Popular Vote. Ronald Reagan (R) 54,450, % Walter Mondale (D) 37,573, % Others 1 596, %

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1 PRESIDENTIAL 84: A CASE STUDY In 1984 President Reagan, the Republican nominee, gained a sweeping victory over Walter F. Mondale, The Democrat, and received the second largest popular vote margin ever won by an American presidential candidate. Reagan carried 49 of the 50 states and became the first incumbent president to be reelected since The results were: Popular Vote Electoral Vote Popular Vote Percentage Ronald Reagan (R) 54,450, % Walter Mondale (D) 37,573, % Others 1 596, % 92,620, % The Republicans During much of President Reagan s first term, it was by no means clear that he was headed for an easy reelection victory in In fact, the story of Reagan s first term in office reflects a clear-cut pattern: the rise, and then the fall, and then the rise again in the political fortunes of Ronald Reagan. In his first months as president, Reagan enjoyed broad public support, and his political position appeared to be very strong. Gallup polls taken during the spring and summer of 1981 consistently found that the proportion of the American public who approved of the way Reagan was handling his job as president was in the 60 percent range. And in April 1981, immediately after John Hinckley s attempt on the president s life, Reagan s approval rating jumped to 67 percent. (See Table 2.) During this period, the president also won two major victories in Congress. In May a bill calling for substantial cuts in domestic spending was passed. And in July the president s tax cut program became law. 1 Among the other candidates were: David Bergland, Libertarian, 227,949; Lyndon H. La Rouche, Jr., independent, 78,773; Sonia Johnson, Citizens, 72,153; Bob Richards, Populist, 62,371; Dennis Serrette, Independent Alliance, 47,209; Gus Hall, Communist, 35,561; Mel Mason, Socialist Workers, 24,687; Larry Holmes, Workers World, 15,220; Delmar Dennis, American, 13,150; Ed Minn, Workers League, 10,801; Earl F. Dodge, Prohibition, 4,242; Gavrielle Holmes, Workers World, 2,718; and John B. Anderson, National Unity Party of Kentucky, 1,479. Larry Holmes and Gavrielle Holmes both ran as candidates of the Worker s World party, but in different states. Source: New York Times, December 22, 1984, p. 10.

2 Almost immediately, however, the national economy began to falter, and the United States headed into what was to become the nation s worst recession since the Great Depression. As the economic situation deteriorated, President Reagan s standing in the polls also dropped. By the second half of 1982, his approval rating stood at only 42 percent. In addition, in June 1982, Ronald Reagan fell behind Walter Mondale for the first time in the Gallup poll s trial heat election question. 2 On nearly every such question for the next year and a half, Reagan ran behind Mondale. (See Table 3.) The midterm elections of 1982 were fought against a backdrop of bad economic news. Less than a month before the elections it was announced that the nation s unemployment rate had climbed to 10.1 percent the highest in 42 years. On election day, more than eleven and a half million Americans were out of work. 3 When the returns were in, the Republicans had suffered a net loss of 26 seats in the House an unusually large midterm loss for a president in his first term. President Reagan s approval rating reached its low point in his first term 35 percent in January of Then, slowly at first, the economy began to improve, and Reagan s own standing in the polls began to climb. Even so, in October, 1983, TABLE 1 Annual Rates of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States, Inflation Unemployment % 7.1% * *1984 figures are the annualized rate for the first ten months of the year. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2 The question was: Suppose the presidential election were being held today. If President Reagan were the Republican candidate and Walter Mondale were the Democratic candidate, which would you like to see win? Gallup Report, no. 226, July 1984, p New York Times, October 9, 1982, p. 1, and November 6, 1982, p 1.

3 TABLE 2 President Reagan's Job Rating, * Date of Interviews Approve Disapprove No Opinion Reagan Inaugurated, January 20, 1981 Jan. 30-Feb. 2, % 13% 36% March 13-16, John Hinckley Attempts to Assassinate Reagan, March 30, 1981 April 3-6, July 17-20, Recession Begins December 11-14, April 2-5, July 23-26, October 15-18, National Unemployment Rate Reaches 10.8%, December, 1982 January 28-31, Economy Begins to Improve April 15-18, July 22-25, October 7-10, U.S. Military Forces land in Grenada, October 25, 1983 November 18-21, January 27-30, April 6-9, May 18-21, July 27-29, September 21-24, *Responses to the question: "Do you approve of the way Ronald Reagan is handling his job as President?" Source: Gallup Report, December 1983, no. 219, p. 18; June 1984, no. 225, p. 11; and Gallup poll, press release little more than a year before the 1984 election, the public was almost evenly divided in its appraisal of how Ronald Reagan was handling his job as president 45 percent approved, 44 percent disapproved. On October 25, 1983, the president sent American military forces into the Caribbean island of Grenada, to oust a group of leftists from the government, and to rescue American medical students who were on the island. Although the move was controversial, the American military intervention was quick; it achieved its two major objectives; and most of the American troops were soon withdrawn from the island. The next Gallup poll found that after Grenada Reagan s job rating had gone up by

4 eight percentage points to 53 percent. It was the first time in two years that the Reagan approval rating had climbed above the 50 percent mark. This time the president s popularity did not drop, however. The economy was continuing to improve; and for seven months in a row the president s approval rating ranged between 52 percent and 55 percent. In May 1984, when the rating stood at 54 percent, the Gallup poll noted this remarkable stability. It added: A trend of this duration in presidential election years is unprecedented in Gallup history. 3 President Reagan and his vice-presidential running mate, George Bush, thus entered the 1984 campaign in a position of strength. The Democratic Race In February 1983, almost two years before the 1984 election, Walter Mondale announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for president. Eventually, there were seven other announced candidates for the nomination Senator John Glenn of Ohio; Senator Gary Hart of Colorado; Senator Alan Cranston of California; Senator Ernest F. (Fritz) Hollings of South Carolina; Reubin Askew, a former governor of Florida; George McGovern, the former senator from South Dakota and the 1972 Democratic presidential nominee; and the Reverend Jesse L. Jackson. Mondale s advisers hoped that their candidate could quickly take a large lead in the early primaries and drive out all the other challengers the juggernaut strategy. 4 By winning the nomination quickly, they reasoned, Mondale would then be free to concentrate on attacking the Reagan administration s record, and the financial and other costs of a divisive fight within the Democratic party could be avoided. At first, when Mondale won a strong victory in the Iowa caucuses on February 20, 1984, it appeared that this might be possible. But then two developments occurred that prevented Mondale from locking up the nomination early in the year. The campaign of Jesse Jackson, the first black political leader in American history to make a major bid for the presidential nomination, began to attract many blacks who might otherwise have voted Mondale in the primaries. And Senator Gary Hart won a decisive victory in the New Hampshire primary on February 3 Gallup Report, June 1984, no. 225 p Elizabeth Drew, A Political Journal. The New Yorker, December 3, 1984, p. 113.

5 28th, emerging as a major opponent with a national following. As a result, Mondale was forced to engage in a long and often bitter fight in the Democratic primaries from February to June. Eventually Mondale won a clear-cut lead over Hart and Jackson in this battle for convention delegates. But by the time the primaries were finally over, just a month before the July Democratic convention, Mondale was trailing Reagan by seventeen percentage points in the Gallup poll. (See Table 3.) On July 11th, five days before the convention opened, Mondale announced that he would ask the delegated to nominate Representative Geraldine Ferraro of New York to be his vicepresidential running mate. It was a historic decision the first time a woman had ever been selected to run on the national ticket of a major political party. The initial public response to this decision was very favorable. But another decision that Mondale announce about this time to appoint Bert Lance, a controversial political figure, as his campaign manager drew bitter criticism from within the Democratic party. (Within three weeks, Lance announced that he would not take the position.) The Democratic convention, which opened on July 16th in San Francisco, had several televised highlights that appeared to bring about a temporary rally among the Democrats potential political constituency: the opening night keynote address by New York s Governor Mario Cuomo; Jesse Jackson s rousing speech throwing his support to the Mondale-Ferraro ticket; and the dramatic appearance of Geraldine Ferraro to accept the nomination for vice-president. As the Democratic convention ended, a Gallup poll found that the Mondale-Ferraro and Reagan-Bush tickets were running about even. (See Table 3.) Almost immediately, however, Representative Ferraro s candidacy became embroiled in two controversies that bedeviled the campaign and dominated the news media during much of August. One concerned the past financial transactions of her husband, a New York real estate developer. The other concerned her own financial disclosure statements to the House of Representatives. Shortly before the Republican convention met in Dallas on August 30 to renominate Ronald Reagan and George Bush, a new poll reported that the Republican ticket was now leading Mondale-Ferraro by eleven percentage points. (See Table 3.)

6 The General Election September was not any better for the Democrats. The first Gallup poll after Labor Day had Reagan and Bush nineteen points ahead of Mondale and Ferraro. And the Mondale campaign organization appeared to be accident prone. There were schedule missed, rallies before small and dispirited audiences, and motorcades TABLE 3 Reagan Versus Mondale: The Gallup Poll's "Test Election" Results Among Registered Voters Between October 1981 and Election Eve, 1984* For Others or Date of Interviews For Reagan For Mondale Undecided October 2-5, % 37% 9% Recession Worsens June 25-28, December 10-13, Economy Begins to Improve June 10-13, U.S. Military Forces Land in Grenada, October 25, 1983 December 9-10, April 11-15, June 22-25, Mondale Selects Ferraro to Run for Vice President, July 11, 1984 July 12-13, July 13-16, Democratic Convention Meets, July 16-19, 1984 July 19-20, August 10-13, Republican Convention Meets, August 20-23, 1984 September 7-10, September 28-30, October 15-17, November 2-3, *Responses to the question: "Suppose the presidential election were being held today. If President Reagan were the Republican candidate and Walter Mondale were the Democratic candidate, which would you like to see win?" + Questions after the Ferraro announcement on July 11, 1984, pitted the Reagan-Bush ticket and the Mondale-Ferraro ticket against each other. Source: Gallup Report, July 1984, no. 226, pp ; Gallup Report, August/September 1984, nos. 228/229, p. 15; and Public Opinion, October/November 1984, p. 40.

7 without crowds. For the first time since systematic public opinion polling began in the 1930s, the major party presidential candidate in second place failed to gain ground during September. Knowing that they were far behind, the Democrats now pinned their hopes on swaying millions of voters in a series of national television debates that would bring the candidates into direct confrontation. After intense bargaining, three debates were scheduled: one between the presidential candidates in Louisville, Kentucky, on domestic policy, on October 7; a debate between the vice-presidential candidates in Philadelphia on October 11; and a second presidential debate, this time on foreign policy, in Kansas City on October 21. During his first term Ronald Reagan was often called the Great Communicator the most skilled president since John F. Kennedy in the use of television. It was therefore a surprise to many observers when Mondale outperformed Reagan in the first debate on October 7th. Mondale seemed relaxed, and debated aggressively without being disrespectful of the presidency. Reagan s performance, by contrast, appeared to be below par, particularly in his closing statement. Polls TABLE 4 Which Candidate "Won" the 1980 Television Debates --The Voter's Response* First Presidential Debate, on Domestic Policy, October 7, 1984 Reagan 35% Mondale 54 Neither 8 Don't Know 3 Vice-Presidential Debate, October 11, 1984 Bush 47% Ferraro 31 A Tie 17 Second Presidential Debate, on Foreign Policy, October 21, 1984 Reagan 43% Mondale 40 Neither 14 Don't Know 3 *After the two presidential debates, the question was phrased: "Regardless of which candidate you support, who do you think did a better job in the debate?" After the vicepresidential debate, the question was phrased: "Who won the debate?" Source: For the presidential debates, Newsweek polls taken by the Gallup Organization, Newsweek, October 15, 1984, p. 33; and Newsweek, October 29, 1984, p. 28. For the vicepresidential debate, the CBS News/New York Times poll. CBS News press release, October 12, 1984.

8 suggested that a clear majority of those who watched felt that Mondale had won the debate. (See Table 3.) And Reagan s somewhat faltering performance led The Wall Street Journal to speculate whether there might be an age issue in the campaign the question of whether Reagan, then 71, would be up to governing at peak effectiveness during a second full four-year term. The outcome of the debate and the public s response seemed to transform the Mondale campaign. The next day Mondale was hailed by crowds that lined the sidewalks six and eight deep for New York City s Columbus Day parade. Later that week he drew large and enthusiastic throngs in Detroit, Columbus, and Madison, Wisconsin. There were some gains in the polls for Mondale in the period following the first debate, but Reagan remained far ahead. The vice-presidential debate was held in Philadelphia on October 11; and this time the public thought that the Republican, Vice-President George Bush, had won. (See Table 4.) But the greatest interest now focused on the second debate between the two presidential candidates, to be help in Kansas City on October 21st. Most observers felt that President Reagan s performance in the second debate was stronger than it had been in Louisville. For example, when he was asked directly whether his age would interfere with his ability to serve as president, he evoked cheers and laughter from his supporters in the hall by responding: Not at all I want you to know that also, I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent s youth and inexperience. 5 The public s reaction to the debate as a whole was fairly evenly divided. By 43 percent to 40 percent viewers thought Reagan had won. And nearly all observers concluded that Mondale had not scored the clear-cut victory he needed in the debate to make the contest closer, and that Reagan hand done well enough to reassure the voters. After the second presidential debate, Reagan continued to enjoy a large lead, and many analysts concluded that the presidential race was effectively over. During the two weeks that remained until election, the Republicans pursued a two-pronged strategy. Sensing that an historic sweep of all 50 states might be possible, they sent Reagan in to campaign in the few close states. Reagan even invaded Mondale s home state of Minnesota for a surprise visit two days before the election. And both Reagan and Bush tried to turn their expected presidential sweep into a Republican congressional sweep, by campaigning for GOP House and Senate candidates. In the final week of the campaign, Reagan frequently warned his audiences against overconfidence, and said that he hoped to win not only the election but a sympathetic Congress as well. 6 As he exhorted rallies to support Republican congressional candidates, the president added: Don t send me back there alone. 7 5 New York Times, October 23, 1984, p. A28. 6 Elizabeth Drew, A Political Journal, The New Yorker, December 3, 1984, p Ibid., p. 159.

9 The final poll of the Gallup organization reported that Reagan was eighteen percentage points ahead of Mondale. As it turned out, this poll forecast the magnitude of Reagan s margin of victory almost exactly 18.2 percentage points and a popular vote plurality of more than 16,850,000. Several noteworthy features marked the voting patterns in 1984: 1. More than 92.6 million voters, the largest number ever to vote in a presidential election, went to the polls. And for the first time since 1960, the downward trend in voter turnout ended and a slight increase occurred. 2. The Reagan sweep extended across almost every portion of the country, even Massachusetts, a state which Reagan had narrowly carried by 1,500 votes in 1980 and which otherwise had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since But beneath the Reagan tide there was a pronounced sectional pattern in the vote. Of the ten states in which Reagan did best winning with 66 percent or more all but one were west of the Mississippi River. 3. Reagan also ran very strongly in the once Democratic South. In the eleven states of the former Confederacy, Reagan polled 62.4 percent of the popular vote nearly five percentage points above Reagan s showing in the rest of the country. 4. The 1984 election year appeared, at least temporarily, to have brought about an important change in the basic partisan loyalties of the American electorate. In 1984, the number of people who called themselves Republicans reached its highest point in 14 years; and the Gallup poll reported that by the middle of the year Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 12 percentage points, compared with a Democratic edge of 24 points in By Election Day other polls indicated that the gap between Democratic party-identifiers and Republicans was even smaller. 5. As noted earlier, although Reagan ran ahead of Mondale among both men and women voters, there was a substantial difference in the way women and men voted in the 1984 presidential race. Among women voters, Reagan ran 10 percentage points ahead of Mondale. Among men who voted, Reagan led by 28 percentage points. 6. Mondale suffered heavy losses among a number of voter groups that in the past had frequently given strong support to Democratic presidential candidate. Among union members, Mondale received just over half (52 percent) of the vote. And the Gallup poll reported that Mondale s support among Catholics was only 39 percent the lowest since Gallup began polling in the 1930s. Among major voting groups that have often been part of the Democratic electoral coalition, only blacks and Jewish voters gave

10 Mondale a heavy share of their votes. Gallup poll figures indicated that 87 percent of all black voters supported Mondale. And another poll put Mondale s support among Jewish voters at 69 percent Democrats suffered substantial losses in contests for the state legislatures. But in the battle for control of Congress, the Republican gains were modest. The GOP made a net gain of 14 seats in the House. And in the Senate the Democrats actually increased their strength by two Senate seats. 8. Half of the Republican gains in the House came in the South. Republicans picked up four House seats in Texas and three more in North Carolina. In all, Republicans made a net gain of eight House seats in the South. 9. The Democrats did fairly well in the Senate scoring a net gain of two seats because for the first time in several elections they had considerable success in winning the close races. Of the six Senate seats won with 53 percent of the vote or less, the Democrats took four. In 1978, 1980, and 1982, the GOP won a heavy majority of the Senate contests that were won by a narrow margin. 10. The 1984 election results left the U.S. Senate with a fairly close party balance 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats. It also set the stage for a spirited battle for control of the Senate in the midterm elections of 1986, when the Republicans expected to defend 22 Senate seats compared to 12 seats controlled by the Democrats. A net Democratic gain of four Senate seats in 1986 could return control of the Senate to the Democratic party. 11. As in every postwar presidential election year except 1964, the Democrats were substantially stronger in congressional and state contests than in the presidential race. Democrats polled slightly over 50 percent of the majorparty vote for president. The broad pattern of the election returns made it clear that the coalition that had produced many Democratic electoral victories since 1932 had shattered in 1984, as it had in But still left open were the answers to several questions. Would the Republican triumph of 1984 be followed by a series of GOP victories, such as those the Democrats enjoyed after they captured the White House in the 1930s? And would the Republicans 1984 gains in the party identification figures prove to be lasting? Or would the aftermath of 1984 be more like that of 1956, when another Republican president, Dwight D. Eisenhower, was reelected in an electoral sweep that was almost as large as Reagan s 1984 victory? In the four presidential midterm elections that followed 1956, the Republican party lost four times. 8 ABC News exit poll of people who voted on Election Day. Washington Post, November 8, 1984, p. A48.