Changing Forces, Changing City. By Kim Walesh, City of San Jose
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1 Changing Forces, Changing City By Kim Walesh, City of San Jose
2 The world is becoming more urban 10% 50% 75%
3 We face critical decisions about the kind of city San Jose should become in the future
4 We know the next 30 years will be fundamentally different than the last
5 We need to plan for San Jose to succeed in an uncertain future
6 Consider how we can anticipate and harness forces of change Demographic Economic Environmental
7 Demographics: Dramatic Shifts
8 Growth shifts to seniors, young adults
9 What Will Aging Boomers Want? Dan May
10 Young professionals are key to prosperity
11 Live First/Work Second is their mantra
12 Young professionals prefer central city locations 1980: 10% more likely 2000: 33% more likely
13 USC Demographic Futures Project Immigrants are essential for workforce growth!! Immigrants and children of immigrants!! 100% of net additions to CA workforce
14 Increased workforce reliance on children of immigrants million million
15 A community of newcomers: ranked #1 nationally 36.4% Foreign-Born 10.2% Arrived Since 2000
16 Global brain circulation accelerates innovation
17 Cities that can t attract young professionals and immigrants will shrink!
18 Household structure will shift
19 Households without children become the strong majority Households with children Households without children --single person households 48% 33% 27% 52% 67% 73% 13% 26% 29%
20 Rapid growth in single households, especially women
21 Significant Change in Housing Demand Projected Nationally!! Nationally, households without children will account for close to 90% of new housing demand to 2030; singleperson households will account for 33%!! Demand for attached and small-lot housing will exceed current supply by 35 million units, while demand for large-lot housing will actually be less than current supply!! Growing preference for compact, walkable neighborhoods among single adults, empty nesters, and couples w/out children
22 Today, SJ Has Slightly Lower Share of Households Without Children Households with children Households without children --single person households San Jose 2007 Nation % 31% 63% 69% 22% 27% Households without children are still a strong majority in San Jose; one in five is a single household.
23 Changed SJ Housing Demand to 2030: 87% New Household Growth Is 55+
24 After 2030, Growth in Family-Age Households Resumes
25 Economics: Cities Compete on Global Stage
26 The world is competitive and connected
27 Economic power is shifting to Asia, growth is in emerging economies
28 City-regions compete; Many other innovation leaders Joint Venture: Silicon Valley, Richard Florida
29 Demand will rise for educated workers
30 Growing demand for collegeeducated workers
31 Shortages predicted; California is not prepared
32 Wide Gender Gap in College Graduation
33 Economic returns to education will increase, widening income gap Late 1970s Today 20% 85%
34 Creativity fuels innovation Insert triangle: creativity innovation
35 Right Brain is becoming as important as Left Brain Logical Mathematical Linear Sequential Verbal Rational Intuitive Artistic Nonlinear Simultaneous Visual Emotional
36 Business: New Ways to Work Emerge
37 More Entrepreneurs and Free Agents
38 The mobile, networked office is here
39 Office space is dramatically underutilized Insert photo of empty cubicles
40 Everyone doesn t need an office, everyday Fully Mobile Home/ Third Place Internally Mobile Anchor
41 Mobility cuts costs, lowers carbon footprint, benefits employees Decreases Decreases
42 Quality places are even more important in age of creativity, mobility
43 Innovation requires interaction, face-to-face
44 There is greater reliance on shared amenities and public space Support Services Restaurants Recreation/Fitness Cafes, Coffee
45 The shift from industrial parks to innovation districts is widespread
46 Environment: Cities Viewed as Solution
47 San Jose at Forefront: Grow in Environmentally Sustainable Way
48 High gas prices are altering the real estate landscape
49 Growth of suburban housing and outlying communities was predicated on cheap gas
50 Nationally, home price decline is correlated with auto dependence
51 Cities will be designed for less driving
52 On per capita basis, denser cities have less environmental impact
53 Green dividends will accrue to smart cities
54 Less driving saves money for families and sparks the economy Portland $2.3 billion Chicago $3.2 billion
55
56
57 We can harness forces of change to be a model city Demographic Economic Environmental
58 What Do You Think? Kim Walesh Chief Strategist City of San Jose
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