Voices of Opportunity Luncheon. February 18, 2009

Transcription

1 Voices of Opportunity Luncheon February 18, 2009

2 Strategic Summary 2 The Current Mood: Americans are worried about the economy and think the country is on the wrong track. They are not confident that Congress can solve our problems, though their impressions of Congress improve when Congress gets things done. President Obama, however, inspires confidence in his economic plans and his overall leadership. The Economy: Anxiety is high about the economy with an eye toward good paying jobs and pocketbook issues such as health care costs. The Stimulus Plan: Most Americans thought the stimulus plan was a good idea, although party ID was a strong indicator of their support, with independents tipping toward support. Health Care: Voters concerns about health care are largely connected to their economic worries. Medical bills are the number one cause of bankruptcy, and the pocketbook anxiety that health care costs cause permeate. Energy: Voters see that a new energy policy can be something of a panacea for our problems with the economy, the Middle East, and other oil-producing countries, and secondarily a fix for our environmental concerns. Colorado: Though Democrats have enjoyed banner years, voters are worried about the economy and as in many states, critical of their state leadership. The next year will be key in statewide policy work and to set the stage for the 2010 gubernatorial and US Senate elections. The Emerging West: Progressives can remain cautiously optimistic about developing politics in the West, but work is needed to protect the gains.

3 The Current Mood Americans are worried about the economy, and they re not confident that Congress can solve our problems. They are confident in President Obama s economic plans and leadership ablities.

4 The vast majority of people continue to think the country is on the wrong track. 100% 75% 75% 78% 68% 50% Wrong track Right track 25% 20% 19% 23% 0% Nov 08 Jan 08 Feb 09 4 Source: CNN exit polls 11/2/2008, ABC News/Washington Post January 13-16, ,079 adults nationwide, CBS News, February 2-February 4, adults nationwide.

5 Clearly voters were looking for change; two-thirds thirds of voters who believed the country was on the wrong track in November voted for Obama on Election Day. Vote by Direction of the Country 71% 62% 27% 36% Obama McCain Right Direction Wrong Track 5 (20%) (75%) Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

6 The rising tide for change lifted many Democratic boats. Even voters who disapproved of the job the Democratic Congress was doing voted for Democrats in Congressional races. House Vote by Congressional Job Approval 55% 42% 62% 35% 56% 41% 47% 51% Democrats Republicans Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove 6 Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008

7 Pre-inauguration, expectations of Obama were high. And three weeks later, 6 out of 10 approve of the job he s s doing as President. January 13-16, 2009 February 2-4, % 34% 62% 33% 14% 23% 7% 15% High Low Moderate Approve Disapprove Don't Know/No Answer 7 Source: ABC News/Washington Post. January 13-16, ,079 adults nationwide. CBS News, February 2-February 4, adults nationwide.

8 Americans are fairly confident that Obama will make the right decisions. They are much less confident that Congress will make the right decisions, and confidence in Republicans is especially low. How much confidence do you have in. To make the right decisions for the country s future a great deal of confidence, a good amount, just some or not at all? Barack Obama -37% -9% 31% 61% Congressional Democrats -56% -19% 15% 43% Congressional Republicans -70% -21% 8% 29% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Not at all Just some Great deal Good amount 8 Source: ABC News/Washington Post. January 13-16, ,079 adults nationwide.

9 Since Obama has been in office, Americans report being more confident in his abilities than they were before his inauguration. Thinking back to the way you felt before Barack Obama took office, would you say you now have -- in the Obama administration's -- 60% 40% 20% 55% 25% 51% 27% 17% 18% More confidence No change Less confidence 0% Ability to improve the economy Ability to manage the federal government 9 Source: USA Today/Gallup. Feb 4, ,012 adults nationwide.

10 The economy dominated the election, and remains the most important issue to three quarters of Americans. Most Important Issue Facing the Country Economy 63% War in Iraq 10% 6% 75% Healthcare Terrorism Energy Policy 9% 7% 9% 6% 7% Exit Polls Jan-09 Illegal Immigration 5% 10 Source: National Election Pool Exit Poll, CNN January 12-15, 2009

11 The Economy

12 The economy is not only the most important issue, it s the most urgent. Three out of four people think it should be a highest priority for Obama and Congress. For each issue I name, please tell me what kind of priority you think Obama and the Congress should give it the highest priority, a high priority, but not the highest, or a lower priority than that?... Economy US campaign against terrorism* Federal budget deficit* Education* Health care* Situation in Iraq* Situation in Afghanistan* Taxes* Situation between Israel and the Palestinians* Immigration issues* Global warming* 12 76% 50% 48% 42% 41% 41% 37% 23% 21% 21% 17% Higest priority 98% 93% 88% 91% 89% 89% 85% 81% 71% 69% 58% High priority Source: ABC News/Washington Post. January 13-16, ,079 adults nationwide.

13 Among economic issues, most people think unemployment is the most important. The Most Important Economic Issue Facing the Country Today Unemployment 52% Budget deficit Mortgages Inflation Taxes Stock Market 15% 12% 7% 7% 6% 13 Source: CNN/Opinion Research. January 12-15, ,245 adults nationwide.

14 The frequency of words used in Obama s s statement at his Feb 9 th press conference also demonstrate that keeping and creating jobs is a top priority.

15 The Recovery Plan

16 Almost half of Americans are very concerned that within the next year someone in their household could be laid off. How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job? 27% 1% Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned Don't know 44% 28% 16 Source:CBS News February 2-4, adults nationwide.

17 Despite believing in Obama, voters are divided over whether the economic recovery package will help their families financial situations How do you think Obama's economic stimulus plan would affect you and your family's financial situation? 60% 44% 40% 20% 41% 0% 12% 12% Make it better Not affect it Make it worse 17 Source: Gallup Organization. January 30-February 1, ,027 adults nationwide.

18 And they also have doubts that the recovery package will help shorten the recession. Do you think the economic bill being negotiated by the President and Congress will shorten the length of the current recession, or not? 39% 45% 21% 16% Yes No Don't know 18 Source: CBS News February 2-4, adults nationwide.

19 Very few voters think Congress is moving too fast, while the rest split between thinking Congress is moving slowly or at about the right pace. In response to the current economic crisis, do you think Congress is moving... 7% 16% Too fast Too slowly 39% Right pace Don't know 38% 19 Source: CBS News February 2-4, adults nationwide.

20 Half of Americans think this economic downturn will not be short-lived; more than half think it will last at least two additional years. How long do you think the current recession will last? More than two years 22% Two years 31% A year 30% Six months 9% 20 Source: CBS News February 2-4, adults nationwide.

21 Americans are tax-sensitive and six in ten think reduced taxes would do more to help get us out of the recession than increased spending. In your opinion which will do more to get the US (United States) out of the current recession: increasing government spending, or reducing taxes? 7% 7% 8% 16% Increasing government spending Reducing taxes Both Neither Don't Know 62% 21 Source: CBS News February 2-4, adults nationwide.

22 Americans want action; before the recovery plan was passed over half supported a larger plan, and just under half supported a smaller plan. However, support for the recovery plan divides clearly along party lines. Independents join Democrats in favoring the plan but Republicans are definitely opposed. 40% 1. As you may know, Congress is considering a new economic stimulus package of at least 800 billion dollars. Do you favor or oppose Congress passing this legislation? 2. Would you favor or oppose Congress passing a smaller economic stimulus package that would cut the size by up to 200 billion dollars? 38% 37% 30% 33% 30% 32% 20% 24% 21% 15% Favor both Favor larger plan only Favor smaller plan only Favor neither 10% 12% 9% 12% 11% 22 0% Democrats Independents Republicans Source: Gallup Organization. February 4, ,012 adults nationally.

23 Obama also has the public s s trust when it comes to his efforts on the recovery plan; the public splits over the way Democrats have handled themselves, and disapprove of Republicans. Do you approve or disapprove of the way each of the following has handled the government's efforts to pass an economic stimulus bill? 80% 60% 40% 20% 67% 25% 58% 48% 42% 31% 8% 10% 11% Approve Disapprove No opinion 0% President Barack Obama The Democrats in Congress The Republicans in Congress 23 Source: Gallup. Feb 6-7, ,018 adults nationwide.

24 Before the compromise final legislation, the Senate recovery bill included more tax cuts (especially for individuals) and slightly less spending, while the House version included more aid to states, more aid for low-income families, and more for education. House Senate Low-income families Aid to States Business Education Energy Health Care Other Science & Technology Tax Cuts (individual) Transportation & Infrastructure 24 Source: ProPublica 2/10/2009

25 A word-cloud analysis of the House bill shows that the word health was a big part of their plan, used as a modifier in many parts of the plan: forest health, healthy homes and its more traditional use related to healthcare. 25

26 The final package, signed in Denver on Tuesday, included $318,722,800,000 in spending and $480,533,000,000 in tax cuts. Aid to People Aid to State & Local Governments Business Education Energy Health Care Other Science & Technology Transportation & Infrastructure Individual Tax Cuts Business Tax Incentives Accountability Spending Tax Cuts 26 Source: ProPublica 2/10/2009

27 Message themes for the recovery plan: Opportunity: As the recovery plan moves forward, the administration should stress its intention to create opportunity in America and rebuild a strong and vibrant middle class. Accountability: From Wall Street to the White House, Americans are wondering what happened to the idea of America as a nation of laws and holding people, corporations, and government accountable for their actions. Broad-Based Prosperity: The strongest language remains populist in tone and centers on reversing the trend of the disappearing middle class and the American Dream getting harder to achieve for the next generation. Long-term solutions Economic recovery Talk about this Immediate action: shovel-ready jobs, developing energy technology Instead of this Quick fixes Public investment Long-term infrastructure 27

28 Health Care

29 When the economy is taken out of the mix, health care is voters top priority for President Obama. Other than the economy, what should be the President's top priority? Health care 36% Energy 22% Iraq Relations with US allies 13% 15% Afghanistan 9% Don't know 5% 29 Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates International/Newsweek Poll January 2009

30 Health care is the top personal economic concern to voters even ahead of jobs and the rising costs of consumer goods. Most Important Economic Problem Personally Health care 21% 38% Rising costs of gas and food 19% 33% Jobs 14% 24% Most important Retirement savings Affordable housing 8% 7% 17% 13% Most/second most important Being able to live on a fixed income 5% 10% Schools and education 5% 17% Stock market Medicare Fear of another terrorist attack Crime, drugs and gangs 5% 4% 4% 3% 11% 9% 8% 7% 30 Source: Partnership for Chronic Disease, conducted by LRP and VCR, Oct ,500 likely voters nationwide.

31 Seven in ten Americans are confident Obama will make health care more accessible and affordable. Confidence Obama will make health care more accessible and affordable 69% 27% 28% Confident 10% Not Confident 31 Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates International/Newsweek Poll January 2009

32 Voters are most likely to say that making quality health care affordable for families and businesses would help stimulate the economy and help American families. Health care is significantly ahead of other proposals. Now, I am going to read you a series of proposals that have been offered as a way to stimulate the economy / and help American families. Of the following proposals, which do you think would most help the strengthen the economy / most help you? Make quality health care more affordable for families and businesses Provide income tax credits Freeze federal spending to help balance the budget Provide support to struggling businesses outside of the financial sector Invest in communities by building schools and parks Invest in creating more affordable housing Invest in infrastructure like roads and bridges Ensure the stability of the banking system Extend unemployment insurance Combined First and Second Responses (% First Choice) Proposal to Strengthen Economy 35% (18%) 28% (15%) 24% (17%) 17% (10%) 16% (7%) 15% (8%) 16% (9%) 12% (5%) 6% (2%) Proposal to Help You 42% (24%) 25% (11%) 21% (13%) 18% (10%) 16% (8%) 16% (8%) 13% (8%) 12% (4%) 8% (4%) 32 Source: CSSNY, November 3-4, ,200 voters nationwide.

33 Three-quarters of voters support increasing health care spending to stimulate the economy even if it raises the deficit. Favor or oppose increased spending to make health care more accessible and affordable even it if means raising deficit 76% 21% Favor Oppose 33 Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates International/Newsweek Poll January 2009

34 Barriers to Health Care Reform: Voter cynicism that Congress won t act. Among men, that health care reform will interfere with fixing the economy. They want to fix the economy first. Among women, concerns about scarcity. They are worried about incorporating all of the uninsured and losing what they currently have. Concern about who will pay for reforms and what it will cost to cover the uninsured when it s rising costs that make voters mindful of the need for reform in the first place. 34 Voters are worried about the wrong kind of change. In 3 out of 4 of the focus groups, participants said they were concerned or worried about making the wrong kind of change. They want to keep what they have and make their own choice when they change health coverage.

35 Overcoming the Barriers: Make a connection between stagnant wages, rising health care costs, and insurance company profits. Focus on support for small business. Define a role for government as watchdog and rule enforcer. Animate anger, not fear. 35

36 Message themes for health care reform Health care has become a core value: Health care is part of the American Dream, our country s destiny, and each family s well-being and future. Anger is important: Americans are angry at insurance companies because of their bureaucracy, red tape, and obstacles to getting care. Animating anger among voters by reminding them about the insurance industry s penchant for putting profits ahead of people will be useful in any messaging strategy. Guarantee quality, affordable health care: The strongest language about health care reform is populist in tone and centers on taking away the anxiety connected with health care guaranteeing that it s there and won t be denied because of pre-existing conditions, letting consumers have a choice about what s best for their families. Talk about this Guaranteed quality, affordable health care Prevention & Choice Giving people control and peace of mind Instead of this Required or universal coverage Wellness & Competition Government health care for all 36

37 Energy

38 A majority of Americans want to boost the economy before protecting the environment. Connecting clean energy development to job creation is key to winning support. What is more important to you--stimulating the economy or protecting the environment? 58% 33% 8% Stimulating economy Protecting environment Both 38 Source: CBS News/New York Times January 2009

39 Food safety is the top environmental concern, followed closely by decreasing our use of oil, coal, and gas for energy. The salience of food safety has certainly increased with the recent peanut crisis. Top Environmental Concerns Safe food/water Decrease use of fossil fuels Renewable energy Clean water Clean air 30% 30% 28% 26% 35% Clean energy* Global warming 19% 22% Making polluters pay 13% 39 Protect parks and wilderness 9%

40 Two-thirds of voters are confident Obama will make the U.S. less dependent on foreign oil. Confidence Obama will make U.S. less dependent on foreign oil 66% 29% 23% Confident 12% Not Confident 40 Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates International/Newsweek Poll January 2009

41 Voters see energy technologies as a way to boost the economy. They favor spending on new energy technologies even if it means raising the deficit. Favor or oppose increased spending to develop new clean energy technology even it if means raising deficit 76% 21% Favor Oppose 41 Source: Princeton Survey Research Associates International/Newsweek Poll January 2009

42 Voters like the idea of linking the stimulus to jobs increasing production of renewable energy and making schools and public buildings more energy efficient. Now I would like to read you several parts of the stimulus legislation that is designed to help deal with the current economic recession. Creating jobs through increased production of renewable energy and making schools and public buildings more energy efficient. 89% 8% Good Idea Bad Idea 42

43 Voters are most likely to believe investments in clean renewable energy will lead to energy independence, getting costs under control, and improving the environment. Nearly three out of four see it as a way to create new good-paying jobs. Outcomes of investing in clean renewable energy Mean: Make us more energy independent Rated 10 Rated 9-6 5% 36% 84% 8.3 Get costs under control 5% 32% 74% 7.7 Improve the environment 5% 45% 82% 7.9 Create new good paying jobs 4% 39% 73% 7.5 Reduce cost of energy to consumers 4% 33% 65% 7.1 Improve national security 3% 29% 59%

44 Message themes for energy New energy policy: Voters recognize that current energy policy is not working. We give billions in tax subsidies to oil companies while they are making record profits and our gas prices keep going up. We need a new energy policy that invests in renewable energy that will be cheaper for American families. Reinvest in America: Reminding people that we re spending billions of dollars to rebuild Iraq while our infrastructure is aging here at home is a strong argument. Investing in America will create jobs to rebuild our infrastructure, and we can rebuild using clean, energy-efficient technologies that build a strong foundation for the future. Future generations: Voters respond to the idea that we have a moral obligation to leave our children and grandchildren with a better world, one that is safe, beautiful and majestic. We need to be responsible stewards of the earth, and take steps now to invest in renewable energy and clean technologies. Talk about this Good-paying jobs, manufacturing jobs Responsible stewardship Investing in infrastructure Instead of this Green jobs Conservation Funding environmental programs 44

45 Colorado

46 Colorado voters priorities reflect priorities nationwide. Which is the most important issue to you? Economy and Jobs 52% War in Iraq Moral and family values Education Taxes Immigration Health care 11% 10% 7% 7% 6% 5% 46 Source: Public Policy Polling. January 23-25, Colorado voters.

47 An analysis of The Denver Post s breaking news shows the economy is at the top of the list. 47

48 Along with the rest of the country, Colorado s unemployment rate has risen by about 50% over the last year. National Average December 2007: 4.9% National Average: 7.2% Unemployment Rate Wyoming: 3.4% North Dakota: 3.5% Above 9%: California 10% or higher: Michigan Colorado December 2007: 4.0% Colorado: 6.1% Nevada Oregon South Carolina Rhode Island 48 Source: The Denver Post. 1/28/2009

49 Colorado s s foreclosure rate was the fifth highest in the nation. At twice the national average, the percentage of Colorado s foreclosures also increased at a slower rate than the rest of the country. National Average 2007: 1.03% National Average: 1.84% Foreclosure Rate Vermont: 0.04% Above 3%: Florida Arizona California Above 7%: Nevada Colorado: 2.41% 49 Colorado 2007: 1.92% Source: Denver Business Journal. 1/15/2009, RealityTrac

50 As in many states, Coloradans are critical of their state s s leadership. Fewer than half of Colorado voters approve of the job Governor Ritter is doing. (47%) Research shows that two-thirds of Colorado voters say they only rarely or sometimes trust the Colorado legislature to do the right thing. (63%) 50 Source: Public Policy Polling January 2009

51 To deal with Colorado s s budget shortfall, the Joint Budget Committee is counting on federal stimulus funding, reducing spending, and pulling half the money from the state s s rainy-day fund. Cut $600 million from the budget because of expected drop in tax revenue Count on $100 million in extra Medicaid funding from federal stimulus plan Take $150 million from the reserve account, leaving $150 million behind. 51 Source: The Denver Post. 2/11/2009

52 Colorado s s piece of the stimulus will go mostly toward education programs and infrastructure. $752.4 million of state fiscal stabilization funds (About two- thirds is for education programs, and the rest is for general state government purposes.) $403.9 million for highway projects $134.7 million for transit and other infrastructure $154.5 million in Part B grants for special education $126.7 million for Title I education programs for disadvantaged students $6 million for education technology $8 million for Head Start programs for children Slightly more than $800,000 for Medicaid programs $35 million for the Drinking Water Revolving Fund $32 million for the Clean Water State Revolving Fund $1.3 million for emergency food and shelter programs $1.3 million for commodity assistance programs $1.6 million for elderly assistance programs $6 million for employment services $43 million law enforcement grants 52 Source: The Rocky Mountain News. 2/14/2009

53 The Bell Policy Center s s letter to Senator Bennet focused on the three priorities for the federal stimulus package: Do no harm to the most vulnerable Coloradans. Take the long view and promote long-term opportunity. Use caution about tax cuts. 53

54 The Emerging West

55 Obama made inroads into states where Democrats have struggled previously. Even in the red states, however, Obama closed the gap. Obama s margin over Kerry: +9 Voted for Kerry in 04 and Obama in 08 Voted for Bush in 04 and McCain in 08 Voted for Bush in 04 and Obama in

56 Democrats picked up 3 new Senate seats in the West in 2008, losing none. Patty Curry Maria Cantwell Jon Tester Max Baucus Ron Wyden JEFF MERKLEY Mike Crapo James Risch John Barrasso Michael Enzi Harry Reid John Ensign Robert Bennett Orrin Hatch MARK UDALL Michael Bennet Jon Kyl John McCain Jeff Bingaman TOM UDALL 56

57 Democrats picked up 6 new House seats in the West, and lost none. Walt Minnick (ID1) Dina Titus (NV3) Betsy Markey (CO4) 57 Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ1) Harry Teague (NM2) Martin Heinrich (NM1)

58 Two prominent Westerners have been tapped for Obama s s cabinet. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson was tapped for Commerce before withdrawing. 58

59 Six Western states have Democrats in the Governor s s seat. Three of those are term-limited in the next two cycles. None of the Republican governors are term-limited Termed Termed Republican-held after Napolitano joined the Cabinet Termed 59

60 State legislatures have been key places for Democrats across the West; D s D s picked up 25 state legislature seats here in the 2008 elections In Colorado: Senate Democrats picked up one seat House Democrats lost two seats Both chambers remain majority Democrat Democrat Control Republican Control Colorado is ranked #1 in the country for the percent of women in the state legislature: 40%. The national average is 22%. Split Control 60

61 Although Democrats have enjoyed increasing support in recent years, Colorado voters tend to vote on candidate identity rather than party loyalty. In 2004 voters picked the Republican at the top of the ticket, and put Democrats in charge of the State House % 52% 54% 47% 42% 45% 5% Bush Gore Nader Bush Kerry McCain Obama 61

62 In the 2010 gubernatorial race in Colorado, Ritter could have a very competitive race if the profile of the Republican candidate is right. Ritter bested Beauprez by 17 points in their 2006 matchup, and although Beauprez is an unlikely candidate for governor in 2010, Ritter s s hypothetical lead right now is only 6 points. Possible 2010 Gubernatorial Match-Ups 46% 40% 52% 38% Bill Ritter Bob Beauprez Bill Ritter Tom Tancredo 62 Source: Public Policy Polling January 2009

63 Candidate profile is again more important than party in the 2010 Senate race. The right Republican would provide a real challenge to Michael Bennet. Possible 2010 Senatorial Match-Ups 41% 44% 43% 37% 48% 39% Michael Bennet Bill Owens Michael Bennet Scott McInnis Michael Bennet Tom Tancredo 63 Source: Public Policy Polling January 2009

64 Moving forward as Western progressives State-level work is critical: Some of the Bush Administration s barriers to moving forward with a progressive agenda at the state level will be removed under Obama. Seizing the opportunity to focus on Statehouses instead of the Capitol will serve progressives well in the long term. When the Hope Honeymoon is over: It is likely that the Obama Administration may be more focused on compromise and bipartisanship than on many of the progressive reforms we would like to see. Remembering to advocate for progressive themes, and keep pressure on the Administration will be important. Progressive = Common Sense: In a difficult economy, Western themes of commonsense, post-partisan independent solutions will take center stage. Positioning progressive reforms as the common-sense solutions they are (such as creating jobs with renewable energy development) will be important to success. Profile over party: Western Democrats must not count on their identity as Democrats to win campaigns in Colorado. Voters, while they are more favorable to Democrats right now, are independent, and will vote for the candidate they prefer instead of relying on party ID. 64

65 Voices of Opportunity Luncheon Celinda Lake