Southeast Asia: Violence, Economic Growth, and Democratization. April 9, 2015

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Cathleen Bishop
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1 Southeast Asia: Violence, Economic Growth, and Democratization April 9, 2015

2 Review Is the Democratic People s Republic of Korea really a republic? Why has the economy of the DPRK fallen so far behind the economy of South Korea? Which Southeast Asian country was the first to gain its independence after World War II? Which countries in Southeast Asia can be called functioning democracies?

3 Economic Development Developed: Singapore, Brunei (in terms of GDP) Developing: Malaysia, Thailand, East Timor, Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam A long way to go: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar Do Singapore and the Philippines contradict the assumption that there is a connection between strong landlords and lack of democracy?

4 Comparative Economies Estimated per capita GDP (by purchasing power) in 2013 in US dollars Singapore $62,400 Brunei $54,800 Timor Leste $21,400 Malaysia $17,500 Thailand $9,900 Indonesia $5,200 Philippines $4,700 Vietnam $4,000 Laos $3,100 Cambodia $2,600 Burma (Myanmar) $1,700

5 Major Violence in SE Asia War in Vietnam (pp ) 1965 Massacre in Indonesia (p. 173) Killing fields in Cambodia (p. 194) plus on-going violence in Thailand, the Philippines, Timor-Leste, and Burma/Myanmar

6 Dictatorships and Democracies Indonesia: Sukarno (1945 [1957]-1965) and Suharto ( ) Philippines: Marcos Thailand has seen alternating military (dictatorial) and civilian (democratic) governments. Myanmar (Burma) has been under a military dictatorship since Singapore and Malaysia have had procedural democracy. There have been no peaceful transfers of power. Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia have never been democratic.

7 The Philippines (pp.163-4, ) Crony Capitalism in an oligarchic society. Marcos imposed strong-handed rule on the Philippines from 1972 to Was overthrown by People Power. US colonial rule did not promote industrialization, and also enhanced landlord power, but taught respect for procedural democracy. There have now been several peaceful transfers of power.

8 A look at the Marcos years Order 1081 from the musical Here Lies love.

9 Thailand (pp , ) Constitutional monarchy established by military coup in There have been 11 more coups since then King found shot dead in his bed. Current king ascends the throne In 1976 the military, joined by mobs engaged by reports of criticism of the king, attacked students on university campuses in Bangkok. Splits within the military created space for civilian governments at time. However,the military has regained power. The most recent coup was May, After a 2006 coup, there was an election, in 2007, which civilians won. Thailand appeared to be a functioning democracy. However, the urban middle class is fought against democracy, believing it leads to corruption. After Thaksin and his sister won free elections, the military seized power to end their control of the government.

10 Indonesia (pp , ) Sukarno ruled with support of Communist Party. Declared guided democracy An attempted left-wing coup led to an anti-communist bloodbath. At least 500,000 killed, many of them Chinese Indonesians. (p. 163) Suharto s right-wing dictatorship stimulates economic growth. (switch from import-substitution to exportoriented economic politics) 1998-present. Stumbling steps toward democracy. Timor Leste breaks away. Indonesia now has had peaceful transfers of power.

11 Malaysia (pp , ) Communist (primarily Chinese) rebellion slowed progress toward independence Major issue has been the attempts by Malays to ensure their numerical superiority is reflected in political and economic superiority. Ruling party is a coalition of Malay, Chinese, and Indian parties. Malays dominate. The ruling party has never lost a national election but their share of the vote has been dropping recently. However, Malaysia has yet to experience a peaceful transfer of power. The ruling party won a close election in 2013.

12 Singapore (pp ) Communal tensions with Malays led to Singapore separating from Malaysia in Under leadership of Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore became a trading and financial centre, making it very wealthy There are elections, but the ruling party always wins, and the opposition never wins more than a few seats. Opposition politicians are sometimes charged in civil suits with insulting the leaders of the government. There is no real freedom of speech or freedom of the press in Singapore. Don t confuse a free market with democracy. The first is economic. The second is political. Singapore has a free market. It doesn t have free politics.

13 Myanmar (Burma) (pp ) Aung San, the man who led Burma to independence, was killed shortly before Burma became independent. In 1962 the Burmese military seized control and established Burmese socialism. They killed hundreds whenever prodemocracy protests erupted. Democracy movement led by Aung San s daughter, Suu Kyi. She won annulled 1990 election. Was allowed to enter parliament in Poverty has slowed political progress. The military is slowly stepping aside, so Myanmar may be truly democratic before too long. Buddhists have begun killing Muslims in the west.

14 religion, ethnicity and national identity Indonesia: everyone is required to believe in one God. Most are Muslims (Buddhists and Hindus are treated as believing in one God.) Malaysia: Malays are supposed to be Muslims Thailand: to be a real Thai, you should be Buddhist. Burmese also define themselves as Buddhists. That causes problems for religious minorities. Chinese maintain a separate cultural identity in some Southeast Asian countries by frequenting Chinese temples.

15 Vietnam (pp , ) Vietnam, which had been divided into three separate colonies under the French, resisted the return of the French in War with the French ended in 1954 with the division of Vietnam into a Communist north and an anti-communist (but not democratic) south. With Ho Chi Minh, a Communist nationalist, as the leader in the North, a guerrilla war to unite north and south begins in the late 1950s. The US intervenes to defend the government of the south. The Americans admit defeat in Vietnam is united under a Communist government in Vietnam began imitating China s economic reforms in It now, like China, combines a mixed economy (some capitalism, some state control) with authoritarian rule in the political arena.

16 Cambodia s tragedy (160-62, ) Freed from French control in the 1950s, Cambodia tried to remain neutral in the battle between north and south Vietnam. The US supported General Lon Nol s overthrow of the neutral government of Sihanouk in That, plus US military attacks on Cambodia, allowed the Khmer Rouge to seize the nationalist banner. They took over Cambodia in 1975 and embarked on a purification of the population that cost over 1.5 million dead. Vietnam invaded in 1979 and forced the Khmer Rouge from power. Cambodia s prime minister is a former Khmer Rouge who first gained power with Vietnamese help and has stayed in power ever since, even though there have been elections.

17 Don t forget Laos (pp.160, ) A small country caught up in the battle for Indochina. The war in Vietnam spilled over into Laotian territory. When Vietnam and Cambodia went Communist, so did Laos (the Communist forces were led by a Communist prince!) Laos is now ruled by the Lao People s Revolutionary Party, with no other political parties permitted. There is a mixed economy and an authoritarian political system.

18 Brunei (p. 191) An often overlooked country that is relatively rich (because of oil). Less than 425,000 people live in Brunei. Still an absolute monarchy (sultanate) 11-20% of the population of Brunei are of Chinese background.

19 Timor-Leste (p. 176, 204) Was a Portuguese colony until 1975, when it was known as East Timor. When the Portuguese left, the Indonesian army moved in, denying independence. After many years of bloody fighting, in 1999 the Timorese were allowed, with UN support, to vote for independence. In 2002 they won international recognition as an independent country. They have had transfers of power. (The presidency has changed, though the more powerful post of prime minister had remained under the control of the same party.) However, the military is still not totally united under civilian control, and there are still armed groups unhappy with the government. It is democratic, but democracy is quite fragile there.

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