IV. HOW CAN THE POPULATION EXPLOSION BE CONTROLLED? F Richard H. Bernsten Agricultural Economics Michigan State University

Transcription

1 IV. HOW CAN THE POPULATION EXPLOSION BE CONTROLLED? F-2010 Richard H. Bernsten Agricultural Economics Michigan State University 1

2 I. Trends in World Population Growth A. Pre-Modern High birth rate (40/1,000 people/year) High death rate (40/1,000 people/year) Population stable to 1500s (life expectancy=25 years) (Fig 3.1) B. Modern Increasingly rapid growth (Cartoon) o : 100 years to double ( billion) o : 37 yrs to double ( billion) o But, rate of increase has been declining since the late 1980s! Current population: billion (US Census Bureau, 10/1/10) 2

3 Future population growth projections Scenarios assume different future fertility/death rates (Figure 1) billion (medium scenario), 1974 est. = billion) billion and remain stable or decline (UN)? But AIDS rate = >20% in some Sub-Saharan African countries!! Declining life expectancy--zimbabwe: =58, Now=43 yrs Rise of shortgevity in Sub Saharan Africa (Zim., aspirations) Key Concepts Replacement fertility level (RFL)--2.1 kids/woman Zero population growth--in long run, countries will achieve ZPG after RFL is reached But population will still increase after RFL is achieved o Population momentum--3 billion people < 24 yrs. old, (46% of world s current population) (Why?) 3

4 C. What Causes Rapid Population Growth? (Table 4.3) Key Determinants (country level) Death rate Migration rate (Current Pattern) o US--historical & current source of population growth Early 1900s, Europe; Now Africa, LAC, Asia Increase in illegal immigration (Mexico, CA & Brazil) Immigrants in past 30 years = equal 1/3 of all US immigrants o Europe--immigration backlash (How to reduce illegal immigrants?) Total fertility rate (TFR), higher TFR = more rapid population growth def. Total # of children a woman has between age Demographic Transition Model Shows how nations with high pop. growth achieve lower rates (1 st --hi fert.+hi death rates, 2 nd low death+hi fert. rates, 3 rd low fert +low death rates) Developed countries o Death rates & birth rates have fallen gradually since 1850s Why? O o o O o o 4

5 LDCs o Death rates declined rapidly (1930s-1970s) to 20/1,000 Health, sanitation improvements Food production technology o But birth rates (fertility) remained high (40/1,000) o Results--population explosion! o Then, birth rates (fertility) declined in 1970s (DT, Figure 2.1) Country 1965 TFR TFR India: Mexico: (2.1 by 2050!) Global TFR: 1950= UN Estimates (2005) for number of children/women (15-49 yrs) World =2.5; Africa=4.1, Asia=2.4, LA=2.1, NA=2.0, Europe=1.6 Today, Worldwide o TFR <2.1 in 52 countries=44% of world population (Figure) o TFR <2.1 in 12 LDCs o Significant decline in many Catholic & Islamic countries o Results--slower world population growth rate 5

6 D. Trends in Rate of World Population Growth Growth rate peaked in early 1960s--2.04% per year (Figure) Current rate--1.2% per year ( ) Showstopper!! Projected rate ( ) Growth rate is declining RAPIDLY in all regions, except Africa Two Stories Population Growth Rate/year (Fig. 2.2) o High income countries 0.7% (pop. implosion, Spain!) o Middle income: 0.9% (great success) o Low income : 1.8% (some success) Population Myth--uncontrolled population growth! But major differences exist between counties (Fertility Map) High population growth rates (17 countries (>2.5%) Where/Why? Angola, Benin, Chad, D.R. Congo, Guatemala, Jordon, Kuwait, Madagascar, Niger, Saudi Arabia, Uganda, W. Bank/Gaza, Yemen 6

7 Successful LDCs (< 2%) Where/Why? Bolivia, Burundi, Haiti (1.9); Cambodia, Egypt, Namibia, Venez. (1.8); Bangladesh, El Salvador, Colombia, Thailand (1.7); Algeria, Costa Rica, Mexico (1.6); DR, Ecuador, Panama, India, Peru (1.5); Mexico (1.4); Indonesia, Sri Lanka (1.3); Brazil, Chile (1.2), Tunisia, Vietnam, Zambia (1.1); Argentina, Zimbabwe Why? (1.0), China (0.7). Western/industrialized countries (low population implosion!!) US (1.0%); Canada (0.9); Portugal, Spain (0.5); Belgium (0.4); Denmark, Sweden (0.3); UK, (0.2); Germany (0.1); Italy (-0.1); Poland (-0.3); Russia (-0.5); Ukraine (-0.8); Bulgaria (-0.9) (ALL of Europe below RFL, Europe = the Gray Continent) Implications of doubling time (Figure 3.2) o World--fewer years required to double population, reversal o Major regional differences (2008 data (Figure 3.2) Low: Europe, 800+ yrs. High: SS Africa, 28 yrs. (fertility rate = 5.4) o Pop. growth paradox: most rapid growth in poorest countries 7

8 II. Distribution of World's Population A. Largest Countries Most Important for Determining Future Population 5 countries = 48% of World s Population! (China 21%; India 16%; US 5%; Indonesia 3%, Brazil 3%) 10 countries accounted for 60% of annual increase ( ) (India, China, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, US, Brazil, Bangladesh, Mexico, Philippines) B. Distribution of World s Population Shares Is Changing Dramatically 98% of projected world pop. growth in LDCs ( ) Africa s share of world population is increasing rapidly See: regional share trends and resulting shares (Fig. 30.5) 8

9 Region 1950 (%) 2000 (%) 2050 (%) Change 1950 vs.2050 Africa >140% Asia % Europe Declining LAC % N. Amer Declining Note: 1950, Europe = 3 x Africa, 2050, Europe =1/3 Africa Why? Future LDC s Population Share o 1950 = 67% o 2000 = 83% o 2050 = 89% Political and economic Implications? o. (Figure 1) o. 9

10 III. Impact of Current Population Trends in LDCs A. Rapidly Aging Population Population Pyramids (Pick country--census Bureau) (Fig 8.1) (Examples--US, Spain, Pakistan) LDCs = cone shaped DCs = rectangular (Pakistan, Figure) (Sweden, Figure) Age distribution explains differences in pyramids (1975) Region <15 yrs >65 yrs Future? (Figure 2) Africa 45% 3% LDCs 37% 4% (World Age Dist., 2005) DCs 22% 11% By 2025, world s >65 yrs population will grow from 7 to 11% (Fig. ) Consequences for LDCs? o Must invest in kids--education, child health; creating jobs o Other challenges/problems? 10

11 Consequences for DCs (and LDCs in the future)? (Japan/Europe, workers: retired now = 3:1; 2050=1:1) o Facing a labor shortage, increasingly dependant on migrants Spain s & other EU country s solution? o Must invest in meeting the needs of the elderly--straining social security/retirement, health care o Other? B. Rapidly Growing Urban Population Began with Industrial Revolution in Europe/US in early 1800s Now urban areas in LDCs are growing rapidly Region 1950 (%) 2000 (%) 2030(%) LA Africa Asia

12 Now (2007) most people live in cities/urban areas (Figure1.2) o majority of world population rural o cities > 10 m. people (17 in LDCs) (Figure) o urban population will = double rural o 21 st century--90% of population growth in cities (Figure) Growing problems common to all LDC mega-cities (Photo) o Water, sanitation, solid wastes, pollution o Unemployment, poverty, housing shortages o Potential for civil violence, radical religious fundamentalism Priorities for improving the lives of urban dwellers o Reduce population growth among residents (family planning) o Improve education, healthcare, sewerage, housing, clean water, transportation, job creation 12

13 IV. Is Rapid Population Growth Really A Problem? A. Pessimists predictors of doom! Malthus (1789) Predicted pop. growth would exceed food production capacity Saw famine (positive) & postponing marriage (preventative) as only checks on population growth Didn't foresee...what? Ehrlich (biologist), Population Bomb (1968, 1989) Renewed Malthus warnings Promoted contraception as solution Flavin (Worldwatch Institute) Three factors--environmental change, resource constraints & declining quality of life--will break population growth B. Optimists Richman: Population not a problem! (Figure) Human welfare is improving--life expectancy, infant mortality, food availability, nutrition Population growth promotes progress via specialization/division 13 of labor, which raises productivity & income (economies of scale)

14 Simon (economist), The Ultimate Resource (1980s) More people leads to more possibility of innovation What if Einstein s mother had practiced family planning? C. Current View Rapid population growth puts pressure on land, water, biodiversity resources => threatens sustainability & slows development Development slows population growths Why? Slower population growth promotes development Why? Carrying capacity concept: def. population + consumption vs. available resources But population growth in LDCs is only partly responsible for worldwide environmental degradation DC s have greater impact on environment than LDC s population 14 growth, due to consumption (richest 20%=85% of consumption)

15 V. What are the Prospects for Further Reducing Fertility in LDC? A. Determinants of TFR Direct (4)--marriage age, birth interval, abortion, contraception Indirect (5)--education, job, location, social status, religion B. Why Are Fertility Rates High in SOME LDCs? Must replace society (Photo) o Conditioned by high mortality Need labor (kids = wealth) (Photo) o Girls for housework, boys for farm work Must insure future security (Photo) o Kids support old folks Cultural values (Photo) o Norms: kids desired, birth => status (Shona, mom s name) o Preference for sons, esp. in Asia China, India (China-3 min) 15

16 C. Why Does Development Reduce Fertility? Reduces need for many births o Less infant mortality, less births needed Reduces need for labor o > urban, need less labor o > technology, labor less valuable Improves security of elderly o Social security systems provide safety net Reduces desire for sons o With > education/opportunities, female kids have > value D. What Methods Exist for Reducing Fertility? Traditional--abstinence, breast feeding, spacing, induced abortions, contraceptive foods (Photo) Modern--condom, pill (1960), loop, sterilization (Photo) 16

17 E. How Are Govts. & NGOs in LDCs Promoting Family Planning? Publicizing benefits of small families & providing information o Traditional--song, drama o Modern TV/soaps, radio, plays, billboards (Photo) Improving access to contraceptives via heath clinics (Photo) o Offering choices not just one method o Subsidizing cost Increasing social pressure o Forced abortions--if not married, already have 1 child (China) o Educating men (large family=macho/virility) o But, values/attitudes change slowly Offering monetary incentives/disincentives o Cash bonuses for sterilization (previously in India) o Fining couples for having >1 child (China) Passing laws related to marriage o Minimum age for marriage (Tunisia, China-21/25 yrs.) 17

18 F. Have Family Planning Programs Been Successful? Great increase in contraceptive use since 1960 (Figure 6.4) Contraceptive use reduces fertility rate (Figure) NEW Evidence of Declining TFRs Results of survey/study in LDCs, N=300,000 women (Photo) o Success in parts of Africa since 1970s: Kenya (-36%), Zimbabwe (-18%), Botswana (-26%) o Most women use family planning: LDCs=60% DCs=>70% o Most LDC women want fewer kids (Figure) o Great unmet demand, 20% of LDC & 50% African women) o UNPA estimate = 200 million women (Funding constraint) o Meeting demand would reduce LDC s growth to1.6%/year 18

19 G. What factors have contributors to this success? Strong family planning programs/availability of contraceptives PLUS indirect impact of development.on contraceptive use/fertility o Higher income o Higher costs of large supporting families o Greater urbanization o Improved women s/child health o More female education/economic power (Policy Brief, Power of educ girls, 2 min) (strong link between women s productive & reproductive role) Example of great success--kerala, India o What s unique about Kerela? o Emphasized both Cultural factors--education + social agreement Family planning--clinics, condom distribution, word-of-mouth campaigns 19

20 VI. How Can Developed Countries Help? Several rich US Philanthropists/Foundations recognize importance/give $ for family planning--rockefeller Foundation, Packard Foundation, Ted Turner, Warren Buffett DC government can help by providing more aid for o Family planning Bush cut funding for the UN Population Fund, due to pressure from religious right (cut aid $ to agencies that refused to ban abortions/de-emphasize condoms) Obama reversed the global gag rule o Promoting economic development Population growth isn t the only problem Economic development slows population growth Development = the best contraceptive 20

21 Thomas Malthus, early 1800s, An Essay on the Principle of Population Return to p. 2 21

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23 Return to p. 3 Scenarios in 2003 (2050): High = 10.6 billion Medium = 9.1 billion Low = 7.7 billion Recent Changes 2050 Medium billion billion 23

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26 Decline in LDCS Upper line = Birth rate Lower line = Death rate Return to p. 5 26

27 Lifetime births/women (15-49 years of age) Return to p. 5 27

28 Severe famine in China Return to p. 6 28

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33 Years required to double population, given 2008 population growth rate Return to p. 7 33

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39 Less Developed Pct. < 15 yrs old More Developed Pct. < 15 yrs. old More Developed Pct > 60 yrs old Less Developed Pct > 60 yrs old Return to p

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44 Population Growth Rates, Return to p. 6 44

45 Age Distribution of the World s Population Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions Age More Developed Regions Male Female Male Female Population Reference Bureau Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), Return to p

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