Back Boris 2012: The re-election campaign for the Mayor of London.

Transcription

1 Back Boris 2012: The re-election campaign for the Mayor of London

2 To understand what happened in 2012, look at st Preference Votes 1 st & 2 nd Preference Votes Boris Johnson Ken Livingstone 1,043,761 (43.2%) 893,877 (37.0%) 1,168,738 (53.2%) 1,028,966 (46.8%)

3 London a Labour city Tory 1 st Pref. Votes Labour 1 st Pref. Votes Boris 2008 Norris 2004 Norris ,043,761 Livingstone ,423 Livingstone ,434 Livingstone , , ,877

4 2008: Doughnut strategy plus the hole 2004 London Mayoral first preference votes by borough 2006 local elections control of borough councils London Mayoral first preference votes by borough

5 2008 campaign Back Boris: A change for the better A tale of two Londons The public London and The London I live in We persuaded swing voters on the issues and motivated Conservative voters to turn out

6 2012: the national picture

7 Greater London: General election 2010 Party MPs Labour 38 Conservative 28 Liberal Democrat 7

8 Difficult times Recession Riots in August 2011 Cost of living rising A 17 point Labour lead in London in January 2012

9 UK Right/Wrong Direction Right Direction 26% 40% 38% 33% 34% 37% 41% Wrong Direction 47% 46% 46% 47% 47% 48% 46% Don't know Net -20% -14% -12% -11% -7% -8% -5% Q1) Thinking about the UK as a whole, do you believe the country is headed in the right direction, or seriously headed in the wrong direction? 14% 15% 20% 19% 15% 12% 28% Definite Voters Total Likely Voters Soft Voters Inner London Outer London Inner Definite Outer Definite

10 London Right/Wrong Direction Right Direction 29% 37% 40% 46% 45% 46% 46% Wrong Direction 38% 37% 39% 38% 38% 39% 37% Don't know 16% 18% 15% 17% 25% 22% 32% Net -10% -1% 2% Q2) Thinking about London now, do you believe London is heading in the right or seriously headed in the wrong direction? 8% 8% 7% 9% Definite Voters Total Likely Voters Soft Voters Inner London Outer London Inner Definite

11 2012: the London picture

12 Things that mattered Value for money Crime Transport Local environment Housing Olympic Legacy Cost of Living Standing up for London

13 Q18) If the election for Mayor of London was held today, what is the most important issue that would determine who you would vote for? That issue can be to do with the candidates, local issues, national issues, or anything else that is important to you in determining your vote. Most important issue in determining vote

14 Candidates and Issues: Definite Voter Current Low influence on vote High influence on vote KL/Lab. Positioning Model Accuracy Good ~ Reversed negative statement ^ New statement BJ/Con Positioning 14

15 Boris Johnson Base Swing Ken Livingstone Base Age Social Class A, B, C1 C2 D, E Location Outer London Inner London Location Home Ownership North West; South West; Home Owner, Own with a mortgage Rent from someone else North East, South East Rent from council/ LA Ethnicity White South Asian; Black; Other Asian Religion Christian; Jewish No religion Muslim, Hindu Gender Male Female

16 Back Boris 2012: My 9 point plan for securing Greater London s future

17 The questions for 2012 What has he done? What will he do?

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19 Communicating Boris s Record Produced 30 different localised versions of a newspaper Delivered to 1.8 million homes in priority wards

20 Communicating Boris s Record Front and back pages

21 Final #AskBoris Chat: reached 628,789 people trended 3 rd worldwide and 1 st in the UK By election day: 5,262 followers 300,000 followers 140,000+ Facebook likes Weibo account for Chinese Brits Building online presence

22 Localised content

23 347 Priority Wards in

24 Priority Wards 2012

25 Swing by ward 2.00% 1.00% 1.42% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.13% 1.25% 3.00% 4.00% All P Non P All wards

26 Regulated Period The regulated period runs from the time of nomination to Polling Day a maximum of 44 days (20 March 2012) Spending limit is 420,000 Party Election Broadcast: U

27 2012 results Boris Johnson Ken Livingstone 1 st Preference Votes 971,931(44 %) 889,918 (40.3%) 1 st & 2 nd Preference Votes 1,054,811 (51.53%) 992,273 (48.47%)

28 Why did we win?

29 1. Boris 2. Campaign team 3. Research 4. 9 point plan 5. Can t trust Ken 6. Visual presence Postal votes Electoral roll

30 Why did we win? The Boris factor

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32 Boris Johnson s Conservatism Traditional Conservative values interpreted through modern policies Urban, metropolitan Green Low tax Socially liberal OPTIMISTIC

33 Personalities not parties Boris v. Ken NOT Conservative v.labour Boris as own voice to national Party and Government, yet campaigned as Conservative Used independent campaign and research team, yet deployed party grassroots machinery Personally very popular, even after difficult Tory Budget Ken Livingstone as trade union candidate, not New Labour

34 The Heineken Tory Boris, "the Heineken Tory" who reaches parts of the electorate that other Conservatives don't Boris's appeal stretches beyond London and the core Tory vote A leader is a dealer in hope, said Napoleon. In these tough times Boris is the politician who provides most hope to London and, increasingly, to the grassroots of the Conservative Party." Avowedly Conservative with a big C and a small c Business leaders back Boris to drive recovery

35 Why did we win? Practical lessons

36 Differentiation Candidate v. Party Mayoral race v. general election London as international city v. New York RESEARCH

37 Boris v Ken Boris Forward Positive plans Ken Backwards Same old policies For all zones For Zone 1 Unifying Pragmatic action Champion for all Londoners Divisive All talk For his cronies

38 Discipline Year of record work 9 point plan All negative campaigning done by others than candidate

39 The Frame Choice between moving Greater London forwards with Boris or taking it backwards

40 The vision Optimistic for London s future despite difficult times

41 The result Centre right Conservative Mayor of a left Labour city

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