Congressional Candidates /252 Fall 2016
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1 Congressional Candidates /252 all
2 The Hierarchical Structure of unning for Office 2
3 Tsongas Clark Moulton Kennedy Lynch Keating ata via US epartment of the Interior. These images are in the public domain. 3
4 8th istrict 1998 Geography elmont Watertown Cambridge Somerville Chelsea oston 4
5 8 th istrict 1998 Candidates Mike Capuano (Somerville mayor) (19,439) ay lynn (former oston Mayor) (14,829) George achrach (former state sen. & almost-ep.) (12,166) John O Connor (rich husband) (11,035) Marjorie Claprood (former state rep & radio personality) (10,358) Chris Gabrieli (rich guy) (5,732) Chris ancy (oston city council) (4,460) Susan Tracy (former state. Sen.) (2,855) Tom Keane (oston city council) (2,150) lex odriguez (1,799) 5
6 8th istrict 1998 Schematic of support achrach Capuano elmont Watertown Cambridge Somerville Chelsea Tracy oston lynn O Connor? Claprood? Gabrieli? odriguez? ancy Mike Capuano (Somerville mayor) (19,439) ay lynn (former oston Mayor) (14,829) George achrach (former state sen.) (12,166) John O Connor (rich husband) (11,035) Marjorie Claprood (former state rep & radio personality) (10,358) Chris Gabrieli (rich guy) (5,732) Chris ancy (oston city council) (4,460) Susan Tracy (former state. Sen.) (2,855) Tom Keane (oston city council) (2,150) lex odriguez (1,799) 6
7 8th istrict 1998 Expr1 Expr L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L KK K O O O O O O O O O O O O O O T T T istrict Support Mike Capuano (Somerville mayor) (19,439) ay lynn (former oston Mayor) (14,829) George achrach (former state sen.) (12,166) John O Connor (rich husband) (11,035) Marjorie Claprood (former state rep & radio personality) (10,358) Chris Gabrieli (rich guy) (5,732) Chris ancy (oston city council) (4,460) Susan Tracy (former state. Sen.) (2,855) Tom Keane (oston city council) (2,150) lex odriguez (1,799) 7
8 MEO EVEETT 8 SOMEVILLE CMIGE
9 Capuano Support 9
10 Strategic Choice and Political Careers E(a ) PU C i i i i E(a j ) P j U j C j 10
11 Some important considerations Variations in variable values across time cross-sectionally actors that affect the calculus of progressive ambition E(a ) PU C i i i i 11
12 actors that ffect the CalculuI of Progressive mbition U L vs. U H P L vs. P H C L vs. C H -Scope of legislative authority -Political and policy resources within the institution -Pay and perquisites -Springboard effects -National forces -Party identification in the districts -edistricting -Scandal -Opportunities foregone -Number and quality of challengers -und-raising efficiency -Efficiency of translating money and volunteer time into votes 12
13 Pay and Perquisites of state legislatures (some examples) State Stipend Travel allowance labama $10/day (C) $4,308/month plus $50/day for three days during each week that the legislature actually meets during any session (U). California $90,526/year $ per day for each day they are in session Georgia $17,341/yr $173/day (U) set by the Legislative Services Committee. Massachusetts $60,032.6 /year rom $10/day-$100/day, depending on distance from State House (V) set by the legislature. New Hampshire $200/two-year term No per diem is paid. hode Island $14,947.34/yr No per diem is paid. West Virginia $20,000/yr $131/day during session (U) set by compensation commission U = Unvouchered V Vouchered C = Calendar ay Source: National Conference on State Legislatures 13
14 Quote removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see Mehta, Seema. "L.. County oard of Supervisors: 5 jobs politicians especially covet." Los ngeles Times. September 6,
15 Variation in state legislative capacities Category of Legislature Green (Used to be ed) Gray (Used to be White) Time on the Job Compensation Total Staff/ legislature 82% $81,079 1,340 70% $43, Gold (Used to be lue) 54% $19, National Conference of State Legislatures. ll rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. or more information, see ocw.mit.edu/help/faq-fair-use/ Source: 15
16 40% 30% 20% 10% % -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% National tides House Senate Midterm change Election year 16
17 The National Tide in 2006, 2010, 2014 etiring from the Senate 1994: 0, 3 (+8) 1998: 1, 3 (0) 2002: 4, 1 (+2) 2006: 6, 0 (+6) 2010: 5, 3 (+6) 2014: 2, 5 (+9) etiring from the House 1994: 0, 34 (+52) 1998: 10, 12 (+5) 2002: 12, 6 (+8) 2006: 21, 0 (+30) 2010: 8, 11 (+63) 2014: 14, 10 (+13) 17
18 Why the midterm loss? Surge and decline effect Strategic voters Strategic politicians 18
19 Surge and decline effect* Good em. Midterm Good ep. Midterm Pres l ear Pres l ear *Similar to Erikson & Wright s withdrawn coattails effect 19
20 Strategic voters* (not to scale) Ticket-splitters Pres l election year d r d r Midterm w/ em. pres. d r *Policy = w(president s ideal point) + (1-w)(Congress s ideal point) Similar to Erikson and Wright s ideological balancing, but more precise. 20
21 Strategic voters (not to scale) Pres l election year d r d r Midterm w/ em. pres. d r 21
22 Strategic Candidates Pct. loss in president's party House Pct. change in real disposable income, Q4 to Q1 Pct. loss in president's party Senate Pct. change in real disposable income, Q4 to Q1 2 =.38 2 =.28 22
23 Strategic Candidates House Senate Pct. loss in president's party Pct. loss in president's party Pct. change in real disposable income, Q4 to Q Pct. change in real disposable income, Q4 to Q1 2 =.38 2 =.28 23
24 Incumbents, challengers, and open seat candidates Incumbents Incumbency advantage Challengers Challenger quality Open seat candidates The free-for-all 24
25 simple look at incumbent advantage in 2010 em pct em. pct., 2008 = 56.0% em. pct., 2010 = 48.5% iff = -7.5% em pct.,
26 simple look at incumbent advantage in incumbents em pct em. pct., 2008 = 56.6% em. pct., 2010 = 49.0% iff = -7.6% em pct.,
27 simple look at incumbent advantage in em. open em pct em. pct., 2008 = 68.5% em. pct., 2010 = 53.1% iff = -15.4% em pct.,
28 simple look at incumbent advantage in 2010 ep. open em pct em. pct., 2008 = 37.4% em. pct., 2010 = 36.8% iff = 0.6% em pct.,
29 2010 summary (compared to 2008) em. pct em. pct % -7.6% % Open, ep. Incumbent Open, em. open10 ddempct mean_ddempct 29
30 2010 summary (compared to 2008) em. pct em. pct % --7.8% Open, ep. Incumbent Open, em. open10 ddempct mean_ddempct 30
31 2010 summary (compared to 2008) em. pct em. pct % Inc adv. =( )/2 = % Open, ep. Incumbent Open, em. open10 ddempct mean_ddempct 31
32 Incumbency dvantage: Primaries igure 2 from nsolabehere, Stephen, John Mark Hansen, Shigeo Hirano, and James M. Snyder. "The incumbency advantage in US primary elections." Electoral Studies 26, no. 3 (2007): Courtesy of Elsevier, Inc., Used with permission. 32
33 Incumbency advantage Why does it exist? udience participation 33
34 Incumbency advantage Why does it exist? ranking, etc. Constituency service edistricting Smarter candidates Spending advantage 34
35 Incumbent-protection gerrymandering rank Wolf (igure 4.1 in nalyzing Congress) 35
36 Geography of Northern Virginia Source Unknown. ll rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. or more information, see 36
37 districts Source Unknown. ll rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. or more information, see 37
38 districts Source Unknown. ll rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. or more information, see 38
39 districts Source Unknown. ll rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. or more information, see 39
40 districts Source Unknown. ll rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. or more information, see 40
41 Effect of 2011 edistricting istrict epublican before epublican after 10 (Wolf) 46% 50% +4% 7 (Cantor) 53% 56% +3% ifference 41
42 ut The New ork Times. ll rights reserved. This content is excluded from our Creative Commons license. or more information, see 42
43 The Incumbency Spending dvantage (Update of ig. 4.2) igure 4.2: verage Campaign und aising in House aces, (2014 dollars) Spending Incumbents Open seats Challengers ear 43
44 (Challenger) Candidate Quality: 2010 Table 4.4 em. Challenger against ep. Incumbent No prior office Held prior office ep. Challenger against em. Incumbent No prior office Held prior office Challenger won 0% 13% 12% 56% Total challengers
45 Candidate Positioning dd-on 45
46 Candidate's Position istrict Conservatism 46
47 istrict conservatism 47 Candidate conservatism
48 istrict conservatism 48 Candidate conservatism
49 Effect of candidates leaving, Leaving etiring Higher office ef. in primary score 49
50 Effect of candidates leaving, Leaving ef. in gen. etiring 0 Higher office dw1 50
51 Effect of candidates leaving, Leaving etiring st dim. dw-nominate Higher office 51
52 MIT OpenCourseWare Congress and the merican Political System I all 2016 or information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit:
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