The Ties that Bind. JiYoung Park and Ha Hwang (with Shen Hao Chang, Nathan Attard, Samuel Wells, Changhyeon Kwon, and Kathryn Friedman)
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1 The Ties that Bind Economic Implications of the U.S.-Canada Border Crossings: Applying a Bi-national Trade Network Model for International Freight Movements JiYoung Park and Ha Hwang (with Shen Hao Chang, Nathan Attard, Samuel Wells, Changhyeon Kwon, and Kathryn Friedman) University at Buffalo, The State University of New York
2 The Ties that Need to Bind Bi-national economic structure data Bi-national trade data Bi-national highway network data Border wait time data
3 A Bi-national Economic Structure U.S. National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) State level NIEMO is an MRIO of the 50 states and DC for 47 industrial sectors (the USC Sectors ). The major data sources are the Minnesota IMPLAN Group s IMPLAN model and the U.S. Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) The model estimates a large number of intra- and interstate shipments Include demand-side and supply-side versions Canadian Multiregioinal Economic Model - Province level To combine both economic models, matching difference sectoral definitions is an issue (under-developing).
4 A Bi-national Trade US and Canada: The largest bi-national trade relationship in the world US$1.8 billion/day (2010) U.S. exports grew at a rate of 5.21%, outpacing the growth of imports (2.00%) Vehicles and related components, industrial machinery, and electrical machinery are the top three commodities It is critical to investigate the freight flow of individual border crossings to further understand bi-national trade relationship YTD Nov Imports* 149, , , ,337 Exports 164, , , ,482 Total 315, , , ,819 Unit: US$ (millions) Source: * Imports denotes freight flows from Canada to US
5 A Bi-National Highway Network A significant amount of US-Canada freight moves via border crossings. Disruption of bi-national freight network could cause tremendous world-wide economic consequences. Border crossings closure (natural disasters, infrastructure disruptions, epidemics) Border security enhancement (threats of terrorisms) Especially, congestion (or border wait time) on border crossings is casually experienced.
6 Border Wait Time U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency (CBPA) Website lists border wait time and open inspection lanes (RSS) Hourly data on 29 border crossings is monitored 5 crossings are excluded as they prohibit commercial traffic Increased border wait time results in an increase in travel time or travel distance for trucks Increased travel cost adversely affects bi-national supply chains Demystifying the trends and characteristics of border wait time at different border bridges is important
7 Border Wait Time: An Example The longest average wait time was at noon. The average delay time is 1.45 minutes. Blaine-Pacific Highway, Buffalo/Niagara Falls-Peace Bridge, Detroit- Ambassador Bridge, Detroit-Windsor Tunnel, and Sumas over 3 minutes
8 Border Wait Time (continued) Correlation between average delay time and number of dedicated commercial vehicle lanes (=0.8) However, the average delay time misses time variations (seasonality and hourly/daily/weekly/monthly variations) and is different by direction of trade flow.
9 Border Wait Time between Ontario and New York Peace Bridge (PB) and Lewiston-Queenston Bridge (LQ) Hourly average of border wait time for commercial vehicle data 17,251 observation collected from April to August 2014 An automated program has been developed.
10 Border Wait Time Variations (Hourly and Trade Direction) Truck Class No delay percentage Overall truck average Overall truck average wait time (min) positive wait time (min) To US via PB 67.8% To US via LQ 83.6% To CAN via PB 89.0% To CAN via LQ 92.0%
11 Border Wait Time Variations (Monthly and Trade Direction)
12 Processing of Binational Trade Data Bi-national trade data on border crossings are collected from WISERTrade, which focuses on port entries via border crossings on highways Amount and flow of freight on every border crossing Origin/destination states/provinces By commodity types, in US dollars and tonnage value
13 Trade Network Data via Border Crossings Connecting US and Canadian border crossings through highways 138 border crossings (69 border crossings for each country) are connected using ArcGIS 10.1 A trade network dataset is combined with a bi-national highway network dataset (under-developing) US Border Crossing l CAN Border Crossing m
14 HS Code* Descriptive Statistics Export Import Total CAN US CAN US CAN Value** TEU*** Value TEU Value TEU Value TEU Value TEU 44 3, ,687 1, ,197 1, ,812 1, ,568 7,952 1,466, , ,019 3, ,318 3, ,526 2, ,608 13,343 1,421, , ,990 1, ,058 1, ,411 1, ,171 7, , , ,129 3, ,428 3, ,890 2, ,369 13, , , ,261 32, ,412 32, ,291 21, , , , , ,521 7, ,610 7, ,087 4, ,604 25, , , ,241 1, ,413 1, ,080 1,074 74,492 6, , , , , ,951 3, , , , , , ,964 3, , ,942 72,626 24,966 90,920 24,887 90,632 15,051 54,815 84, , , , , ,260 1, , , , , ,065 2, , , , , , , ,307 69,119 2,447 51,154 2,450 51,210 1,756 36,705 9, , ,514 65,236 1,998 51,843 1,956 50,739 1,427 37,019 7, , , , , ,738 1, , ,011 50,703 1,902 47,948 1,902 47,945 1,454 36,657 7, , ,334 37,814 4,793 54,369 4,790 54,331 2,310 26,204 15, , ,032 1,162 48,797 1,153 48, ,533 3, , ,597 36,066 2,342 32,528 2,347 32,594 2,072 28,767 9, , ,481 22,333 2,568 38,739 2,578 38,889 1,035 15,605 7, , , , , , , ,980 40, , ,066 2,262 46,211 5, , , , , ,846 2, , ,654 1,086 37,494 1,092 37, ,266 2,812 97,109 Notes: *Harmonized System Code. Refer Appendix 3 to the HS code sector definition **Value in US Dollars (millions), ***Twenty-foot equivalent unit
15 Descriptive Statistics (continued) Province Export Import Total /State Value* TEU** Value TEU Value TEU Canada 143,933 3,428, ,509 2,875, ,442 6,303,735 ON 91,652 1,592,749 96,757 1,788, ,408 3,380,970 QC 27, ,869 8, ,876 36,341 1,053,745 BC 6, ,925 12, ,388 19, ,313 AB 6, ,551 6, ,247 12, ,798 MB 5, ,786 11, ,840 16, ,625 U.S.A 144,104 2,822,975 93,496 2,204, ,600 5,027,334 MI 18, ,977 22, ,407 40, ,384 OH 14, ,356 5, ,049 19, ,404 WA 4, ,620 3, ,828 8, ,448 IL 10, ,107 6, ,656 16, ,762 CA 7, ,254 6, ,998 13, ,252 IN 8, ,151 5, ,520 14, ,670 TX 7,304 98,696 6,398 89,848 13, ,544 NY 4, ,366 1,720 80,937 6, ,303 ND 1,420 76,657 1, ,311 3, ,969 WI 5, ,182 2,411 78,178 8, ,360 Notes: *Value in US Dollars (millions), **Twenty-foot equivalent unit
16 Top 5 Border Crossings Note: Red circles represent the magnitude of trade flow in US Dollars; larger circles indicate greater magnitudes. But top 5 border crossings are selected by TEU.
17 Network Setting Trade Network Analysis Multimodal network: two sets of nodes States and Provinces (origins/destinations) Border crossings Edges Freight flow between different set of nodes Weight: Corresponding TEU
18 Centrality of Border Crossings Weighted Eigenvector Score (WES)
19 Centrality Results Rank Border Crossing Bridge WES Rank State/ WES Province 1 Detroit-Ambassador Bridge (MI)* 7.69E-01** 1 ON 1.00E+00 (CAN)*** 2 Buffalo-Peace Bridge (NY) 7.23E-01 2 QC (CAN) 9.01E-02 3 Port Huron (MI) 3.64E-01 3 BC (CAN) 3.19E-03 4 Blaine-Pacific Highway (WA) 3.56E-01 4 MB (CAN) 1.72E-03 5 Champlain (NY) 2.65E-01 5 AB (CAN) 1.25E-03 6 Alexandria Bay (NY) 2.84E-02 6 SK (CAN) 4.99E-04 7 Ogdensburg (NY) 1.43E-02 7 NB (CAN) 1.08E-05 8 Sweetgrass (MT) 1.10E-02 8 MI (US) 2.61E-16 9 Pembina (ND) 1.02E-02 9 CA (US) 9.78E Highgate Springs (VT) 8.95E IL (US) 9.78E Sault Ste. Marie (MI) 4.84E TX (US) 9.78E Portal (ND) 3.94E OH (US) 6.52E Derby Line Rt. 91 (VT) 3.03E WA (US) 6.52E Sumas (WA) 1.39E IN (US) 4.35E Massena (NY) 1.00E TN (US) 3.80E Calais (ME) 9.20E GA (US) 2.72E Eastport (ID) 8.10E MO (US) 2.72E Jackman (ME) 6.32E KS (US) 2.45E Norton (VT) 6.11E KY (US) 2.45E Grand Portage (MN) 5.24E OK (US) 1.90E-17 *This refers to the relevant state or province where the border crossing bridge is located. For the abbreviations of US states and Canadian provinces, see Appendix 2 **7.69E-01, and subsequent numbers in this form, are condensed using scientific notation, and should be understood as , or.769 ***This refers to the relevant countries. CAN stands for Canada; and US, United States.
20 Trade Network Scope Based on top 5 border crossings, major regional bodies were selected. Diverse origin states in US vs. one dominant province of origin in Canada Canadian imports are distributed nation-wide while American imports are consumed in an adjacent province Deepening economic division between the East and the rest in Canada
21 US import from Canada
22 US export to Canada
23 Conclusions We built four bi-national datasets: economic structure, trade, highway network, and border wait time. Developing a bi-national trade network model, Ontario in the East and British Columbia in the West are the dominant provinces in Canada while Michigan, Ohio, Washington, and Illinois are the top states in the US. Applying the trade network analysis, Detroit, Buffalo, Port Huron Bridge, Blaine-Pacific Highway Crossing, and Champlain Crossing are the top five port entries via border crossings. Binational trade activities are relatively localized in Canada while those in the US are dispersed. A small number of border bridges play a key role in connecting the US and Canadian economies An unexpected disruption on one of these border bridges could result in severe traffic delays, adversely impacting both regional and global supply chains
24 Future Directions Construct a full package of datasets and a bi-national TransNIEMO. Extend to add similar datasets of US-Mexico to build a NAFTA model. Develop a spatially decomposed model representing metropolitan areas in each state and province Investigate whether an increase in border bridge capacity will reduce the congestion that adversely affects neighboring economies
25 Future Directions Investigate the impact of a network disruption on tourism policy e.g. the Niagara River Corridor, where prominent attractions exist on both sides of the border Evaluate various performance measures for border crossing infrastructures
26 Thank You!
27 Fromnode ID ID Code ($US) Flow To-node HS2 Freight Value Freight TEU Country 103 ME US Import 103 ME US Import 103 NH US Import 103 NY US Import 105 MA US Import 105 ME US Import AK US Export AK US Export AK US Export AK US Export AK US Export AK US Export 205 NB CA Import 205 NB CA Import 205 NB CA Import 205 NB CA Import 205 NB CA Import 205 NB CA Import AB CA Export AB CA Export AB CA Export AB CA Export AB CA Export AB CA Export
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