PUBLIC OPINION AND NATIONAL DEFENCE

Transcription

1 PUBLIC OPINION AND NATIONAL DEFENCE Ordered by Ministry of Defence of Estonia TALLINN March 0

2 CONTENTS SUMMARY... BACKGROUND OF THE SURVEY... Methodology of the Survey... Sociopolitical background... MAIN RESULTS OF THE SURVEY.... Attitudes towards state of Estonia.... Confidence in institutions..... General background..... Defence structures.... Security and threats..... Security in the world and in Estonia..... Threats to Estonia..... Security guarantees.... Willingness to defend among population of Estonia..... Attitude towards active defence activities..... Desire to leave Estonia in the event of military threat Ability to act in the event of potential attack.... Defence capability of Estonia..... Assessment of defence capability of Estonia..... Views on volume of defence expenditures..... Assessment of state activities upon the development of national defence.... Defence structures of Estonia..... Contacts with defence structures..... Attitude towards conscript service Necessity of conscript service for young men Evasion of conscript service Alternative service Conscript service for women..... Attitudes towards professional army..... Image of professional military servicemen and their motives for career choice..... Tasks of Defence League...

3 . NATO..... Attitude towards membership in NATO..... NATO assistance in the event of potential threat..... NATO-Russia cooperation.... International military operations..... Attitude towards participation in international operations..... Arguments for participation in international operations..... Image of operation in Afghanistan.... Information related to national defence..... Initial military education in schools..... Continuation sheet of the weekly Eesti Ekspress: Riigikaitse.EE... Annexes: Annex Questionnaire in Annex Data tables

4 SUMMARY In March 0, on the order of the Ministry of Defence of Estonia, the social and market research company Saar Poll conducted a public opinion survey during which,00 residents of Estonia aged - were interviewed. In this Survey, general attitudes related to state of Estonia among citizens and non-citizens were mapped in different ways. Proceeding from the results, 0% of citizens are proud of holding their citizenship. As for non-citizens, % are willing to acquire citizenship of Estonia; this desire is mainly evident among persons without any citizenship. % of the population has been proud of being member of the European Union and 0% of NATO membership. Continuously or frequently, 0% feel this way for the EU and % for NATO. Compared to non-s, -speaking respondents are much more positively-minded both about state of Estonia and NATO membership. Among the ten surveyed institutions, Rescue Service is the most trustworthy (% confidence among population of Estonia aged -). In this ranking, Rescue Service is followed by Defence Forces (%), the Police (%), Defence League (%), the President (%) and NATO (%). Most institutions (except the European Union) are more trustworthy among the speaking population than among non-s. Compared to the preceding wave of survey, decrease in confidence in political institutions (esp. in the Prime Minister and the Government) is observed. Compared to the survey conducted in autumn 0, threat perception among the population has seen a slight decrease. More than half (%) of the population in Estonia predicts increases in instability and the probability of military conflict for the next decade. Like in earlier times, security situation in Estonia is perceived as somewhat more positive than situation in the world: % of the population predict the conditions to become more insecure, % of them think, however, that in ten years they would live in more secure conditions. As in preceding surveys, as the most probable threats impending Estonia the following are perceived: so-called cyber attacks against state information systems (in the coming years, % consider their occurrence very or rather probable), extensive marine pollution (0%), and interference of any foreign country into politics and economy in order to make influence in its own interests (%). Compared to earlier periods, occurrence of street riots is considered more probable (%; in October 0 %). For state of Estonia, NATO membership is still considered as the main security guarantee (% mention this as one of three important factors). Based on this Survey, development of Estonia's independent defence capability has gone up to nd place (%). It is followed by cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia (%) and membership in the European Union (%). Like in earlier times, -speaking respondents put primary emphasis on membership in NATO (%; of non-s %), non- population, however, sees the main security guarantee in cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia (%; of s %). To ensure comparability with preceding surveys, the results in this report have been analyzed not by ethnicity, but by the main language of communication.

5 With regard to the population, personal willingness to participate in defence activities is still lower than favouring armed defence activities at state level. In the event of foreign attack, armed resistance is considered certainly or probably necessary by %, but only % of the population would be willing to participate in defence activities using their own capabilities and skills. Yet, non- population is less willing to participate in defence activities than s (% vs. %). In a situation where Estonia is under attack, every fourth people would consider leaving Estonia: in such a situation, % would endeavour to leave certainly and % would do it probably. Population below 0 years would consider leaving Estonia more than seniors. Beginning from autumn 0, difference in attitudes between speakers and non- speakers has even increased: in the event of attack, % of -speaking and % of foreign-speaking population would endeavour to leave Estonia. Awareness of the population in acting in a threat situation is quite low: only every fifth of them would know what they can do to defend Estonia if the event of an attack by a foreign enemy. In last two waves of survey, number of residents in the know was smaller than earlier (-0%; previously -% of the population). However, it seems that people feel the need to obtain training on national defence, as initial military education in schools is favoured by 0% of the population of Estonia (% say it should certainly be and % say it should probably be included in study programme). More than the average, initial military education in schools is favoured by -speaking respondents and those of age 0 and over. When assessing Estonia s national defence, opinions of the people are divided in half: % of the people believe that, under foreign armed attack, it is possible to defend Estonia until the arrival of helping allies, but the same proportion thinks the opposite. -speaking residents compared to non-s are more optimistic about the opportunities to defend Estonia (% and % of respondents, respectively, believe that Estonia is defendable). State defence activities within last years in development of national defence are positively assessed by % of the population, % of the respondents have the opposite opinion. Compared to preceding wave of survey, number of those with favourable assessment has increased (in autumn 0, %). Assessing the volume of Estonia s defence expenditures, almost half (%) of the population believes that defence expenditures should be maintained at their current level. Increase in defence expenditures is favoured by % and decrease by % of the population. Compared to the survey conducted last autumn, the number of those favouring defence expenditures to be maintained at their current level or cutting them has increased. Like in earlier times, those favouring this increase are predominantly s, non- population is mostly in favour of defence spending cuts. As for the population of Estonia aged -, % has personal contacts with defence structures and 0% has indirect ones. Most of them are related to conscript service (% have been conscripts themselves and % of the respondents have friends or family members undergone conscription), followed by Defence League activities. Males and younger respondents have far more contacts with defence structures than females and seniors.

6 As for conscript service, population of Estonia has still a very favourable attitude towards this. Outright % of the population believes that young men need to undergo conscript service, with % believing that it is certainly necessary. As for the young men with minor health disorders, most of the population holds the opinion that they should also undergo conscript service: % think that it should be done certainly, % - in the event of appropriate training load. ¾ of the population holds the opinion that the young men refusing to undergo military service due to religious or moral reasons should have the right to be called up for alternative service (e.g. working at social welfare institutions, in schools for children with special needs etc.) Majority of the population of Estonia (%) disapproves evasion of conscript service - % condemn such a behavior and % consider this negative. The same population groups considering conscript service more necessary (i.e., above all, s and seniors) condemn the evasion of conscript service more than average. As for conscript service for women, it became evident that about / of the population agrees that women could undergo conscript service if they desire so % think then that women should undergo this based on a separate programme, 0% think it should be undergone under same conditions as young men. Only % is in favour of compulsory military service for women. One-third of the respondents hold the opinion that women should not undergo conscript service. About / of the population prefers the current defence concept (professional defence forces together with reserve forces consisting of those undergone conscript service) to be maintained. Switch to professional army only (and, thus, waiving compulsory military service) is favoured by % of the population (incl. % -speakers and % non- speakers). Attitudes of people towards professional military servicemen are predominantly good (%) or neutral, i.e. neither good nor bad (%). Compared to the preceding survey, volume of good attitudes has significantly increased (in autumn 0 %). The key factors influencing men to choose their career in the military service are opportunity to earn good salary, interest in the profession, and obtaining international-level training. This Survey has a new approach on the issues related to the tasks of Defence League. The main duty of Defence League, according to the population of Estonia, is to participate in rescue activities in the event of accidents and disasters (for %, this is one of the three main tasks); it is followed by establishment of capability for military defence of the state (%) and preparation for organised protection of civilian population in the event of a threat (%). In spring 0, Estonia s membership in NATO is favoured by % of the population, incl. % is certainly in favour. During the last waves of survey, attitudes of -speaking and non- speaking population have seen changes differing in directions: since August 0, -speaking population has demonstrated significantly better attitude towards NATO (% in favour, or % increase), while non- speakers have demonstrated the same volume of decrease (before %, currently %). As for guaranteeing security for Estonia, provision of direct military assistance is most commonly (%) seen as NATO s role. However, one-fifth of the population believes that, in the event of military threat, NATO would confine itself only to political and diplomatic support; about a tenth (%) thinks that, in the event of threat, there is no hope for help from NATO. About every fourth (%) believes that NATO membership can prevent a military conflict completely. Those

7 who favour NATO membership have higher hopes for NATO (i.e. believe in the direct military support or conflict prevention). Cooperation between NATO and Russia is favoured by about / of the population of Estonia: % think that Russia could be a member of NATO, % - that close military and political cooperation should be carried out, and % - that the cooperation should be limited to nonmilitary issues only. Non- speakers tend to favour closer cooperation between NATO and Russia more than s. More than half of the population (%) believes that Defence Forces units should in accordance with their capabilities to participate in international military operations. s have far more positive attitude towards participation in foreign missions than non-s (% vs. %). Like in earlier times, participation in international operations is considered necessary primarily for two reasons: participation gives our soldiers necessary real combat experience and provides NATO s assistance to Estonia in the event of potential threats. More specifically, it is evident that only % of the population is in favour of Estonia s continued participation in the Afghanistan mission; more than half (%) sees no need for it. Among s, support for continued participation in the Afghanistan mission is far bigger than among non- speakers (% and %, respectively). Attitudes towards EU s anti-piracy military operation in Somali waters are more positive: % believe that Estonia should carry on its participation in that operation. In the eyes of the population, image of the mission in Afghanistan is versatile. People have a clear positive attitude towards the professionalism of military servicemen, but at the same time they are more concerned about the safety of our military personnel and are not very certain about the necessity and effectiveness of the Afghanistan mission.

8 BACKGROUND OF THE SURVEY In March 0, on the order of the Ministry of Defence of Estonia, the social and market research company Saar Poll conducted a nationwide public opinion survey with the purpose to give an overview of attitudes and points of view on the following topics: - Attitudes towards state; - Confidence in institutions (incl. defence structures) among the population; - Assessments in connection with potential threats and security risks in Estonia and in the world; - Willingness to defend among the population and estimated behaviour in the event of potential threats impending Estonia; - Assessments of Estonia s defence capability and related state activities; - Attitude towards conscript service and other types of defence structures; - Attitude both towards NATO and associated developments; - Attitudes in relation to international military operations. This report presents the background of the Survey, provides an overview of its major results and includes a summary of the results. Annexes to the report are population poll questionnaire in and data tables for various socio-demographic characteristics. The report compares the results with those of similar public opinion surveys conducted in Benchmark data come from the data files of the Ordering Institution and from the reports of the years in question, which are publicly available on the website of the Ministry of Defence of Estonia. Methodology of the Survey Between March -, the market research company conducted a nationwide public opinion poll, in which using face-to-face interview and a paper questionnaire were interviewed,00 people aged -. Respondents were selected using proportional random selection method. Interviews were conducted by Saar Poll s experienced interviewers and they were held in and Russian. Interviews took place in 0 primary survey units (PSU), with an average of interviews per PSU. To diminish the differences occurred in comparison of Survey results and statistical model, the results were weighted by the following socio-demographic characteristics (Table ). For preparing the model with socio-demographic characteristics, data from population statistics as of January 0, 0 were used. Figure provides a more detailed overview of the respondents profile.

9 Table. Sample specification based on socio-demographic characteristics POPULATION GENDER Model (%) Reached sample (%) Weighted sample (%) Urban,0,0,0 Rural,0,0,0 Male,,, Female 0,, 0, AGE,,, -,,, 0-,,, 0-,,, 0- ETHNICITY * REGION 0-,,, 0-,,,, 0,, 0,, 0, Northern Estonia,,, Western Estonia,0,,0 Central Estonia,,, North-Eastern Estonia,,, Southern Estonia,,0, * To ensure comparability with preceding surveys, the results in this report have been analyzed not by ethnicity, but by the main language of communication. Although, for the interest of brevity, when referring to the respondents with the language of communication, the term "s" is sporadically used, and foreignspeaking respondents are referred sporadically to as non-s, one must keep in mind when reading the report that in spite of this, the comparison based on language of communication made throughout the Survey. Results by ethnicities can be examined from certain data tables (Annex ).

10 Figure. Respondents profile (%; N=0) GENDER Male Female AGE MAIN LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION NATIONALITY Stateless (alien's passport) EDUCATION Primary or basic Secondary or secondary vocational Higher MAIN ACTIVITY Businessman, entrepreneur Specialist Office employee, service personnel Unskilled worker (physical work) Pensioner At home, unemployed Pupil, student NET INCOME PER ONE MEMBER Less than More than 0 Difficult to say/refused FAMILY STATUS Married, cohabiting Divorced, separated Widowed Single RESIDENCE Tallinn city Rural area REGION Northern Estonia Western Estonia Central Estonia North-Eastern Estonia Southern Estonia

11 Results of the Survey are extendable to the population of Estonia aged -; thereby, in the event of per cent confidence level, max sampling error remains within.% (as for smaller subgroups, the error can be bigger). Table provides more detailed overview of relationship for sample size (i.e. number of respondents), proportion calculated from the sample (i.e. % of answers) and potential statistical error (i.e. potential faults in %). Table. Sampling error limitations % of answers/ Sample size 0% % or % 0% or 0% % or % 0% or 0% % or % 0% or 0% % or % % or 0% % or % % or % % or % 0, 0, 0,,,0,,,,,,, 0,,0, 0,0 0,0,,,,,,, 0,,,,0,0,,,,,0,,0 0,,,,,0,,0,0,0,,, 0,,,,,0,00,0,0,,0,, 0,,,0,0,0,,,0,,,, 0,,,,,,,,,0,,00, 0,,,,,0,,,,,,,0 0,,,,,,,,,0,0,, 0,0,,0,,,,,00,,,,,,,,,,0,,,,0,,,,,,,0,,,,,0,0,0,,,,0,,,,,,,,,00,00,,,,,0,,0,,, 00,,,,,,00,,,,0,, 00,,,,0,,0,,0,,,, 00,,,,,0,,,,,,, 00,,,,0,,00,,,0,, 0, 00,,,0,,,,,,,,0 0, 0,,,,0,,,,0,0, 0, 0, Sociopolitical background This section provides an overview of events in society and in the world in general, before and during the Survey period. As for the Survey conducted in March 0, the following phenomena with the potential of having formed the public opinion can be mentioned. Their directional effect on the Survey results is not always definable at times, an influencing factor performs as a single event, sometimes within influence of several factors, but on other occasions, development of specific events and deep engagement shall accumulate to a new quality.

12 Within the broader economic context, European debt crisis was still topical. Bond crisis in eurozone was deepening and, among substantial part of the population, establishment of stability fund created more negative attitudes towards the European Union. In this context, people would probably turn more attention to their daily coping. Compared to the preceding survey, the population saw decline in their real wages, where a large role was played by rise in prices of essential services and goods: foodstuff, fuel and heating. Significant decrease in real wage led to a strike of teachers in early March, supported by a number of specialties representatives. It was the largest protest action over the last decade. For the public opinion, an anti- ACTA protest campaign in February played definitely a very important role as well. It was the first and largest citizens' initiative a in the form of a protest, spontaneously organised through social networking sites. Beyond both the teachers' strike and anti-acta demonstrations, more general attitude of the population can be observed, not just being for or against a particular circumstance. Russian-speakers were certainly influenced by actions both in Tallinn and Narva, organised against teaching in in Russian schools. Signatures were collected against teaching in the language and there are attempts to transform municipal schools into private schools, which, pursuant to legislation, could continue to teach in the Russian language. Within the pre-survey period, there are a few important facts related to disclosure of against-thestate acts conducted by persons in high positions. Namely, in late February, i.e. several weeks before the start of inteviews, a high security police officer was arrested on suspicion of treason. A few months earlier, with the help of the media, a scandal related to sales of residence permits had erupted: it became evident that two politicians with Pro Patria background organised residence permits for Russian businessmen. Attitudes towards national defence matters on spring 0 could have been influenced by different circumstances. The Ministry of Defence achieved a major breakthrough within NATO: the Member States will continue air boundary surveillance of the Baltic States, although this time Estonia shall increase its corresponding financial contribution. Military parade on Independence Day gave many people a positive picture about Estonia s defence capability. However, the media reported a number of stories that the officers' salary would provide insufficient motivation to continue military service. In certain cases, Defence Minister Mart Laar's illness could influence the public opinion as well. In the wider context, situation in the Persian Gulf region became more complex: international efforts failed to stop bloodshed there. Relations between Iran and Israel have sharpened and, in the event of bad circumstances, a war with unpredictable scale may break out. During the interview period, no negative news were reported from Estonia's foreign missions (in early February, one of the soldiers was seriously wounded), but a number of U.S. soldiers got into scandals in Afghanistan, impairing significantly the situation in Afghanistan. Thus, the past period offered a broad range of different events, which shaped - one way or another - the views of the population in various topical issues.

13 MAIN RESULTS OF THE SURVEY. Attitudes towards state of Estonia In this wave of Survey, attitudes towards state of Estonia were measured in a different way. The respondents with citizenship of Estonia (N=) were asked to assess their pride in being a citizen of Estonia. The respondents not having citizenship of Estonia (N=) were asked about their willingness to obtain the citizenship. The results show that 0% of citizens of Estonia are proud of their citizenship, while every fourth is very proud (Figure ). One fifth (%) does not feel much proud of their citizenship of Estonia and % does not feel so at all. -speakers are much more proud of their citizenship than non- speakers among s, there are % of those feeling proud, but among non-s % only. Above average, this pride is felt among the respondents who are young, economically moderately or well better-off, in higher occupational positions and studying. Figure. Pride of being a citizen of Estonia (%; N = citizens of the Republic of Estonia) Very proud Rather proud Don't know Not so much Not at all 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TOTAL LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION 0 Among the people not having citizenship of Estonia, over a quarter (%) claim to be willing to obtain the citizenship. It is not desired by % and % of respondents remain undecides. Citizenship of Estonia arises interest, above all, among stateless people % of them are willing to obtain citizenship of Estonia (% of citizens of another country, % of citizens of Russia). Moreover, the results indicate that people aged 0 and over, among whom are also more citizens of Russia, citizenship of Estonia arises much less interest than among younger respondents. Alike the preceding survey, the respondents were also asked to assess whether they felt proud of Estonia s memberships in the European Union and NATO. Compared to October 0, as for these two institutions, overall picture is quite similar here (Figure ): 0% of the population has continuously or rather frequently been proud of Estonia s membership in the European Union and over % of membership in NATO. As for the other wing, it became evident that pride was never taken by % and %, respectively.

14 Figure. Feeling proud of state of Estonia s affiliation (%; N = all respondents) Continuously Rather frequently Don't know Occasionally Never 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Felt proud of Estonia's membership in the EU 0/0 0/ LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION Felt proud of Estonia's membership in NATO 0/0 0/ LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION Based on the language of communication, there are significant differences in the results about the European Union and NATO. While opinions about Estonia s membership in the European Union are quite similar (although among foreign-speaking respondents there are still some more who have never felt proud of), the -speaking population has taken a lot more pride in the NATO membership than non-s. Namely, outright % of foreign-speaking respondents say that they have never been proud of the fact that Estonia is a member of NATO. Among -speaking respondents only % would hold this opinion. As it was recognised in the report of the preceding wave of survey, negative attitude towards NATO among the foreign-speaking population is not a new phenomenon. What matters is not only Estonia s membership in NATO, but a more general negative attitude towards NATO which foreign-speaking population inherited from the Soviet era. This is a general image of the enemy, held not only by seniors, but also by younger people. This is one of the major stereotypes very tardy to disappear. Men's and women's attitudes towards membership in the European Union are very similar, men are still slightly more proud of NATO membership (% of men and % of women have been proud continuously or rather frequently). As for age, then for both organisations comes to light that, among those aged 0 or over, there are slightly more than average of those who have never been proud of Estonia s memberships. As for the European Union, there is a relationship that, among younger people, there are more of those who feel pride continuously or rather frequently; there is no such age-specific relationship concerning NATO.

15 . Confidence in institutions Second chapter deals with confidence of the population in state and international institutions. First, an overall picture of trustworthiness in all the institutions covered by the Survey is provided, thereupon changes in trust indicators of the Defence Forces and Defence League in the last ten years are examined... General background Respondents evaluated trustworthiness of the institutions using a scale with four answer categories: completely trust, rather trust, rather do not trust, don t trust at all. Among the ten institutions surveyed, people have the biggest confidence in Rescue Service % of Estonia s population aged - have confidence in it (Figure ). In this institutional trustworthiness ranking, Rescue Service is followed by Defence Forces (%), the Police (%), Defence League (%), the President (%) and NATO (%). Among the population, the least trustworthy are the Prime Minister, the Parliament (Riigikogu) and the Government - these institutions are distrusted more than trusted (-% have their confidence in them and -% have not). Figure. Institutional trustworthiness (%; N = all respondents) Trusts completely/rather Distrusts completely/rather Balance Rescue Service - Defence Forces Police Defence League NATO President European Union Government Riigikogu Prime Minister

16 Most institutions (excl. the European Union) have more confidence among -speaking population than among non-s (Figure ). The largest differences refer to the President (0% of -speaking population trust him completely or rather, while of foreign-speakers - %), Defence League (% vs. %), Prime Minister (% vs. %), Defence Forces (% vs. %), NATO (% vs. %) and the Government (0% vs. %), respectively. Figure. Institutional trustworthiness in the eyes of -speaking and foreign-speaking population (% of those who trust completely and rather; N = all respondents) Rescue Service Defence Forces Police Defence League NATO President 0 European Union Government 0 Parliament (Riigikogu) Prime Minister s Non-s Figure represents institutional trust balances or the proportion of the difference between those who have trusted and those who have distrusted during the last three years. Compared to the prior wave of survey, it becomes evident that all trust balances have decreased: by points for the Prime Minister, for the Government, for the Riigikogu, for the President. The remaining institutions have not seen significant changes compared to October 0. Such decrease in trustworthiness is in conformity with several phenomena within spring 0, when people showed their dissatisfaction (anti-acta demonstrations, teachers strike etc.). When examining in the long run, recent years have shown the most decreased confidence in the European Union. While until the beginning of 0, during several waves of survey, the European Union trust balance remained stable at ca 0 points, then, from Autumn 0, the confidence in the European Union has been constantly decreasing (only - points in the last two waves of survey). The latter is seems to be primarily related to solidly expanding debt crisis in the euro area, which has become a very tangible problem after euro was introduced in Estonia.

17 Figure. Institutional trust balances 00-0 (balance between those who trust and who distrust; N = all respondents) 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/0 0/0 00/ Rescue Service* Defence Forces Police** Defence League NATO President European Union Government Riigikogu Prime Minister * In 0/ wave of survey, it was asked about Rescue Service for the first time (in earlier surveys about Rescue Board). ** In intermediate waves of survey (0-0/0), questions about Police and Border Guard Board were asked.

18 0/000 0/000 /000 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/0 0/0 0/0 /0 0/0.. Defence structures In March 0, the Defence Forces, holding nd place in the trustworthiness ranking after Rescue Service, is trusted by % of the population of Estonia (Figure ). As in preceding years, the confidence level among -speaking population remains considerably higher than among non- s - the Defence Forces are completely trusted or is inclined to trust by % of s and % of non-s. While by autumn 0 trustworthiness of the Defence Forces had come down by percentage points, then now the number of those who trust has slightly increased (by % although). When examining the whole past decade, s confidence in the Defence Forces has increased rather steadily (altogether by ca 0 percentage points, remaining near 0% since 00). Among the foreignspeaking population, until the end of 00, there was also an uptrend, but after that the confidence level has been floating. The last times the confidence level fell low among non-s were in October 0 and in August 00. While in 00 it was a presumable reaction to statements by leaders in connection with Russia-Georgia conflict, then there is no unambiguous explanation to that decline in autumn 0. Figure. Confidence in the Defence Forces in 000-0; Comparison of assessments by speaking and foreign-speaking population (% of those who trust completely or rather trust; N = all respondents) ALL s Non-s As in preceding years, trustworthiness level of the Defence League comes is lower than of Defence Forces in March 0, the Defence League is trusted by % of the population of Estonia (Figure ). Again, trustworthiness-related assessments are higher among s than among foreignspeaking population: in this Survey, the Defence League is trusted by % of s (recordbreaking); as for non-s, however, only %. Proportion of those having confidence in the

19 0/000 0/000 /000 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/0 0/0 0/0 /0 0/0 Defence League has not changed significantly during the last two years (-% trust completely or rather completely). Thus, decline in the trust balance revealed in the preceding subsection (see Figure ) is not related to lessening of those not having confidence in the Defence League, but proportion of those not trusting has increased at the expense of those not capable of providing their assessment in earlier times (in two last waves of survey, there are -% hard to say" answers, in august 0 %). In the long run, the s' confidence in the Defence League has overcome a fairly steady increase (within a decade, by ca 0 percentage points); non- trust indicators have generally also improved (rising from 0% to -0%), but this temporal series contains a lot more ups and downs. Figure. Confidence in the Defence League in 000-0; Comparison of assessments by speaking and foreign-speaking population (% of those who trust completely or rather trust; N = all respondents) ALL s Non-s Security and threats Third chapter provides an overview of security issues: what kind of situation in the world and Estonia is expected in the coming decade, which threats are considered probable by the population in the coming years, and what would help to ensure the security of Estonia... Security in the world and in Estonia As of spring 0, more than half (%) of the population of Estonia aged - think that - in the coming decade - instability and probability of military conflict are going to increase (Figure ). The opposite view (i.e. predicting that the world becomes more secure) is shared by % and 0% of

20 0 people predict the situation to remain unchanged. Situation in Estonia is perceived by respondents somewhat more positive than situation in the world: % think that the population of Estonia would be living in more secure conditions than now, % have the opinion that the situation is not going to change, and % predict that conditions become less secure. Compared to the survey conducted in August 0, threat perception of the population has somewhat increased currently there are further estimations of military conflicts by percentage points and less secure conditions by percentage points than months ago. The change is largely caused by the respondents not able to provide their assessments in the last wave of survey. Figure. Situation in the world and in Estonia in the coming decade* (%; N = all respondents) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Situation in the world 0/0 0/ 0 0/0 0/0 0/0 Situation in Estonia 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/0 0/0 0 Situation becomes more secure Situation is not going to change Increased risk of military conflicts / situation less secure Don't know * Questions about the situation in Estonia and in the world were asked in different wording: - What do you think, in the coming decade, the world would become more secure and the risk of military conflict reduces, or, conversely, instability increases in the world and probability of military conflicts would grow? - What do you think, what would the situation in Estonia be? Would the population, in ten years from now, be living in more secure or more insecure [before 0/: in more conflict threatening] conditions? Upon assessment of local situation, compared to non-s, s tend to predict more secure conditions ( and per cent, respectively), less secure conditions by and %. With regard to the world situation estimates, there are no significant differences based on language of communication. When examining temporal comparison of the assessment provided of the situation in the world, it is evident that the figure showing bigger threat of military conflicts has been floating throughout the

21 0/000 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/0 0/0 0/0 /0 0/0 last decade within the range of -% (Figure ). Result of this Survey, under which % of the population estimates more military conflicts in the world for the coming decade, show that threat perception of the population of Estonia is currently higher than in most of earlier waves of survey. The partial reason could be in the escalating potential of military conflict between Iran and Israel, and bloodshed in Syria has not been worked out as well. Figure. Situation in the world in the coming decade; comparison (%; N = all respondents) 0 The world becomes more secure Increase in military threat potential Threats to Estonia For an overview of what people consider as the most probable threats to Estonia, the respondents were asked to assess different potentially impending threats in forthcoming years. For majority of listed risks, among respondents there were more of those considering the given threat improbable than those who felt that this could impend Estonia in the coming years (Figure ). However, there were three risks, for which more than half of respondents considered it very or rather probable that something like this could impend Estonia during the next years: % of people think an organised attack (the so-called cyber attack) against state information systems can happen in Estonia, 0% are of the opinion that extensive marine pollution can befall, and % believe that a foreign state can interfere to influence Estonia s policy or economy in their own interests. Probability of happening of other potential risks is considered smaller: mass street riots are very or rather probable for %, attack on citizens of Estonia in foreign countries for %, Estonia s economic collapse for 0%, clashes on ethnic or religious grounds between population groups %, and nuclear disaster at a nuclear power station close to Estonia for %, explosion of a fuel train in transit or in oil terminal for % and acts of terrorism for % of respondents. In people s opinion, the most improbable are military attacks: large-scale military attack by a foreign country and limited military attack against a strategic site were considered probable by % of the population.

22 Figure. Probability of different threats impending Estonia in forthcoming years (%; N = all respondents) Very probable Rather probable Don't know Not really probable Completely improbable 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Organised attacks against state information systems (so-called cyber attacks etc) 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 Extensive marine pollution 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 0 Foreign interference in Estonia's political or economic influence in their interest 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 0 Mass street riots 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 Attack against citizens of Estonia in a foreign country 0/0 0/ 0/0 Economic collapse of State of Estonia 0/0 0/ 0/0 Clashes on ethnic or religious grounds between population groups 0/0 0/ 0/0 Nuclear disaster at nuclear power station near Estonia 0/0 0/ 0/0 0 0 Explosion of oil train in transit or in fuel terminal 0/0 0/ 0/0 Act of terrorism 0/0 0/ 0/0 Limited military attack against a strategic site 0/0 0/ 0/ Large-scale military attack by a foreign country 0/0 0/ 0/0

23 Compared to preceding waves of survey, the biggest change taken place in assessments of the population is the issue of mass street riots; in October 0, this was considered probable by % of the population, but in March by % (almost one third and almost half, respectively). This fact is presumably related to the demonstrations held in spring 0 (e.g. support for teachers higher salaries and against ratification of the ACTA-agreement), showing that, in certain cases, people of Estonia are ready to go into the streets. As for the remaining threats, the temporal differences are minor. Figure. Probability of different threats impending Estonia in forthcoming years; comparison of assessments among -speaking and foreign-speaking population (%; N = all respondents) Very probable Rather probable Don't know Not really probable Completely improbable Organised attacks against state information systems (so-called cyber attacks etc) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 Extensive marine pollution Foreign interference in Estonia's political or economic influence in their interest Mass street riots 0 Attack against citizens of Estonia in a foreign country Economic collapse of State of Estonia 0 Clashes on ethnic or religious grounds between population groups Nuclear disaster at nuclear power station near Estonia 0 Explosion of oil train in transit or in fuel terminal Act of terrorism Limited military attack against a strategic site Large-scale military attack by a foreign country

24 When examining the results by respondents' main language of communication, the biggest differences are in threat perception of so-called cyber attacks and in economic collapse of the state (Figure ). Cyber attack threat is considered by -speaking respondents much more probable than by non-s (% and %, respectively), showing presumably the different information obtained. Economic collapse of state of Estonia in the forthcoming years is feared, above all, by foreign-speaking population (%, % of s), which may be linked to the fact that TV channels in Russia have provided information about miserable economic conditions in the Baltic States. Moreover, compared to s, non-s think that probability to happen is somewhat bigger for mass street riots (% vs. %) and clashes on ethnic or religious grounds between population groups (% vs. 0%). On the other hand, -speaking population considers slightly more probable (compared to non-s) an attack against citizens of Estonia in a foreign country (% vs. %) and explosion of a fuel train in transit or in oil terminal (% vs. %). In the event of threat of military attack, in particular, it is remarkable that, among non- s, there are more those respondents by whom both a large-scale military attack by a foreign country and a limited military attack against a strategic site are considered completely improbable... Security guarantees Similar to preceding surveys, respondents were asked to mention up to three important factors that they think would ensure maximum security to Estonia. Population of Estonia is on the opinion that the main guarantee is membership in NATO - this is mentioned as a major factor by two thirds of respondents (%) (Figure ). According to the Survey, it is followed by development of Estonia s own independent defence capability (%), cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia (%), membership in the European Union (%), defence cooperation with the Nordic countries and Baltic States (% and %, respectively), and Estonia s membership in the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (%). s and foreign-speaking population have still very different opinions. -speaking respondents put primary emphasis on membership in NATO (% mention this as one of the three most important security guarantees, among foreign-speaking population: only %); for the foreignspeaking population, the main security guarantee is cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia (%; among speakers: %). For -speaking population, second most important factor ensuring security is development of Estonia s independent defence (%; among foreign-speaking population: %), for non-s is apart from cooperation with Russia membership in the European Union a very important factor as well (%; among speakers: %). Moreover, upon ensuring security, foreign-speaking respondents, attach importance (more than s) to Estonia s membership in the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (% vs. %) and in the United Nations (% vs. %), s attach their importance more on cooperation and good relations with the United States ( vs. %) and participation in international military operations (% vs. %).

25 Figure. Security guarantees for Estonia (up to most important); comparison of assessments among -speaking and foreign-speaking population (%; N = all respondents) Membership in NATO Development of Estonia's independent defence capabilities Cooperation and good relations with Russia Membership in the European Union Defence cooperation between the Baltic states Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries Membership in OSCE Membership in UN Good relations and cooperation with the United States Participation in international military operations Don't know 0, 0,,0 ALL s Non-s Figure provides an overview of security guarantees for Estonia on the basis of six last waves of survey. Is become evident that within past three years, as for Estonia s security, roles of Russia and the European Union have been mentioned less and, in two last surveys, development of Estonia's independent defence capability has been regarded as more important. The latter change seems to be logical in the situation when NATO s role in Europe could decrease due to the U.S. plans to diminish their troops.

26 Figure. Security guarantees for Estonia (up to most important); 00-0 comparison (%; N = all respondents) Membership in NATO Development of Estonia's independent defence capabilities Cooperation and good relations with Russia* Membership in the European Union Defence cooperation between the Baltic states Defence cooperation with the Nordic countries Membership in OSCE Membership in UN Cooperation and good relations with the United States** Participation in international military operations , 0, 0 0/0 0/ 0/0 0/0 0/0 00/0 *Before the current wave of Survey (0/0) the formulation was Cooperation and good-neighbourly relations with Russia. ** Before the current wave of Survey (0/0) the formulation was Good relations with the Unites States.

27 . Willingness to defend among population of Estonia The fourth chapter deals with willingness to defend: at first, attitudes of the population towards active defence activities both at state and individual levels are depicted, thereupon desire to leave Estonia in the event of an attack, and finally - how the people are informed about how to protect Estonia in the event of possible attack... Attitude towards active defence activities Similar to earlier waves of survey, population s attitude towards active defence activities was mapped through two different questions: "In case Estonia is attacked by any country, should we, in any case, regardless of attacker, provide armed resistance?"; If Estonia is attacked, are you ready to participate in defence activities using your own competence and skills?". The first of these examines the attitudes towards the need for armed defence, the other the willingness of the population themselves to contribute to defence activities. In the event of foreign attack, armed resistance is regarded certainly necessary by % and probably necessary % of the population (Figure ). Thus, a total of % of the population is in favour of military resistance, it is regarded unnecessary by % of the population. -speaking respondents tend to consider armed resistance certainly necessary more than non-s (% of -speaking and % of foreign-speaking population, respectively). Moreover, armed resistance is considered certainly necessary by persons with lower level of education (% of people with basic education) and male respondents (%; 0% of women). Figure. Need for provision of armed resistance, if Estonia is attacked by any country (%; N = all respondents) Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TOTAL LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION 0 In spring 0, compared to some preceding waves of survey, proportion of the people considering armed resistance certainly necessary is slightly bigger (Figure ). The small change is presumably in compensation for respondents without opinion (currently %, last time %). When examining the entire decade of the survey period, it should be noted that the proportion of the population favouring armed resistance has gradually increased.

28 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/0 0/0 0/0 /0 0/0 0/000 0/000 /000 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 /00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/00 0/0 0/0 0/0 /0 0/0 Figure. Need for provision of armed resistance, if Estonia is attacked by a country; comparison* (%; N = all respondents) 0 Certainly/probably should provide armed resistance Certainly/probably should not provide armed resistance * Since the wave of survey of 0/, the question wording is amplified, regardless of attacker was added: "In the event of attack into Estonia, should we in any case, regardless of attacker, provide armed resistance?" Figure. Proportion of proponents for provision of armed resistance in the event of attack; comparison of -speaking and foreign-speaking population 00-0* (% of those considering resistance certainly and probably necessary; N = all respondents) s Non-s * Since the wave of survey of 0/, the question wording is amplified, regardless of attacker was added: "In case Estonia is attacked by a country, should we in any case, regardless of attacker, provide armed resistance?"

29 Figure reflects the proportion of attitudes of proponents for need for provision of armed resistance among -speaking and foreign-speaking population during the period of During the last six years, assessments of -speaking and foreign language population have been sometimes similar and sometimes different. In October 0, the attitudes were quite similar (% difference), resulting from the fact that this indicator went down among s and went up among non-s. In this wave of survey, the differences have somewhat increased: provision of armed resistance in the event of foreign attack is considered necessary by % of s and 0% of non-s. When examining the whole period, it becomes evident that s have been far more stable proponents of armed resistance than the foreign-speaking population (the latter group saw the fall in the support in 00 and 0). Similar to preceding survey it became evident also this year that population s willingness to participate personally in defence activities is lower than the proportion of proponents for armed defence activities at the state level. State-level armed resistance is considered necessary by %, however, but % of the population would be willing to participate in defence activities using their own capabilities and skills (Figure ). The Survey revealed further that % would be certainly and % probably willing to participate in defence activities. The opposite opinion is held by more than a third of respondents - % are certainly not and % are probably not willing to contribute to defence activities. % of the population is not able to assess their willingness. The other dissention being evident within favouring defence activities and personal willingness is related to different attitudes of s and non-s. On the state level, armed resistance is considered necessary by the foreign-language population slightly less than by s (0% vs. %), but willingness to participate themselves in defence activities using their capabilities and skills is substantially lower among the foreign-speaking population while % of s are willing to participate in defence activities, then only % of non-s are on the same opinion. Willingness to participate in defence activities is also higher among men (% and %, respectively). Figure. Willingness to participate in defence activities, if Estonia is attacked (%; N = all respondents) Yes, certainly Probably yes Don't know Probably not Certainly not 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% TOTAL LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION 0 GENDER Male Female 0 0 0