Winning Young Voters

Transcription

1 Winning Young Voters

2

3 Register 2 million year olds. Online via Facebook, website Partnerships (AT&T, grassroots) Street teams, concert tour, events Artist Advisory Council Increase turnout for 3rd major election in a row. Peer to peer turnout reminders Text message reminders Voter education Already, more than 600, year olds have used our online tool to register to vote!

4 Action on the issues Getting the word out in the news Candidates talking with young voters Resources for campaigns & candidates from RTV experts

5 The Millennial Generation is huge. Young people are energized. Young voter turnout is on the rise. Young adults will vote when asked and when mobilized, can make a huge impact on elections and the direction of our country.

6 In 2004, the number of year old voters rivaled the over-65 vote. Size of under-30 vote vs. over-65 vote Source: U.S. Census Bureau 20.1 million 22.3 million # of year old voters # of voters of 65 years of age

7 Millennial voters are more than one-fifth of the electorate in and growing. 44 million eligible year olds in '08 Source: RTV tabulations of U.S. Census Bureau population projections 44 million or 21% in in million or 79%

8 Young voters' election attention up CBS News-NY Times-MTV Polls 58% 35% Summer 2003 Summer 2007 % Year Olds Paying "A Lot" or "Some" Attention to Elections

9 80% of Young Voters are Following the 2008 Elections Closely Thinking specifically about this year s election, how closely would you say you 80% have followed the election extremely closely, very closely, somewhat closely, a little closely, or not at all closely? 20% Rock the Vote Poll, February 2008 Closely Not Closely

10 18-29 Year Olds Top Issues Rock the Vote Poll, February 2008 Jobs & the economy Iraq Health care Education/college cost Immigration Environment Government corruption Gas prices Homeland security Federal deficit 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 8% 10% 11% 12% 17% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

11 First there was a big increase in vs turnout of young voters Source: U.S. Census Bureau 15.8 million 20.1 million # Year Old Voters

12 Then it happened again in vs turnout of young voters Source: U.S. Census Bureau 8.9 million 10.8 million # Year Old Voters

13 and in the 2008 primaries, young voters surged to the polls, more than doubling their vote total compared to the previous primary season Year Old Primary Turnout 2008 *As of March 5th, where data available 4.9 million 2.1 million 2000 (R) (D) 2008 (R+D)

14 The Racial/Ethnic Breakdown of Young Millennials Source: U.S. Census Bureau 5% 2% 14% White Black Latino Asian Other 18% 61% Millennials are far more diverse than older voters; for example, 81% of 65+ adults are white, whereas just 61% of year olds are. (U.S. Census Bureau 2006)

15 18-29 Year Olds' Political Party Identification Rock the Vote Poll February % 50% 45% 40% 35% 28% 30% 25% 16% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Democratic Republican Independent In 2000, year olds split evenly, 48% for Al Gore and 46% for George W. Bush. In 2002, 49% of year olds voted for Democrats and 47% for Republicans. In 2004, 54% of year olds voted for John Kerry and 45% for George W. Bush. In 2006, 60% of year olds voted for Democrats and 38% for Republicans.

16

17 Today s year olds lean strongly Democratic. Democrats have won the majority of young adults votes for the past two major elections and have a chance in 2008 to win the loyalty of this generation for a lifetime. Huge in number and voting in growing numbers, young voters are key to winning elections in 2008 and beyond. Issues: Young Democrats say jobs and the economy is their top issue of concern, followed by Iraq, health care, education costs, and the environment and global warming. Diverse: 47% of year olds identify as Democrats, 28% as Republicans, and 16% as Independents. -Women: 55% identify as Democrats, compared to 38% of young men -African Americans: 73% identify as Democrats -Latinos: 51% identify as Democrats Vote Choice -In 2004, year olds voted for Kerry over Bush by 9 points (54% to 45%) -In 2006, young voters gave Democrats a 22-point advantage in the Congressional elections, with 60% voting for Democratic candidates and 38% for Republicans.

18 18-29 Year Old Latinos Rock the Vote Poll Feb % 51% 50% 40% 30% 21% 19% 20% 10% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% Year Old Women Rock the Vote Poll Feb % 26% Democratic Republican Independent 19% Democratic Republican Independent 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Year Old African Americans Rock the Vote Poll Feb % 6% 15% Democratic Republican Independent

19 Young Republicans have been voting in record numbers over the course of the last four years. In 2008, young Republican turnout is up in early primary states. Issues - Young Republicans say jobs and the economy is their top issue of concern, followed by immigration, gas prices, health care, terrorism, and the deficit. -Terrorism, immigration, and the federal budget deficit registered higher among young Republicans than among young adults overall. Political Attitudes -Overall, 28% of year olds identify as Republicans. -Men: 30% identify as Republicans, compared to 26% of young women Young married men and religious youth lean Republican -White youth: 35% identify as Republican Outlook -Young Republicans are very favorable toward John McCain and plan to vote in big numbers in Nov. 2008, according to a Feb Rock the Vote poll.

20 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Year Old Born-Again Men Rock the Vote Poll Feb Year Old White Men Rock the Vote Poll Feb % 37% 20% Democratic Republican Independent Year Old Married Men Rock the Vote Poll Feb % 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 38% 26% 23% Democratic Republican Independent 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 36% 31% 26% Democratic Republican Independent

21 Overall, year old turnout jumped 9% points from 2000 to 2004 (40 to 49%). Young women: year old women jumped 11.5 points year old women jumped 10 points. African Americans: The youngest African-Americans, years old, increased their turnout by 11.1 points. Under 30 African-Americans turnout grew by 7 points. Latinos: While turnout among Latinos grew more slowly six points over 2000 levels the cohort s sheer size and growth gives their vote increased potency: 425,000 Latinos turn 18 annually in the U.S.

22 In 2006, the margin of victory in several House and Senate races was less than young voters turnout increase from 2002 to 2006 Montana: Jon Tester defeated Conrad Burns by 3,562 votes. Turnout among year olds was up by approximately 39,106. Virginia: Jim Webb defeated George Allen by 9,329 votes. Turnout among year olds was up by approximately 110,453. Missouri: Claire McCaskill defeated Jim Talent by 48,314 votes. Turnout among year olds was up by approximately 108,269. CT-02: Joe Courtney defeated Rob Simmons by 83 votes. Young voter turnout at the University of Connecticut polling place was up 74.2% over 2002, or 783 votes. Courtney won by 83 votes out of more than 240,000 cast - the closest congressional race in the country in He attributes his victory to the higher turnout of young voters. The Norwich Bulletin, Feb. 21, 2007 Had the youth not voted, if we hadn t done all this, we wouldn t have won. - Lon Seidman, Campaign Manager, Courtney for Congress

23 18-29 Year Old Republicans Primary Vote Share up in Year Old Democrats Primary Vote Share up in % more year olds voted in the 2008 primaries than in 2000 and 2004

24 Record young voter turnout Engagement for a lifetime A better democracy

25 Engaged Generation Registration, Education, GOTV High Profile Elections Campaign & Candidate Outreach

26 Resources for You We ll be mobilizing young adults - we also want to ensure political campaigns, parties, and other organizations do the same. Online voter registration widget The latest young voter polling Best practices - registration and GOTV Campaign toolkits Winning Young Voters Trainings Young voter targeting tools Issue campaigns

27

28 Registration is the best get-out-the-vote tactic around: in 2004, 82% of registered year olds voted. Online: Register a new young voter for $2-10 per registration. Online ads Social networks like Facebook Direct mail: Register a new voter for $5-6 per person. Can be targeted to specific demographics, geography, etc. In person: Staff and volunteers can generate registrations for $5-10. Campus quad or student center Clubs, bars, coffee shops Bus stops and train stops Community meetings, class presentations, workplaces

29 Studies show that contact from campaigns significantly increases a young person s likelihood of turning out to vote on Election Day. GOTV tactics that work Also Multiple contacts from a campaign can increase turnout by percentage points. A door knock can boost turnout by 8 points. A live phone call increases turnout by 3-5 points. A text message increases turnout by 3-4 points. Build/get a good list - and keep it up to date Collect s and cells - they travel with us! Buy youth vote groups lists from brokers. Update right after registration deadlines. Update right after school starts.

30 Through focus groups, polling, and work in the field, Rock the Vote knows what messaging works to motivate young voters and what doesn t. DO Talk about the issues and be results-oriented. Know that you need to appeal to their interests. Reinforce empowerment - use positive language about young voter participation. Use language that builds on young voters desire to have an impact, not only for ourselves but also for our friends, family, and world. Give them a sense their votes can make a difference and will be counted. Ask for their votes. DON T Denigrate young people for apathy. Not only is this not true, it can decrease turnout. Place young people in opposition to older people. Assume that young voters know the basics of registering and voting. Think young voters will vote just because it is the right thing to do. Invoke anger. They re looking for solutions, not complaints. Forget to ask for their votes.

31 Two examples of messaging that resonates with young voters Your vote can make a difference for people you care about. Vote for your brothers and sisters who want to be able to go to college. Vote for your friends who are in Iraq and want to come home. Vote for your children who will need clean air to breathe and good schools to go to. Vote for parents so they have social security benefits and Medicare when they retire. Don t just vote for yourself vote for them. In 2008, your voice will matter. As part of a new generation of voters, 44 million strong, you have the power to change politics in this country. It s up to you to decide who the next president of United States is. It s up to you to decide if and when the war will end. It s up to you decide if everyone in this country should get healthcare coverage. It s all up to you, so let your voice be heard on Election Day. Two other tips -Young people trust sources they view as nonpartisan. Hold back on the rhetoric. -Keep it real. We ve got B.S. meters installed from birth. Tell us the truth, tell us what your plan is, and we re good to go.

32 Tools Handbooks and Tipsheets Winning Young Voters: Our premier campaign handbook. Targeting Young Voters: Results of our young voter modeling project, including practical tips on using the results. (May 2008) Young Voter Mobilization Tactics II: Case studies of seven 2006 campaigns. And more Online Voter Registration Tool Register voters rights on your website with RTV s easy-to-use and free online tool. Opinion Research Rock the Vote conducts polling and focus groups with our team from Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group, and also compiles the latest youth polling from other companies.

33 The Millennial Generation is huge. Young people are energized. Young voter turnout is on the rise. Young adults will vote when asked and when mobilized, can make a huge impact on elections and the direction of our country.

34 Winning Young Voters