SCENARIO SUMMARY TABLE (Recently Displaced Populations)

Transcription

1 STEP 1 SET PARAMETERS A Identify the specific lcatin f fcus and prvide the lcatin s ppulatin. Suth Sudan refugees settlement areas in Rhin Camp, Adjumani, Lbule, Bidibidi, Palrinya, Pagirinya, Palabek and Imvepi C Chse scenari type 1 Mst likely scenari B The scenari shuld fcus n IDP's wh are recently displaced. 2 Prvide the ppulatin estimate fr this grup and calculate what prprtin f the lcatin ppulatin this represents. Apprximately 1,034,106 refugees and asylum seekers frm Suth Sudan have entered Uganda as f 30 th September 2017 D Define scenari duratin and timing Current: Octber 2017 ML1: Octber 2017 t January 2018 ML2: February 2018 t May 2018 STEP 2 DESCRIBE AND CLASSIFY CURRENT FOOD SECURITY A Summarize yur evidence f current fd security cnditins (e.g., seasnal prgress, recent harvests, fd prices, humanitarian assistance, etc) (Current means beginning f the first mnth f the scenari perid) Descriptin f ppulatin f cncern (R2, UNHCR): Uganda currently hsts ver 1,381,207refugees and asylum-seekers in ttal as f 30 September, Of these, 75 percent are frm Suth Sudan while thers riginate frm Demcratic Republic f Cng, Burundi, Smalia amng thers. 51 percent f all Suth Sudan refugees are in Uganda. Refugees are lcated in 30 refugee settlements, fund in 12 refugee hsting districts f the cuntry, thugh the majrity f Suth Sudanese refugees are residing in settlements in the nrthwest. As f 19th September 2017, 955,950 Suth Sudanese refugees are currently residing in settlements spread in Arua, Yumbe, My, Lamw and Adjumani districts. The majrity f the Suth Sudanese refugees 802,847 have arrived since July ,429 have arrived in 2017, as f September 27th. 61% f ppulatin are children under 18 years while 82 percent f the ppulatin are wmen and children under 18 years and 3 percent f the ppulatin are elderly. 1 The default ptin fr FEWS NET scenari building is a mst-likely scenari. In specific cases, additinal scenaris can be develped. 2 Recently displaced refers t husehlds wh have nt yet develped new permanent r semi-permanent livelihds at their current lcatin. If displaced husehlds have been displaced fr lnger perids f time and have develped new permanent r semi-permanent livelihds, the nrmal SST can be used.

2 Daily influx rate between 10 th and 18 th September averaged at 570 new arrivals per day, dwn frm 2,000 a day early A definitin f ld caselad and new caselad has been assigned t Suth Sudanese refugees (by WFP); the level f assistance planned differs by grup (see sectin Humanitarian Assistance) Old caselad = thse wh arrived in Uganda prir t July 2015 (excludes vulnerable husehlds wh arrived befre July 2015) New caselad = thse wh arrived in Uganda after July 2016 Lcatin f ppulatin f cncern (R2, UNHCR): District Ppulatin f District Camp Date camp established Ppulatin f camp (as f Sept 30) Refugees as % f district ppulatin Ppulatin descriptin Arua 840,900 Rhin Early 1960s, but 103,678 27% New and ld caselad recently expanded Imvepi Feb ,469 Lamw 138,400 Palabek Apr-17 35,535 26% New caselad, and mst arrived after July 2016 Adjumani 229,500 Adjumani Cmpsed f 18 settlements -Early 1990s, prbably 1991, repened in , % New and ld caselad, but majrity new and arrived after July 2016 Kbk 229,200 Lbule 2013 Camp is managed under Rhin, separate ppulatin nt available New caselad, and mst arrived after July 2016 My 147,600 Palrinya Dec , % New caselad, and mst arrived after July 2016 Yumbe 562,600 Bidibidi Aug ,104 51% New caselad, and mst arrived after July 2016 Typical husehld size ranges frm 6 t 10 with exceptins where up t 15 members belng t a husehld. Much f the 30x30 size plt in such a case is utilized fr cnstructin f huses and a smaller area remaining is used fr planting vegetables mainly. Despite initiatives by gvernment thrugh OPM and aid agencies t facilitate refugees access t land fr cultivatin, sme refugee husehlds are nt engaged in any by livelihd grups that are supprted with inputs and plughing f land in rder t earn mre. Danish Church Aid (DCA) and Wrld Lutheran Fundatin (LWF) are the key NGO actrs implementing livelihd prgrams and activities in the refugee settlements. Refugees receive planting materials (sweet ptat vines, cassava cuttings) and seeds (maize, vegetable seeds) as well as cash transfers t the elderly and cash fr wrk t the yuth in sme f the settlements. Skilled yuths are able t start-up businesses, a few literate nes are emplyed by the humanitarian agencies perating in the settlements Humanitarian assistance (WFP, R2; Wrld Visin, R2):

3 WFP prvides in-kind assistance (r cash-vucher) equivalent t refugees in Uganda Since August 2016, WFP planned fr refugees amng the new caselad t receive a full ratin and refugees amng the ld caselad t receive a half ratin (Table belw shws current assistance levels as f 20 September 2017) Cmpnents EV1 (100%) Kgs NEW CASE (100%) Kgs Old case Lad (50%)Kgs Srghum/ Maize grain Maize meal 11.7 Beans Beans(thse wh get maize meal) 2.1 CSB Veg. Oil Salt Surce WFP/Wrld Visin The decisin t cut ratins t ½ ratins amng the ld caselad was made in August 2016 this affected refugees wh arrived befre July 2015; WFP was experiencing funding shrtfalls amidst the influx f refugees. In September, sme in the ld caselad refugee husehlds in sme settlements received the equivalence f their half ratin f cereals in cash, and the remaining items f their half ratin in-kind. This was due t WFP awaiting a shipment f cereals frm Zambia. The refugees in the new caselad received their full ratins in-kind. It was a temprary measure t fill the gap due t the pipeline fr September Despite the cntinued supprt frm traditinal and new dnrs, and new cntributins received in recent mnths, the peratin t prvide fd assistance requires 113 millin USD between Octber t March 2018, with a f 43 millin USD. Current fd ratins are likely and funded t the end f December.t meet the increasing refugee needs New arrivals in Omug settlement in Rhin Camp and ther settlements supprted with nn-fd items like sanitary kits, shelter cnstructin kits and husehld supplies like kitchen sets, sap, jerrycans, msquit nets, cnstructin rpes, hes, sickles, cnstructin nails and ples, blankets, slar lamps, plastic basins and sheets Fr the arriving refugees, High Energy Biscuits are distributed at brder pints in Kbk, Yumbe and My districts by Wrld Visin. Livelihds supprt by Wrld Visin t farmers in frm f cassava cuttings, maize, sesame and grundnuts seeds in September, thugh the number f beneficiaries receiving this assistance is unknwn. As evident thrugh rapid field visits, mst refugees have access t clean drinking water, fd preparatin, and sanitatin and hygiene prmtin, prvided by UNICEF, Wrld Visin, and ther lcal NGOs. Access apprximately litres f water per day per persn matching the UNHCR emergency standard f 15 l/p/d Rainfall perfrmance and crp perfrmance Secnd seasn rainfall perfrmance t-date in mst f the settlements has been average t abve average favuring crp develpment Crps were at varius stages f develpment, frm germinating fr thse that were recently planted, 10 t 30cm fr thse that were being weeded and flwering stage fr early planted Srghum, Maize and Simsim crps in the hst cmmunities and settlement areas. Vegetables were leafy and green, planting was nging as well. Agriculture and livelihd activities

4 Nte: The FSNA December 2016 reprt (R1 due t date) with infrmatin cllected in December 2016 and is still the mst cmprehensive dcumented data available n fd security cnditins amng Suth Sudanese refugees. Hwever, FEWS NET s rapid assessment in September 2017 fund that fd the current situatin remains very similar t that reprted in December The refugees practice subsistence agriculture which is rainfall dependent and prne t the impacts f spradic and unreliable rains which make crp farming risky. Use f drught resistant varieties, use f water efficient irrigatin systems and cnservatin agriculture are absent Old refugee caselads (prir t July 2015) were allcated 50x50M plts. All new refugees receive 30x30M plts, in Bidi-bidi settlement sme refugees were recently (in July) allcated additinal 50x50M plts t expand their farming activities, nt many have benefited, als refugees are encuraged t frm grups by themselves r hst ppulatin t access bigger land area fr cmmunal farming and t be able t access input supprt frm sme humanitarian agencies. Sme husehlds lack f inputs, tls and implements fr tilling the land, while ther land/sils where the plts are allcated are nt arable. Sils in Imvepi, Pagirinya and parts f Bidibidi are rcky while sils in parts f Rhin camp near the river Nile lked prne t water ldging. Sme refugees did nt harvest any maize in the first seasn because it was destryed by the Fall Army Wrms. Typically refugee husehlds that plant crps (maize r Srghum) n their 30x30 plts can harvest between 20 t 50Kgs f cereals depending n the seasn and n quality f sil n the plt. This level f prductin was crrbrated thrugh interviews with refugees during FEWS NET s rapid assessment in September. Prductin levels varied acrss husehlds, thugh. Fd assistance, agricultural labr, and crp prductin/sales are listed as key surces f fd and incme. The sale f fd assistance is als referenced. Many husehlds have ther surces f fd and incme, ther than thse listed belw, but it is typically the secnd r third mst imprtant surce. An estimated 50 percent f refugees are participating in labr pprtunities t earn additinal incme, accrding t recent reprts. The Inter-Agency (UNHCR and WrldVisisin) Livelihd Assessment in Imvepi and Rhin camp indicated that refugees participate in tw days f emplyment a week, earning n average f UGX 7,317 per day, r arund 60,000 per mnth. Hwever, this infrmatin may be specific t these camps, where sme refugees have been settled lnger and have greater access t established incme-earning pprtunities. FEWS NET, therefre, assumes that amng all camps it is mre likely that arund 50 percent f all refugees are participating in an incme-earning activity and they are earning near 20,000 UGX a mnth, in line with the rapid HEA reprt. This is bradly crrbrated by FEWS NET s field assessment. Sme refugee husehlds that plant vegetables like Okra, Onins, Tmates, Pumpkins are able t sale them n the radsides r in the markets within r near the settlements. Other crps cultivated include cassava, maize, grundnuts, srghum, sesame, millet, maize, grundnuts, and srghum. Fd prices depend n level f demand and fd availability within refugee husehlds. Prices sht up by between 30 t 50 percent whenever ratins are delayed but then nrmalize r even reduce when ratins are distributed. Cases f traders setting up grain cllectin pints within the settlements were bserved. Sme husehlds trade the ratins fr cash and utilize the cash t purchase fd f their chice and preference. All settlements have daily markets accessible t husehlds. Refugees als walk 5 t 10 kms t access markets that are farther frm the settlements, primarily due t cheaper prices in these markets. A survey f the markets visited shwed that they are well supplied with bth fd and nn-fd items. Trade is primarily cash based, with 68% f the ppulatin using cash t purchase items and 31% f the ppulatin engaging in barter trade. (Inter- Agency Livelihd Assessment Targeting Refugees and Hst Cmmunities in IMVEPI and Rhin Camp Settlements reprt by UNHCR and Wrld Visin.) Surces f incme and fd, FSNA December 2016 data Mst imprtant Secnd mst imprtant Third mst imprtant Fd crp prductin/sales 23.3% 8.4% 2.3% Cash crp prductin/sale 1.2%.5%.3% Sale f animals r animal prducts.7% 1.2%.4%

5 Livestck prductin.5%.8%.3% Agricultural wage labr 14.6% 10.6% 3.5% Nn-agricultural wage labr 3.2% 3.5% 1.3% Small business/self-emplyed 7.0% 5.5% 2.3% Petty trade 2.5% 3.3% 3.1% Pensin, allwances.8%.6%.1% Salary/wages 2.7% 1.0%.5% Gifts/begging 1.2% 2.5% 3.5% Brrwing.8% 2.7% 7.1% Fd assistance 30.7% 16.7% 10.6% Skilled Trade 1.2% 1.1%.7% Sale f fd assistance 5.6% 13.1% 3.6% Gvernment allwance.3%.7%.1% Remittances 1.8% 2.9% 3.7% Settlement Relied n less preferred, less expensive fd Brrwed fd r relied n help frm friends r relatives Reduced the number f meals eaten per day Reduced prtin size f meals Reductin in the quantities cnsumed by adults/mthers fr yung children Rhin Camp 65.8% 55.3% 64.6% 71.7% 56.5% Adjumani 83.3% 51.4% 68.6% 68.2% 56.0% Lbule 81.5% 56.6% 69.8% 73.6% 44.4% Bidibidi 49.3% 41.6% 49.6% 50.7% 47.6% Settlement Prprtin f husehlds reprting using a stress cping mechanism (1-4) Prprtin f husehlds reprting using a crisis cping mechanism (5-7) Prprtin f husehlds reprting using an emergency cping mechanism (8-10) Rhin Camp 26.2% 38% 8%

6 Adjumani 26.6% 32.9% 5.8% Lbule 32.6% 34.1% 1.5% Sme f the cping mechanisms the refugees f Imvepi and Rhin camp use when there is a shrtage f fd taken frm the Inter-Agency Livelihd Assessment Targeting Refugees and Hst Cmmunities in Imvepi and Rhin camp, May percent reduce the quantity f fd cnsumed while 35 percent skip meal in a day. Expected access t fd and incme by camp, as f Octber 2017 (Key infrmant infrmatin frm September/Octber 2017, R1; Gvernment f Uganda OPM, R2; FSNA December 2016, R2): Imvepi (est. Feb. 2017) Received 900 square meters f land; refugees wh arrived mre than 6 mnths ag likely t cultivate, but the land is rcky and nt very suitable fr cultivatin Sme inputs and tls prvided by humanitarian agencies Sale f firewd and charcal (retail) mstly amng the camp b/c there is lw restricted access t areas where it can be cllected amng hst cmmunity land area There is sme livestck, but hldings are lw less than 2 amng mst HH (type nt specified in FSNA) Labr pprtunities in nearby twn and hst cmmunities Rhin (est. 1970s, recently expanded ) Sme areas are fertile, thers are nt; Several refugees engaged in planting fr secnd seasn Sme inputs and tls prvided by humanitarian agencies Few labr pprtunities available because the camp is islated frm ther twns There is sme livestck, but hldings are lw less than 2 amng mst HH (type nt specified in FSNA) Fr Ivempi and Rhin camp, accrding t the reprt by UNHCR and WrldVisin: The majrity f the refugees rely n fd assistance fr their livelihd. In ttal, 58% are nt participating in any ecnmic activity while 24% are engaged in farming activities by renting ut land frm the hst cmmunities. The majrity f refugees (54%) in Imvepi and Rhin Settlements have plt size f between 20 and 30 square meters used fr bth agricultural prductin and huse cnstructin

7 58 percent f refugees in Imvepi and Rhin camp are nt engaged in any frm f ecnmic activity but they rely entirely n fd assistance fr survival. Only 24 percent f refugees supplement fd assistance prvided with wn crp prductin n allcated plts. Sme refugees have rented land frm the hst cmmunities t d further farming activities. Belw is livelihd strategies pursued by refugees in Imvepi and Rhin camp The highest prprtin f expenditure f husehld incme is n fd purchase, accunting fr ver 60 percent. Abut 88 percent f the refugees in Ivempi and Rhin camp reprted spending cash f between 0 t 100,000 UGX per week n fd Bidibidi (est. Aug. 2016) and Palrinya (est. Dec. 2016) Received 900 square metres f land - many cultivated; sil in varius areas in the camps are rcky and unsuitable fr cultivatin. Sme refugees rganized int grups f 25 members and were allcated 5 acres pieces f land within hst cmmunities fllwing sensitizatins and dialgue brkered by OPM and NGOs implementing livelihd prgrams in the settlements. Sme humanitarian agencies including Danish Church Aid, Danish Refugee Cuncil, Lutheran Wrld Federatin (LWF) distributed sme inputs, planting materials and tls There is sme livestck, but hldings are lw less than 2 amng mst HH (type nt specified in FSNA) Labr pprtunities in nearby twn and hst cmmunities

8 Lbule (est. 2013) Received 900 square meters f land; cultivatin dne by refugees Sme inputs and tls prvided by humanitarian agencies Pssibly sale f firewd and charcal mstly amng the camp b/c there is limited access t areas where it can be gathered frm. There is sme livestck, but hldings are lw less than 2 amng mst HH (type nt specified in FSNA) Adjumani (18 settlements) (Oldest established in early 1990s, repened in 2013 while new nes pened in August ) Thse wh arrived prir t July 2016 received larger plt sizes arund 3,500 square meters; thse wh arrived after received arund 900 square meters Sme inputs and tls prvided by humanitarian agencies Mst land is arable An increasing number f refugees invlved in cultivatin Accrding t the gvernment f Uganda Refugee settlement assessment in 2015 ld caselads cultivated mainly maize, srghum, beans, and sme simsim and grundnuts. Labr pprtunities in nearby twn and hst cmmunities Sme livestck wned either thrugh distributins f say chicken r thse that arrived with a few gats. The abve rapid HEA infrmatin indicates husehlds are earning arund 100,000 UGX between Octber and January, and the majrity f incme is spent n nn-staple fd and nn-fd items. B Summarize yur evidence f current husehld fd cnsumptin and the status Fd cnsumptin: Outcme data, FSNA, December 2016, R1 due t date Fd cnsumptin scre indicative f Crisis (IPC Phase 3) utcmes in mst areas Livelihds Change 3 : FSNA data frm December 2016 reprts that mst refugees are currently invlved in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) cping strategies including brrwing mney, spending savings, selling husehld gds r animals, and increasing debt, sme are invlved in Crisis (ICP Phase 3) cping strategies, 3 This shuld describe the different strategies husehlds use t respnd t current r expected fd cnsumptin deficits this may include expansin f current livelihds strategies (e.g. increasing livestck sales) r the implementatin f additinal, new strategies (e.g. sale f agricultural tls). Livelihds change, hwever, is nt: cnsumptin-based strategies (e.g. reducing number f meals r prtin size, shifting t less preferred fds these fall under Fd Cnsumptin); nr is it the lss f livelihds r extreme lss f assets due t a shck; nr is it a shift in livelihds fr reasns ther than current r expected fd cnsumptin gaps.

9 f husehld livelihds. This culd be direct evidence, like the result f a fd security survey, r inferred evidence, like the utcme f livelihdsbased analysis. C Based n yur respnse t 2A and 2B classify the current fd insecurity f the chsen husehld grup (1B) using the IPC 2.0 Husehld Scale. Mst had a lw t mderate HDDS, likely indicative f high reliance n fd assistance where relatively fewer fd grups N HHS available Refugees in the new caselad received full ratins frm the mnth f their arrival thrugh September It is likely they are cnsuming nearly 2100 kcals r slightly less due t sharing r the sale f humanitarian assistance t buy sme nn-fd needs. Refugees cntinue t access vegetables whse availability is enhanced by the abve average rainfall since August. Mst refugees are likely meeting their minimal fd needs, but are heavily reliant n humanitarian assistance t d s. Refugees in the ld caselad have been receiving half ratins since August This ppulatin, n average, has greater access t fd and incme surces utside f humanitarian assistance, including larger plt sizes and greater capacity t cultivate. Having harvested their first seasn crp that did nt perfrm well due t the dry spells, wn fd stcks are likely depleted and sme refugees in the ld caselad are experiencing fd cnsumptin gaps. Althugh this ppulatin has greater access t alternative fd and incme surces, they are likely still heavily dependent n humanitarian assistance t meet their basic fd needs. HH Grup (1B) Classificatin: Phase 2: Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) including selling prductive assets, reductin f essential nn-fd expenditures, and cnsumptin f fd stck. Few are engaging in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) related cping strategies. Recent field visits by FEWS NET fund that the majrity f husehlds have mst f their fd and nn-fd needs, including thse frm the ld caselad that are receiving a half ratin, but are able t earn incme thrugh ther means t supprt their ther fd needs. Crisis and Emergency levels f cping were nt reprted. D Based n the husehld classificatin Descriptin f available nutritin infrmatin: Owing t the fact that the same ratin size is prvided by the humanitarian agencies similar t last year, fd security and nutritin utcmes are expected

10 (2C), and available nutritin/mrtal ity data, classify the verall area (1A) using the IPC 2.0 Area Scale. t be similar t thse bserved in past assessments: UNHCR and partners cnducted a mass nutritin (MUAC) screening in Bidibidi settlement in September. Data shws that 262 (5.6%) f the 4,683 children screened between the ages 6 t 59 mnths were fund t be acutely malnurished. Of these, 54 (1.2%) were severely malnurished and 208 (4.4%) were mderately malnurished. 652 children were assessed at entry pints f Oraba, Kuluba, Busia and Ocea, and amng these, 20 children were diagnsed with malnutritin f which 13 were fund t be suffering frm Mderate Acute Malnutritin (MAM) and 7 with Severe Acute Malnutritin (SAM). The Glbal Acute Malnutritin (GAM) rate was lw verall at 3.07%. Bth the SAM and MAM rates were als lw at 1.07% and 2% respectively _Sept_2016.pdf Accrding t a screening cnducted by UNHCR in mid-september,.the prxy GAM fr Ivempi amng 149 screened children between 6 and 59 mnths was 3 percent GAM prevalence f the screened children between 6-59 mnths. Trend f GAM, Stunting and Underweight, Refugee Settlements, (R1, fr the previus year) The belw are the results frm December FSNA SMART survey at refugee settlements. Prevalence f acute malnutritin based n weight-fr-height z-scres (and/r Oedema). The results are indicative f Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) utcmes. Higher prevalances f GAM are bserved amng newly established camps with newly-arrived refugees. It is pssible the newly arrived refugees had limited access t fd during the travel t Uganda, which culd cntribute t higher prevalence f GAM.

11 Last year the fd security, health and nutritin indicatrs in refugee settlements were stable cmparable t findings the past three years. Imprvement was bserved in prevalence f GAM fr all settlements except Rhin Camp and Lbule. Since the livelihds f the refugees that enable then t access fd have nt changed significantly, malnutritin levels are likely t be in similar ranges.

12 Descriptin f available mrtality infrmatin (FSNA, December 2016, R1 due t date): N new mrtality data has been prduced. With the daily arrival rate f refugees having declined significantly, the arrival f children that are likely t be malnurished is likely t be lwer than last year. With cntinued nutritin treatment prgrams prvided at settlements, and regular humanitarian assistance, it is likely the prevalence f GAM is lwer amng newly arrived refugees as well as the ld caselads cmpared t last year. Area Classificatin: Phase 2: Stressed In the absence f emergency assistance wuld this classificatin be at least ne phase wrse? Yes, HA has changed phase

13 STEP 3 DEVELOP KEY ASSUMPTIONS 4 A List the key factrs, relevant t fd security, which are expected t behave nrmally during the scenari perid. The Gvernment f Uganda thrugh the Office f the Prime Minister and the United Natins High Cmmissiner fr Refugees (UNHCR) are likely t cntinue expanding and identifying new settlement sites t hst new refugees, fasttrack radwrks, cmplete demarcatin and allcatin f plts, and engage hst cmmunities fr allcatin f cmmunal facilities. The implementatin f the lgistics peratin t transfer refugees frm brder pints t settlement sites and decngestin f temprary receptin facilities is expected t cntinue. It is expected that within the Outlk perid, newly arrived refugees will be transferred t Ivempi, Omug and Palabek settlement areas, as well as any new settlements established during the utlk perid The Octber t December secnd seasn rainfall is frecast t be average tending t abve average. The first March t May 2018 first rainy seasn is frecast t be average. Husehlds are expected t spend apprximately 50 percent f their earned incme n fd, as was reprted in recent interagency reprts. It is expected that ld caselad f refugees in Adjumani, Bidibidi and Rhin camp cultivated plt sizes arund 2,000 square meters fr September/December secnd seasn prductin and will likely cultivate the same plt size fr March first seasn prductin. This is based n partner and Gvernment reprts f the amunt f land distributed and FEWS NET field visits. Given the timely start f rainfall fr the secnd seasn and likelihd that cumulative rainfall is likely t be favurable fr crp prductin, yields are expected t be average and higher than first seasn 2017 Rainfall is frecast t be average during the secnd bimdal seasn, and yields shuld be near average In bth camps, the land prvided t sme refugees is nt fertile and they are nt able t cultivate r yields will be lwer than yields abve. In Imvepi, Omug and Palabek, refugees wh arrived in 2017 and refugees expected t arrive during the utlk perid have received (will receive) plt sizes arund 900 square meters. They are expected t cultivate, n average, arund 750 square meters f land, harvesting rughly kilgrams per seasn. Rainfall is frecast t be average t abve average during the secnd bimdal seasn, and yields shuld be near average Only thse wh arrived and received land by July 2017 are likely t cultivate fr secnd seasn prductin, namely thse wh are mstly in Imvepi, Omug and Palabek. Thse wh arrive and are settled befre December are likely t cultivate fr first seasn Based n (key infrmants, reprts, FEWS bservatins) it is estimated that rughly 60 percent f the new caselad will cultivate fr these seasns. Based n the typical yield fr a plt size f abut 750 square meters and interviews with refuges during FEWS NET s field visit, it is expected this ppulatin will, n average, harvest arund kgs during each seasn. The ld caselad, with larger plt sizes arund 2,500 will cultivate arund kgs 4 Be sure that assumptins are relevant t incme and fd surces fr IDPs. Relevant assumptin may r may nt be tied t the typical livelihds f the IDPs depending n their ability t participate in thse livelihds. There may als be new strategies t cnsider fr IDPs, depending n their situatin.

14 B List the key shcks r anmalies that yu anticipate will ccur during the scenari perid and that will affect fd security. These shuld be events that are relevant t the chsen husehld grup (1B). Fr each event, describe level f severity and expected timing as specifically as pssible. 5 In all camps, the land prvided t sme refugees is nt unifrmly arable t supprt crp prductin either being rcky/stny, affected by water lgging fertile hence expected yields are varying Fr the estimated 60 percent f refugees wh d cultivate, the bulk f their secnd 2017 harvest will be available in Nvember, thugh sme lng-cycle crps will be available in January. Harvests frm the first seasn are expected between May and August 2018, cvering part f the utlk perid. Humanitarian agencies including DanChurchAid, Lutheran Wrld Federatin, United Natins High Cmmissiner fr Refugees (UNHCR), and United Natins Children's Fund (UNICEF) are prviding services including preventive blanket supplementary feeding (BSFP) fr pregnant and lactating wmen (PLW) and children 6-59 mnths ld, therapeutic feeding and supplementary feeding prgrammes, shelter kits, health and WASH prgramming. These prgrams are expected t cntinue prviding services, but given funding cnstraints it is unlikely they will be able t reach all refugees. Refugees in all camp lcatins are expected t have nrmal physical access t markets t purchase fd. At all settlement sites there are markets within/nearby the camps, frm which refugees can purchase fd and nn-fd items. Lcal cereals are available n these markets, and supply is sufficient t supprt purchases made with cash/vucher humanitarian assistance and frm additinal earned incme. Staple fd prices in these regins are currently percent abve average, mainly driven by belw-average prductin last year. Prices in these areas are expected t remain under 1,600 UGX per kilgram f srghum, well belw prices earlier this year but smewhat abve average. It is expected that the mnthly average refugee inflws will be less than 1,000 arrivals per day, cmpared t the levels f near 1,800 refugees per day since the start f 2017 t Mid-August. The influx is expected t vary in part due t the seasns: a lwer daily rate r arrival is expected during the Octber December and April-June rainy seasns when travel/fighting escalatin becmes difficult. Overall, it is estimated that the ttal number f refugees frm Suth Sudan is estimated t reach arund 1.3 millin by May Humanitarian assistance: Humanitarian assistance is currently planned t cntinue prviding half ratins f cereal and full ratins f all ther cmmdities t refugees in the new caselad. Hwever, WFP is facing significant funding shrtfalls and funding is nt guaranteed t prvide the abve planned levels f assistance beynd December. Therefre, the scenari assumes the absence f humanitarian assistance. A number f humanitarian agencies are likely t cntinue prviding livelihds supprt t the refugees infrm f prviding seeds, inputs, grup related activities like supprting land pening and prviding supprt t elderly and vulnerable refugees. 5 Examples f key tpics t be cvered in Step 3 include: Rainfall, temperature, crp prductin, market functining and staple fd prices, cnflict, labr wages, labr demand

15 STEP 4 DESCRIBE IMPACTS ON HH INCOME SOURCES A List the surces f cash incme used during the scenari perid. 6 B Hw imprtant is each incme surce during the first fur mnths f the scenari perid (Octber January 2018)? D Hw imprtant is each incme surce during the secnd fur mnths f the scenari perid (February May 2018)? F Describe the imprtance f each surce fr husehlds. Hw and t what level will each surce cntribute husehld incmes? 1. Sale f staple fd crps Mderate (10-30%) Minr (<10%) ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): Refugees wh were able t plant are likely t harvest abut a mnth f cereal in Nvember/December. Hwever thse refugees wh received less fertile land r land prne t water lgging, are likely t harvest lwer yields. It is unlikely that sme f the refugees in Imvepi, Palabek, and Omug will harvest anything because they arrived much later than necessary t plant. Mainly vegetables will be available t supplement husehlds. Hwever, amng thse wh d harvest sme cereals, they are likely t sell a small prtin in rder t earn incme t purchase sme nn-fd needs and repay sme debts. Data cllected in December 2016 shws that 34% f refugees nted prductin r sale f staple fd crps as ne f their mst imprtant surces f fd r incme. Since this is figure is nt brken dwn t cnsumptin versus sale f crps, it is nt pssible t knw what percentage wuld state incme frm sales f crps is ne f their three mst imprtant incme surces. It is als pssible this number (34%) includes refugees in the ld caselad wh have larger plt sizes r thse wh access land utside the settlements and can prduce mre relatively mre fd. 2. Wage labr (ag) Minr (<10%) Minr (<10%) ML2 (Feb-May): It is likely husehlds are ging t btain sme prductin frm secnd seasn that culd still be available t sale fr thse husehlds that btained sizeable prductin ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): There will be sme pprtunities fr refugees t earn incme thrugh agricultural labr pprtunities in nearby cmmunities and sme limited pprtunities within the settlements. During this perid, harvesting labr is expected t be available starting in Nvember. Accrding t data cllected in December 2016, 28% f refugees reprted agricultural labr as ne f their tp three incme surces. It is expected that during 2017, thugh, the prprtin f refugees wh will be able t access agricultural labr pprtunities will decline. This is due t the cntinued large-scale influx f refugees that is increasing the supply f labr; the number f refugees seeking agricultural labr pprtunities is expected t far exceed the number f labr pprtunities available. ML2 (Feb-May): During this perid, cultivatin labr is expected t be avaiable thugh at limited levels. Fr the same reasns as nted abve, these incme-earning pprtunities are likely t be quite lw cmpared t the labr supply 3. Remittances Minr (<10%) Minr (<10%) In bth perids, based n FEWS NET s rapid assessment and parnter reprts, it is estimated that the average refugee husehld will earn abut 20,000 UGX a mnth ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): Data cllected in December 2016 reprted that apprximately 8 percent f refugees nted remittances as ne f their tp three surces f fd/incme. While remittances may remain a key surce f fd/incme fr a small prprtin, it is likely that the majrity f refugees will nt receive significant assistance thrugh remittances. This is expected t be equally true in ML1 and ML2, as instability and very pr ecnmic 6 This shuld include any humanitarian assistance prvided as cash.

16 4. Petty trade and small businesses 5. Sale f fd assistance Minr (<10%) Minr (<10%) Minr (<10%) Minr (<10%) cnditins persist in Suth Sudan; it is unlikely many Suth Sudanese will be able t send assistance t relatives in Uganda. ML2 (Feb-May): See infrmatin fr ML1. ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): Accrding t data cllected in December 2016, 14.8% f refugees reprted small business as ne f their tp three surces f fd/incme and 8.9% reprted the same fr petty trade. It is expected that a small prprtin f husehlds will cntinue t earn incme frm these surces thrughut the utlk perid, althugh pprtunities may be lwer fr refugees wh arrive thrughut the scenari perid and have yet t establish new livelihds in hst areas. Opprtunities include fd vending, shp keeping, arts and crafts ML2 (Feb-May): This is expected t be equally true in ML1 and ML2 ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): Accrding t data cllected in December 2016, 22.3% f refugees reprted the sale f fd assistance as ne f their tp three surces f incme. It is expected many refugees wh are receiving fd assistance will cntinue t sell a prtin f their assistance t purchase ther nn-fd items. Given the uncertainty in the prvisin f assistance during this time perid, there is als uncertainty fr this incme surce. ML2 (Feb-May): This is expected t be equally true in ML1 and ML2 ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): WFP plans during this perid t deliver a full ratin t all refugees wh arrived after June In sme areas, assistance is delivered cash frm equivalent t a full ratin. Assistance is funded thrugh December and therefre expected t be significant in ML1 6. Humanitarian assistance Very Significant (>50%) Minr (<10%) Accrding t data cllected in December 2016, 58% f refugees reprted fd assistance as ne f their three mst significant surces f fd/incme. This number is lwer than expected, given that full ratins are prvided t a high number f refugees. Hwever, data cllectin may have included thse in the ld caselad wh are receiving half ratins. This ppulatin may have ther surces f fd/incme that exceed the amunt given by WFP. ML2 (Feb-May): WFP s plans t prvide a full-ratin, r cash/vucher equivalent, extends thrugh at least the end f February next year. Hwever, funding shrtfalls are equally, if nt mre likely, during this perid. Pssibly mre likely because the number f refugees cntinues t increase daily and may exceed the planning figure. Therefre, while this surce f incme is expected t be ne f the mst significant if delivered, since funding is nt guaranteed, it is currently assumed t be minr.

17 STEP 5 DESCRIBE IMPACTS ON HH FOOD SOURCES A List the surces f fd cnsumed during the scenari perid. 7 B Hw imprtant is each fd surce during the first fur mnths f the scenari perid (Octber 2017 January 2018)? C Hw imprtant is each fd surce during the secnd fur mnths f the scenari perid (February - May 2018)? D Describe the imprtance f each surce fr husehlds. Hw and t what level will each surce cntribute t meeting fd needs? 1. Own crp prductin Mderate (10-30%) Mderate (10-30%) ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): Refugees wh were able t plant are likely t harvest mainly vegetables and ther hrticultural crps like tmates, kra, egg plants and sme cereal fr maize r srghum that can last 1-2 mnths. This will take place in Nvember/December. Sme husehlds wh were settled n areas that rcky/stny r received less fertile land, are likely t harvest lwer yields. It is unlikely the majrity f refugees in Ivempi, Palabek, and Omug will benefit frm this seasns harvest since sme recently arrived this year. Data cllected in December 2016 fund that 34% f refugees nted prductin r sale f staple fd crps as ne f their mst imprtant surces f fd r incme. Since this is figure is nt brken dwn t cnsumptin versus sale f crps, it is nt pssible t knw what percentage wuld state that cnsumptin f crps (rather than sale f crps) is ne f their three mst imprtant incme surces. It is als pssible this number (34%) includes refugees in the ld caselad wh have larger plt sizes and can prduce mre relatively mre fd. ML2 (Feb-May): It is likely sme husehlds will be able t cnsume crps frm wn prductin frm the Octber- December. In ML2, the husehlds will be able nly t cnsume vegetables and ther quick maturing crps since the main harvest start beynd the utlk perid in June/July. The same explanatin prvided in Step 4 Agricultural labr incme is applicable here, althugh sme refugees may receive payment in-kind. 2. In-kind wages/remittance s Minr (<10%) Minr (<10%) ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): There will be sme pprtunities fr refugees t earn incme thrugh agricultural labr pprtunities in nearby cmmunities. During this perid, harvesting labr is expected t be available. Accrding t data cllected in December 2016, 28% f refugees reprted agricultural labr as ne f their tp three incme surces. It is expected that during 2017, thugh, the prprtin f refugees wh will be able t access agricultural labr pprtunities will decline. This is due t the cntinued large-scale influx f refugees that is increasing the supply f labr; the number f refugees seeking agricultural labr pprtunities is expected t far exceed the number f labr pprtunities available. 3. Market purchases: cash Mderate (10-30%) Mderate (10-30%) ML2 (Feb-May): During this perid, cultivatin labr is expected t be avaiable. Fr the same reasns as nted abve, these incme-earning pprtunities are likely t be quite lw. ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): Mst refugees are expected t purchase sme fd frm the market thrughut the utlk perid. Funds fr this are expected t be available thrugh surces listed in Step 4. It is likely husehlds will purchase relatively less fd cmpared t first seasn 2017 when prductin was affected by dry spells and belw average prductin. 7 This shuld include any humanitarian assistance prvided as fd.

18 4. Market purchases: credit Mderate (10-30%) Mderate (10-30%) ML2 (Feb-May): Market purchases are expected t be nrmal fr the perids when husehlds d nt have access t wn prductin in February-May.. Husehlds are expected t purchase sme fd with incme surces listed in Step 4. The same infrmatin as listed in Market Purchases: Cash applies here, but it is likely sme refugees will rely n credit r brrwing t access fd frm markets. Accrding t December 2016 data, nearly 50 percent f refugees in all camps nted brrwing as a surce f fd. Althugh it is nt specified if this is frm relatives r shp keepers, it is likely sme brrwing/purchasing n credit is taking place. It shuld be nted that refugees are nted expected t have tw frms f very significant humanitarian assistance, ne inkind and ne in cash/vucher. Rather, this categry is nted twice because sme refugees are being prvided inkind assistance, while thers are being prvided cash/vucher. ML1 (Oct 18-Jan 17): WFP plans during this perid t deliver a full ratin t all refugees wh arrived after June In sme areas, assistance is delivered in-kind. Assistance is funded thrugh December and therefre expected t be significant in ML1 5. Humanitarian assistance Very Significant (>50%) Minr (<10%) Accrding t data cllected in December 2016, 58% f refugees reprted fd assistance as ne f their three mst significant surces f fd/incme. This number is lwer than expected, given that full ratins are prvided t a high number f refugees. Hwever, data cllectin may have included thse in the ld caselad wh are receiving half ratins. This ppulatin may have ther surces f fd/incme that exceed the amunt given by WFP. 6. Other Mderate (10-30%) Mderate (10-30%) ML2 (Feb-May): WFP s plans t prvide a full-ratin, r cash/vucher equivalent, extends thrugh at least the end f the year. Hwever, funding shrtfalls are equally, if nt mre likely, during this perid. Pssibly mre likely because the number f refugees cntinues t increase daily and may exceed the planning figure. Therefre, while this surce f fd is expected t be ne f the mst significant if delivered, since funding is nt guaranteed, it is currently assumed t be minr. It shuld be nted that accrding t December 2016 survey data, 80.1% f refugees reprted a fd/incme surce ( ther ) as ne f their tp three surces f incme. This wuld indicate that the majrity f respndents have a surce f fd/incme utside f the abve listed and that this surce f fd/incme is fairly imprtant. This culd include incme frm credit r brrwing, as well as livestck related labr pprtunities.

19 STEP 6 DESCRIBE AND CLASSIFY PROJECTED HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY A Given current cnditins and utcmes (Step 2), prjected access t fd and incme (Steps 4 and 5) and likely humanitarian respnse (Step 6), describe the evlutin f husehld fd cnsumptin and livelihds during the tw scenari perids, fr the chsen HH grup. This descriptin shuld nt recap infrmatin prvided in earlier steps. Rather, it shuld answer the fllwing key questins: 1. On average, will husehlds be able t meet basic fd requirements during the scenari perid? and 2. Will husehlds have adequate incme t affrd key nn-fd expenditures? ML1 (Octber 2017 January 2018) Fd cnsumptin: Refugees in the ld caselad will have access t wn prductin, and varius ther small surces including wage labr, petty trade, and market purchases. Amng these, prductin is likely t be the mst imprtant surce, yet nly 1-2 mnths f cmbined vegetables and cereal prductin is expected in Nvember/December. Assistance is funded thrugh December and likely t be significant during ML1. ML1 Livelihds Change: Due t the factrs listed in Step 2 B, and heavy dependence n humanitarian assistance, refugees have little recurse fr livelihds cping utside f begging, which was reprted by a small percentage f peple in the December 2016 FSNA. ML2 (February 2018 May 2018) Fd cnsumptin: Funding levels are als uncertain during this perid, and in the absence f assistance, it is expected that refugees wuld face fd cnsumptin gaps. Althugh ther surces f fd and incme are present, it is likely that levels are insufficient t meet all basic fd and nn-fd needs. In the absence f HA, fd cnsumptin gaps wuld be relatively larger during this time perid, as husehld fd stcks are likely t be lwer during this time perid. Of greatest cncern are the recently arrived refugees after June in Ivempi, Palabek, Omug, and any ther settlements established during this perid, as it is unlikely this ppulatin was able t cultivate fr secnd seasn prductin. They will be even mre dependent n humanitarian assistance t meet their basic fd needs. Additinally, thse wh received less fertile land are f cncern. ML2 Livelihds Change: Based n the abve estimates, a typical husehld in the new caselad is likely able t prduce and purchase less than 20 percent f their kcals needs per mnth. Prductin arund 50 kilgrams meets abut 5 percent f the kcal needs f a family f seven per mnth thrugh May. Assuming an incme f arund 20,000 UGX a mnth allws a husehld t purchase rughly 13 kilgrams a mnth, meeting apprximately 10 percent f a husehld s mnthly kcal needs. With humanitarian assistance and these surces f fd and incme, it is likely mst refugees are meeting their basic fd needs. In the absence f assistance, thugh, husehlds wuld likely pursue additinal cping mechanisms t increase their cnsumptin, but wuld still likely face fd cnsumptin gaps. FEWS NET s calculatins are similar t thse prduced by SAVE The Children in their Rapid HEA assessment in Bidibidi settlement. Due t the factrs listed in Step 2 B, and heavy dependence n humanitarian assistance, refugees have little recurse fr livelihds cping utside f begging, which was reprted by a small percentage f peple in the December 2016 FSNA. Sme husehlds wuld be likely t pursue additinal labr pprtunities, search fr wild fds, and pssibly mve in search f new fd surces, in the absence f assistance.

20 % f needed kcals, assuming SCENARIO SUMMARY TABLE 150% 100% 50% 0% Fd assistance Prductin Market purchases Surce: FEWS NET Surce: Save the Children B Based n yur respnse t 7A, classify the chsen HH grup (1B) in this area using the IPC 2.0 Husehld Scale. HH Grup (1B) Classificatin fr ML1: Phase 2: Stressed HH Grup (1B) Classificatin fr ML2: Phase 3: Crisis

21 STEP 7 DESCRIBE AND CLASSIFY PROJECTED AREA FOOD SECURITY A Describe hw malnutritin and mrtality are likely t evlve in this area during the scenari perid. Cnsider current levels f malnutritin and mrtality (2D), prjected changes t fd access (Step 7A), and ther factrs that may affect malnutritin (e.g., seasnality, disease, and lcal caring practices). 8 Amng refugees wh arrived after July 2015, including all refugees wh will arrive thrughut the utlk perid: In the absence f humanitarian assistance, it is pssible GAM (WHZ) culd deterirate t Critical (>=15%) levels. With cntinued humanitarian assistance, it is expected GAM (WHZ) will be stable belw Serius (10-14%) levels B Based n Step 6B and Step 7A, classify this area accrding t the IPC 2.0 Area Scale. Remember t prvide classificatin fr the entire scenari perid. Nte that malnutritin and mrtality are relevant t IPC classificatin as supprting evidence f fd access cnstraints. Area Classificatin fr ML1: Phase 2: Stressed If the emergency assistance described in Step 6 did nt ccur wuld this classificatin be at least ne phase wrse? Yes, absence f HA wuld change phase Area Classificatin fr ML2: Phase 3: Crisis If the emergency assistance described in Step 6 did nt ccur wuld this classificatin be at least ne phase wrse? HA nt expected during scenari perid STEP 8 IDENTIFY EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE SCENARIO If the scenari develped abve is a mst likely scenari, list key events that wuld significantly change the prjected utcmes described in steps 7 and 8. In additin t lcal events, cnsider natinal, reginal, and internatinal events. Select events that: Are pssible, but are nt included in the scenari. Extremely unlikely events shuld nt be included here. Wuld result in a change in the IPC classificatin fr this area. Funding t WFP is sufficient t prvide between half and full ratins t newly arrived refugees: Outcmes are expected t remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in the event that refugees cntinue t receive full ratins mnthly frm WFP. Husehlds are likely t sell sme f their assistance t purchase nn-fd needs, and earn incme/fd frm ther surces. Hwever, these surces are expected t be relatively small and irregular, s while Minimal (IPC Phase 1!) utcmes may exist amng sme refugees in sme mnths, it is mst likely that the majrity will have nly minimally adequate cnsumptin (Stressed (IPC Phase 2!)) but be unable t affrd sme essential nn-fd items withut irreversible cping. In the event that assistance is secured, but is delayed - delayed fd distributins that may increase cnsumptin gaps in the shrt term seeing that humanitarian assistance frms the bulk f fd cnsumed by the refugees. 8 Nn-fd security specific cntributing factrs t nutritinal status and mrtality are imprtant t nte in Step 7A, but remember they are nt taken int cnsideratin when classifying acute fd insecurity using the IPC. Nutritin and mrtality infrmatin is used in the classificatin f acute fd insecurity nly t the extent the utcmes are driven by fd cnsumptin.