HOUSTON REGION. NET DISPLACEMENT (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Expansion, )

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1 HOUSTON REGION The Houston region has undergone significant population growth since About 13 percent of regional population lives in a census tract that has undergone strong economic expansion, while about 1 percent lives in a strongly declining area. For low-income residents, the comparable figures are 7 percent and 29 percent. Across the region, strongly declining neighborhoods have experienced a large increase of low-income residents of 40 percent since These areas have also seen large influxes of Hispanic residents, also a 40 percent increase. Meanwhile, white population in these areas has dropped 35 percent. These communities are centered in a donut-like ring around downtown, with notable concentration in Northline, Sharpston, and near Channelview. Strongly expanding neighborhoods have been on divergent trajectories, depending on whether they are in Houston proper or the suburbs. In Houston, a large swath of neighborhoods beginning with East Downtown and extending north and west to the I-610 beltway have shown significant low-income displacement. By contrast, the expanding neighborhoods in the suburbs, often along the urban fringe, have seen broad population growth, including growth in the number of low-income residents. Regional Total Population: 6,509,764 Regional Low-Income Population: 2,215,003 Regional Nonwhite Population: 4,041,75 Central City Population: 2,19,622 Central City Low-Income Population: 97,76 Central City Nonwhite Population: 1,630,24 NET DISPLACEMENT (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Expansion, ) Central City: -27,112 Suburbs: No net displacement (+30,559) NET CONCENTRATION (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Decline, ) Central City: 96,531 Suburbs: 7,22 1

2 DETAILS ON TABLES The following tables depict aggregated population and housing change in two categories of neighborhoods across the metropolitan area, its central cities, and its suburbs. The categories are: Economically expanding neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with growth and displacement. These are neighborhoods where the low-income * share of population has fallen since 2000 (indicating that an area has grown less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has grown since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents see the area as an attractive place to live). Economically declining neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with abandonment and poverty concentration. These are neighborhoods where the lowincome share of population has grown since 2000 (indicating that an area has more less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has fallen since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents do not see the area as an attractive place to live). Two variants of this measure exist, and a separate table is provided for each. They are: In the upper set of tables, a strong, narrow measure, which only includes census tracts that have a change of +/-5 percent or greater in low-income population share, and a change of +/-10 percent for nonlow-income population. This approach classifies fewer neighborhoods overall, excluding areas with only small changes in their income profile. This is the more robust and preferred measure. It is also the measure used in the accompanying maps. In the lower set of tables, a weak, broad measure, which includes all census tracts with any change that meet the criteria for the two categories above, with no cutoffs for scale. This approach classifies more neighborhoods overall, but is noisier, because it includes tracts with very small population changes. In addition, because this report relies on American Community Survey sampling data with margins of error, this measure is more likely to include erroneously classified tracts. However, this broad measure can provide a useful outer estimate of the scale of neighborhood economic expansion and decline. Three sets of tables are provided. They are: Figures for the entire metropolitan region, aggregating central cities and suburbs into one set of tables. Figures for central cities. Figures for suburban areas, defined as any area in the metropolitan region not included in a central city. This includes incorporated and unincorporated communities. Each table depicts the number of people in each of the two neighborhood categories, both overall and in various population subsets. It also shows the number of housing units of various types in each neighborhood category Share indicates what share of the regional, city, or suburban population of a given group live in expanding or declining tracts. The box is shaded in accordance with the size of the share Total indicates the absolute number of individuals in a given group that live in expanding or declining census tracts. Net Change since 2000 indicates the change of population of a subgroup in expanding or declining tracts since 2000, both in percentage and in absolute terms. These have been colored to indicate the type of change. In economically expanding tracts, green indicates net growth while blue indicates net displacement. In economically declining tracts, red indicates net poverty concentration while purple indicates net abandonment. Darker shades indicate larger percentage changes. * For the purposes of this report, low-income is classified as individuals at 200 percent of poverty line or less. 2

3 DETAILS ON MAPS Neighborhood change has also been mapped by individual census tracts, incorporating the same data used to create the tables above. The map incorporates the strong measure of neighborhood change used to create the tables. In the maps, tracts have been subdivided into four categories: Economically expanding areas with low-income displacement, indicated in blue, where a neighborhood s income profile is improving while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places undergoing changes traditionally associated with gentrification, in which economic pressures push out lower incomes while higher income residents arrive. Economically expanding areas with overall growth, indicated in green, where a neighborhood s income profile is improving while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places with significant new housing construction, where residents across the income spectrum are arriving. Economically declining areas with abandonment, indicated in purple, where a neighborhood s income profile is worsening while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places experiencing the worst neighborhood economic decline, with people across the income spectrum leaving and outright depopulation occurring. Economically declining areas with poverty concentration, indicated in red, where a neighborhood s income profile is worsening while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places where higher-income flight and eroding housing stocks are causing rapid demographic and economic transition, contributing to the impoverishment of the area. The categories are also shaded to indicate the scale of low-income population change within the census tracts. The maps allow intra-regional comparisons of observed neighborhood change. However, because these classifications have been made using American Community Survey data with margins of error, precise measures are not possible and it is likely that some individual tracts are erroneously classified. As a consequence, readers are advised to focus more on clusters of tracts undergoing similar changes rather than individual outliers, particularly outliers with smaller-scale changes. 3

4 TABLES FOR METROPOLITAN AREA - Houston Region ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline 12.6% 17, % +393, % 1,15, % +30,390 Low-Income 7.% 172, % +3,447 Low-Income 29.3% 649, % +13,13 Poverty.0% 7,93 4.% +3,53 Poverty 31.6% 311, % +113,324 Extreme Poverty.5% 33, % -940 Extreme Poverty 29.7% 117, % +30,071 American Indian 15.0% 1, % +602 American Indian 21.7% 2,50 4.7% +115 Asian 14.5% 67, % +59,01 Asian 11.6% 54, % -1,752 Black 10.7% 117, % +39,253 Black 19.9% 217, % -17,194 Hispanic 10.1% 23, % +91,566 Hispanic 26.2% 617, % +10,10 White 15.2% 375, % +192,304 White 10.1% 250, % -129,090 College-Educated 1.7% 241, % +10,529 College-Educated 9.2% 11,77-5.5% -6,960 Non-College 10.4% 295,44 43.% +9,920 Non-College 20.7% 57,237 9.% +52,254 Families 12.7% 110, % +53,624 Families 17.7% 154, % -17,711 Families in Poverty 6.% 10,51-4.1% -452 Families in Poverty 33.7% 52,42 54.% +1,59 Non-Poor Families 14.0% 99, % +54,076 Non-Poor Families 14.2% 101, % -36,300 Single Mothers 6.% 5, % +1,29 Single Mothers 33.6% 29, % +12,777 Children (Under 1) 12.4% 21, % +104,636 Children (Under 1) 1.% 330,32-1.7% -5,561 Young Adults (1-34) 12.7% 202, % +7,919 Young Adults (1-34) 19.2% 307, % -16,370 Adults (35 to 64) 13.1% 327, % +169,69 Adults (35 to 64) 16.5% 412, % +23,64 Seniors (65 and up) 10.6% 6,33 2.0% +30,03 Seniors (65 and up) 16.% 10, % +2,437 U.S.-Born 13.0% 652, % +307,519 U.S.-Born 16.1% 11,01-3.4% -2,297 Foreign-Born 11.1% 164, % +6,065 Foreign-Born 23.4% 347, % +5,679 Owner Units 14.2% 191, % +103,929 Owner Units 12.% 172, % -15,643 Renter Units 11.0% 97, % +34,201 Renter Units 25.3% 223,9 9.9% +20,219 Vacant Units 11.6% 26, % +10,502 Vacant Units 22.6% 51, % +19,694 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 26.1% 1,697, % +64, % 1,950, % +5,427 Low-Income 17.7% 391, % +33,455 Low-Income 42.6% 944, % +252,246 Poverty 17.9% 175, % +19,100 Poverty 44.% 441, % +14,152 Extreme Poverty 1.5% 73, % +663 Extreme Poverty 43.4% 171, % +3,04 American Indian 25.9% 3, % +342 American Indian 31.6% 3, % -09 Asian 2.% 134, % +106,53 Asian 21.7% 101, % +1,097 Black 24.0% 262, % +3,712 Black 31.0% 33,542-2.% -9,704 Hispanic 21.5% 505,92 65.% +200,723 Hispanic 39.0% 920, % +270,117 White 30.% 760, % +275,700 White 22.6% 557, % -201,34 College-Educated 34.3% 441, % +20,906 College-Educated 20.9% 269,02 0.7% +1,77 Non-College 23.4% 665, % +194,14 Non-College 33.4% 94,475 9.% +4,376 Families 26.2% 22, % +3,07 Families 29.2% 254, % -34,323 Families in Poverty 16.1% 25, % +363 Families in Poverty 46.9% 73, % +23,534 Non-Poor Families 2.4% 202,99 6.% +2,724 Non-Poor Families 25.4% 11, % -57,57 Single Mothers 16.3% 14, % +2,912 Single Mothers 47.2% 40, % +17,516 Children (Under 1) 25.7% 453, % +16,195 Children (Under 1) 30.4% 536,39-4.5% -25,432 Young Adults (1-34) 25.1% 401, % +14,696 Young Adults (1-34) 30.5% 4, % -11,342 Adults (35 to 64) 27.1% 679,63 74.% +290,992 Adults (35 to 64) 2.% 722, % +34,523 Seniors (65 and up) 25.3% 162,71.1% +76,224 Seniors (65 and up) 31.6% 203, % +59,776 U.S.-Born 27.0% 1,357, % +522,592 U.S.-Born 2.3% 1,423, % -30,92 Foreign-Born 22.% 339, % +162,322 Foreign-Born 35.5% 527, % +9,337 Owner Units 29.1% 391, % +16,565 Owner Units 25.4% 342,753-4.% -17,34 Renter Units 22.0% 194, % +67,4 Renter Units 37.2% 329, % +33,17 Vacant Units 23.5% 53, % +21,637 Vacant Units 35.5% 0, % +30,774 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census. 4

5 TABLES FOR CENTRAL CITY ONLY - Houston ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline 12.0% 263, % +32, % 636, % +13,612 Low-Income.0% 7, % -27,112 Low-Income 40.6% 397, % +96,531 Poverty.5% 40, % -11,107 Poverty 42.5% 200, % +69,265 Extreme Poverty.9% 17, % -6,669 Extreme Poverty 40.9% 7, % +20,2 American Indian 11.1% % -26 American Indian 31.4% 1,033.5% +1 Asian 9.4% 13, % +9,317 Asian 25.3% 37,34-2.1% -09 Black 11.0% 52, % -7,07 Black 29.7% 142, % -24,51 Hispanic 9.1% 7, % -5,329 Hispanic 37.3% 360, % +90,764 White 1.7% 104, % +33,637 White 15.3% 5, % -49,921 College-Educated 20.4% 90, % +51,972 College-Educated 14.7% 65, % -5,99 Non-College 10.6% 102,229-9.% -11,147 Non-College 33.0% 31,699 9.% +2,555 Families 9.1% 24, % -1,56 Families 31.7% 4, % -9,055 Families in Poverty 6.7% 5, % -2,090 Families in Poverty 45.4% 33, % +11,506 Non-Poor Families 10.1% 19,437 2.% +522 Non-Poor Families 26.4% 50,935-2.% -20,561 Single Mothers 7.0% 3, % -123 Single Mothers 43.3% 1, % +7,705 Children (Under 1).4% 46, % -6,529 Children (Under 1) 33.4% 14, % +520 Young Adults (1-34) 14.1% 7, % +1,05 Young Adults (1-34) 29.0% 179, % -1,137 Adults (35 to 64) 12.9% 103, % +19,014 Adults (35 to 64) 27.4% 220, % +20,193 Seniors (65 and up) 11.9% 25,514.3% +1,94 Seniors (65 and up) 24.2% 52, % +11,06 U.S.-Born 13.5% 209, % +29,764 U.S.-Born 26.2% 406,00-3.5% -14,73 Foreign-Born.4% 53,61 5.2% +2,667 Foreign-Born 35.9% 229, % +2,352 Owner Units 15.1% 53, % +14,679 Owner Units 20.9% 74, % -6,419 Renter Units 13.2% 60, % +11,637 Renter Units 32.6% 14, % +7,943 Vacant Units 15.3% 15, % +5,353 Vacant Units 29.7% 30, % +12,644 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 24.1% 527,7 14.1% +65, % 999, % +14,254 Low-Income 1.1% 177, % -2,179 Low-Income 56.5% 553, % +117,721 Poverty 1.5% 7, % -9,966 Poverty 57.6% 271, % +0,460 Extreme Poverty 19.5% 37, % -7,23 Extreme Poverty 55.9% 106, % +19,965 American Indian 17.1% % -347 American Indian 46.5% 1, % -297 Asian 17.6% 26, % +14,023 Asian 40.4% 59,31-1.9% -1,146 Black 23.4% 112, % -3,26 Black 46.6% 223, % -2,657 Hispanic 20.6% 199,600 9.% +17,77 Hispanic 53.4% 516, % +124,423 White 32.5% 11, % +35,24 White 32.9% 13, % -7,549 College-Educated 33.% 150, % +71,575 College-Educated 30.5% 135,03-2.2% -3,026 Non-College 22.2% 213,96-0.1% -224 Non-College 49.9% 42,161.1% +36,002 Families 21.4% 57, % -2,226 Families 4.4% 129, % -1,163 Families in Poverty 16.5% 12, % -2,561 Families in Poverty 60.6% 45, % +13,123 Non-Poor Families 23.3% 45, % +335 Non-Poor Families 43.7% 4, % -31,26 Single Mothers 17.7% 7, % +637 Single Mothers 59.2% 25, % +9,97 Children (Under 1) 20.% 114,9-4.1% -4,941 Children (Under 1) 50.5% 279, % -10,50 Young Adults (1-34) 25.1% 155, % +24,42 Young Adults (1-34) 42.% 265,01-7.6% -21,707 Adults (35 to 64) 25.4% 204, % +36,1 Adults (35 to 64) 44.% 359, % +23,974 Seniors (65 and up) 24.% 53, % +,70 Seniors (65 and up) 44.4% 95, % +22,133 U.S.-Born 26.1% 403, % +50,467 U.S.-Born 43.2% 669,59-3.4% -23,64 Foreign-Born 19.4% 123, % +14,906 Foreign-Born 51.6% 329, % +3,109 Owner Units 2.9% 102, % +19,192 Owner Units 40.6% 144, % -9,259 Renter Units 23.3% 106, % +20,31 Renter Units 45.0% 205, % +12,042 Vacant Units 25.3% 26,1 64.5% +10,273 Vacant Units 43.4% 44, % +1,50 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census. 5

6 TABLES FOR REGIONAL SUBURBS - Houston Region ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline 12.% 553, % +361, % 522, % +16,77 Low-Income 7.6% 94, % +30,559 Low-Income 20.4% 251, % +7,22 Poverty 7.5% 3, % +14,690 Poverty 21.5% 110, % +44,059 Extreme Poverty.1% 16, % +5,729 Extreme Poverty 19.3% 39, % +9,73 American Indian 16.4% 1, % +62 American Indian 1.0% 1, % +34 Asian 16.9% 53, % +49,701 Asian 5.2% 16,64-5.4% -943 Black 10.6% 64, % +46,331 Black 12.3% 75, % +7,657 Hispanic 10.% 150, % +96,95 Hispanic 1.5% 257, % +9,416 White 14.2% 271, % +15,667 White.6% 164, % -79,169 College-Educated 17.9% 151, % +12,557 College-Educated 6.4% 53,32-1.9% -1,061 Non-College 10.3% 193, % +101,067 Non-College 14.3% 26,53 9.7% +23,699 Families 14.3% 5, % +55,192 Families 11.5% 69, % -,656 Families in Poverty 6.% 5, % +1,63 Families in Poverty 22.% 1, % +7,03 Non-Poor Families 15.4% 0, % +53,554 Non-Poor Families 9.7% 50, % -15,739 Single Mothers 6.6% 2, % +1,421 Single Mothers 24.0% 10, % +5,072 Children (Under 1) 14.2% 172, % +111,165 Children (Under 1) 12.1% 146, % -6,01 Young Adults (1-34) 11.% 115, % +69,34 Young Adults (1-34) 13.0% 127, % +1,767 Adults (35 to 64) 13.1% 223, % +150,55 Adults (35 to 64) 11.3% 192, % +3,671 Seniors (65 and up) 10.0% 42, % +2,55 Seniors (65 and up) 13.1% 56, % +17,369 U.S.-Born 12.7% 442, % +277,755 U.S.-Born 11.6% 404,21-3.2% -13,559 Foreign-Born 13.1% 111, % +3,39 Foreign-Born 13.9% 117, % +30,327 Owner Units 13.9% 137, % +9,250 Owner Units 9.9% 97, % -9,224 Renter Units.7% 37, % +22,564 Renter Units 17.5% 75, % +12,276 Vacant Units.5% 10,53 94.% +5,149 Vacant Units 16.7% 20, % +7,050 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 27.1% 1,169, % +619, % 951, % +44,173 Low-Income 17.4% 214, % +61,634 Low-Income 31.6% 391, % +134,525 Poverty 17.3%, % +29,066 Poverty 33.0% 169, % +67,692 Extreme Poverty 17.6% 36, % +,46 Extreme Poverty 31.6% 64, % +1,39 American Indian 29.2% 2, % +69 American Indian 25.9% 2, % -512 Asian 33.9% 10, % +92,560 Asian 13.1% 41, % +2,243 Black 24.5% 150, % +7,53 Black 1.7% 115, % +1,953 Hispanic 22.0% 306, % +12,46 Hispanic 29.0% 403, % +145,694 White 30.3% 57, % +240,452 White 19.6% 374, % -123,25 College-Educated 34.5% 291, % +209,331 College-Educated 15.9% 134, % +4,13 Non-College 24.1% 451, % +194,372 Non-College 24.9% 466, % +4,374 Families 2.3% 170, % +5,313 Families 20.7% 124, % -16,160 Families in Poverty 15.% 12, % +2,924 Families in Poverty 34.3% 27, % +10,411 Non-Poor Families 30.3% 157, % +2,39 Non-Poor Families 1.6% 96,6-21.5% -26,571 Single Mothers 15.0% 6, % +2,275 Single Mothers 35.5% 15, % +7,53 Children (Under 1) 2.0% 33, % +173,136 Children (Under 1) 21.3% 257,06-5.5% -14,924 Young Adults (1-34) 25.1% 246, % +124,26 Young Adults (1-34) 22.% 223, % +10,365 Adults (35 to 64) 2.0% 475, % +254,111 Adults (35 to 64) 21.3% 362,25 3.0% +10,549 Seniors (65 and up) 25.5% 109, % +67,444 Seniors (65 and up) 25.2% 10, % +37,643 U.S.-Born 27.5% 953,2 9.0% +472,125 U.S.-Born 21.7% 753, % -7,064 Foreign-Born 25.4% 215, % +147,416 Foreign-Born 23.3% 197, % +51,22 Owner Units 29.1% 29, % +149,373 Owner Units 20.0% 19, % -,125 Renter Units 20.6%, % +47,503 Renter Units 29.0% 124, % +21,145 Vacant Units 22.1% 27, % +11,364 Vacant Units 2.9% 36, % +12,266 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census. 6

7 HOUSTON (CENTRAL) REGION: Gentrification and Economic Decline by Census Tract with Net Change in Low Income Population, Economic expansion/decline is defined if a tract has a +/- 10% change in middlehigh-income population and a -/+ 5% change in low-income population share, Tomball respectively. Economic Decline: Abandonment: MONTGOMERY < -700 Low Income Economic Expansion: Low Income Displacement: (2) (20) -1 to -699 Low Income 69 Low Income Concentration: < -700 Low Income (12) -1 to -699 Low Income (72) LINCOLN DENTON Overall Growth: 1 to 699 Low Income (115) 1 to 699 Low Income (20) > 700 Low Income (107) > 700 Low Income (16) HARRIS Humble 290 Jersey Village Miles 610 Hilshire Vil. Spring Valley Vil. Hedwig V. Hunters Creek Bunker Hill Vil. Vil. Piney Point Vil Jacinto City Baytown Galena Park West University Place Bellaire Deer Park Southside Place Meadows Place ALT 90 Stafford Houston 610 South Houston Morgan's Point La Porte 146 Pasadena Shoreacres ALT Sugar Land Missouri City Brookside Village FORT BEND Thompsons 146 Arcola Galveston Bay Nassau Bay Webster Clear Lake Shores Kemah Friendswood 7 Manvel La Marque Hitchcock El Lago Seabrook CHAMBERS Texas City Bayou Vista 45 Pearland 2 Galveston Bay Taylor Lake Village League City 6 Dickinson GALVESTON Tiki Island 45 Iowa Colony Galveston Gulf of Mexico BRAZORIA GALVESTON Alvin Hillcrest Santa Fe Data Sources: Geolytics, U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 SF3; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey (5-year data). 7