Shifting Attitudes, False Perceptions: recent Irish Immigration in Comparative Perspective

Transcription

1 Shifting Attitudes, False Perceptions: recent Irish Immigration in Comparative Perspective Cormac Ó Gráda University College Dublin, School of Economics Milan, April 22 nd, 2016 Conference on Immigration, Refugees and Asylum Policies

2 Immigration, Asylum, and Gender: Ireland and Beyond Kevin Denny and Cormac Ó Gráda University College Dublin

3 Immigration into Ireland: Relatively new phenomenon: Born outside IRL+UK+US: 1991: 40, : 0.5 million pread throughout country: Non-national share: 8.8% in Donegal 15.7% in Dublin

4 Immigration to Ireland since 2002 in Comparative Perspective

5 Unemployment GDP Quarterly Unemployment Rate GDP (Billions) The Irish Economy: Migration, GDP, and Unemployment

6 Q. Why has Ireland no UKIP, AfD, FN, LN? A. Does it depend on type of migrant? Muslims 3,873 49,204 African-born 26,515 54,419 Asian-born 28,132 79,021 B. Is it just a matter of time?

7 Ireland more pro-immigrant than average before recession; less so afterwards

8 European Social Survey: 2002 (Round 1)-2014 (Round 7) Widely used: e.g. Dustman et al. 2005; Sides and Citrin 2007; Hainmueller and Hiscox 2007; Dustman and Preston 2008; Héricourt and Spielvogel 2010; Markaki and Longhi 2013; Betz and Simpson 2013; Hatton 2015; Gorodzeisky and Semyonov 2015.

9 European Social Survey Advantages: Wide reach; seven waves so far; interesting range of questions Limitations: Response bias Comparing like with like? Endogeneity Compare Eurobarometer

10 Immigration and Public Opinion: Eurobarometer

11 Irish Attitudes in Comparative Perspective: ESS Round 6 Allow many/few immigrants from different race/ethnic group from majority Immigrants make country better or worse place to live in Country s culture is undermined by immigrants Immigration is bad/good for country s economy ESS Round 6 [n=29] 1 Sweden Iceland Finland Switzerland 2 Iceland Sweden Sweden Norway 3 Norway Denmark Iceland Iceland 27 Hungary Portugal Kazakhstan Slovakia 28 Israel Cyprus Russia Russia 29 Cyprus Russia Cyprus Cyprus Ireland Portugal Spain

12 Irish Attitudes in Comparative Perspective: ESS Round 7 Allow many/few immigrants from different race/ethnic group from majority Immigrants make country better or worse place to live in Country s culture is undermined by immigrants Immigration is bad/good for country s economy ESS Round 7 [n=15] 1 Sweden Sweden Sweden Switzerland 2 Norway Denmark Finland Sweden 3 Denmark Norway Denmark Denmark 13 Austria Slovenia Slovenia Belgium 14 Estonia Austria Austria Slovenia 15 Czech R Czech R Czech R Czech R Ireland

13 Some Replies to Allow many or few Muslims/Gypsies/Jews to come and live in country ALL IRELAND ALLOW: Jews Muslims Gypsies Jews Muslims Gypsies Many Some Few None Total

14 Some Replies to Allow many or few Muslims/Gypsies/Jews to come and live in country SWEDEN CZECH REPUBLIC ALLOW: Jews Muslims Gypsies Jews Muslims Gypsies Many Some Few None Total

15 Denny and Ó Gráda (2016) More hostile: Women, older people Less hostile: educated, socially liberal, politically left, no religion Being hard up impacted during crisis and after, but not before Unemployed: more anti-immigrant during crisis, not otherwise

16 Ireland and Asylum: Numbers and policy stance mirror UK experience Citizenship tourism Tough on asylum-seekers Citizenship Ceremonies

17 Asylum Seekers, Ireland and the UK

18 Citizenship Referendum, 2004 But vote was 80/20 YES

19 Irish Citizenship Ceremonies

20 Pregnancy tourism? Common belief some immigrant groups exploited law to gain citizenship Birth in Ireland => citizenship pre Booking in at one Dublin hospital Normally 1 st appointment ~ 180 days before birth

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23 Asylum controversial in early 2000s, Irish tolerant [4 th in R1, 5 th in R7] ESS R7 => More supportive: Older people, women, socially liberal and left; not being fearful; not being religious; being satisfied with life; trusting people and politicians; having contact with non-nationals. Xenophobia strongly linked to hostility towards asylum seekers

24 Women s attitudes More risk averse generally Different attitudes towards religiosity, politics, charity, policy More hostile to free trade and to immigration Why? Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition=> responses rather than characteristics

25 Voter Preferences, US

26 PERCEPTIONS OF LEVEL OF IMMIGRATION NOIMBRO in Round 7 [ Of every 100 people how many do you think are born outside country? ] On average, people over-estimate the level of immigration What characteristics predict this?

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28 Perceived Immigrant % of Population: Male [0] and Female[1]

29 PERCEPTIONS: Women more likely to overestimate Overestimation also linked to: Low educational levels Religiosity, politically right-wing Xenophobia Unhappy, unsatisfied, unhealthy Immigration not culturally enriching

30 The Gender Gap: Endowments or Characteristics? Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition => responses or characteristics: which matter more? As before, it is women s response are different

31 CONCLUSIONS: Irish attitudes have evolved Irish softer on asylum than migration Asylum exploited in past Gender differences Perceptions of immigrant presence