ASEAN Community and Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity

Transcription

1 ASEAN Community and Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity Lim Chze Cheen Head, ASEAN Connectivity Division ASEAN Secretariat ASEAN Automotive Conference Stuttgart, Germany November 2015

2 ASEAN as Investors Destination, 2014 Land Area 4.44 million km 2 Population 622 Million (61% Youth) GDP at current prices US$ 2.57 trillion Merchandise Trade US$ 2.53 trillion (Intra-ASEAN trade: US$ 608 billion (24.1%)) FDI US$ billion (Intra-ASEAN FDI: US$ 24.4 billion (17.9%)) ASEAN s Growth Rate 4.7%

3 World GDP Ranking e 2003 C A GR % e ( ) C A GR % ( e ) USA USA 4% USA 5% J apa n G e r man y UK F r an ce Chi n a I ta ly Ca nad a S pa in ASEAN M e x ico 0. 7 #10 Rise of ASEAN Market / Economy Chi n a J apa n G e r man y F r a n ce UK ASEAN Bra z il Russia I ta ly I nd ia # 7 19% 1% 4% 4% 3% 2. 4 #7 12% D o ubl e - digit gro w th co m p a r a ble to BRIC 12% 15% 17% 3% 12% Chi n a J apa n I nd ia ASEAN G e r man y UK F r an ce Russia Bra z il Ca nad a 5. 1 #5 # 5 10% 2% 15% 12% 3% Double- D o e - 4% digit gro w th trum p s 2% m a j ority B R IC, on ly 6% la g s beh ind 4% I nd ia 4% Source: Dinesh Khanna, The Boston Consulting Group, 2014

4 Trade within and outside of trading blocs Share of total goods trade, % 1 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) 2 ASEAN s intra-regional trade is much lower than that of other trading blocs European Union (EU) 3 Compound annual growth rate, 2010-latest year available Intra-regional Extra-regional (including China) North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) $785 billion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion 6 $4.9 trillion $10.3 trillion $11.8 trillion 5 $2.9 $4.6 $5.6 7 trillion trillion trillion NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Data for the EU and NAFTA from Comtrade is only available up to The value of total trade calculated as all imports plus all exports out of ASEAN. 2 ASEAN EU-27. SOURCE: Comtrade; ASEAN Secretariat; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

5 Export of Priority Integration Sectors in million US$ 225, ,000 75, Electronic products have always been the top export earner in the region, above the rest of the Priority Integration Sectors; although automotive, textiles/apparels, and rubber-based products showed a consistent uptrend over the years. 0 Agro-based Automotive Electronics Fisheries Rubber-based Textiles and Apparels Wood-based

6 Foreign direct investment inflows In US$ billions FDI inflows to ASEAN has exceeded those to other emerging markets ASEAN China Russia Brazil India Korea Compound annual growth rate, % ASEAN China Russia Brazil India Korea SOURCE: UNCTAD

7 The number of ASEAN households in the consuming class is expected to double by 2030, with strong gains in Indonesia Consuming class households, Million Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand Myanmar Malaysia Cambodia 1 3 Singapore 1 2 Laos 1 1 ASEAN Defined as households with more than $7,500 in annual income (in 2005 purchasing power parity terms). This is the income level at which households begin to make significant discretionary purchases; Brunei not shown on chart as number of consuming class households in 2030 is only ~0.1 million. SOURCE: McKinsey Global Institute Cityscope database; national statistics offices; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

8 Journey to Building ASEAN Community 1967 Founding of ASEAN 1997 ASEAN Vision Ha Noi Plan of Action 2007 ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint 2009 Roadmap for an ASEAN Community ( ) 2012 Phnom Penh Agenda 1992 ASEAN Free Trade Area 2003 Bali Concord II 2004 Vientiane Action Programme Post-2015 ASEAN Vision 2011 ASEAN Framework on Equitable Economic Development 2010 Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity 2008 Entry into force of ASEAN Charter

9 ASEAN Political- Security Community (APSC) ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) ASEAN Socio- Cultural Community (ASCC) Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity Initiative for ASEAN Integration

10 Where are we now in connecting the region?

11 1. Physical Connectivity improving infrastructure critical to improved transport, communications and energy security. 11

12 ASEAN needs an estimated $3.3 trillion in infrastructure to support growth to 2030 Required infrastructure and real estate investment, $ trillion Telecom Water Power 1.2 Transport Indonesia Philippines Thailand Malaysia Singapore Viet Nam Others 2 Total investment 1 In 2013 real dollar terms. 2 Includes Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. NOTE: Numbers may not sum due to rounding. SOURCE: Pike Research; IHS; McKinsey Global Institute analysis

13 After experiencing a significant fall following the Asia Financial Crisis, private infrastructure investment has slowly increased Private infrastructure investment 1 In US$ billions Cambodia Malaysia Philippines Myanmar Viet Nam Laos Indonesia Thailand Data unavailable for Singapore and Brunei. SOURCE: World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure Database

14 ASEAN Highway Network (AHN) No more missing link in AHN Total length of roads below Class III reduced by 46.2%, from 5,311.2km in 2010 to 2,454km in 2015, which include 1,200km on the priority Transit Transport Routes (TTR). Installation of Road Signage and Route Numbering Sign on designated Transit Transport Routes (TTRs) in Myanmar and Philippines have been completed

15 Singapore-Kunming Rail Link (SKRL) Construct missing links Aranyaprathet-Klongluk (Thailand): As of July 2015, construction of the 6 km missing link is 95%. The construction of cross-border railway bridge has already been completed in June Phnom Penh - Poipet (Cambodia) expected to be completed by 2017 Feasibility study completed, seeking funding: Phnom Penh-Loc Ninh (Cambodia), Loc Ninh-Ho Chi Minh City (Viet Nam) Support for feasibility study being considered: Mu Gia-Tan Ap-Vung Ang (Viet Nam), Vientiane-Thakek- Mu Gia (Lao PDR)

16 Roll-On/Roll-Off (RORO) Network Conduct feasibility study on the establishment of an ASEAN RO-RO Network and Short-Sea Shipping MELAKA Study completed, Operationalising RO-RO prioritised routes and harmonisation of institutional arrangements.

17 Enhance the performance and capacity of the 47 designated ports Source: ASEAN Maritime Transport Development Study, ALMEC Corp

18 LEGEND MYANMAR 11 South Existing Under Construction Future North PEOPLE S REPUBLIC OF CHINA YUNNAN 4 LAO PDR 9 2 THAILAND 14 CAMBODIA VIETNAM 1 5 SUMATRA SARAWAK BRUNEI 6 8 WEST KALIMANTAN 7 East PHILLIPINES 15 INDONESIA SABAH Source: Modified from Syaiful Bakhri Ibrahim, May 2015 ASEAN Power Grid Earliest COD 1) P.Malaysia - Singapore (New) Post ) Thailand - P.Malaysia Sadao - Bukit Keteri Existing Khlong Ngae - Gurun Existing Su Ngai Kolok - Rantau Panjang TBC Khlong Ngae Gurun (2 nd Phase, 300MW) TBC 3) Sarawak - P. Malaysia ) P.Malaysia - Sumatra ) Batam - Singapore ) Sarawak - West Kalimantan ) Philippines - Sabah ) Sarawak - Sabah Brunei Sarawak Sabah 2020 Sabah Brunei Not Selected Sarawak Brunei ) Thailand - Lao PDR Roi Et 2 - Nam Theun 2 Existing Sakon Nakhon 2 Thakhek Then Hinboun (Exp.) Existing Mae Moh 3 - Nan - Hong Sa 2015 Udon Thani 3- Nabong (converted to 500KV) 2019 Ubon Ratchathani 3 Pakse Xe Pian Xe Namnoy 2019 Khon Kaen 4 Loei 2 Xayaburi 2019 Nakhon Phanom Thakhek 2015 Thailand Lao PDR (New) ) Lao PDR - Vietnam 2016-TBC 11) Thailand - Myanmar - Cambodia (N ) Vietnam ew) TBC 13) Lao PDR - Cambodia ) Thailand - Cambodia (New) post ) East Sabah - East Kalimantan post ) Singapore Sumatra post 2020 Priority Projects under MPAC

19 2. Institutional Connectivity providing the regulatory and trade framework to enable maximum economic growth and prosperity. 19

20 Focus on Trade and Transport Facilitation

21 National Single Windows and ASEAN Single Window Substantial but varied progress in most AMS. The full-fledged ASW Pilot Project Component 2 is due to end in December Source: ASEAN-US TATF, ASW-LWG

22 Standards and Conformance Harmonisation of standards and technical requirements Operationalise MRAs for prioritised and selected industries Development of single regulatory regime, Directive or Agreement for the Priority Integration Sectors.

23 ASEAN has a significant need to upgrade skills Working age population 1 by educational attainment 2010, % xx % increase in tertiary educated population since 1990 Tertiary Secondary Primary No education Cambodia Indonesia Viet Nam Myanmar Laos Thailand Brunei Malaysia Singapore Philippines ASEAN 1 Data is only available for population between age SOURCE: Barro-Lee via World Bank

24 MRA for Professionals There have been eight concluded MRAs in ASEAN: ASEAN MRAs 1. Engineering Services, December Nursing Services, December Architectural Services, November A framework for Surveying Qualifications, November Medical Practitioners, February Dental Practitioners, February A framework for Accounting Services, February 2009; subsequently amended as MRA on Accountancy Services, November Tourism Professionals, November 2012

25 3. People-to-People Connectivity expanding educational opportunities and promoting human resource development, preserving ASEAN culture, and promoting increased tourism across the region. 25

26 Visa Relaxation Progressive visa liberalisation/ exemption for ASEAN nationals Carry out a study on a common visa for non-asean nationals ASEAN Member States have generally implemented visa-free entry for ordinary passport holders from ASEAN ASEAN Immigration Lanes for ASEAN nationals in major international ports of entry in ASEAN being explored

27 ASEAN Curriculum Sourcebook Developed Curriculum Framework with Themes and Pathways Efforts ongoing to introduce the ASEAN Curriculum Sourcebook to both ASEAN students and school teachers

28 ASEAN Virtual Learning Resource Centre (AVLRC) Extensive database on ASEAN and ASEAN Member States, particularly its people, culture, history, places of interest and economy. Consolidation of ASEAN Culture and Information Portal and ASEAN Media Portal First-stop rather than one-stop

29 Challenges in Delivering ASEAN Community and ASEAN Connectivity Capacity Issues Organisation (Design and Institutional Arrangement) Resource Mobilisation Evidence-Based Costs and Benefits 29

30 ASEAN Community 2025 Vision Aims to sustain the momentum of regional integration and further contribute to strengthening as well as deepening of the ASEAN community-building efforts.

31 ASEAN Community 2025 Vision ASEAN 2025: Forging Ahead Together ASEAN Political Security Community ASEAN Economic Community ASEAN Socio- Cultural Community Rules-based, peopleoriented, peoplecentred community Peaceful, secure and stable region ASEAN Centrality in a dynamic and outward-looking region Strengthened ASEAN institutional capacity and presence A highly integrated and cohesive economy A competitive, innovative and dynamic ASEAN Enhanced connectivity and sectoral cooperation A resilient, inclusive, people-oriented and people-centred ASEAN A global ASEAN Engages and benefits the people Inclusive Sustainable Resilient Dynamic

32 Connectivity towards Community of Opportunities THANK YOU