Charting Cambodia s Economy, 1H 2017

Transcription

1 Charting Cambodia s Economy, 1H 2017 Designed to help executives interpret economic numbers and incorporate them into company s planning. Publication Date: January 3 rd, 2017

2 HELPING EXECUTIVES AROUND THE WORLD INTERPRET ECONOMIC NUMBERS Argentina Australia Brazil Brunei Cambodia Canada Chile China Hong Kong India Indonesia Laos Malaysia Mexico Myanmar New Zealand Peru Philippines Russia Singapore South Africa South Korea Taiwan Thailand Turkey United Kingdom United States Vietnam

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROFILE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Structure Competitiveness Development Growth Stability Within ASEAN, Cambodia s economy is only bigger than Laos and Brunei Cambodia s population of 16 million people is around half the size of Malaysia s Favorable demographic structure for Cambodia with relatively young population and increasing working age group Cambodia s economy has changed significantly over the past decade with more emphasis on Industry and trading with the world Cambodia is now following other ASEAN economies export driven model of growth, with high level of trade openness Share of Industry in Cambodia s GDP has surpassed that of Agriculture for the first time in 2015 Economic Structure Part of the country s economic profile, economic structure section gives readers useful views to understand economic fundamental and determine what matters for the country s economy. 5

4 Within ASEAN, Cambodia s economy is only bigger than Laos and Brunei 2015 GDP USD billion, Market Exchange Rate US China Japan Germany UK ASEAN* France India Italy Brazil* Canada Korea Russia Australia Spain Mexico 4,124 3,365 2,858 2,433 2,420 2,073 1,816 1,773 1,551 1,378 1,326 1,225 1,200 1,144 18,037 11,182 Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Singapore Philippines Vietnam Myanmar 62.9 Cambodia* 17.8 Brunei 12.9 Laos* 12.6 Measuring the size of an economy Size of any economy is usually measured by calculating its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. To compare GDP internationally, there is a need to convert value in local currencies to one main currency, normally USD. There are two popular exchange rate to be used. The first one is the official exchange rate for that particular period. The second one is the so called Purchasing Power Parity exchange rate, which takes into account the difference in living expenses between countries. The first method is more popular in comparing the size of each economy. Size of Cambodia s economy Using the market exchange rate method, Cambodia s GDP is estimated to be around USD 17.8 billion in 2015, only bigger than Laos and Brunei. Note: (*) IMF Estimate Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database October

5 Cambodia s economy ranks 89 th in the world in the latest global competitiveness rankings, up 1 place from last year The Global Competitiveness rankings 1 Switzerland Singapore United States Netherlands Germany Sweden United Kingdom Japan Hong Kong SAR Finland Norway Denmark New Zealand Taiwan, China Canada United Arab Emirates Belgium Qatar Austria Luxembourg France Australia Ireland Israel Malaysia Korea, Rep Iceland China Saudi Arabia Estonia Czech Republic Spain Chile Thailand Lithuania Poland Azerbaijan Kuwait India Malta Indonesia Panama Russian Federation Italy Mauritius Portugal South Africa Bahrain Latvia Bulgaria Mexico Rwanda Kazakhstan Costa Rica Turkey Slovenia Philippines Brunei Darussalam Georgia Vietnam Colombia Romania Jordan Botswana Slovak Republic Oman Peru Macedonia, FYR Hungary Morocco Sri Lanka Barbados Uruguay Croatia Jamaica Iran, Islamic Rep Tajikistan Guatemala Armenia Albania Brazil Montenegro Cyprus Namibia Ukraine Greece Algeria Honduras Cambodia Serbia Ecuador Dominican Republic Lao PDR Trinidad and Tobago Tunisia Kenya Bhutan Nepal Côte d'ivoire Moldova Lebanon Mongolia Nicaragua Argentina El Salvador Bangladesh Bosnia and Herzegovina Gabon Ethiopia Cape Verde Kyrgyz Republic Senegal Uganda Ghana Egypt Tanzania Paraguay Zambia Cameroon Lesotho Bolivia Pakistan Gambia, The Benin Mali Zimbabwe Nigeria Madagascar Congo, Democratic Rep Venezuela Liberia Sierra Leone Mozambique Malawi Burundi Chad Mauritania Yemen th in the world 16 th among 22 in Asia Pacific Rank / 138 Country / Economy Score 2 Singapore Japan Hong Kong SAR New Zealand Taiwan, China Australia Malaysia Korea, Rep China Thailand India Indonesia Philippines Brunei Darussalam Vietnam Cambodia Lao PDR Bhutan Nepal Mongolia Bangladesh Pakistan 3.50 Global Competitiveness World Economic Forum, who publishes annual Global Competitiveness Report, defines competitiveness as the set of institutions, policies, and factors that determine the level of productivity of a country. Since 2005, the World Economic Forum has based its competitiveness analysis on the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI), a comprehensive tool that measures the microeconomic and macroeconomic foundations of national competitiveness. More information on the report can be found on its website Cambodia in the Global Competitiveness Rankings Cambodia s economy ranks 89th in the world in the latest global competitiveness rankings, up 1 place from last year. Within ASEAN, Cambodia s ranking is the second lowest. Source: The Global Competitiveness Report , World Economic Forum 16

6 Weaker contributions from Investment and Export was compensated by lower Import in 2014 Source of Real GDP growth Expenditure C 7.9% 8.8% 5.6% 3.5% 3.7% I -5.5% 2.2% 1.4% 5.8% 2.3% I (capital) -5.8% 2.2% 1.4% 5.7% 2.3% I (inventory) 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% G -0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% X 12.1% 15.7% 7.3% 19.4% 11.8% M -9.5% -15.7% -8.4% -25.7% -12.3% Discrepancy 1.5% -4.5% 1.1% 4.2% 1.4% Source of Growth Growth contribution shows portions of the total growth from each composition. They must add up to the total growth. Import is a deduction to GDP and the growth in Import contributes negatively to the overall GDP growth. Growth drivers for Cambodia s economy Export has traditionally been the biggest source of growth for Cambodia s economy, while Import has been on the other side of the coin. In 2014, weaker contributions from Investment and Export was compensated by lower Import. GDP 6.0% 7.1% 7.3% 7.6% 7.1% Note: (*) C = Private Consumption, I = Investment including: I (capital) = Capital formation and I (inventory) = change in inventory G = Public consumption, X = Export of goods and services, M = Import of goods and services Source: ADB; Charting Economy analysis 31

7 Except in 2008, Price stability in Cambodia has been rather mild and the trend is toward mild inflation in 2017 Cambodia s Inflation Percentage change in consumer price index Projected Inflation* 2017, annual percentage change in CPI 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Myanmar 9.1% India 5.2% Russia 5.0% Indonesia 4.2% Vietnam 3.7% Philippines 3.4% World 3.3% Malaysia 3.0% Cambodia 2.7% US 2.3% China 2.3% Laos 2.3% Australia 2.1% Thailand 1.6% Singapore 1.1% Euro area 1.1% Japan 0.5% Brunei 0.0% Inflation Inflation is normally calculated from the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is the general price level of goods and services purchased by consumers. Inflation in Cambodia Except in 2008, Price stability in Cambodia has been rather mild and the trend is toward mild inflation in Note: (*) Forecasted by IMF in World Economic Outlook report, October 2016 Source: IMF 35

8 Starting a business in Cambodia is harder than in any other ASEAN country Starting a business rank Cost - Paid-in min. Procedure - Cost - Men Procedure - Time - Time - Men Women (% capital (% of Economy Rank DTF* Men (% of income Women Women (days) of income income per (number) per capita) (number) (days) per capita) capita) New Zealand Hong Kong SAR, China Singapore Australia Korea, Rep Taiwan, China Thailand Brunei Darussalam Japan Malaysia Vietnam China Timor-Leste Myanmar Indonesia India Lao PDR Philippines Cambodia Central African Republic Starting a Business This topic measures the paid-in minimum capital requirement, number of procedures, time and cost for a small- to medium-sized limited liability company to start up and formally operate. To make the data comparable across 190 economies, Doing Business uses a standardized business that is 100% domestically owned, has start-up capital equivalent to 10 times income per capita, engages in general industrial or commercial activities and employs between 10 and 50 people one month after the commencement of operations, all of whom are domestic nationals. The most recent round of data collection for the project was completed in June Starting a Business in Cambodia Starting a business in Cambodia is harder than in any other ASEAN country. Note: (*) An economy s distance to frontier score is indicated on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the worst performance and 100 the frontier Source: Doing Business

9 I d SUBSCRIPTION ORDER FORM Complete the steps below or do it online at like to order the following package(s) ASIAPAC Australia 1H2017 USD 99 China 1H2017 USD 99 Hong Kong 1H2017 USD 99 India 1H2017 USD 99 New Zealand 1H2017 USD 99 South Korea 1H2017 USD 99 Taiwan 1H2017 USD 99 AUS & NZ 1H2017 USD 139 China HK Taiwan 1H2017 USD 189 AMERICA Argentina 1H2017 USD 99 Brazil 1H2017 USD 99 Canada 1H2017 USD 99 Chile 1H2017 USD 99 Mexico 1H2017 USD 99 Peru 1H2017 USD 99 United States 1H2017 USD 99 LATAM5 1H2017* USD 319 ASEAN Brunei 1H2017 USD 99 Cambodia 1H2017 USD 99 Indonesia 1H2017 USD 99 Laos 1H2017 USD 99 Malaysia 1H2017 USD 99 Myanmar 1H2017 USD 99 Philippines 1H2017 USD 99 Singapore 1H2017 USD 99 Thailand 1H2017 USD 99 Vietnam 1H2017 USD 99 CLMB 1H2017** USD 239 ASEAN6 1H2017*** USD 379 OTHERS Russia 1H2017 USD 99 South Africa 1H2017 USD 99 Turkey 1H2017 USD 99 United Kingdom 1H2017 USD 99 BRIC 1H2017**** USD 249 Please invoice me using the details below We accept credit card / Paypal / bank transfer. More details on the payment will be provided in the invoice. Scan Save 20% When order 2 or more individual-country reports Name : Company : Address : Country : Signature : and return this form to distribution@chartingeconomy.com It s easier to fill this form online, go to Note: (*) Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru; (**) Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Brunei (***) Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines and Vietnam; (****) Brazil, Russia, India and China Charting Economy Helping Executives Interpret Economic Numbers Managed by Chart Maker Co., Ltd. (registered no ) 19 Moo 11, Lamlukka rd., Lamlukka district, Pathumthani, Thailand 12150