Revamping Representative Democracy: the case for Paradiplomacy and Public opinion survey. By Aesop 23/06/2012

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1 Revamping Representative Democracy: the case for Paradiplomacy and Public opinion survey By Aesop 23/06/2012 Ethiopia has established the structure of representative democracy through a federal system of government. In particular, the federal structure has empowered regional powers with limitless autonomy. The question is whether they have fully taken advantage of this privilege. There is at least one aspect whereby regions could reap the benefit of federalism-i.e., paradiplomacy. Structure is only one dimension of indirectly ensuring effective popular representation. There is, however, a direct method of amplifying popular representation in politics-i.e., public opinion survey (polling). Polling is (for lack of a better term) a behavioral approach to popular representation. It pertains to a method of diagnosing popular heartbeat based on a carefully selected representative sample and drawing inference about the entire population. This essay makes the case for paradiplomacy departments and polling organizations which should be considered in Ethiopia. During the pre-eprdf time, Ethiopian diplomacy was centralized. This was not an accident, it was done on purpose. The central regime in Addis established a system of dependency where people at the periphery were subdued by force to pay homage and tribute. Addis flourished at the expense of the periphery. The rural periphery was exploited because it was denied the right to sell its product at market price. While they paid homage to Addis, the regions in the periphery were in fact divided. For example, when famine struck northern Ethiopia

2 in the 1980s, there was surplus in the South. But the South couldn t sell its produce to North because Addis followed the surrender or starve policy against the North. Historically, Ethiopia s foreign relation was dominated by legitimate fear to a hostile world. Axum declined when its trade routes were blocked by foreign powers. When Ethiopia was denied an outlet to outside world, economic downturn is what most historians recognize. But the cultural shift and technological opportunity cost are not accounted. Surely, the entrepreneurs of Axum (international traders) must have obviously gone broke-hence, killing the entire economy. This must also have increased dependence on land. When foreign trade halted, resources must have got even more scarce-thus, ushering an era of civil strife. This must have furnished the condition for the rise of the land grabbing class (feudal). What historians might overlook is the consequent shift in values and culture. The triumph of the warlord disseminated his values. Warrior culture replaced civility. Vendetta became a virtue. The churches and mosques became the prime sources of scholarship. Philosophy, literacy, free thought and speculation retreated. The feudal culture made guns indispensible and education unnecessary. The literate were the children of priests. Handicraft which made stalae was degraded to witchcraft. Ambitious young men wanted to carry guns than books or tools. It is somehow like the smart people in America today studying finance rather than physics or math to join defunct financial institutions for quick money. During the era of feudal warlords, Ethiopia was isolated and chaotic. As a result, it missed out on the European Renaissance. Until that period, Europe was like Ethiopia-closed and chaotic. Italy was an exception though because the Catholic Church inherited the Roman Empire (which lacked real power but commanded respect-much like the UN today) by forging an

3 alliance with its feudal class. The feudal lords installed their own siblings in the church. This unusual cooperation between civil and military aroused a new kind of taste, namely: adventurous quest for knowledge. Italy started subsidizing its men of science, art and letters who ventured to the ruins of ancient civilizations to retrieve lost scientific, philosophical and government formulas from ancient Egypt, Greek and Rome. As a result, physical sciences triumphed over dogma and the sword as citadel of true power. The rest of Europe was still in darkness. But it was geographically too close to ignore the rise of science in Italy. So, when Italians finished drawing the map of the universe (the solar system), Portugal and Spain discovered the map of the planet (oceans and continents) followed by the Dutch, French and British which used firepower (guns) to establish favorable global commercial empires. The benefit of this system quickly served the interest of two giants that would dominate the 20 th Century, namely: Germany and the United States. At about the time the United States and Germany embarked on Industrial Revolutions, Emperor Tewodros united Ethiopia in the Bismarkian blood and iron fashion. Once done with internal problem, Tewodros begun to gain interest in the outside world. Tewodros realized he was technologically lagging far behind Europe. He was not the only non Western Emperor who realized this though. The Japanese Emperor also noticed this gap. But each choose different routes to catching up. Tewodros pleaded with Europe to bring new technology to Ethiopia whereas the Japanese Emperor sent his people to learn European technology. The result is clear. A decade or so after Yohannes came to power; the Berlin Conference was convenedmaking Europe s colonization over all-africa explicit. This development exacerbated his death and severely threatened Menilik and Haile Selassie. Until the fall of Europe in Second World War, Ethiopian foreign policy was anchored in saving the country from external aggression.

4 Then the Cold War (the third world war-in Africa s eyes) set African countries against each other. Ethiopia s neighbors (near and far) tried to undermine it territorial integrity. All of the above domestic and international circumstances made it nearly impossible for Ethiopia to decentralize diplomacy. Since EPRDF took power, however, the foundation of decentralization has been laid. The federal system has allowed a productive division of labor between federal and regional governments. In the realm of crime prevention, for instance, the federal police fills those gaps which are too big for regional police (militia) and too small for army. Unlike its predecessors, the EPRDF government has shifted the satellite of diplomacy from obsessive self preservation to the sphere of economic cooperation. The post 1990s revolution in communication technology has boosted the economic opportunities available for Ethiopia. In light of reaping the benefits out there, it is important to revisit the current state of diplomacy which happens to be monopolized by the federal government. It is necessary to evaluate whether the handful of embassies and consulate offices could identify foreign investors and markets suitable for each region, leave alone contact and facilitate their work. Normally, when many think of foreign markets, they go out of Africa and think about the Whites, Arabs, the Indians and the Chinese. But Africa is a major market that Ethiopian producers should aim at satisfying. To be sure, regions are not expected to act as sovereign and define national interest or security. However, they can cater their economic interests while abiding by the federal foreign policy strategy. Laudably, Ethiopia s regional governments are forging commercial deals with their adjacent neighboring countries. This trend should be formalized, expanded and consolidated. Regions could do this by establishing paradiplomacy departments- that are economically

5 ambitious. Paradiplomacy could facilitate in the flourishing of new commercial hubs other than Addis, Adama, Hawassa and Dire Dawa. In advanced countries, as is well known, political/diplomatic capital cities are not necessarily economic capitals. In North America, all states in US and Canada (especially New York and Quebec) have strong paradiplomatic ties. The same is true in Asia with regions like Hong Kong, Macau, Shanghai and Mumbai. Paradiplomacy can also be region to region. This is most visible among Europeans where the Rhone-Alpes Region (France-Lyon), the Lombardy region (Italy-Milan), Catalonia region (Spain-Barcelona) and the Baden-Wurttemberg region (Germany-Stutgart) have a paradiplomatic ties. Paradiplomacy can be reaped from the structural system of representation (i.e., Federalism). But structural representation ensures representation indirectly. It allows the people to be heard through their representatives. In Ethiopia, public information is collected by launching a census. But census is neither political nor cheap. Democracies gauge public opinion via sample survey technique. Based on a handful of randomly selected sample, it is possible to make inference about the overall condition of the overall population. This method is so cheap that, today, we have countless organizations measuring multifaceted social thermometer on election results, domestic policies, other countries, consumer preference, etc. Today organizations like Gallup, Harris, which pioneered in the 1930s this technique have become multinational organizations. A valid and reliable public opinion survey allows a government an opportunity to look itself in the mirror and make the necessary feedback before it is too late. With some degree of certainty, political parties could really tell if they will be reelected before the ballots are turned.

6 The legislative and executive branches of the governments at both levels could compare notes on whether the people approve their job. Today, the Ethiopian government solicits public opinion from meetings. This is a flawed channel of communication. It doesn t give everyone an equal chance to express their opinion. Besides, there is a chance that the people who attend the meeting are likely to come from one cluster- like: party members, supporters and dependents (those who need to come). All in all, the structural and behavioral mechanisms of representative democracy should be fully exploited. Paradiplomacy would fill the gap overlooked by the foreign affairs department and give regions the opportunity to tap existing opportunities abroad. Polling organizations (private or public) could also strengthen representative democracy and facilitate economic development by building a direct channel of communication between government (and businesses) with the people (and consumers).