Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index

Transcription

1 Volume 5 Fall PUBLIC AGENDA Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index Loss of Faith: Public s Belief in Effective Solutions Eroding A Report from Public Agenda by Scott Bittle and Jonathan Rochkind with Jared Bosk and Amber Ott Concept by Public Agenda Chairman and Co-Founder Daniel Yankelovich with support from Ford Foundation and The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation in cooperation with This report is available for free download at Public Agenda. Unauthorized duplication of this report is a violation of copyright.

2 Introduction: What will work? Since Public Agenda began Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index two years ago, public attitudes have grown darker and more anxious in almost every area we ve examined. Perhaps that is not surprising in wartime. Yet we are reaching a point where public seems to be questioning not just wher current policies are working, but wher United United States States can can have have an effective an effective foreign foreign policy at all. policy at all. The The public public shows shows an an increasing increasing loss loss of of faith faith in in many many policy policy options, options, while while public public approval approval in almost every policy area has declined. in almost every policy area has declined. If public s concerns on foreign affairs have a If public s concerns on foreign affairs have place at policy-making table and we believe place at policy-making table and we believe y do n fact that none of trends have y been do n positive should fact be that a matter none of of grave trends concern. have been For example: positive should be matter of grave concern. For example: The public shows a growing loss of confidence in many The public foreign shows policy a strategies, growing loss including of confidence options in that many foreign public policy has always strategies, considered including among options that most promising, public has such always as controlling considered immigration among most and promising, improved intelligence such as controlling garing. immigration and Public improved anxiety intelligence about foreign garing. policy remains at a high level. Our Anxiety Indicator stands at 136, down Public one anxiety point about from six foreign months policy ago and remains still at uncomfortably a high level. Our close Anxiety to 150 Indicator mark we stands would at 136, consider down a one collapse point of from confidence six months in ago government s uncomfortably foreign policy. close to 150 mark we and still would Roughly consider half a collapse public doubts of confidence government in government s is telling m foreign truth policy. about our actions in Iraq and Afghanistan, while 57 percent doubt government Nearly half is telling public truth doubts about government relations with is telling or m countries in truth general. about our actions in Iraq, Afghanistan There is declining and more satisfaction than 5 with in 10 how doubts government is performing in foreign policy in areas government is telling m truth about foreign that public has long considered America s affairs in general. strongest points, such as disaster relief and maintaining a strong military There is continued dissatisfaction with how Iraq, government of course, is is performing central foreign in foreign policy policy, question for including areas public. that Given public has ferocious long considered debate of America s past six strongest months points, much such anticipated as disaster Petraeus report, maintaining Democrats a strong repeated military. attempts to set a relief and withdrawal deadline or cut off funds and President Iraq, Bush s of announcement course, is central of a foreign troop drawdown policy question next for year it s public. remarkable Given how ferocious little public debate attitudes of on past war six have months changed. much anticipated Petraeus report, There does Democrats seems to be repeated a modest attempts Petraeus to effect, set a withdrawal a small deadline decline or in cut those off funds who give and President United States announcement failing grades of for a its troop efforts drawdown in Iraq. next But Bush s year it s when comes remarkable to fundamental how little attitudes public attitudes about on war, war it is have as if changed. last six months of debate never happened. More than two-thirds of public believe we does should seem withdraw to be a modest within Petraeus a year. Nearly effect, 6 There with in 10 a believe small decline America s in those safety who from give terrorism United does States not depend failing on grades our success for its in efforts Iraq. in Half Iraq. do But not when believe it comes United to States fundamental can do much attitudes to control about violence or create a stable democracy. But 6 war, it is as if last six months of debate in 10 also believe we have a moral obligation to never happened. More than two-thirds of Iraqi people. All of se results are essentially public believe we should withdraw. Nearly Six unchanged since spring. in 10 believe America s safety from terrorism does The pessimism not depend about on what Iraq, happens combined in Iraq. with Half persistently do not believe high anxiety, United sour States grades can and do much flagging to control confidence in violence solutions, or create is troubling a stable because democracy. it suggests nearly that 6 public in 10 hasn t also believe heard we anything have a to moral make But obligation m think to America s Iraqi people. global position All of se is likely results to are improve eir essentially unchanged from Congress, since spring. White House or presidential candidates. If anyone has presented pessimism a credible way about out from Iraq, combined troubles facing with The persistently nation, high public anxiety, has sour not yet grades acknowledged and flagging it. confidence in solutions, is troubling because it suggests This is that fifth edition public of hasn t Confidence heard anything U.S. to Foreign make Policy m Index, think conducted America s every global six position months is in likely association to improve eir with Foreign from Affairs, Congress, America s White most influential House or publication presidential on international candidates. relations. The has index presented uses more a credible than way 110 out questions from to If anyone troubles find out facing what worries nation, public public about has America s not yet acknowledged place in world, it. to grade government on its efforts and to determine what y believe nation s This is priorities fifth should edition be. of Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, conducted every six months In addition, Foreign Policy Anxiety Indicator in association with Foreign Affairs, America s most is designed to measure public s overall level of influential publication on international relations. concern with or confidence in international affairs The index uses more than 110 questions to find in much same way Consumer Confidence out what worries public about America s place Index measures ir view of economy. (See in indicator world, on page to grade 14 and government methodology on its section efforts and for more to determine detail on how what we y calculate believe indicator.) nation s priorities should be. The indicator is a useful tool for policy makers In because addition, public Foreign approaches Policy foreign Anxiety policy Indicator very is differently designed from to measure domestic issues. public s Most overall people level admit y with don t or have confidence a deep understanding international of affairs inter- of concern in national much affairs same and way are usually Consumer willing to Confidence leave it to CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 23

3 Index experts unless measures ir y view believe of things economy. are seriously (See off course. methodology The indicator section for is designed more detail to provide on how a we guide calculate to when indicator.) public believes foreign affairs demand ir attention. The one-point decline in The indicator indicator leaves is it a essentially useful tool unchanged for policy from makers six because months ago, public with public approaches concern foreign at a high policy level. very differently from domestic issues. Most people admit y don t have a deep understanding of international affairs and are usually willing to leave it to experts unless y believe things are seriously off course. The indicator is designed to provide a guide to when public believes foreign affairs demand ir attention. The onepoint decline in indicator leaves it essentially unchanged from six months ago, with public concern at a high level. Events in news are a powerful force on on public public attitudes. Our Our survey was was in in field week following Petraeus report and President Bush s address to nation on Iraq. In addition, Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad made a highly publicized (and criticized) visit to New York while survey was under way. CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 34

4 Summary of findings Over last two years, public shows a growing loss of faith in United States in ability United to have States s an effective ability foreign to have policy. an effective Confidence foreign in many policy. strategies is falling, Confidence and public approval in many strategies in almost every is falling policy and area public has approval declined. in... 6 almost There every are significant policy area declines has declined public. confidence... that a wide range of strategies 6 would To come enhance U.S. security a great deal, including supporting women s rights in Muslim countries (down 14 percent), showing more respect for views of or Despite countries (down past six 11 months percent), of improved ferocious effectiveness debate over of Iraq intelligence operations (down or 9 perhaps percent), because and tighter that controls debate on produced immigration no shift (down in policy 6 percent). public There attitudes are also significant remain pessimistic declines since about war in... public s perception of how well 8 government To come is carrying out foreign policy in many areas. Despite past six months of ferocious debate over Iraq or perhaps because that While strong majorities continue to favor nonmilitary solutions, debate produced no shift in policy public attitudes remain pessimistic about war... 9 re is some evidence of a small shift away from diplomacy, The effect of Petraeus report on public attitudes seems limited to how intensely particularly on Iran... 9 public disapproves of conduct of war. The number who give United States To come grades of C or worse for meeting our objectives in Iraq is essentially unchanged, but number who give clearly failing D or F grades declined six points. Those giving an The A or public B grade has rose become 4 points. even more frustrated with government s efforts There on is hardly immigration any change and may for be our moving or Iraq closer indicators, a tipping with roughly point. two... thirds favoring come at least a gradual withdrawal and roughly half saying re s not much United 10 To States can do to create a democratic Iraq or to control violence re. The public continues to be sharply divided on ideological lines in foreign While strong policy, majorities but re continue has been to a favor significant nonmilitary decline solutions, in Republican re is some evidence confidence of a small shift in fostering away from democracy diplomacy,... particularly on Iran To Two come thirds say government should put more emphasis on diplomatic and economic efforts rar than force. Women Eight in are 10 more continue worried to reject about America s use of force position against Iran, world but, re is a slight shift and towards more a fatalistic, more aggressive while men stance, are with more those critical favoring about diplomacy U.S. policy to... establish better 13 To relations come falling nine points to 35 percent. Those who favored threatening or using force rose six points, to 19 percent. The public has become even more frustrated with government s efforts on immigration and may be moving closer to a tipping point More than 8 in 10 (83 percent) give government grades of C or worse on controlling immigration, an increase of nine points since. The number who give an outright F jumped eight points in six months, to 37 percent. This also ranks high as a public concern, with 45 percent saying y worry a lot that it s too easy for illegal immigrants to enter country. Substantial numbers (46 percent) believe government can do a lot to slow illegal immigration, and very few say government can do nothing at all about it. CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 45

5 Summary of findings (continued) Over The public last continues two years, to be sharply public shows divided a on growing ideological loss of lines faith in foreign policy, but in re has United been States s a decline ability in Republican to have effective confidence foreign fostering policy. democracy Confidence Democrats in and many Republicans strategies continue is falling to and differ public greatly approval on issues in of foreign policy nearly half every of Republicans policy area (49%) has declined say U.S. foreign... policy is heading in right direction, 6 almost compared To come with only 14 percent of Democrats. Also, 45 percent of Republicans give A or B grades for meeting our objectives in Iraq, compared with only 15 percent Despite of Democrats. past six months of ferocious debate over Iraq or Since perhaps, because re has that been debate a 24-point produced drop no in shift number in policy of Republicans who believe public United attitudes States remain can help pessimistic or countries about become war... democracies. 8 To come Women are more worried about America s position in world and more fatalistic, while men are more critical about U.S. policy While strong majorities continue to favor nonmilitary solutions, Women are more likely to be worried about security--53 percent of women say y re is some evidence of a small shift away from diplomacy, worry a lot about a terrorist attack using weapons of mass destruction, compared particularly on Iran... 9 with 44 percent of men. To come Whey re also less likely to believe government can do a lot about problems facing country. For example, only 42 percent of women say government can The do public a lot has to make become United even more States frustrated less dependent with on government s foreign energy, compared with efforts 58 percent on immigration of men. and may be moving closer to a tipping point Men To come are more likely to believe that criticisms of U.S. policy are at least partly justified, such as United States has allied with governments that exploit ir own people The (73% public of men continues agree compared to be sharply to 61% divided of women on ideological agree); that lines in United States resorts foreign to torture policy, in but war re on has terrorism been a (65% significant of men/47% decline of in women Republican agree); and disregards confidence interests of fostering or countries democracy (70%.... of men/58% of women agree). 12 To come Foreign policy anxiety indicator Women are more worried about America s position in world Indicator and more methodology fatalistic, while... men... are... more..... critical..... about..... U.S..... policy To come Grades at a glance Worries at a glance Goals at a glance Strategies at a glance Full survey results CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 5

6 Over last two years, public shows a growing loss of faith in United States s ability to to have an an effective foreign policy. Confidence in many strategies is falling, and public approval in almost every policy area policy has area declined has declined The public not only doubts that U.S. foreign policy is working, but y re increasingly skeptical about wher anything can turn situation around. This decline in confidence seems to occur wher proposed strategy is hawkish or dovish, wher it involves hard power or soft power or wher or not public put much stock in it in in first first place. place. In In some some cases, cases, confidence confidence has has declined slowly declined slowly over over two two years, years, while while in ors in ors it has it dropped sharply in past six months. has dropped sharply in past six months. For example, since re have been declines For example, since re have been declines in those who think any of se strategies would do in those who think any of se strategies would do a great deal to strengn U.S. security: a great deal to strengn U.S. security: Supporting women s rights in Muslim countries, Supporting down 14 points women s rights in Muslim countries, down Showing 14 points more respect for views and needs of or countries, down 11 points Showing Improved more effectiveness respect for of intelligence views and operations, needs of down or 9 countries, points down 11 points Helping Muslim countries develop economically, Improved down 8 points intelligence garing, down 9 points Tighter controls on immigration, down 6 points Helping Maintaining Muslim our countries military edge develop by exploring economically, new down technologies 8 points or placing weapons in space, down 6 points Tighter controls over on immigration, foreign students down in 6 points United States, down 5 points Maintaining our military edge with space technology, down 6 points Decline in confidence for se strategies Percent who say that following proposals would strengn our nation s security a great deal: Summer Fall Improving effectiveness of our intelligence operations Tighter controls on immigration to U.S. 65% 56% 58% 52% Showing more respect for 49% views and needs of 38% or countries Tighter control over foreign students who come to our colleges and universities 41% 36% to study Maintaining Creating policies our military that support edge 40% equal by exploring rights new and better technologies 41% educational 34% or placing weapons opportunities in space for 27% women in Muslim countries Creating policies that support Doing Maintaining equal rights more to our and help military better edge 41% 40% 40% by educational exploring opportunities new technologies for 27% 34% or women placing Muslim weapons countries in space women in Muslim countries Doing Creating Doing more more policies to to help help that support 27% Muslim countries develop 27% Muslim countries develop economically 19% economically 19% Question Question wording wording may may be be slightly slightly edited edited for for space space and and clarity. clarity. Percentages Percentages may may not not equal equal percent percent due due to to rounding rounding or or omission omission of of some some answer answer categories. categories. Tighter control over foreign students in United States, down 5 points CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 6

7 Since we began Foreign Foreign Policy Policy Index, Index, pub- public has favored has favored a small a small cluster cluster of strategies of strategies to make to make United United States States more secure primarily more secure primarily better better intelligence intelligence garing, garing, controlling controlling illegal immigra- illegal immigration and energy and independence. energy independence. These top But three over strategies two years still have that considerable Public Agenda backing has conducted from public, index, with approval a little more has fallen than in half se persuaded areas where y would United do a States great has deal previously to enhance gotten national its highest security. But from y public. have not been immune from ratings overall decline in confidence. These top three strategies still have considerable This trend is particularly worrisome combined backing from public, with a little more than with two or factors. One is that public has half persuaded y would do a lot to enhance a steadily more negative view of how well government is conducting foreign policy. Although national security. But of those three, only energy public independence has been highly is holding critical steady of government in public approval. policy in many areas, re s been a significant decline in ratings for areas that were previously seen This as America s trend is strong particularly suits. worrisome combined with two or factors. One is that public has a steadily more negative view of how well government is conducting foreign policy. Although public has been highly critical of government policy For example, in many re s areas, been re s a 16-point been a drop significant since decline in in those ratings who for give areas United that were States previously an A seen grade as for America s helping strong out during suits. natural disasters (although survey probably reflected positive For feelings example, about re s successful been a 16-point Indonesian drop since tsunami in relief those effort). who There give have United also States been declines an A grade in A for and helping B grades out for during hunting natural down disasters anti-american (although terrorists (down survey 13 probably points), reflected doing our positive best to feelings bring about peace between successful Israel and Indonesian Palestinians tsunami (down relief effort). 12), giving There have war also on terror been declines attention in A and it deserves (down B grades for hunting 10) and down having anti-american a strong terrorists military (down 9 points). (down 13 points), doing our best to bring peace between Israel and Palestinians (down 12), In many of se areas, half or more of public giving war on terror attention it deserves still give high grades (69 percent still give A s and (down B s for 10) disaster and relief having and a strong 58 percent military for having (down 9 a points). strong military, for example). But decline in satisfaction is significant and troubling. In many of se areas, half or more of public still give high grades (69 percent still give A s and B s for disaster relief and 58 percent for having a strong military, for example). But decline in satisfaction is significant and troubling. Decline in favorable A and B grades over over two two years What grade would you give U.S. when it comes to achieving following goals? Percent who say A or B: Helping or countries when y are struck by natural disasters Hunting down anti-american terrorists 83% 80% 79% 77% 69% 54% 46% 47% 42% 41% Summer Spring Fall Spring Fall Summer Spring Fall Spring Fall Making sure we have a strong, well-supplied military Doing our best to bring peace between Israel and Palestinians 67% 65% 62% 59% 58% 45% 44% 38% 36% 33% Summer Spring Fall Spring Fall Summer Spring Fall Spring Fall Giving war on terror all attention it deserves 58% 58% 56% 50% 48% Summer Spring Fall Spring Fall CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 7

8 As in previous editions of index, re are also four areas of serious public dissatisfaction that is both broad (with three-quarters of public giving a grade of C or worse) and intense (with about half giving a D or F mark). and one area that is approaching this threshhold. Illegal immigration, protecting U.S. jobs, stopping illegal drugs from entering country and achieving energy independence can be characterized as having both broad and intense dissatisfaction and in addition meeting our objectives in Iraq is very close to se marks (71% of public gives a grade of C or worse and 46% gives it a D or F). Significantly, two of those areas of high dissatisfaction (immigration and energy independence) have also consistently been among public s most favored strategies. So public still sees m as promising strategies for United States but low grades suggest y don t think government is getting very far in implementing m. The second troubling factor is that large segments of public doubt government is telling truth on foreign policy. Some 57 percent say y trust government not too much or not at all to tell m truth about relations with or countries. That s essentially unchanged from a year ago. The government gets better grades for telling truth in specific areas, although levels of doubt are still uncomfortably high for Iraq (52 percent), Afghanistan (48 percent), war on terror (42 percent) and homeland security (40 percent). The number who say y trust government to tell truth on homeland security, in particular, dropped six points in a year. These high and consistent levels of distrust may be having a corrosive effect on public attitudes, in public s perception both of what is working and of what is achievable. Broad and intense dissatisfaction What grade would you give United States when it comes to achieving following goals? Percent who say C, D, or F: C D F Protecting Stopping illegal American drugs jobs from from coming moving into overseas country Succeeding Protecting our in meeting borders our objectives from illegal in immigration Iraq 70% 83% Stopping Protecting illegal American drugs jobs from coming from moving into overseas country 75% 79% Becoming less dependent on or countries for our supply of energy 77% Protecting Succeding our in meeting borders our from objectives illegal in immigration Iraq 76% 79% 71% 82% CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 8

9 Despite past six months of ferocious debate over Iraq or perhaps because that debate produced no shift in policy public attitudes re- remain pessimistic about war war There s no question Iraq Iraq is is central central foreign foreign policy question policy question for for American American public fully public fully 25 percent 25 in percent our survey in our volunteer survey volunteer it as it nation s as nation s biggest international biggest international problem. problem. And no political And no issue political has been issue intensely has been debated as intensely over debated last six months, over with last six as Democrats months, with repeated Democrats attempts to force repeated a deadline attempts for withdrawal, to force a deadline a major for White withdrawal, House campaign a major to White build up House support campaign and to much build up anticipated support and benchmark much report anticipated by General benchmark David Petraeus report by and General Ambassador David Ryan Petraeus Crocker. and Ambassador Wher you Ryan were Crocker. a supporter Wher or an you were a supporter or an opponent, ember opponent, ember was considered to be a was considered to be a make-or-break month make-or-break month for war. for war. Yet when it comes to public attitudes, very little Yet when it comes to public attitudes, very little seems seems to to have have changed. changed. Compared Compared with with six six months months ago, ago, public public is is slightly slightly less less pessimistic pessimistic about about U.S. U.S. progress in Iraq, but just as doubtful about our prospects. The Petraeus effect on public attitudes seems to be mostly a modest reduction in how intensely public disapproves of of how conduct war of is being war. waged. The number The number who give who give United States United a States grade grades of C or of worse C or for worse meeting for meeting our objectives our objectives in Iraq in hasn t Iraq really hasn t budged, (it s but only down number 2 points), who give but clearly number failing who D or give F grades a clearly declined failing D six or points, F grade to 46 declined percent. six points, to 46 percent. Those who are are satisfied with with war war effort effort in- increased slightly, slightly, with with A or A B or grades B grades edging edging up four up four points, points, to 25 to percent. 25 percent. In, In that, figure that stood figure at stood 39 percent. at 39 percent. When When it it comes comes to to many many fundamentals, fundamentals, however, however, Foreign Policy Index shows hardly any change Foreign Policy Index shows hardly any change at all. In se areas, it is almost as if last six at all. In se areas, it is almost as if last six months of debate never happened. For example: months of debate never happened. For example: Roughly two thirds say United States should withdraw (48 percent within next 12 months, 19 Roughly percent 7 immediately). in 10 say United States should withdraw About half (48 say percent re s within not much next 12 months, United 19 States percent can immediately). do to create a democratic Iraq (51 percent) or to control violence re (49 percent). More Nearly than half half (47 (51%) percent) say consider re s not Iraq much mostly a United civil war. States can do to create a democratic Iraq or to control violence re. Six Nearly in 10 half do (47 not percent) believe America s consider Iraq safety mostly from a terrorism civil war. depends on success in Iraq. Half (52 percent) say y don t think government Six in has 10 told do not public believe America s truth about safety from war terrorism in Iraq. depends on success in Iraq. Nearly About Half half (52 say re percent) is not much say y government don t think can government do to control has told violence public in Iraq truth about Is controlling violence in Iraq something Is war. our controlling government can violence do a lot, in Iraq something something or our not government much about? can do lot about? Nearly half say re is not much government can do to control violence in Iraq 49% Not much Is controlling violence in Iraq something Is our controlling government can violence do a lot, in Iraq something something or our not government much about? can do lot 34% about? Something 15% A lot 49% Not much 34% Something or to create a democratic Iraq Is creating a deomcratic democratic Iraq 15% something A lot our our government government can can do a do lot, a lot something about? or not much about? 51% Not much or to create a democratic Iraq Is creating a democratic deomcratic Iraq something our 33% Something our government government can can do a do lot, a lot something about? or not much about? 12% A lot 51% Not much 3% Don t know 33% Something In each case, results are 12% essentially A lot same as last spring. 3% Don t know Anor attitude that hasn t changed is public s sense that United States owes something to In each case, results are essentially same as Iraqi people. Nearly 6 in 10 say we have a moral last spring. obligation to Iraqi people, while only one-third say United States should act in its own interest Anor attitude that hasn t changed is public s without regard to how it affects Iraqis. sense that United States owes something to Iraqi Yet this people. sense Nearly of obligation 6 in 10 also say has we have limits. a When moral obligation asked if U.S. to troops Iraqi should people, stay while in Iraq only to one-third control say violence United even States if it should means act more in its American own interest casualties or regard withdraw to how even it affects if it means Iraqis. more Iraqi without casualties, 55 percent said United States should still withdraw. CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 9

10 While strong majorities continue to favor nonmilitary solutions, re is some evidence of a small shift away from diplomacy, particularly on Iran One major trend we have seen is a strong preference major for nonmilitary trend we have solutions seen is a in strong foreign preference affairs. One for Some nonmilitary 65 percent solutions say in government foreign affairs. should Some put 65 more percent emphasis say on government diplomatic and should economic put more efforts rar on than diplomatic military solutions, and economic and even efforts more emphasis rar reject force than in military specific solutions, situations like and dealing even more with reject Iran and force Pakistan. in specific Yet while situations substantial like dealing majorities with Iran (nearly and two-thirds) Pakistan. Yet continue while substantial to prefer diplomatic majorities (eight action in or 10) sanctions continue over to prefer force diplomatic with Iran, action re or is sanctions slight movement over force, towards re a is more a slight aggressive trend toward stance a in more latest aggressive edition stance of in index. latest edition of index. This is most notable in survey results on Iran, where This people is most appear notable to be in less survey confident results in on diplomacy, Iran, where if people far from appear ready to to be embrace less confident use in of diplomacy, force. Given if far options from on ready how to to embrace cope with Iran, use of force. number. Given who options favor diplomacy on how to to cope establish with Iran, better relations number who fell nine points, to 35 percent, while number who favor diplomacy to establish better relations fell favored threatening or using force rose six points. nine points, to 35 percent, while number who favored threatening or using force rose a slight six This may have something to do with fact that points. index was in field during Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad s visit to United Nations. Shift The away highly from diplomacy negative media in Iran coverage, not to In mention your view, what fodder is ONE Ahmadinejad best way for provided U.S. for commentators to deal with and current comedians, situation in may Iran? have powerfully influenced public attitudes. Given overall Spring Fall Shift away from diplomacy in Iran Use diplomacy to try to 44% establish better relations In your view, what is ONE best way 35% for U.S. to deal with current situation in Iran? Seek to impose international 28% economic Spring sanctions Fall 30% The U.S. doesn t have to Use do anything diplomacy to deal to try with to establish current better situation relations in Iran TAKE military action Seek to impose international against Iran economic sanctions % THREATEN military action 5% The U.S. doesn t have to against Iran 11% do anything to deal with 9% 13% current situation in Iran Note: Asked only of those who say y follow situation in Iran. Take TAKE military action 8% against Iran 10% Threaten THREATEN military action against Iran 8% 13% 10% Note: Asked only of those who say y follow situation in Iran. 5% 9% 44% 35% 28% 30% tone surrounding his visit, it s perhaps not surprising that may Americans have something are less to optimistic do with about fact talking that This things index over was with in him. field during Iranian president Mahmud Ahmadinejad s visit to United Nations. In addition, The those highly who negative think that media attacking coverage, countries to that mention develop weapons fodder Ahmadinejad of mass destruction provided not for would commentators do a great and deal comedians, for national may security have powerfully jumped up influenced eight points, public to 25 attitudes. percent, Given and those overall who thought tone surrounding it would help his visit, our security it s perhaps not not at surprising all fell eight that points, Americans to 35 percent. are less optimistic This has proven about talking to be a things highly over volatile with question. him. In last edition of index, number who thought this would In do addition, a great those deal who for security think that fell attacking 19 points. countries Those that huge develop swings suggest weapons public of mass opinion destruction is highly would unsettled a in great this area not deal for to national mention security highly jumped susceptible up do eight to events points, in to 25percent, news. and those who thought it would do nothing at all fell eight points, Still, a drop in support for diplomacy is not same to 35 percent. This has proven to be a highly thing as an endorsement of military action. Only volatile question. In last edition of index, 19 percent of Americans all told back force or even number who thought this would do a great threat of force in Iran. And re s a similar deal for security fell 19 points. Those huge swings pattern in public attitudes about Pakistan, a U.S. suggest ally that public reportedly opinion has is al-qaeda highly unsettled training in camps this area not in parts of to mention country highly not completely susceptible under to events in central news. government s control. The public is divided on what to do re, but only 1 in 4 supports force Still, to remove a drop in support camps even for diplomacy if Pakistani not government objects as an endorsement compared to of diplomatic military action. or economic Only same thing 19 actions percent intended of Americans to spur Pakistan all told back into force action. or even threat of force in Iran. And re s a similar pattern It s important in public to attitudes remember about that Pakistan, preventing a U.S. ally spread that of reportedly nuclear weapons has al-qaeda is public s training first camps foreign parts policy of priority, country with 75 not percent completely saying under it should in central be very government s important. control. More than The 4 public in 10 is say divided y on worry what a to lot do about re, unfriendly but only 1 countries in 4 advocates becoming force to nuclear remove powers yet camps. a majority (62 percent) think it s unrealistic to expect that government can Or stop this. factors may also be at work. The number of Americans who say y worry at least somewhat about Or a factors terrorist may attack also has be increased at work. The seven number points in of six Americans months. who There say have y worry also been at least very somewhat about small decreases in a terrorist number attack who has say it s increased a justified seven points in six months. There have also been very criticism that United States is too quick to small decreases in number who say it s a justified criticism that United States is too quick to resort to war and that United States should use force only with support of its allies. resort to war or that it s very or somewhat important that United States use force only with support of its allies. CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 10 11

11 The public has become even more frustrated with government s efforts on immigration and may be moving closer to a tipping point The past two years have dashed hopes on both sides of immigration debate, with collapse of a a bipartisan reform reform plan plan in May in just May just latest in latest a series in of a series failed of attempts failed to attempts address to address problem. problem. The deadlock The has deadlock taken has its toll taken on its public toll on attitudes, public attitudes, with a sharp with jump a sharp in those jump who in those give who give govern- government flatly failing flatly grades. failing grades. Since Since Public Public Agenda Agenda began began this this survey, survey, public s public s never been happy with government policy on never been happy with government policy on illegal immigration, but over time attitudes have illegal immigration, but over time attitudes have grown considerably worse. More than 8 in 10 grown considerably worse. More than in 10 (83 percent) give government a grade of C or (83 percent) give government grades of or worse, an increase of nine points since. But worse, even more an increase striking of is nine intensity points since of. public s But even shift toward more striking pessimistic is intensity end of of scale. public s Nearly shift 6 in toward 10 now give pessimistic government end of a D scale. or F Nearly grade, Six with in 10 number now give who give government an outright D or F F jumping grades, with eight points number in six who months. give an outright F jumping eight points in six months. What s more, public believes illegal immigration is more, a critical public problem believes that illegal immigration government What s is ought a critical to be problem able to solve. that government ought to be able to solve. There are some problems, like protecting U.S. There jobs, where are some problems, public gives like protecting government U.S. jobs, terrible grades public but also gives doubts government wher anything terrible where grades can be but done also (three-quarters doubts wher say it s anything unrealistic can be to done expect (three-quarters companies to keep say it s jobs unrealistic here when to labor expect is companies cheaper abroad). to keep In jobs or here areas, when labor government is cheaper abroad). gets poor In grades, or but areas, sense government of urgency gets isn t poor as grades, high (only but 31 percent sense worry of urgency a lot about isn t as foreign high (only debt for 31 example). percent worry a lot about foreign debt, for example). Immigration is is different. Half Half public, public, 52 per- 52 percent, think think that that tighter controlling controls immigration immigration would enhance would enhance security security a great a great deal, deal, seeing seeing this this as an as an effective effective security strategy. Anor 45 percent say y worry a lot that it s too easy for illegal immigrants to to enter enter country. country. That s That s among among highest-rated highest-rated strategies and strategies and greatest greatest public public concern in concern in our survey. our And survey. 46 And percent 46 percent say say government government can do a can lot do to a slow lot illegal about immigration. This is also an area where re is little or no illegal immigration. This is also an area where re is political polarization. Only 16 percent of Republicans and 15 percent of Democrats give govern- little or no political polarization. Only 17 percent of both Democrats and Republicans give ment high grades for protecting our borders from government high grades for protecting our borders illegal immigration. from illegal immigration. Illegal immigration already has elements Illegal that might immigration constitute already a tipping has point elements in public attitudes a might constitute substantial a tipping majority point are in strongly public that attitudes a concerned about substantial a problem majority and believe are strongly government has about power a problem to address and it. believe Continuing concerned government public frustration has implies power to continuing address it. pressure Continuing public political frustration system implies to deal with continuing this problem pressure as on public political demands system that to its deal concerns with this be problem met. as public demands that its concerns be met. CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 11 12

12 The public continues to be sharply divided on ideological lines in foreign policy, but re has been a significant decline in Republican decline in Republican confidence confidence for fostering in democracy fostering democracy As in previous editions of index, re are significant differences between Republicans self-described and Republicans Democrats on and many Democrats issues, including on many some issues, basic including points. For some example, basic half points. of Republicans For example, (49 half percent) Republicans say foreign (49 policy percent) is heading say foreign in policy right di- is of heading rection, compared in right with direction, only 14 compared percent of with Democrats. percent The of differences Democrats. are The also differences striking in are several also only 14 striking specific areas: in several specific areas: Some Some percent percent of of Republicans Republicans give give A or B an grades A or for B meeting grade for our meeting objectives our objectives in Iraq, compared in Iraq, compared with only 15 percent of Democrats who with only 16 percent of Democrats who say same. say same. Nearly three-quarters (74 percent) Three-quarters of Democrats worry a lot that of Democrats worry a lot that war in Iraq war in Iraq is leading to too many casualties, is leading to too many casualties, compared with compared with 38 percent of Republicans. 38 percent of Republicans. Showing more respect for views and needs of or Showing countries more would respect strengn for views U.S. and security needs a of great or deal, countries according would to strengn 53 percent of U.S. Democrats, security a great while deal, only according 23 percent to of 53 Republicans percent of Democrats, agree. while Eight only in percent Democrats of Republicans think re agree. should be more emphasis on diplomatic and economic methods Eight in as 10 opposed Democrats to military think re action, should but just be more over emphasis 4 in 10 (41 on percent) diplomatic Republicans and economic share methods this view. as opposed to military action, but only 4 in 10 Republicans share this view. But re is some common ground. More than two-thirds of both Republicans and Democrats worry about growing strength of China. And nearly 9 in 10 of both parties (87 percent) say y worry that terrorists may use weapons of mass destruction to attack United States. But Republicans re is have some also common seen a ground. significant More loss than of two-thirds confidence of in one both specific Republicans area: and idea Democrats of exporting democracy. about Overall, growing three-quarters strength of China. of Ameri- And worry nearly cans say 9 that in 10 democracy of both parties is something (87 percent) or say countries can that only terrorists come to may on ir use own. weapons Since of, mass y worry destruction re has been to attack a 24-point United drop in States. Republicans who believe United States can help or countries Republicans become democracies have also and seen a 15-point a significant drop since loss of January confidence in in Republicans one specific who area: believe that idea creating a democratic of exporting democracy. Iraq is Overall, something three-quarters our government of Americans can do a say lot that about. democracy is something or countries can only come to on ir own. Since, re has been a 23-point drop in Republicans who believe United States can help or countries become democracies and a 14-point drop in Republicans who believe that creating a democratic Iraq is something our government can do a lot about. CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 12 13

13 Women are more worried about America s position in world and more fatalistic, while men are more critical about U.S. policy Women are more likely to be worried about security issues, or including security potential issues, including terrorist attacks potential (for Iraq and terrorist example, attacks 53 percent (for example, of women 53 percent say y of worry women a say lot y about worry a terrorist a lot attack about using a terrorist weapons attack of using mass weapons destruction, of compared mass destruction, with 44 compared percent of with men). 44 percent Yet y re of also men). less Yet likely y re to believe also less likely government can do government a lot about can do problems a lot facing about to believe problems country. Only facing 42 percent country. of women Only 42 say percent government say can do government a lot to make can do a United lot to States make of women less United dependent States on less foreign dependent energy, on compared foreign energy, with compared 58 percent with of men. 58 percent And only of men. 33 percent And 48 of percent women think government can do a lot to reduce of women say United States can do a lot to global warming, compared to 42 percent of men. create a democratic Iraq, far lower than 77 percent of men who say so. Men, however, are more likely to believe that criticisms of U.S. policy are justified perhaps precisely because Men, however, y are have more more likely confidence to believe that that criticisms United States of can U.S. be policy effective. are Nearly justified perhaps three-quarters of men because (73 percent) y have say more it s at confidence least a partly that precisely justified United criticism States to can say be effective. United States Nearly has threequarters with governments of (73 that percent) exploit say ir it s at own least a people. partly allied justified Only 61 criticism percent to of say women United say that. States Nearly has allied twothirds governments of say it s that a justified exploit criticism ir own to people. say with Only United 61 States percent resorts of women to torture say that. in Two-thirds war on terrorism, say compared it s a justified with criticism 47 percent to of say women. United And of men States 70 percent resorts of to men torture say it s in at least war partly on terrorism, justified compared to say United with 47 States percent is concerned of women. only And with 69 its percent own interests of men and say disregards it s at least partly interests justified of to or say countries, United compared States is concerned with 58 percent only of with women. its own interests and disregards or countries, compared with 58 percent of women. Women less are less likely likely to think to think government can government do a lot about can do se a lot issues about se issues Is following something government can do a lot about? Male Female Decreasing our dependence on or countries for our supply of energy Slowing illegal immigration to U.S. Preventing Reducing our jobs debts from going to or overseas countries Reducing our debts to Reducing or countries global warming Preventing anor major Reducing terrorist attack global against warming U.S. Preventing anor major terrorist Establishing attack good against relations with U.S. moderate Muslims Establishing Preventing good spread relations of with weapons moderate of mass Muslims destruction Preventing Controlling spread violenceof weapons in Iraq of mass destruction Controlling Creating a democratic violence in Iraq Iraq Creating a democratic Iraq % 43% 42% 33% 35% 39% 42% 33% 34% 33% 39% 26% 34% 33% 21% 26% 18% 33% 13% 21% 16% 18% 13% 9% 9% 16% 58% 42% 49% 43% 42% 45% CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY INDEX: FALL 13 14