Comparing the Two Koreas plus Southeast Asia. April 7, 2015

Transcription

1 Comparing the Two Koreas plus Southeast Asia April 7, 2015

2 Review Why did Bangladesh split from Pakistan? Is religion a factor in civil strife in Sri Lanka? Which country in South Asia had NOT had a woman serving as the head of the government? Who divided Korea in 1945? Who was Park Chung Hee? Were Park s 18 years in power good or bad for South Korea?

3 Bloody Path to Democracy In 1972, after two free presidential elections, Park creates Koreanized democracy which eliminated elections and made him president for life. Those who opposed him were jailed, tortured, and even, in a few cases, killed Park is assassinated by the head of his own secret police (Korean Central Intelligence Agency) General Chun Doo Hwan seizes control of the government in a coup in two parts. First, he attacks his own army headquarters. Then, on May 18, 1980 Chun launches an attack on the city of Gwangju (Kwangju). At least 1,000 are killed. Chun then becomes president.

4 15 years later-justice at last Former Presidents Chun Doo Hwan,and Roh Taewoo were convicted of treason and corruption in 1995 and were sent to jail. They were pardoned in 1997 by Kim Dae Jung, the man they had tried to kill in 1980.

5 Democracy achieved Popular demonstrations in Seoul in 1987 forced the government to allow elections for president. Chun s comrade-in-arms Roh Tae-woo won Kim Young Sam, a former pro-democracy leader, joins Chun s party, won the presidency, and then arrested Chun Kim Dae Jung, a man both Park and Chun had tried to kill, was elected president. Since then the left won one more election, then the right won the next two. Korea has had two peaceful transfers of power and is now a democracy, though the current president is Park Chung Hee s daughter. How did this happen? Land reform and economic development eroded the influence of the landed elite and created a prosperous middle class, providing a foundation for democracy. Developmental dictatorship dug its own grave.

6 Authoritarianism and economic growth Is authoritarianism necessary for rapid economic development? Some say yes, because that is the only way capital can be concentrated in areas where it is most needed. Others say no, since authoritarian rulers will not be told when they have made mistakes. One thing is clear: authoritarianism may work in early economic development, but it becomes dysfunctional when the economy grows too complex for the government to manage.

7 The rise in religious affiliation ,000 out of million 3% million out of 23.5 million 4% million out of 28.2 mil. 12% million out of 41 mil. 42% Achieving a majority religious population million out of 44.5 mil. 50.7% 2004 Gallup Poll 53.5% million out of 47 million 53.1% In 2005, 22% of Koreans were Buddhists, 19% were Protestants, and 10% were Catholics. Christians led the democratization movement, partially because they believed they owed allegiance to a higher power than a secular government, and because they had support from Christians in North America

8 The other Korea The Democratic People s Republic of Korea: political stability--the Kim family (Kim Il Sung, Kim Jung Il, and now Kim Jungun) have ruled since No moves toward democracy at all. The ruling party is the Workers Party. economic problems--strong recovery from the war into the early 1970s (thanks partially to hydroelectric plants built by the Japanese), but since then the problems of a strictly controlled economy and a reliance on import substitution (because of the ideology of Juch e--self-reliance) has stalled the economy. In the later 1990s, maybe as many as 2 million people died from starvation or malnutrition. Yet the same family is still in power. To stay in power, Kim Jung-un had his uncle Jang Song-taek killed in late The government has lost some control over the economy and over information but there are no signs that the government is in any danger of collapsing or even undergoing significant change.

9 The Rituals of North Korea The official ideology of North Korea is Juche (selfreliance) within a military-first policy. The Kims are treated almost as gods. Throughout North Korea there are signs reading The Great Leader Kim Il Sung will be with us forever. Though he died in 1994, he is still the president of the country. Kim Jong Il, who died in 2011, is still the general secretary of the Workers Party. All homes have photos of them on their walls.

10 North Korean Music For a look at a North Korean music video, in which you can see behind the band a video showing, first, the current leader Kim Jong-un, and then a missile flying across the Pacific Ocean to destroy the US (which puts the audience into a frenzy of joy), go to: The video is called with one blow (though Youtube insists on calling it without a break.

11 Comparing North and South Korea South Korea is now democratic. North Korea has a totalitarian government. South Korea has an economic environment that encourages competition and engagement with the rest of the world. North Korea has a state-controlled economy and aims to be self-sufficient. South Korea has a per capita GNP ($33,800) 18 times larger than that of North Korea ($1,800). North Korea has atomic bombs. South Korea doesn t.

12 North and South Korea compared To see the difference between North Korea and South Korea, when viewed from space, go to article /nasa-satellite-images-north-koreasecretive-space.html

13 The economies of the ROK and the DPRK South Korea (ROK) Export-oriented economy 13th largest economy in the world (just behind Canada) but ahead of Canada when the GDP numbers are adjusted for purchasing power parity. $33,800 per capita GDP between the EU and Israel. North Korea (DPRK) import-substitution economy $1,800 per capita GDP ahead of Burma, behind Bangladesh.

14 Colonialism Unravels (p.172) Joining Thailand as independent countries The Philippines 1948 Burma 1949 Indonesia (required a war) 1954 Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos (required a war) 1957 Malaysia 1965 Singapore (separates from Malaysia) 2002 East Timor [Timor Leste] (required a war)

15 Fault-lines in Southeast Asia military vrs. civilian rule: Myanmar has been under military rule most of the time. Thailand and Indonesia have also experienced long periods of military rule ethno-religious tension: Chinese and non-chinese: Indonesia, Malaysia. and Vietnam sites of greatest tension (p. 171) Muslim-Christian: the Philippines (p. 180), East Timor when it was controlled by Indonesia (p. 176) Muslim-Buddhist: Thailand (p.182), Myanmar Lowlander highlander: Myanmar, Vietnam

16 Political Development On a scale of more democratic to less democratic: the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and East Timor (off-and-on again democracy). Malaysia, Singapore, Cambodia (procedural democracy) Myanmar: just starting to democratize Vietnam, Laos: Communist Party-authoritarian. Brunei: monarchy (sultanate) What is procedural democracy? Elections without any real chance of a peaceful transfer of power.

17 Barrington Moore and Southeast Asia Barrington Moore doesn t discuss Southeast Asia. If we try to apply his theory there, we find: The Barrington Moore thesis may help explain Vietnam, but not the rest of Southeast Asia. Ethnic diversity and colonial rule complicate the picture in SE Asia. In Vietnam landlords fled to the south in the 1940s and Without a strong merchant class in the north, Communism became firmly established. In the South a right-wing authoritarianism took root. Growth of a merchant class may help explain later democratization in Indonesia and Thailand, but not what is going on in Myanmar now. Why hasn t Singapore democratized?

18 Economic Development Developed: Singapore, Brunei Developing: Malaysia, Thailand, East Timor, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam A long way to go: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar Do Singapore and the Philippines contradict the assumption that there is a connection between strong landlords and lack of democracy?

19 Comparative Economies Estimated per capita GDP (by purchasing power) in 2013 in US dollars Singapore $62,400 Brunei $54,800 Timor Leste $21,400 Malaysia $17,500 Thailand $9,900 Indonesia $5,200 Philippines $4,700 Vietnam $4,000 Laos $3,100 Cambodia $2,600 Burma (Myanmar) $1,700