Gentrification is rare in the Orlando region, while a moderate number of neighborhoods are strongly declining.

Transcription

1 ORLANDO REGION Gentrification is rare in the Orlando region, while a moderate number of neighborhoods are strongly declining. One in four regional residents live in an area that experienced strong decline since In that span, these areas low-income population has increased by 56 percent, or over 100,000 people. They have also undergone racial transition, adding 28,000 black residents and 65,000 Hispanic residents a 31 percent and 59 percent increase, respectively. Simultaneously, they have lost about 80,000 white residents, representing a 20 percent decline. The result of these trends is significant poverty concentration in areas like East Orlando and Rosemount. The suburbs account for the bulk of concentration in the region. There is some strong economic expansion in the Orlando region, particularly in downtown Orlando, and outlying communities like Paradise Heights. Approximately 13 percent of residents in Orlando proper live in a strongly expanding neighborhood. However, there is no net displacement from these areas, which have added new population from across the demographic and economic spectrum. Regional Total Population: 2,328,508 Regional Low-Income Population: 866,181 Regional Nonwhite Population: 1,172,88 Central City Population: 256,671 Central City Low-Income Population: 113,52 Central City Nonwhite Population: 155,698 NET DISPLACEMENT (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Expansion, ) Central City: No net displacement (+1,901) Suburbs: No net displacement (+,067) NET CONCENTRATION (Low-Income Change in Tracts with Strong Decline, ) Central City: 1,669 Suburbs: 87,61 1

2 DETAILS ON TABLES The following tables depict aggregated population and housing change in two categories of neighborhoods across the metropolitan area, its central cities, and its suburbs. The categories are: Economically expanding neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with growth and displacement. These are neighborhoods where the low-income * share of population has fallen since 2000 (indicating that an area has grown less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has grown since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents see the area as an attractive place to live). Economically declining neighborhoods, which are those experiencing the kind of population changes associated with abandonment and poverty concentration. These are neighborhoods where the lowincome share of population has grown since 2000 (indicating that an area has more less poor overall) and the absolute number of non-low-income residents has fallen since 2000 (indicating that middle-income residents do not see the area as an attractive place to live). Two variants of this measure exist, and a separate table is provided for each. They are: In the upper set of tables, a strong, narrow measure, which only includes census tracts that have a change of +/-5 percent or greater in low-income population share, and a change of +/-10 percent for nonlow-income population. This approach classifies fewer neighborhoods overall, excluding areas with only small changes in their income profile. This is the more robust and preferred measure. It is also the measure used in the accompanying maps. In the lower set of tables, a weak, broad measure, which includes all census tracts with any change that meet the criteria for the two categories above, with no cutoffs for scale. This approach classifies more neighborhoods overall, but is noisier, because it includes tracts with very small population changes. In addition, because this report relies on American Community Survey sampling data with margins of error, this measure is more likely to include erroneously classified tracts. However, this broad measure can provide a useful outer estimate of the scale of neighborhood economic expansion and decline. Three sets of tables are provided. They are: Figures for the entire metropolitan region, aggregating central cities and suburbs into one set of tables. Figures for central cities. Figures for suburban areas, defined as any area in the metropolitan region not included in a central city. This includes incorporated and unincorporated communities. Each table depicts the number of people in each of the two neighborhood categories, both overall and in various population subsets. It also shows the number of housing units of various types in each neighborhood category Share indicates what share of the regional, city, or suburban population of a given group live in expanding or declining tracts. The box is shaded in accordance with the size of the share Total indicates the absolute number of individuals in a given group that live in expanding or declining census tracts. Net Change since 2000 indicates the change of population of a subgroup in expanding or declining tracts since 2000, both in percentage and in absolute terms. These have been colored to indicate the type of change. In economically expanding tracts, green indicates net growth while blue indicates net displacement. In economically declining tracts, red indicates net poverty concentration while purple indicates net abandonment. Darker shades indicate larger percentage changes. * For the purposes of this report, low-income is classified as individuals at 200 percent of poverty line or less. 2

3 DETAILS ON MAPS Neighborhood change has also been mapped by individual census tracts, incorporating the same data used to create the tables above. The map incorporates the strong measure of neighborhood change used to create the tables. In the maps, tracts have been subdivided into four categories: Economically expanding areas with low-income displacement, indicated in blue, where a neighborhood s income profile is improving while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places undergoing changes traditionally associated with gentrification, in which economic pressures push out lower incomes while higher income residents arrive. Economically expanding areas with overall growth, indicated in green, where a neighborhood s income profile is improving while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places with significant new housing construction, where residents across the income spectrum are arriving. Economically declining areas with abandonment, indicated in purple, where a neighborhood s income profile is worsening while low-income population declines on net. These are typically places experiencing the worst neighborhood economic decline, with people across the income spectrum leaving and outright depopulation occurring. Economically declining areas with poverty concentration, indicated in red, where a neighborhood s income profile is worsening while low-income population increases on net. These are typically places where higher-income flight and eroding housing stocks are causing rapid demographic and economic transition, contributing to the impoverishment of the area. The categories are also shaded to indicate the scale of low-income population change within the census tracts. The maps allow intra-regional comparisons of observed neighborhood change. However, because these classifications have been made using American Community Survey data with margins of error, precise measures are not possible and it is likely that some individual tracts are erroneously classified. As a consequence, readers are advised to focus more on clusters of tracts undergoing similar changes rather than individual outliers, particularly outliers with smaller-scale changes. 3

4 TABLES FOR METROPOLITAN AREA - Orlando Region ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline.2% 97, % +2, % 582,630 2.% +13,800 Low-Income 3.5% 29, % +5,968 Low-Income 32.7% 283, % +102,310 Poverty 3.7% 13, % +3,169 Poverty 3.8% 128, % +58,970 Extreme Poverty.0% 6,212 2.% +1,850 Extreme Poverty 32.9% 51, % +19,836 American Indian 2.2% % +5 American Indian 19.9% % -96 Asian.1% 3, % +3,296 Asian 17.8% 16, % +2,063 Black 5.8% 20, % +3,881 Black 33.6% 120, % +28,201 Hispanic 2.8% 18, % +11,05 Hispanic 27.1% 177, % +65,75 White.5% 52,68 76.% +22,716 White 21.9% 253, % -79,576 College-Educated 5.3% 2, % +18,287 College-Educated 18.5% 85, % +8,258 Non-College.0%, % +13,352 Non-College 27.9% 308, % +20,173 Families 3.9% 10, % +3,18 Families 2.2% 61, % -16,919 Families in Poverty 3.0% 1,8-8.1% -130 Families in Poverty 35.% 17,0 59.2% +6,69 Non-Poor Families.1% 8,52 63.% +3,31 Non-Poor Families 21.5%, % -23,388 Single Mothers 3.1% % -188 Single Mothers 37.9% 10, % +3,872 Children (Under 18).0% 20, % +7,557 Children (Under 18) 2.5% 128, % -16,200 Young Adults (18-3) 3.9% 22, % +10,875 Young Adults (18-3) 26.2% 152, % +3,803 Adults (35 to 6).1% 36, % +16,603 Adults (35 to 6) 2.6% 222,091.9% +10,399 Seniors (65 and up) 5.3% 16, % +7,90 Seniors (65 and up) 25.1% 80, % +16,13 U.S.-Born.3% 8, % +33,990 U.S.-Born 25.0% 83,557-1.% -6,975 Foreign-Born 3.5% 13, % +8,399 Foreign-Born 25.2% 99, % +20,783 Owner Units.8% 23, % +9,731 Owner Units 23.0% 113, % -18,020 Renter Units.2% 13, % +5,806 Renter Units 30.2% 98, % +13,3 Vacant Units 5.8% 9, % +6,366 Vacant Units 23.9% 38, % +21,127 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 11.1% 258, % +11, % 889,269.3% +37,00 Low-Income 8.3% 72,205 6.% +22,870 Low-Income 5.8% 396, % +13,051 Poverty 8.1% 29, % +11,281 Poverty 7.7% 175, % +79,377 Extreme Poverty 8.2% 12,757 6.% +,999 Extreme Poverty 6.6% 72, % +29,508 American Indian 8.1% % -153 American Indian 30.9% 1, % -1,317 Asian 12.0% 11, % +9,55 Asian 27.9% 26, % +,00 Black 10.% 37,31 7.5% +12,030 Black 7.5% 169, % +2,317 Hispanic 7.9% 51, % +3,52 Hispanic 38.2% 250, % +99,186 White 13.0% 150, % +5,137 White 36.1% 17,1-20.7% -109,282 College-Educated 1.0% 6, % +3,530 College-Educated 32.% 19, % +18,371 Non-College 10.5% 116, % +0,611 Non-College 1.3% 56,376 7.% +31,276 Families 10.9% 27, % +9,02 Families 36.7% 93, % -21,83 Families in Poverty 7.3% 3, % +73 Families in Poverty 8.1% 23, % +8,750 Non-Poor Families 11.7% 2, % +8,290 Non-Poor Families 3.0% 70, % -30,593 Single Mothers 6.6% 1, % +266 Single Mothers 51.2% 1, % +5,006 Children (Under 18) 10.8% 56, % +21,018 Children (Under 18) 36.7% 191, % -20,175 Young Adults (18-3) 10.1% 58, % +28,080 Young Adults (18-3) 39.7% 230, % +15,150 Adults (35 to 6) 11.5% 103, % +6,5 Adults (35 to 6) 37.8% 31,639 6.% +20,52 Seniors (65 and up) 12.3% 39, 90.% +18,731 Seniors (65 and up) 39.0% 12, % +21,72 U.S.-Born 11.% 220, % +89,758 U.S.-Born 38.3% 71, % -82 Foreign-Born 9.5% 37, % +2,569 Foreign-Born 37.5% 17, % +37,836 Owner Units 13.0% 63, % +25,268 Owner Units 36.1% 177, % -26,265 Renter Units 9.3% 30, % +13,306 Renter Units.9% 15, % +22,825 Vacant Units 12.9% 20, % +1,75 Vacant Units 35.5% 56, % +30,515 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census.

5 TABLES FOR CENTRAL CITY ONLY - Orlando ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline 12.6% 32, % +16, % 86, % +1,836 Low-Income 7.7% 8, % +1,901 Low-Income 3.1% 8, % +1,669 Poverty 9.3%, % +1,85 Poverty 5.6% 23, % +8,587 Extreme Poverty 10.9% 2, % +1,057 Extreme Poverty 3.1% 9,1 0.2% +2,700 American Indian 10.3% % +22 American Indian 6.7% % -25 Asian 19.5% 1, % +1,370 Asian 17.7% 1, % +337 Black 7.%, % +1,986 Black 51.3% 33, % +,180 Hispanic 9.0% 6, % +3,757 Hispanic 33.2% 2, % +8,667 White 18.1% 18, % +8,789 White 25.3% 25, % -9,985 College-Educated 20.5% 11, % +9,225 College-Educated 21.2% 12, % +1,606 Non-College 9.5% 11, % +2,338 Non-College 37.9% 5,08 2.7% +1,192 Families 11.3% 3, % +1,29 Families 35.2% 10, % -1,502 Families in Poverty 6.6% % +8 Families in Poverty 7.7% 3, % +53 Non-Poor Families 12.8% 2, % +1,35 Non-Poor Families 31.3% 6, % -2,05 Single Mothers 7.0% % +85 Single Mothers 50.9% 2, % +170 Children (Under 18) 12.6% 6, % +3,732 Children (Under 18) 37.7% 20,708-5.% -1,188 Young Adults (18-3) 11.3% 8, % +,695 Young Adults (18-3) 28.7% 22, % -20 Adults (35 to 6) 13.3% 12, % +6,608 Adults (35 to 6) 33.% 32, % +1,865 Seniors (65 and up) 13.8% 3, % +1,185 Seniors (65 and up) 3.1% 11, % +1,373 U.S.-Born 13.2% 27, % +13,292 U.S.-Born 35.6% 7,39-0.6% -7 Foreign-Born 9.8%, % +2,977 Foreign-Born 26.3% 12, % +2,308 Owner Units 16.% 6, % +2,970 Owner Units 3.7% 13, % -3,208 Renter Units 11.6% 7, % +3,831 Renter Units 30.1% 20, % +2,733 Vacant Units 1.3% 2, % +1,99 Vacant Units 29.1% 5, % +2,176 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 1.5% 37, % +17, % 128, % +,8 Low-Income 8.6% 9, % +2,031 Low-Income 58.5% 66,39 2.% +19,73 Poverty 10.3% 5, % +2,00 Poverty 59.7% 30, % +10,902 Extreme Poverty 12.1% 2,63 77.% +1,19 Extreme Poverty 56.8% 12,02 3.1% +3,156 American Indian 10.3% % +5 American Indian 35.6% % -193 Asian 21.9% 1, % +1,515 Asian 27.1% 2,33 -.3% -10 Black 7.6%, % +1,966 Black 62.% 0, % +7,739 Hispanic 10.1% 7, % +,338 Hispanic 7.1% 35, % +12,332 White 21.6% 21, % +9,273 White 6.3% 6, % -1,589 College-Educated 25.0% 1, % +10,388 College-Educated 38.8% 22, % +2,669 Non-College 11.0% 13, % +2,98 Non-College 5.3% 6, % +2,250 Families 11.7% 3,33 73.% +1,11 Families 52.1% 1, % -980 Families in Poverty 7.3% % +122 Families in Poverty 59.%, % +635 Non-Poor Families 13.1% 2, % +1,289 Non-Poor Families 9.8% 10, % -1,615 Single Mothers 7.0% % +80 Single Mothers 6.6% 2, % +320 Children (Under 18) 12.9% 7, % +3,725 Children (Under 18) 52.% 28, % -38 Young Adults (18-3) 1.0% 11, % +5,31 Young Adults (18-3) 5.6% 36, % -50 Adults (35 to 6) 15.3% 1, % +7,209 Adults (35 to 6) 9.5% 7,6 9.1% +3,9 Seniors (65 and up) 16.3%, % +1,219 Seniors (65 and up) 60.0% 15, % +1,276 U.S.-Born 15.3% 32, % +1,303 U.S.-Born 51.7% 108,0 0.1% +1 Foreign-Born 10.8% 5, % +3,213 Foreign-Born 2.8% 20, % +,302 Owner Units 19.1% 7, % +3,289 Owner Units 51.6% 19, % -3,963 Renter Units 1.6% 9, % +,239 Renter Units 7.8% 31, % +3,363 Vacant Units 16.7% 2, % +2,231 Vacant Units 5.2% 7, % +3,357 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census. 5

6 TABLES FOR REGIONAL SUBURBS - Orlando Region ECONOMICALLY EXPANDING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Expansion ECONOMICALLY DECLINING NEIGHBORHOODS Experiencing Strong Economic Decline 3.2% 65, % +26, % 95,75 2.5% +11,96 Low-Income 2.8% 21, % +,067 Low-Income 31.2% 23, % +87,61 Poverty 2.8% 8, % +1,32 Poverty 33.1% 10, % +50,383 Extreme Poverty 2.8% 3, % +793 Extreme Poverty 31.2% 1, % +17,136 American Indian 1.1% % -17 American Indian 21.7% % -701 Asian 2.5% 2, % +1,926 Asian 17.8% 15, % +1,726 Black 5.% 15, % +1,895 Black 29.7% 86, % +2,021 Hispanic 2.0% 11, % +7,297 Hispanic 26.3% 152, % +56,808 White 3.2% 3, % +13,927 White 21.6% 227, % -69,591 College-Educated 3.1% 12, % +9,062 College-Educated 18.1% 73, % +6,652 Non-College 3.% 33, % +11,01 Non-College 26.7% 263,55 7.8% +18,981 Families 3.0% 6, % +1,755 Families 22.8% 51, % -15,17 Families in Poverty 2.% 1, % -21 Families in Poverty 33.% 1, % +5,926 Non-Poor Families 3.1% 5, % +1,969 Non-Poor Families 20.3% 37, % -21,33 Single Mothers 2.% % -273 Single Mothers 35.5% 8, % +3,702 Children (Under 18) 3.0% 13, % +3,825 Children (Under 18) 23.0% 107, % -15,012 Young Adults (18-3) 2.8% 13, % +6,180 Young Adults (18-3) 25.8% 129,331 3.% +,223 Adults (35 to 6) 3.0% 2, % +9,995 Adults (35 to 6) 23.5% 190,071.7% +8,53 Seniors (65 and up).5% 13, % +6,305 Seniors (65 and up) 23.5% 68, % +1,770 U.S.-Born 3.3% 56, % +20,698 U.S.-Born 23.7% 09, % -6,501 Foreign-Born 2.6% 9, % +5,22 Foreign-Born 25.0% 86, % +18,75 Owner Units 3.8% 17, % +6,761 Owner Units 22.1% 100, % -1,812 Renter Units 2.2% 5, % +1,975 Renter Units 30.2% 78, % +10,701 Vacant Units.8% 6, % +,17 Vacant Units 23.2% 33, % +18,951 with Any Indicators of Economic Expansion* with Any Indicators of Economic Decline* 10.7% 220, % +96, % 760,89.5% +32,556 Low-Income 8.3% 62,9 50.0% +20,839 Low-Income 3.9% 330, % +123,308 Poverty 7.7% 2, % +9,21 Poverty 5.8% 1, % +68,75 Extreme Poverty 7.5% 10, % +3,850 Extreme Poverty.9% 60, % +26,352 American Indian 7.8% % -158 American Indian 30.3% % -1,12 Asian 11.0% 9, % +8,039 Asian 28.0% 2, % +,50 Black 11.1% 32,35 5.2% +10,06 Black.1% 128, % +3,578 Hispanic 7.6%, % +30,11 Hispanic 37.1% 21, % +86,85 White 12.2% 128, % +,86 White 35.2% 370, % -9,693 College-Educated 12.% 50, % +33,12 College-Educated 31.5% 127,20 1.1% +15,702 Non-College 10.5% 103, % +38,113 Non-College 39.7% 391, % +29,026 Families 10.8% 2,63 5.2% +7,613 Families 3.8% 78, % -20,863 Families in Poverty 7.3% 3, % +612 Families in Poverty 6.3% 19, % +8,115 Non-Poor Families 11.6% 21, % +7,001 Non-Poor Families 32.2% 59, % -28,978 Single Mothers 6.6% 1, % +186 Single Mothers 8.7% 11, % +,686 Children (Under 18) 10.5% 9, % +17,293 Children (Under 18) 3.9% 163, % -19,737 Young Adults (18-3) 9.5% 7, % +22,766 Young Adults (18-3) 38.8% 19, % +15,690 Adults (35 to 6) 11.0% 88,89 79.% +39,335 Adults (35 to 6) 36.% 29, % +16,508 Seniors (65 and up) 12.0% 35, % +17,512 Seniors (65 and up) 37.1% 108, % +20,66 U.S.-Born 10.9% 188, % +75,55 U.S.-Born 36.7% 633, % -968 Foreign-Born 9.3% 32, % +21,356 Foreign-Born 36.8% 127, % +33,53 Owner Units 12.5% 56, % +21,979 Owner Units 3.8% 157,95-12.% -22,302 Renter Units 7.9% 20, % +9,067 Renter Units.2% 11, % +19,62 Vacant Units 12.% 17, % +12,2 Vacant Units 3.3% 8,99 12.% +27,158 *The figures in the lower set of tables may include many neighborhoods with very slight demographic changes, and are especially sensitive to sampling error. These tables are best understood as depicting an aggressive outer estimate of population shifts, as compared to the estimates in the upper set of tables, which are more robustly observed. Data: U.S. Census. 6

7 ORLANDO (CENTRAL) REGION: Gentrification and Economic Decline by Census Tract with Net Change in Low Income Population, Mount Dora LAKE Monroe VOLUSIA Sanford Mary SEMINOLE 17 Apopka Jesup Longwood Winter Springs Casselberry Altamonte Springs 1 Opopka Oviedo Maitland Eatonville Winter Park 29 Oakland Ocoee Winter Garden Orlando Windermere Edgewood Belle Isle 0 Economic expansion/decline is defined if a tract has a +/- 10% change in middle-high-income population and a -/+ 5% change in low-income population share, respectively. Miles Economic528 Decline: Abandonment: ORANGE 29 Bay Buena Vista (1) -1 to -699 Low Income (7) 1 to 699 Low Income N (6) J Low Income Concentration: 17 OSCEOLA < -700 Low Income Kissimmee (68) > 700 Low Income Economic Expansion: Low Income Displacement: < -700 Low Income (0) -1 to -699 Low Income (5) 1 to 699 Low Income (8) > 700 Low Income () Overall Growth: 280 Data Sources: Geolytics, U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 SF3; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey (5-year data). 7