THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF REMOVING UNAUTHORIZED IMMIGRANT WORKERS: Tom Jawetz Vice President for Immigration Policy 10/20/2016

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1 THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF REMOVING UNAUTHORIZED IMMIGRANT WORKERS: AN INDUSTRY- AND STATE-LEVEL ANALYSIS Tom Jawetz Vice President for Immigration Policy 10/20/2016

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3 Immigration policy in the last few years 2012: Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) : S.744: Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act 2014: Announcement of Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) and the expansion of DACA 2016: SCOTUS deadlocks in U.S. v. Texas, leaving DAPA and expanded DACA on hold

4 The Unauthorized Population Today 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants live in the country today million people live in mixed-status families, with both authorized and unauthorized members. The median length of time unauthorized immigrants have been in the U.S. is currently 13.6 years. These are people who are well-settled in our communities, schools, and workplaces. JOE RAEDLE/GETTY IMAGES

5 What Americans really think about immigration and mass deportation The majority of Americans oppose mass deportation and support commonsense immigration reform ABC News / Washington Post poll, September 2016 Only 15% of Americans support deporting all unauthorized immigrants in the country CNN poll, September % of Americans support legislation with an earned path to citizenship

6 So what would mass deportation of unauthorized workers mean for the nation? CAP s report finds an estimated 7 million unauthorized immigrants are in the workforce which is nearly 5 percent of the total workforce. The report looks at the economic impacts of mass deportation on all 50 states and the 12 major industries as identified by the Department of Labor. National Findings: Mass deportation of 7 million unauthorized workers would cost the nation $434.4 billion annually. Over 10 years, the cumulative losses in GDP would total $4.7 trillion. Federal revenue would decrease by nearly $900 billion over 10 years.

7 How much is $900 billion in the context of the federal budget? The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) (formerly known as the food stamp program) is projected to cost $721 billion over a decade. The entire budget of the Department of Education (think Pell grants, Student Aid, etc.) is $68 billion a year. A debt-free college program which would allow anyone to attend a public university without taking on student loan debt would cost $350-$415 billion over a decade to implement.

8 Industry-Level Effects

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10 There is little historical precedent for a change in domestic labor supply of this magnitude: The Great Recession of raised the unemployment rate by 4.5%. Real Gross Domestic Product, the inflation-adjusted measure of the value of all goods and services produced by the economy, dropped 4.2% during the Great Recession. CAP s report finds that mass deportation would reduce cumulative GDP by 2.6% in the long run.

11 How states would fare if all unauthorized workers were removed: California: -$103.3 billion in GDP annually North Carolina: -$10.6 billion in GDP annually New York: -$40.2 billion in GDP annually Texas: -$60.1 billion in GDP annually

12 How states would fare if all unauthorized workers were removed:

13 How states would fare if all unauthorized workers were removed:

14 Mass Deportation v. Immigration Reform In addition to the losses per industry that would come from removing unauthorized workers It would cost the country $114 billion, an average of $10,070 per person, to apprehend, detain, process, and physically remove 11.3 million unauthorized immigrants. Whereas Putting unauthorized immigrants on a pathway to citizenship would add a cumulative $1.2 trillion to GDP over a decade, increase the earnings of all Americans by $625 billion, and create an average of 145,000 new jobs each year.

15 September 21 Rollout Will deporting undocumented workers take us back to the Great Recession? Implementing a mass deportation of undocumented workers would reduce cumulative GDP over 10 years by $4.7 trillion a similar decline in revenue and employment caused by the Great Recession, according to a new study released today by the Center for American Progress. Morning Shift A report out today from the liberal Center for American Progress considers the potential economic impact of deporting all the unauthorized immigrants in the U.S Informe: Deportación masiva causaría perjuicios "severos" Una deportación masiva de inmigrantes sin permiso de residencia provocaría perjuicios económicos y fiscales severos a Estados Unidos, indicó un informe de un centro de investigaciones difundido el miércoles. Entre los estados más afectados estarían California, Texas y Nueva York, según el reporte del liberal Center for American Progress con sede en Washington. Turns Out That Deporting All the Undocumented Immigrants Would Cost America Trillions of Dollars Some people may be attempting to lead you to believe that the forceful deportation of the over 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States would be a key ingredient to Making America Great Again According to a new report from the admittedly left-leaning think tank the Center for American Progress, expelling the nation s undocumented workers would lead to a 1.4 percent drop in GDP a year.

16 CA: NV: October 6: Day of Action Press conference w/ SEIU Local 2015, United Service Workers West, CHIRLA, UCLA Labor Center, and LA City Councilmember Gil Cedillo. Press conference and community panel w/ Battle Born Progress, UNITE Here Culinary union, Mi Familia Vota, PLAN Action, iamerica Action, Nevada s Voice, and local and state elected officials. OH: Panel discussion w/ Ohio s Voice, Cleveland Jobs with Justice, Policy Matters Ohio, immigration attorney David Leopold, and Marilu Morales, whose husband was deported in IL: TX: NY: FWD.us targeted press outreach with the Illinois Science and Technology Coalition, Erie House, ICIRR, and the Chicago Office of New Americans. FWD.us targeted press outreach with MALDEF, the Dallas Sheriff s office, and the Workers Defense Project. FWD.us targeted press outreach with the Hudson Chamber of Commerce, and SheWorx.

17 Where do we go from here? And how can we use this report to help build the case for immigration reform?