Unit 3 - Geography of Population: Demography, Migration

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1 Unit 3 - Geography of Population: Demography, Migration 38:180 Human Geography 2.1 Demography Demography is the study of the size and composition of population, including the dynamics of population change, and their spatial variations (distribution). 1

2 Figure 5.11 World Population Growth Growth of Shares of World Population World Population (in Billions): Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. 2

3 Components of Growth Fertility Crude Birth Rate General Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate Mortality Crude Death Rate Infant Mortality Rate of Natural Increase Doubling Time 3

4 Components of Growth Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = # of births x 1,000 total population Normal range is ~ 15 to world CBR is 20 Components of Growth General Fertility Rate (GFR) = # of births x 1,000 female population Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = average number of children born to females (15-49) over their lifetime 2017 world TFR is 2.5 4

5 Components of Growth Crude Death Rate (CDR) = # of deaths x 1,000 total population Normal range is ~ 5 to world CDR is 8 Components of Growth Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = # of deaths of infants < 1 yr per 1,000 live births 2017 world IMR is was 36 5

6 Components of Growth Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) = CBR CDR (expressed as %) 2017 world RNI is 1.2 Doubling Time: 70/RNI current: world = 58 years North America = 175 years Africa = 27 years 2017 World Variations CBR CDR RNI TFR Africa North America Latin America Europe Asia

7 2017 Variations, Africa CBR CDR RNI TFR Africa Northern Africa Western Africa Eastern Africa Middle Africa Southern Africa Different Patterns of Fertility Decline Fertility Patterns for Selected Countries: Sources: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision; Population Reference Bureau; and Korea National Statistics Office. 7

8 PRB Data, 2017 PRB Data,

9 Fig. 5.5 World Rates of Natural Increase

10 PRB Data, 2017 PRB Data,

11 PRB Data, 2017 PRB Data,

12 See gapminder video on growth of the world s population. Factors Affecting Components of Growth CDR Standard of living Spatial interaction, diffusion Catastrophic events CBR Biological factors Economic factors Cultural factors Government Policies 12

13 PRB Data, 2015 PRB Data,

14 AIDS (billboard in Malawi) 14

15 AIDS (poster in South Africa) ANSWER 7 How Does Income Relate to Life Expectancy? Short answer Rich people live longer Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 15

80 Lifespan 70 60 This graph shows income and lifespan in the world today. Each bubble is a country. 50 $500 $5 000 $50 000 Income Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp. 2012.

16 80 Lifespan This graph shows income and lifespan in the world today. Each bubble is a country. 50 $500 $5 000 $ Income Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 80 Lifespan Color shows region. 50 Income $500 $5 000 $ Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 16

17 80 Lifespan The size of the bubble represents the population. 50 Income $500 $5 000 $ Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 80 Lifespan There are no countries here. On this high income, there are no countries with life expectancy below Income $500 $5 000 $ Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 17

18 80 Lifespan 70 There s no country here. On this low income, there s no country with life expectancy above Income $500 $5 000 $ Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 See gapminder video on effect of reducing (child) poverty and infant mortality. 18

19 Contraceptive Use, selected countries Percent of Married Women Using Contraception Sources: Demographic and Health Surveys and United Nations Population Division. 19

20 Contraceptive Use, selected countries PRB Data,

21 PRB Data,

22 One-child policy, China (now relaxed) Consequences of the one-child policy? 22

23 Population Composition Age and Sex: Population Pyramids Population Pyramid, LDCs Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed Countries: 2008 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. 23

24 Population Composition Age and Sex: Population Pyramids Three Basic Structures: 24

25 Brazil Fig. 5.6 China in the late 20 th Century 25

26 Namibia, 1991 Germany,

Canada s Territorial North, 2001 80-84 70-74

10-14 0-4 (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.

27 Canada s Territorial North, male f emale (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) Percent of Population 27

28 Population Aging Insert slides on aging Fig. 5.9 Proportion of the Population Aged 60 + PRB Data,

29 Explanations of Population Growth 1) S-shaped curve 2) Malthus 3) Marx 4) Boserup 5) Demographic Transition 6) Fertility Transition Reproductive Revolution 29

30 Figure 5.11 World Population Growth Malthus and the Problem of Overpopulation Thomas Malthus (1798) Essay on the Principle of Population relationship between population growth and food output 30

31 Malthus and the Problem of Overpopulation Thomas Malthus (1798) Essay on the Principle of Population relationship between population growth and food output Checks on population growth: preventive check positive check ultimate check Malthus and the Problem of Overpopulation Critique: 1) Output Argument 2) Rate of Population Growth Argument 31

32 The Demographic Transition Model (Fig. 5.12a) And in the Real World 32

Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico Births/Deaths per 1,000 60 50 40 30 20 10 Sweden Birth Rate Death Rate Mexico Birth Rate Death Rate 0 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975

33 Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico Births/Deaths per 1, Sweden Birth Rate Death Rate Mexico Birth Rate Death Rate Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326. Voluntary Human Extinction Movement vhemt.org 33

34 Distribution and Density Distribution Density Physiological Density 34

35 Population Continents 35

36 Fig World Population Distribution and Density 36

37 Physiological Density Region Physiological Density (hectares per person) Africa 0.27 Asia 0.11 Latin America 0.31 Europe 0.28 North America 0.80 Oceania 1.62 World 0.25 Physiological Density Place Density (people per km 2 ) Physiological Density (people per km 2 arable land) Japan 335 2,620 India Egypt 172 3,150 World 56* 350 * Based on land mass, and excluding Antarctica 37

PRB Data, 2017 Migration 3 kinds of movement : 1) Cyclic: day to day routine activity 2) Periodic: longer term, but temporary e.g. migrant labour, education, transhumance http://www.

38 PRB Data, 2017 Migration 3 kinds of movement : 1) Cyclic: day to day routine activity 2) Periodic: longer term, but temporary e.g. migrant labour, education, transhumance 3) Migration: permanent movement of residence Migration can be international or internal (regional); forced or voluntary 38

39 Migration 5 approaches to explaining migration: 1) Push-Pull Factors 2) Laws of Migration (Ravenstein) see box 5.6 3) Mobility Transition 4) Behavioural / Humanistic Explanations 5) Moorings Migration Push-Pull Factors: Economic Political Cultural Environmental And intervening opportunities 39

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Migration: Refugees An issue of human rights 1951 UN Refugee Convention refugee: a person who has a wellfounded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion,

42 Migration: Refugees An issue of human rights 1951 UN Refugee Convention refugee: a person who has a wellfounded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion. Refugees plus internal displaced persons (IDPs): 14.4M plus 38M in 2014 The Age of Migration 42

43 43

44 Fig Major source countries of refugees, end of 2013 Refugee Population by Place of Asylum,

45 Note on Misuse of Term Environmental refugees are not refugees Asylum seekers are not refugees (yet ) Economic refugees are not refugees Illegal immigrants are not refugees, but refugees often arrive illegally Rock and roll refugees are not refugees (for Pink Floyd fans) Remittances Money earned abroad and sent home by a temporary foreign worker (migrant worker) person-to-person transfers Can be domestic or international we focus on the latter Especially important for developing countries e.g. Haiti, Mexico, Philippines Global estimate: $600B (2015) 45

Impacts: + Income effect + Community effect + Finance effect Risk

46 Remittances Geographic variations in how remittances are sent: Access to services Regulatory barriers Cost Positive and Negative Impacts: + Income effect + Community effect + Finance effect Risk of dependence Income distribution Transparency Local labour market effects 46

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51 Remittances Amount sent back varies with: Place of origin Income Family composition Demographics Case: the Philippines 51

52 Remittances Amount sent back varies with: Place of origin Income Family composition Demographics Case: the Philippines A New Trend: Reverse Remittances 52

1. GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF POPULATION Population & Migration

1. GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF POPULATION Population & Migration BASICS OF DEMOGRAPHY Demography - study of: POPULATION DISTRIBUTION Distribution: (Distribution is ) Living space of humans on earth s surface: