National Public Radio The Campaign on the Eve of the Conventions

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1 March 13, 2006 August 20, 2008 National Public Radio The Campaign on the Eve of the Conventions August 21, ,124 Likely Voters Presidential Battleground

2 States in the presidential battleground: blue and red states Total State List Alaska Colorado Florida Georgia Indiana Iowa Michigan Missouri Minnesota Montana Nevada New Hampshire New Mexico North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Pennsylvania Virginia Wisconsin BLUE STATES Deep Blue Minnesota Wisconsin Light Blue Michigan New Hampshire Pennsylvania RED STATES Deep Red Alaska Georgia Indiana Montana North Carolina North Dakota Light Red Colorado Florida Iowa Missouri Nevada New Mexico Ohio Virginia

3 Change dominates battleground too

4 Presidential battleground voters pessimistic about direction of nation Generally speaking, do you think things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? -56 Right Direction Wrong Track Right Direction Wrong Track

5 Similar levels of interest by candidate choice As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this year s elections. Very Interested (10) Total Obama Voters McCain Voters

6 Similar levels of interest by party As you know, there will be elections in November for president and other offices. On a scale of one to ten, with one meaning NOT AT ALL interested and ten meaning VERY INTERESTED, please tell me how interested you are in this year s elections. Very Interested (10) Democrats Independents Republicans

7 But Democrats more enthusiastic about the election In thinking about the presidential election that will be held this November, compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting than usual or less enthusiastic? More Enthusiastic Less Enthusiastic More Enthusiastic Democrats Less Enthusiastic More Enthusiastic Less Enthusiastic Independents More Enthusiastic Republicans Less Enthusiastic

8 Approval of Bush low Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove

9 Even in Deep Red states Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove Total Sample Deep Red States* *Note: These states are Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota.

10 The Race

11 Match-up very close in presidential battleground states Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Independent Ralph Nader Lean Barack Obama Lean John McCain Libertarian Bob Barr Democrat John Kerry Republican George Bush Obama McCain Nader Barr Total Voters Kerry 2004 Vote* Bush *Note: Represents the actual 2004 vote in these presidential battleground states.

12 Obama leading in blue states, slightly ahead in light red states If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Obama Lean Obama McCain Lean McCain Nader Lean Nader Barr Lean Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Deep Blue States Light Blue States Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Deep Red States Light Red States

13 McCain holds slight leads among independents If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Democrat Barack Obama Republican John McCain Lean Republican John McCain Libertarian Bob Barr Independent Ralph Nader Lean Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Independent Ralph Nader Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Democrats Independents Republicans

14 Obama holding Democratic states, tied in Bush states If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Obama Republican John McCain Lean McCain Independent Ralph Nader Lean Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Bob Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr States won by Kerry States won by Gore States won by Bush 2004 States won by Bush

15 Importance of vice presidential picks How important will Senator Barack Obama s vice presidential pick be to your decision whether or not to support his candidacy? Will it be very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all? How important will Senator John McCain s vice presidential pick be to your decision whether or not to support his candidacy? Will it be very important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all? Very important Somewhat important Not at all important Not very important Important Not Important Important Not Important Obama s Choice McCain s Choice

16 The candidates and campaigns

17 The personal qualities of the candidates Now, I d like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these terms, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? McCain much more McCain somewhat more Obama much more Obama somewhat more Net Bringing right kind of change Being on your side Restoring respect for America in the world Independent Will work across party lines Has what it takes to be president Positive Strong leader Negative Too risky Saying what people want to hear, not what he believes in Out of touch

18 Regression analysis: personal characteristics as vote predictors Characteristics that drive the vote: Odds Ratio On your side 1.94 Has what it takes to be president 1.89 Strong leader 1.58 Bring the right kind of change 1.51 Restore respect for America 1.40 Will work across party lines 1.32 Too risky.79 Page 18 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

19 The candidates and the issues Now, I d like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these phrases, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? McCain much more McCain somewhat more Obama much more Obama somewhat more Net Has the better approach to the economy Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis and reduce gas prices Has the better approach on taxes Has the better approach to handle the situation in Iraq Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis Has the better approach to handle the situation in Afghanistan

20 Regression analysis: issues as vote predictors Issues that drive the vote: Odds Ratio Has the better approach to the economy 1.56 Has the better approach to handle the situation 1.55 in Afghanistan Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis 1.39 Has the better plan to handle our energy crisis 1.33 and reduce gas prices Has the better approach on taxes 1.13 Has the better approach to handle the situation in Iraq 1.46 Page 20 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner

21 Character of the two candidates Now, I d like to ask you which presidential candidate you associate more with these phrases, Barack Obama or John McCain. Would that be much more or somewhat more? McCain much more McCain somewhat more Obama much more Obama somewhat more Net Seeing more on television about him Hearing or receiving more information about his campaign Has flip-flopped on the issues Seeing more ads from his campaign Too negative in his campaign

22 Campaign Advertising

23 Many have seen campaign ads Now let me ask you something a little bit different. Have you seen any advertisements from the campaign of Barack Obama/John McCain over the last couple of weeks? Yes No Obama Campaign Ads McCain Campaign Ads

24 Many have seen ads that are negative about Barack Obama Of those ads that you have seen on television from either John McCain or Barack Obama, please tell me, which of the following phrases describes the time of ads you have seen. You may choose as many of the following phrases as you feel apply. Ads that are negative about Barack Obama 65 Ads that are positive about Barack Obama 64 Ads that are positive about John McCain 60 Ads that compare the candidates but are critical of Barack Obama 59 Ads that are negative about John McCain 48 Ads that compare the candidates but are critical of John McCain *Note: Asked of those who responded that they have seen ads about one or both of the candidates.

25 Advertisements: open-ended responses And now, of those ads that you have seen, what specifically do you recall seeing? Obama Negatives Celebrity Inexperience Raise taxes Group Net 28 McCain negative/critical of Obama 15 Campaign Tone Both negative/distorting truth/misleading 7 25 Obama negative/critical of McCain 5 Energy policy/alt. energy 10 Econ/plan for economy 5 General Issues Taxes/raising/cutting taxes 4 20 War/future war plan 4 Gas/fuel costs, handling prices 4 Obama Positives Hopeful/upbeat/intelligent Will bring change McCain Positive: Patriotism/military service/pow Positive: Experienced Negative: Same as Bush *Note: Asked of those responding they have seen ads. Group net represents total who recalled ads of this category including some not listed on the chart because of small incidences

26 Ad effect varies by partisanship, independents split Overall, of the ads you ve seen, are they leading you more toward supporting Barack Obama or more toward supporting John McCain? Obama McCain More toward supporting Obama More toward supporting McCain More toward supporting Obama More toward supporting McCain More toward supporting Obama Democrats Independents Republicans More toward supporting McCain *Note: Asked of those who responded that they have seen ads about one or both of the candidates.

27 Obama ahead in states where both campaigns have ads Now let me ask you again about your vote for president, but with candidate names. If the election were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr, or Independent candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote? Democrat Barack Obama Lean Republican John McCain Lean Democrat Barack Obama Independent Ralph Nader Republican John McCain Lean Independent Ralph Nader Libertarian Bob Barr Lean Libertarian Bob Barr Obama McCain Nader Barr

28 New and old media

29 Traditional mediums from which people receive campaign information Now I am going to name several mediums people get information from about this year s presidential election. Please tell me, for each, if you have gotten information through these specific mediums. Received Percent Yes information through watching news Received information through watching news stories on television Received information through watching advertisements on television Received information through hearing news stories on the radio Received information through hearing advertisements on the radio Received printed materials in the mail from campaigns or another political organization Received phone calls from the campaigns or other political organizations Spoken with someone who came to your door from campaign or political org

30 Electronic ways that people receive campaign information Now I am going to name several mediums people get information from about this year s presidential election. Please tell me, for each, if you have gotten information through these specific mediums. Yes, Percent have Yes received information through this Visited a campaign or candidate-sponsored website 26 Received "chain s" about Barack Obama 24 Watched a campaign commercial on-line 22 Watched viral videos online from organizations other than the campaigns or new outlets. Received s from campaigns or organizations Visited a political blog online 15 Received "chain s" about John McCain Received campaign or candidate information on your cell phone or personal digital assistant

31 Online methods by age group Now I am going to name several mediums people get information from about this year s presidential election. Please tell me, for each, if you have gotten information through these specific mediums. Percent Yes Visited a campaign or candidate sponsored website Under Seniors Received chain mails about Barack Obama Under Seniors Watched a campaign commercial online Under Seniors Watched a viral video online from org other than campaign or news outlet Under Seniors Visited a political blog online Received campaign or candidate information on your cell phone or personal digital assistant Under 40 Seniors Under 40 Seniors

32 Washington, DC 10 G Street NE, Suite 500 Washington, DC California 50 California Street, Suite 1500 San Francisco, CA London, UK 405 Carrington House, 6 Hertford Street London, UK W1J 7SU Ph: Fax: Ph: Fax: Ph: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0)

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