Miami-Dade County Local Issues Poll: Survey of Miami-Dade County Voters October /21/2016 1

Transcription

1 Miami-Dade County Local Issues Poll: Survey of Miami-Dade County Voters October /21/2016 1

2 METHODOLOGY: SAMPLE NUMBER OF INTERVIEWS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY REGISTERED VOTERS 600 COMPLETED INTERVIEWS LANGUAGES ENGLISH, SPANISH DATES OCTOBER 15-17, 2016 MARGIN OF ERROR +/ PERCENTAGE POINTS

3 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL RACE

4 Hillary Clinton Very/Somewhat Favorable 43% 19% 62% Somewhat/Very Unfavorable 7% 31% 38% 4

5 Hillary Clinton BY RACE White-Anglo Hispanic Black Favorable 56% 53% 94% Unfavorable 43% 46% 6% Do not recognize 1% 1% - 5

6 Hillary Clinton BY LANGUAGE English Spanish Favorable 73% 50% Unfavorable 27% 49% Do not recognize - 1% 6

7 Hillary Clinton BY PARTY Democrat Republican Independent Favorable 90% 31% 55% Unfavorable 10% 67% 44% Do not recognize - 2% 1% 7

8 Donald Trump Very/Somewhat Favorable 18% 9% 27% Somewhat/Very Unfavorable 7% 64% 71% Do not recognize/ No opinion 2% 8

9 Donald Trump BY RACE White-Anglo Hispanic Black Favorable 29% 32% 8% Unfavorable 69% 65% 91% Do not recognize 2% 3% 1% 9

10 Donald Trump BY LANGUAGE English Spanish Favorable 20% 33% Unfavorable 77% 64% Do not recognize 3% 3% 10

11 Donald Trump BY PARTY Democrat Republican Independent Favorable 9% 46% 33% Unfavorable 89% 51% 64% Do not recognize 2% 3% 3% 11

12 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL HORSERACE IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

13 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next President of the United States. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote for? 58% 28% 3% 2% 1% 1% 7% Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Other Not Voting for President Don't know/no answer 13

14 If the 2016 presidential election to elect the next President of the United States were held today and the candidates were the Democrat Hillary Clinton and the Republican Donald Trump, whom would you vote for? MAY 2016 RESULTS Hillary Clinton 52% Donald Trump 25% Undecided 23% MAY

15 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next President of the United States. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote for? BY RACE White-Anglo Hispanic Black Hillary Clinton 52% 52% 85% Donald Trump 31% 34% 6% Gary Johnson 2% 4% - Jill Stein 4% 1% 3% Someone Else 2% 1% - Not voting for President 2% 1% 1% Don t know/ No answer 7% 7% 5% 15

16 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next President of the United States. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote for? BY HISPANIC HERITAGE Cuban Non-Cuban Hispanic Hillary Clinton 41% 67% Donald Trump 47% 15% Gary Johnson 2% 7% Jill Stein - 2% Someone Else 1% - Not voting for President 2% - Don t know/ No answer 7% 9% 16

17 Previous Click to edit Election Master Results title style in Miami-Dade County (as of )** Democrat 52.6%* 52.9%* 57.8%* 61.6%* 58% Republican 46.3%* 46.6%* 41.7%* 37.9%* 28% *Source: Miami-Dade County Elections **Source: Bendixen & Amandi 17

18 U.S. SENATE RACE

19 Patrick Murphy Very/Somewhat Favorable 16% 16% 32% Somewhat/Very Unfavorable 6% 9% 15% Do not recognize/ No opinion 53% 19

20 Patrick Murphy BY RACE White-Anglo Hispanic Black Favorable 46% 19% 47% Unfavorable 21% 15% 9% Do not recognize 33% 66% 44% 20

21 Patrick Murphy BY LANGUAGE English Spanish Favorable 44% 17% Unfavorable 16% 13% Do not recognize 40% 70% 21

22 Marco Rubio Very/Somewhat Favorable 33% 20% 53% Somewhat/Very Unfavorable 10% 31% 41% Do not recognize/ No opinion 6% 22

23 Marco Rubio BY RACE White-Anglo Hispanic Black Favorable 48% 64% 25% Unfavorable 51% 31% 64% Do not recognize 1% 5% 11% 23

24 Marco Rubio BY LANGUAGE English Spanish Favorable 40% 67% Unfavorable 55% 26% Do not recognize 5% 7% 24

25 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next United States Senator from Florida, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? 46% 46% 1% 7% Patrick Murphy Marco Rubio Other Don't know/no answer 25

26 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next United States Senator from Florida, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? BY RACE White-Anglo Hispanic Black Patrick Murphy 57% 32% 75% Marco Rubio 33% 59% 17% Someone Else 4% - - Don t know/ No answer 6% 9% 8% 26

27 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next United States Senator from Florida, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? BY LANGUAGE English Spanish Patrick Murphy 63% 27% Marco Rubio 29% 63% Someone Else 2% - Don t know/ No answer 6% 10% 27

28 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next United States Senator from Florida, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? BY HISPANIC HERITAGE Cuban Non-Cuban Hispanic Patrick Murphy 17% 53% Marco Rubio 75% 36% Someone Else - - Don t know/ No answer 8% 11% 28

29 TOP LOCAL ISSUE

30 5% 4% 3% 2% 4% 2% Which of the following do you think is the MOST important issue facing Click Miami-Dade to edit County Master today? title style 18% 18% 13% 13% 10% 8% Jobs and the economy Youth gun violence Cost of Living Government Corruption Traffic congestion Quality of public schools Public safety Income inequality Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Zika Other Don't know/no answer 30

31 Which of the following do you think is the MOST important issue facing Click Miami-Dade to edit County Master today? title style BY GENDER Male Female Jobs and the Economy 17% 19% Youth Gun Violence 10% 24% Cost of Living 13% 13% Government Corruption 17% 10% Traffic Congestion 14% 7% Quality of Public Schools 7% 8% Public Safety 4% 6% Income Inequality 5% 3% Climate Change and Sea Level Rise 4% 3% Zika 2% 2% Something Else 4% 3% Don t Know/No Answer 3% 2% 31

32 Which of the following do you think is the MOST important issue facing Click Miami-Dade to edit County Master today? title style BY RACE White Hispanic Black Jobs and the Economy 20% 19% 15% Youth Gun Violence 10% 16% 35% Cost of Living 9% 14% 11% Government Corruption 17% 14% 6% Traffic Congestion 18% 10% 3% Quality of Public Schools 8% 7% 9% Public Safety 2% 7% 4% Income Inequality 5% 4% 4% Climate Change and Sea Level Rise 9% 2% 1% Zika 1% 3% 2% Something Else 1% 3% 7% Don t Know/No Answer - 1% 3% 32

33 THE 2016 MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MAYORAL ELECTION RUN-OFF

34 NOW I AM GOING TO READ YOU SOME POLITICAL LEADERS. PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU HAVE A FAVORABLE OPINION OR AN UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF THE NAMES READ TO YOU. IF YOU DO NOT RECOGNIZE THE NAME, JUST LET ME KNOW.

35 Carlos Gimenez Very/Somewhat Favorable 25% 31% 56% Somewhat/Very Unfavorable 9% 14% 23% Do not recognize/ No Opinion 21% 35

36 Raquel Regalado Very/Somewhat Favorable 21% 19% 40% Somewhat/Very Unfavorable 9% 11% 20% Do not recognize/ No opinion 40% 36

37 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next Mayor of Miami-Dade County, if the election for Mayor of Miami-Dade County was held today whom would you vote for? 55% 33% 12% Carlos Gimenez Raquel Regalado Don't know/ No answer 37

38 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next Mayor of Miami-Dade County, if the election for Mayor of Miami-Dade County was held today whom would you vote for? BY GENDER Male Female Carlos Gimenez 50% 58% Raquel Regalado 37% 30% Don t know/no answer 13% 12% 38

39 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next Mayor of Miami-Dade County, if the election for Mayor of Miami-Dade County was held today whom would you vote for? BY AGE Carlos Gimenez 50% 53% 58% 56% Raquel Regalado 31% 38% 30% 32% Don t know/no answer 19% 9% 12% 12% 39

40 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next Mayor of Miami-Dade County, if the election for Mayor of Miami-Dade County was held today whom would you vote for? BY PARTY Democrat Republican Independent Carlos Gimenez 60% 54% 46% Raquel Regalado 27% 33% 42% Don t know/no answer 13% 13% 12% 40

41 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next Mayor of Miami-Dade County, if the election for Mayor of Miami-Dade County was held today whom would you vote for? BY RACE White Hispanic Black Carlos Gimenez 64% 48% 63% Raquel Regalado 19% 41% 24% Don t know/no answer 17% 11% 13% 41

42 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next Mayor of Miami-Dade County, if the election for Mayor of Miami-Dade County was held today whom would you vote for? CUBANS 48% 42% 10% Carlos Gimenez Raquel Regalado Don't know/ No answer 42

43 In November of 2016 there will be an election to choose the next Mayor of Miami-Dade County, if the election for Mayor of Miami-Dade County was held today whom would you vote for? BY LANGUAGE English Spanish Carlos Gimenez 63% 46% Raquel Regalado 21% 45% Don t know/no answer 16% 9% 43

44 ZIKA

45 IN JULY IT WAS DISCOVERED FOR THE FIRST TIME THAT THERE WAS A LOCALLY TRANSMITTED CASE OF THE ZIKA VIRUS IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, SINCE THEN THERE HAVE BEEN 110 LOCALLY TRANSMITTED CASES OF THE DISEASE.

46 How concerned are you about the presence of the Zika virus in Miami-Dade County? Very/Somewhat Concerned 50% 31% 81% Somewhat/Not concerned at all 7% 12% 19% 46

47 How personally concerned are you potentially contracting the Zika virus? Very/Somewhat Concerned 35% 27% 62% Somewhat/Not concerned at all 9% 28% 37% Don't know/no answer 1% 47

48 In your opinion, what level of government is most responsible for addressing the Zika issue: 22% 19% 18% 26% 12% 3% State Government Federal Government County Government City Government All of the above Don't know/no answer 48

49 How satisfied are you with the manner in which Miami-Dade County government officials have responded to the Zika outbreak? Very/Somewhat Satisfied 28% 45% 73% Somewhat/Very Unsatisfied 13% 8% 21% Don't Know/ No Answer 6% 49

50 STATE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

51 The Florida Right to Medical Marijuana Initiative will appear on the November 8, 2016 ballot in the state of Florida as a constitutional amendment. Upon voter approval, the measure would allow the medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed Florida Physician. It would also allow caregivers to assist patients medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not immunize violations of federal law or any non-medical use, possession or production of marijuana.

52 If the election were held today would you vote yes or no? 4% 38% 58% Yes No Don't know/no answer 52

53 Do you support or oppose the amendment that would permit the medical use of marijuana within the State of Florida? MAY 2016 RESULTS 3% 36% 61% Support Oppose Undecided MAY

54 If the election were held today would you vote yes or no? BY GENDER Male Female Yes 65% 53% No 32% 42% Don t know/no answer 3% 5% 54

55 If the election were held today would you vote yes or no? BY AGE Yes 73% 70% 56% 41% No 26% 29% 40% 52% Don t know/no answer 1% 1% 4% 7% 55

56 If the election were held today would you vote yes or no? BY RACE White Hispanic Black Yes 80% 50% 62% No 20% 46% 32% Don t know/no answer - 4% 6% 56

57 If the election were held today would you vote yes or no? BY LANGUAGE English Spanish Yes 70% 45% No 27% 50% Don t know/no answer 3% 5% 57

58 COUNTY CHARTER AMENDMENT

59 A POTENTIAL AMENDMENT TO THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY CHARTER HAS BEEN PROPOSED WHICH WOULD BAN CAMPAIGN DONATIONS FROM LOBBYISTS AND GOVERNMENT VENDORS TO CANDIDATES FOR COUNTY OFFICE SUCH AS MAYOR AND COUNTY COMMISSIONER, THE AMENDMENT WOULD ALSO LOWER THE MAXIMUM INDIVIDUAL CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTION FROM $1,000 TO $250.

60 Do you support or oppose a charter amendment that would ban campaign donation from lobbyists and government vendors and lower the maximum individual campaign contribution from $1,000 to $250 within Miami-Dade County? 25% 12% 63% Support Oppose Don't know/no answer 60

61 Do you support or oppose a charter amendment that would ban campaign donation from lobbyists and government vendors and lower the maximum individual campaign contribution from $1,000 to $250 within Miami-Dade County? BY RACE White Hispanic Black Support 77% 64% 44% Oppose 13% 24% 39% Don t know/no answer 10% 12% 17% 61

62 Do you support or oppose a charter amendment that would ban campaign donation from lobbyists and government vendors and lower the maximum individual campaign contribution from $1,000 to $250 within Miami-Dade County? BY AGE Support 63% 66% 70% 55% Oppose 28% 23% 22% 25% Don t know/no answer 9% 11% 8% 20% 62

63 Do you support or oppose a charter amendment that would ban campaign donation from lobbyists and government vendors and lower the maximum individual campaign contribution from $1,000 to $250 within Miami-Dade County? BY PARTY Democrat Republican Independent Support 60% 64% 67% Oppose 27% 23% 22% Don t know/no answer 13% 13% 11% 63

64 JUDICIAL ELECTIONS

65 IN FLORIDA, ELECTIONS ARE HELD EITHER TO SELECT JUDGES OR DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO RETAIN JUDGES. SOME PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT JUDGES SHOULD BE APPOINTED AND NOT BE SUBJECT TO A POPULAR VOTE BECAUSE VOTERS ARE LARGELY IGNORANT ABOUT JUDICIAL CANDIDATES QUALIFICATIONS AND THE FUNDRAISING NECESSARY TO RUN CAMPAIGNS PRESENTS A POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST THAT COULD IMPACT HOW A JUDGE MIGHT RULE ON CASES. OTHERS BELIEVE THAT BECAUSE JUDGES HOLD TREMENDOUS POWER IN OUR SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT AND THAT JUDGES SHOULD BE ELECTED AND SUBJECT TO POPULAR VOTE IN ORDER TO HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE TO THE PUBLIC.

66 Do you believe that judges should be appointed and not be subject to popular vote or that judges should be elected and subject to popular vote? 56% 6% 38% Judges Should Be Appointed and Not Subject To Popular Vote Judges Should Be Elected and Subject to Popular Vote 66

67 Do you believe that judges should be appointed and not be subject to popular vote or that judges should be elected and subject to popular vote? BY RACE White Hispanic Black Judges should be appointed and not subject to vote Judges should be elected and subject to popular vote 50% 36% 31% 48% 55% 67% Don t know/no answer 2% 9% 2% 67

68 DEMOGRAPHICS

69 In what country were you born? 42% 31% 10% 6% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3% United States Cuba South America Central America Haiti Jamaica/Bahamas Puerto Rico Dominican Republic Other 69

70 In what country were most of your parents and grandparents born? 78% 6% 6% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% United States Cuba Puerto Rico Central America Haiti Dominican Republic Jamaica/Bahamas South America 70

71 The media in Miami generally classifies people as White-Anglo, Hispanic, Black or Asian- what do you consider yourself? 58% 21% 19% 2% White-Anglo Hispanic Black Asian/Other 71

72 Gender 43% 57% Male Female 72

73 Party 24% 32% 1% 43% Democrat Republican Independent Other 73

74 Age 21% 24% 26% 29%

75 Language of Interview 47% 53% English Spanish 75

76 For more information, contact: Fernand Amandi Principal (305) Miami-Dade County Local Issues Poll: Survey of Miami-Dade County Voters October /21/