RISK ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL MARKETS May 28, 2010
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1 2010 Q2 CURRENT SITUATION AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT RISK ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA: IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL MARKETS May 28,
2 Disclaimer Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not make investment recommendations. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. For more information, including Terms of Use of our information, please go to Hedgeye Risk Management LLC All rights reserved. 2
3 If North Korea is allowed to maintain its nuclear weapons programs, other nations may well follow suit and some may buy such weapons from the North Koreans. - Robert F. Ellsworth In time, all of Korea will be united in liberty. -Richard Perle I shall make that trip. I shall go to Korea -Dwight D. Eisenhower 3
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5 North Korean population is 24.1MM Life expectancy of 63.8 years equal to Burma and Pakistan Infant mortality 2.5x China and 12x South Korea One of the most ethnic and religiously homogenous in the world One of five remaining Communist states Along with Cuba, the only two with complete command economies Key economic characteristics GDP per capita is $4,058 and average salary is $47 per month Economy is completely nationalized, so citizens pay no taxes Dominant sectors are industry (43%), services 34%, and agriculture 23.3% Does have decent resource base coal, iron, zinc, and fresh fruit Leadership Kim Jong-il is defacto head of state, son of N. Korea founder Fifth largest army in world with 1.2 million armed personnel - legacy equipment 5
6 South Korean population is 50.1MM Average life expectancy is 79.1 Birth rate is the world s lowest, population will decrease by 13 percent by 2050 Currently the world s ninth largest exporter and 15 th largest economy Current Chair of the G20 former South Korean Foreign Minister GDP per capita is $28,000 GDP by sector agriculture (3%), industry (40%), and services (58%) Debt to GDP less than 30% and deficit to GDP less than 3% Economy driven by large conglomerates, who are world leaders (Samsung, Hyundai, Samsung Life, etc) South Korea allocates 2.6% of GDP and 15% of government spending to military Sixth largest active troops, and second largest reserve troops for a total of 3.7MM 6
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10 March 19 North Korea arrested and perhaps executed its top finance official April 2 North Korean economist Ri Ki Song interviews on Reuters claiming stable economy April 17 North Korea denies involvement in sinking of South Korean war ship May 6 Foreign journalists verify a state visit to China by Kim Jong-il May 20 South Korea formally accuses North Korea of sinking ship May 21 Secretary of State Clinton harshly condemns North Korea May 24 South Korean sanctions called most serious actions short of armed retaliation. Supported by Obama administration May 26 Secretary of State Clinton offers evidence to China of North Korean responsibility 10
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13 Currently, diplomat in residence and lecturer in International Studies at Yale who teaches: Studies in Grand Strategy with Paul Kennedy and John Gaddis Oratory in Statecraft Currently, at the Stanford s Hoover Institute where he is a member of the Working Group on Islamism and the International Order Former career U.S. Foreign Service Officer, and advised: Ronald Reagan George Shultz Henry Kissinger Boutros Boutros-Ghali A.B. Degree from Brown University in 1957, J.D. degree from University of Pennsylvania in 1960, and M.A. from University of Pennsylvania in
14 Importance of Korean issues post Korean War? Rationale behind recent North Korean moves? How serious is North Korean nuclear threat? View of probability of escalation? Potential outcome of any escalation? U.S. involvement Chinese involvement Russian involvement What is the worse case scenario? What is the likely outcome? 14
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17 This presentation was prepared by Keith McCullough, Daryl Jones, Howard Penney, Matt Hedrick, and Darius Dale. For more information and a complete listing of research please see: or sales@hedgeye.com 17
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