) - 51% - 25% Lloyd Harbor - 40% - 53% Smithtown Town - 33% - 20% Jericho - 33% - 21% Baldwin Harbor - 24% - 12% HunDngton Town - 26% - 19% Garden City - 22% - 29% Massapequa - 22% - 16% Great Neck Village - 21% - 28% Brookville - 20% - 45% Conversely, the losses among many lower income municipalides are lower than the county averages, with some showing gains: Wyandanch +12% + 2% Patchogue + 4% - 22% Hempstead Village - 1% - 7% Roosevelt - 3% - 5% Islip Town - 10% - 12% Young educated workers are exidng Westchester County s most exclusive suburbs at an even faster pace. Change in Westchester County from Rye - 63% - 16% Pound Ridge - 58% - 15% Lewisboro - 54% - 36% Scarsdale - 52% - 15% Somers - 46% - 21% Larchmont - 45% - 30% New Castle - 40% - 21% Yorktown Heights - 36% - 25% Bronxville - 23% - 28% Bedford - 21% - 18% *All of the above communides are named in the Westchester County housing discriminadon sejlement with HUD. 2

3 Westchester s cides and blue- collar villages have experienced much smaller declines and even some increases, including White Plains, which has embraced downtown housing development Peekskill + 8% - 14% White Plains + 6% - 9% Yonkers - 4% - 12% Port Chester - 8% - 1% New Rochelle - 9% - 14% Mount Vernon - 11% - 14% Mapping the Losses To find out the extent of the trend, we searched for census tracts in Nassau, Suffolk, and Westchester CounDes that had suffered losses of more than 20% of their year old populadons between the period of 2000 and the period of The shaded areas below indicate these census tracks, which are heavily concentrated in the most expensive and least diverse areas to live in Nassau and Western Suffolk CounDes. Map 1 3

4 Areas of losses (20% or greater) of year olds in Eastern Suffolk County: Map 2 Map 3 Of all three coun.es, northern Westchester shows the greatest concentra.on of census tracts with losses of 20 percent or more of year olds. 4

5 Map 4 Lower Westchester County: Scarsdale s loss of 52% of its year olds exemplifies the Brain Drain. Map 5 5

6 Residen.al Racial Segrega.on Long Island and Westchester County suburbs experienced explosive growth stardng in the late 1940 s and 1950 s, at a Dme when discriminadon against minorides was enshrined in federal housing policy. Banks would not lend to African- Americans in the White suburbs because the Federal Housing AdministraDon only offered mortgages to non- mixed developments. In Levijown, for example, the buying agreement signed by all who purchased homes stated that the property could not be used or rented by any individuals other than those of the Caucasian race. In 1968, the Fair Housing Act made such discriminadon unlawful. However, the use of so- called exclusionary zoning, i.e., using local zoning to restrict development of muldfamily apartments, has had the effect of maintaining residendal segregadon. By confining development to single family homes, the most expensive towns and villages are rendered unaffordable to African- American and Hispanic families, whose median incomes are about half that of Whites. As Nassau, Suffolk and Westchester CounDes have lost propordonately higher numbers of their young, White working populadons, they have grown more diverse. However, residendal segregadon in the high income communides has only slightly abated because of the lack of affordable rental opdons. While racial discriminadon was a sharp tool, exclusionary zoning is a blunt instrument that affects all young families, regardless of race or ethnicity. Making the Connec.on If we make lack of African- Americans in a community- - say less than five percent- - a proxy for lack of diversity, the correladon between a loss of youth and lack of diversity becomes all the more striking. Maps of census tracts that have lost more than 20% of their year olds since 2000 (shown above) are strikingly similar to the maps showing census tracts that are less than five percent African- American. 6

7 Census tracts in Nassau and Suffolk Coun.es which are 1) less than 5% African- American and 2) have experienced least a 20% loss of year olds since Map 6 Eastern Suffolk County Map 7 7

8 Census tracts in Westchester County which are 1) less than 5% African- American and 2) have experienced at least a 20% loss of year olds since Map 8 Map 9 8

9 Where are the year- olds going? While we do not know exactly where affluent suburbia s young adults are going, we have clues. Studies of Millennials (those born ) indicate they prefer lively urban environments to suburbs, rental housing, and are more comfortable with racial diversity. In its September 2013 report for the Long Island Community FoundaDon, Long Island s Rental Housing Crisis, the Regional Plan AssociaDon pointed out that Long Island has the lowest availability of rental housing in the region. A map of census tracts that have experienced at least a 10 percent increase in the White popula.on, as well as at least a 10 percent increase in the year old demographic reveals an emerging trend: White young adults are moving to upper Manhajan and parts of Brooklyn. as seen in the shaded areas. The below map shows this and highlights one census tract near Harlem Hospital meedng these criteria in upper Manhajan. Map 10 9

10 Close- up of the census tract near Harlem Hospital with 34.52% increase in year olds and over 2,000% increase in White popula.on. Map 11 Map 12 Many census tracts in Brooklyn (shaded areas) have seen both the percentage of year olds and the percentage of Whites increase 10% or more since

11 This is a close- up of the census tract shown above in Williamsburg, Brooklyn. Map 13 New York is a Home Rule state: Unlike neighboring states that have laws requiring municipalides to meet affordable housing goals, New York remains a home rule state, in which zoning is lem up to municipalides. Long Island and Westchester CounDes, however, are subject to state and federal laws promodng affordable housing development. Long Island Workforce Housing Act In 2008, the New York State Legislature passed the Long Island Workforce Housing Act, which requires that 10 percent of any development of five units or more be affordable to households with incomes up to 130 percent of the area median income (AMI) for Nassau and Suffolk CounDes. Today, adjusted for family size, 130 percent of AMI is $138,000 per year for a family of four. But even that standard is not being followed and neither municipalides nor New York State are enforcing the law. The Berenson Decision Westchester and Suffolk CounDes have conducted independent studies to determine the regional need for affordable housing, pursuant to a landmark 1975 Court of Appeals decision and line of cases referred to as Berenson v. New Castle. The state s highest court ruled that each municipality in its zoning must provide the full array of housing, specifically including 11

12 muldfamily housing, to meet the needs of its residents plus a share of the regional need for affordable housing. Both the Westchester County and Suffolk County Legislatures authorized fair share studies that fixed numerical goals pursuant to Berenson for each town and village to meet the regional need. While several court cases brought by developers have upheld these fair share requirements, they took years to wend their way through the judicial system. Although coundes could theoredcally sue municipalides that refuse to zone for affordable housing, and Westchester commijed to doing so in a 2009 federal discriminadon sejlement, there has never been the polidcal will to do so. Conclusion It is ironic that suburban communides that fought so hard to restrict development of affordable and muldfamily housing may now be losing year olds on an acceleradng basis to diverse, urban areas. The areas hardest hit are already closing schools and sharply reducing their projecdons of school children. Volunteer fire departments and emergency medical services may become a thing of the past, and office vacancy has reached 19 percent in Westchester County and 11.5 percent on Long Island, according to Collier s InternaDonal. While it may be difficult to overcome preferences for the urban lifestyle by Millennials, development of vibrant downtowns, acceptance of diversity, and affordable housing appear cridcal for Long Island and Westchester to remain compeddve for the young adult workforce. 12