Understanding the magnitude and spatial extent of crime in South Africa. Gregory Breetzke, PhD

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1 Understanding the magnitude and spatial extent of crime in South Africa Gregory Breetzke, PhD Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Seminar, Pretoria, South Africa, 28 March 2013 My background University of Pretoria ( ) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands (2004) University of Pretoria ( ) Geo-analysis of offenders in Tshwane: towards an urban ecological theory of crime in South Africa University of Canterbury, New Zealand (2009 present) Research interests 1

2 Overview A spatial history of crime in South Africa Apartheid ( ) Magnitude of crime Location of crime Post-apartheid (1994 present) Magnitude of crime Location of crime Can we be optimistic? A spatial history of crime in South Africa Apartheid ( ) Magnitude of crime Difficult to estimate 2

3 Location of crime the region-specific and demographically representative monitoring of crime only began after the ANC came into power in 1994 (Blackmore, 2003) Impoverished Black African settlements = primary location of violent criminal incidences (Elder, 2003; Kynoch, 2005; Altbeker, 2007) Kynoch (2005, p496) believes apartheid produced urban environments in which violence frequently became a normative means of pursuing material interests, resolving conflicts and seeking justice. Few legitimate means for residents to escape Majority of offenders were located in the townships as well Face-value observations: 1. Ubiquitous influx control laws prohibited the free movement and association of black residents outside designated areas 2. Criminal gangs and local strongmen (often operating under the guise of vigilante groups) openly resided and operated in the townships (Kynoch, 2005) 3. Few informal control mechanisms criminals effectively had free reign 3

4 A spatial history of crime in South Africa Post-apartheid ( present) Magnitude of crime ISS (2012) 4

5 Spatial incidence of four broad factors: low social status and income a large and young family unskilled employment, and high residential mobility Factor 1: Social status and income Factor 2: Family characteristics Factor 3: Unskilled earner Factor 4: Residential mobility 5

6 Patterns of racial and spatial inequality linked to levels of offending are strongly interconnected Crime in South Africa is a problem of space not race Cause of violent offending Unemployment High residential mobility Cause of economic offending Unemployment High residential mobility Deprivation Cause of sexual offending Unemployment High residential mobility Informal settlements 6

7 Location of crime Cause of crime rates in Tshwane Unemployment Residential mobility Deprivation Location of crime Cause of violent crime in all neighbourhoods of Tshwane (n = 371) Divorced or separated, % Father deceased or estranged, % Young male population, % African citizen (non-rsa), % Cause of violent crime in Black African neighbourhoods (>75%) Unemployment, % Cause of violent crime in White neighbourhoods (>75%) Father deceased or estranged, % Young male population, % Cause of violent crime in Mixed neighbourhoods Father deceased or estranged, % Young male population, % African citizen (non-rsa), % 7

8 A spatial history of crime in South Africa Why the high crime? the post-apartheid influx of black African migrants (Berg & Schärf, 2004) a faulty and ill-equipped criminal justice system (Leggett, 2004) the ready availability of drugs and firearms (Maree, 2003) the breakdown of community and related principles of social organisation (Shaw, 2002) culture of violence that was nurtured and inculcated into South African society under apartheid (Maree, 2003) Altbeker (2007) believes the post-1994 crime wave has been driven by its own runaway internal energies rather than underlying social and economic conditions Macro-social patterns of racial and spatial inequalities (Breetzke, 2012) Can we be optimistic? What is the role of the SAPS? 8

9 The role of the SAPS Proactive and reactive policing YES Proactive and reactive policing The Pareto principle applies to South African crime distributions 20% of the causes produces 80% of the effects When it comes to epidemics, though, this disproportionality becomes even more extreme: a tiny percentage of people do the majority of the work. Malcolm Gladwell, The tipping point 9

10 Proactive and reactive policing 70 suburbs (19% of the suburbs of Tshwane) account for 82.5% of incarcerated offenders 12 suburbs (3% of the suburbs of Tshwane) account for 41% of incarcerated offenders Location of crime 80% of violent crime occurs in 25% (n = 92) of suburbs in Tshwane 80% of property crime occurs in 31% (n = 114) of suburbs of Tshwane 80% of murders occur in 23% (n = 88) of suburbs of Tshwane 80% of hijackings occur in 28% (n = 103) of suburbs of Tshwane 80% of assaults occur in 25% (n = 92) of suburbs of Tshwane Spatial solution 1) High-density saturation policing Reducing crime in South Africa by enforcing traffic laws a 'broken windscreen' approach (Bezuidenhout, 2011) 2) Be visible - market the police 3) Alcohol-free areas 10

11 The role of the SAPS Prevent crime NO Prevent crime Problemorientated policing Intelligence-led policing Communityorientated policing 11

12 Spatial solution Integrated inter-departmental national strategy that is predicated upon a rapid and rigorous upliftment of certain geographical regions of the country Basic infrastructures (the train for the rich; service delivery protests) Enjoyment infrastructures (CR) That is the paradox of the epidemic: that in order to create one contagious movement, you often have to create many small movements first. Malcolm Gladwell, The tipping point While private sector interests continue to play a determining role in effecting spatial change in the country, an increasing juxtaposition of prosperity and poverty transpires among the country s population that is still defined predominantly by race and place and reinforces residents of certain geographical locations of their own deprivation Prevent crime That, I suppose, continues because of the lack of consequences. If people continue to think they have done it before and nothing has happened to them, I guess the temptation is to continue to do it because nothing is done about it anyway. No lesson really seems to have been sent very clearly of what will happen if people transgress the rules. 12

13 Conclusion Crime and delinquency within certain regions of the country have created an ecological context that favours their perpetuation. Government policies have largely neglected the spatio-historical context in which crime is occurring. Failure to understand crime and its causes in ecological terms in the country will result in future policy discussions taking place in an analytical and empirical vacuum. Geographically targeted localised crime and policing strategies required based on empirical evidence Thank you Gregory D. Breetzke, PhD Department of Geography University of Canterbury Private Bag 4800 Christchurch 8140 NEW ZEALAND T: +64 (3) F: +64 (3) E: W: 13