SINGAPORE GENERAL ELECTION 2011 PUBLIC OPINION POLL APRIL 2011

Transcription

1 SINGAPORE GENERAL ELECTION 11 PUBLIC OPINION POLL APRIL 11 1

2 Introduction Survey Specs Telephone interviews on 611 Singapore ci5zens aged 18+ Interviews carried between 27 th April to 5 th May 11 Based random stra*fied sampling on basis of cons*tuency, ethnic group and age groups Es5mated margin of error ± 3.96%

3 Respondents Demographic Profile The breakdown of respondents is based on five key areas in Singapore, Central Singapore (22%), North East (24%), North West (19%), South East (16%) and South West (%). Majority are Chinese (74%) followed by Malays and Indians at 15% and 11% respectively. More than half of the respondents were aged and above, while a quarter were senior citizens. Most of the voters received secondary level education (39%) and 22% had tertiary education and above. Nearly % of respondents were those earning $ and above; and 15% saw themselves as professionals. Location Gender Ethnic Age Central Singapore North East North West South East South West 45.5 Male 54.5 Female 15.4 Chinese Malay Indian/ Others > 7 Education No formal education 7. Primary School 15.2 Secondary School 39.4 Polytechnic 9.5 Profesional Qualification & other diploma 5.1 Degree/ University 19.1 Master and above 2.9 No response 1.6 Monthly Household Income $ 1, 16.5 $11- $ 16.5 $21- $ 22.4 $1- $ $71- $1, 7.2 $1,1 8. Don t know/ No response 16.7 Senior Officials & Managers Occupation 4.9 Professional 14.9 Associate Professional & Technicians Clerical Worker 4.4 Plant & Machine Operators & Assemblers Cleaners, Labourers & Related Workers Student 6.1 Unemployed, lost ability to work Service & Sales Workers 7.4 Homemaker 17.8 Agricultural & Fishery.2 Retired 17.5 Production Craftsmen & Related Workers Others/ No respons 9. 3

4 Sources of Information Radio Radio Newspaper 1. Straits Times 2. Berita Harian 3. Zaoboa n= Internet Conclusions Television 1. Channel 8 2. Channel 5 3. Channel News Asia Most voters receive information on local politics and current issues from newspapers and television. More than half get it from both sources (newspaper and television) and only a handful from the radio. 1 Source of Information First Source Second Source Total Newspaper TV channel Internet Radio News via Internet by Age Groups First Source Second Source Total Q: Please tell TWO (2) sources/channels you consider to be your main source of information about domestic political and current affairs? 4

5 Right vs Wrong Track A vast majority of voters felt the country was headed on the right track. The stability of the economy., social harmony and peacefulness, good management of the government and ability to meet the needs of the people were their main concerns. % Singapore is moving in the right / wrong direction 1 Right Direction Wrong Direction Overall Male Female Chinese Malay Indian Reasons for positive response Reasons for negative response I. Good economic conditions and high employment rate (17%) I. High cost of living including property, healthcare, transportation, education and especially increasing price II. No disaster, safe, stable and peaceful, disciplined of goods (%) citizens and racial harmony (12%) II. Weak performance by previous government affects III. Good government and accountable leaders with good policies and implementation (11%) people in low income groups. limited jobs and low wages, does not care enough for the people (17%) IV. Good standard of living including good education opportunities (9%) III. Not enough done to take care of the welfare of low income, and senior citizens groups, these differences n =447 create gaps within society (13%) n =77 Q: Considering the conditions in the country today, how strongly would you say that things are heading in the right or wrong direction? Q: And what would you say is the issue that is the main reason for you answering right/wrong direction? 5

6 People s Action Party (PAP) Public perception towards the PAP s renewal as a party is positive in general but significant differences along income and generation Perceptions on PAP by Ethnic Groups Perceptions on PAP by Income ( ) Overall Chinese Malay Indian Perceptions on PAP by Age Groups Conclusion > 7 Confidence in the PAP s regeneration as a party is very high (nearly two-thirds) but survey found that higher income and younger voters were somewhat less impressed. We also found that 31% of young voters did not hesitate to register their disagreement with the ruling party. Q: Do you think PAP s renewal (re-generation) as a party is progressing well? 6

7 Support for Stronger Opposition Two-thirds of Singaporean voters support the idea of having a stronger opposition in Parliament. Again, survey shows dichotomy between generations and income levels Major Ethnic Groups by Income ( ) Overall Chinese Malay Indian Age Groups Conclusion > 7 Support for stronger opposition presence in Parliament is apparent among all Singaporeans and extends to those below years old. We also found income again to be related to such sentiments. Q: Do you think that Singapore needs a stronger opposition? 7

8 New candidates and the PAP Mixed views on the ability of new candidates to improve PAP chances. Some differences along ethnic lines. Perceptions on PAP by Ethnic Groups Perceptions on PAP by Income ( ) Overall Chinese Malay Indian Perceptions on PAP by Age Groups Conclusion > 7 Confidence in the ability of new candidates to boost PAP chances in the election was mixed. Indicates that while candidates are important, there were other issues that voters felt needed to be addressed by the party. Q: In this election, PAP party are introducing a number of new candidates. Do you think that these new candidates with strengthen the performance of the PAP? 8

9 New candidates and the Opposition New candidates from the opposition connected well with the younger generation of voters Major Ethnic Groups Income ( ) Overall Chinese Malay Indian Age Groups > 7 Conclusion As opposed to the PAP, the inclusion of new faces in the opposition line up appeared to complement their campaign efforts. These new candidates appeared to have captivated the mood for renewal among younger voters. Q: In this election, Opposition parties are introducing a number of new candidates. Do you think that these new candidates with strengthen the performance of the Opposition? 9

10 Perceived Credibility of the Opposition Overall, opposition credibility appeared limited but stronger trust found among younger voters and those with higher income Major Ethnic Groups Income ( ) 1 Credible Not Credible Overall Chinese Malay Indian 1 Credible Not Credible Age Groups Conclusion 1 Credible Not Credible > 7 Perceived credibility of opposition parties differ along age and location. Workers Party seen as most promising among those contesting. Q: Do you think the opposition party in your area is credible? 1

11 Perceived Credibility of the Opposition Workers Party has the highest net credibility rating among the Opposition. However, biggest challenge is the lack of public exposure/awareness about the Opposition, its leaders and platform 1% Credible Not credible Don t know No response % % % % % Worker's Party Singapore National Solidarity Democractic Party Party Singapore Democractic Alliance Reform Party Singapore People's Party Q: Do you think the opposition party in your area is credible? 11

12 PAP vs the Opposition Younger voters more open about disclosing political choice (for the PAP and even the Opposition) More than half of respondents did not want to disclose their choice. Many undecided voters in campaign. 1 People s Action Party (PAP) Opposition Parties PAP Vs Opposition Parties Overall Chinese Malay Indian > Reasons to Vote for the PAP Reasons to Vote for the Opposition Parties I. Has good track record (27%) II. More established with known ability to govern the country (17%) III. Opposition not strong enough; has nothing proven or guaranteed (1%) IV. PAP has done well in providing support and welfare, deliver what they promise (9%) V. Because of the PAP, Singapore was able to progress and able to overcome many problems including the economic crisis (9%) Q: If the elections were held today, would you be more likely to vote for the PAP or the opposition? Q: Why would you be more likely to vote for the PAP/ opposition? I. Opposition has credibility and candidates (19%) II. Singapore needs stronger opposition in parliament (19%) III. Opposition has better ideas and more appealing issues (15%) IV. PAP government not concerned enough towards the people, Opposition more concerned and friendly (15%) V. Vote for opposition as a protest to certain policies by PAP government, give opposition a chance (11%) n =231 n =53 12

13 More Seats for Opposition? While a majority agree for a stronger opposition, the electorate is split in seeing them possess more seats in Parliament Major Ethnic Groups Income ( ) 1 Yes No Overall Chinese Malay Indian Yes No Age Groups Conclusion 7 1 Yes No > 7 Although a majority wants a stronger Opposition, it does not necessarily mean more seats in parliament. While younger voters seek a stronger Opposition voice, they were more cautious compared to the -year olds in contemplating handing more seats to the Opposition. Q: Are Singapore opposition parties ready for more seats in parliament? 13

14 Favorability towards Parties Despite PAP s strong advantage, a majority of Singaporean voters were warm towards the WP 1% % % % % % Favourble Not favourable Don t know this party Don't know/ No response People Action Party Worker's Party Singapore Democractic Party Conclusions Singapore People's Party National Solidarity Party Singapore Democractic Alliance Although the PAP retains a dominant position in Singapore politics, there is significant positive perception towards the Workers Party. Favorable views towards the WP is at least twice larger when compared to other Opposition parties A significant challenge for Opposition parties is to establish credible outreach to voters and maintain presence 14

15 Satisfaction with Government Performance Strong satisfaction with government on the back of delivered promises; clean and effective governance and competent handling of the economy. Some level of dissatisfaction due to cost of living/inflation pressures. % Satisfied/ Dissatisfied with the Government Performance Overall Male Female Chinese Malay Indian Reasons for positive response I. Good governance and leadership, policies implementation, no corruption, transparent and delivered promises (17%) II. No major problems; good quality of life conditions (13%) III. Economic stability and high employment rate (11%) IV. Delivered good welfare to the people (11%) V. Stability and safety ensured, free to practice religion and racial harmony (1%) Q: How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with how the government is performing these days? Q: And what would you say is the issue that is the main reason for your answer? Reasons for negative response I. High cost of living, GST, transport fares, increasing price of goods and cost of education (%) II. Need more opposition in parliament for different views, better check and balance (1%) III. Immigration/ foreign workers issue (1%) IV. Government not showing enough concern to the lower income group (9%) n =457 n =114 15

16 Conclusions Main findings and take out points Factors PAP con5nues to retain the trust and the confidence of the electorate The party s strong posi5on in society indicates fielding new candidates need to be complemented by new policy prescrip5ons to address public issues Strong democra5c and pragma5c impulse among voters wan5ng to see a louder opposi5on but cau5ous about giving more seats for now Demographics Clear dichotomy with genera5on and class, the younger and richer have different views about poli5cs; Some elements of ethnic influence Access to informa5on technology poten5ally a key role in influencing younger voters. 55% use it as a source for news.