The Popula(on of New York City Recent PaFerns and Trends

Transcription

1 TM The Popula(on of New York City Recent PaFerns and Trends Presenta(on for the Macaulay Honors College of the City University of New York January 28, 2014 Joseph Salvo POPULATION DIVISION

2 New York City is Big and Dynamic

3 Population Change for the 10 Largest Cities in the U.S., 2000 to 2012 Ranked by Population in 2012 Rank Geographic Area Total Population NYC and Boroughs Population Change Number Percent 1 New York, NY* 8,008,278 8,336, , Los Angeles, CA* 3,694,820 3,857, , Chicago, IL 2,896,016 2,714, , Brooklyn, NY 2,465,326 2,565, , Queens, NY* 2,229,379 2,272,771 43, Houston, TX* 1,953,631 2,161, , Manhattan, NY 1,537,195 1,619,090 81, Philadelphia, PA 1,517,550 1,547,607 30, Phoenix, AZ* 1,321,045 1,488, , Bronx, NY 1,332,650 1,408,473 75, San Antonio, TX* 1,144,646 1,383, , San Diego, CA* 1,223,400 1,338, , Dallas, TX* 1,188,580 1,241,108 52, San Jose, CA* 894, ,783 87, *Achieved population peak in 2010 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census PL Files; 2012 American Community Survey

4 Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City Population Change Natural Increase Net Migration Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Thousands Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data ; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene; United States Department of Homeland Security as revised by

5 How the Foreign- Born Define New York City

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7 Total Population by Nativity New York City, 1970 to 2012 Percent Foreign- born ,457,740 1,437, ,401,440 1,670, ,239,633 2,082, ,137,246 2,871, ,200,105 3,136, Native-Born Millions Foreign-Born Source: U.S. Census of Population, 1970 to 2000; 2012 American Community Survey

8 Foreign-Born by Area of the World New York City, Total Foreign-born = 1,437,058 1,670,199 2,082,931 2,871,032 3,059, % 80% 60% 40% All others Africa Europe Caribbean, nonhispanic Asia Latin America 20% 0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, censuses; 2011 American Community Survey-Summary File

9 Top Ten Sources of the Foreign-born Population New York City and the United States, 2012 New York City United States Dominican Republic 13.0% Mexico 28.2% All Other 44.6% China* 11.2% Mexico 5.8% Jamaica 5.7% All Other 40.6% China* 5.6% Colombia 2.5% India 2.6% Haiti 3.2% Trinidad & Tobago 2.9% Ecuador 4.1% Guyana 4.5% Guatemala 2.2% Dominican Republic 2.4% Korea 2.7% Cuba 2.7% India 4.8% Philippines 4.6% Vietnam 3.1% El Salvador 3.1% Total = 3,154,955 * Includes the mainland, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Total = 40,738,224 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample

10 Total and Foreign-born Population New York City and Boroughs, 2000 and Change Number Number Number Percent New York City Total Population 8,008,278 8,244, , Foreign-born 2,871,032 3,066, , Bronx Total Population 1,332,650 1,392,002 59, Foreign-born 385, ,136 85, Brooklyn Total Population 2,465,326 2,532,645 67, Foreign-born 931, ,511 14, Manhattan Total Population 1,537,195 1,601,948 64, Foreign-born 452, ,325 8, Queens Total Population 2,229,379 2,247,848 18, Foreign-born 1,028,339 1,089,187 60, Staten Island Total Population 443, ,467 26, Foreign-born 72,657 98,440 25, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census-Summary File 3; 2011 American Community Survey-Summary File

11 Total and Foreign-born Population New York City and Boroughs, 2000 and Number Percent Number Percent New York City Total Population 8,008, ,244, Foreign-born 2,871, ,066, Bronx Total Population 1,332, ,392, Foreign-born 385, , Brooklyn Total Population 2,465, ,532, Foreign-born 931, , Manhattan Total Population 1,537, ,601, Foreign-born 452, , Queens Total Population 2,229, ,247, Foreign-born 1,028, ,089, Staten Island Total Population 443, , Foreign-born 72, , Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census-Summary File 3; 2011 American Community Survey-Summary File

12 Top Five Countries of Birth New York City and Boroughs, 2011 All Others 60.0% Dom. Rep. 12.4% China 11.4% New York City Jamaica 5.5% Guyana 4.6% Mexico 6.1% Ghana 4.3% Ecuador 4.7% All Others 37.7% Mexico 9.0% Bronx Jamaica 11.2% Dom. Rep. 33.1% All Others 61.3% Brooklyn China 13.7% Tr. & Tob. 5.3% Jamaica 7.4% Haiti 6.5% Dom. Rep. 5.8% All Others 49.9% Ecuador 3.4% U. K. 3.6% Manhattan Dom. Rep. 23.8% China 14.3% Mexico 5.2% All Others 61.7% Queens China 13.1% Guyana 7.6% Ecuador 6.7% Mexico 5.7% Dom. Rep. 5.2% All Others 69.0% Staten Island Mexico 8.0% Italy 7.3% China 6.4% India 5.6% Russia 3.7%

13 Top 20 Neighborhoods of Residence of the Foreign-born New York City, Total Foreign-born Population Number Percent Total, New York City 8,128,980 2,989, Washington Heights 162,898 80, Bensonhurst 144,159 77, Elmhurst 108,556 77, Corona 103,210 66, Jackson Heights 105,859 65, Sunset Park 123,790 64, Flushing 94,418 63, Flatbush 105,940 51, Crown Heights 141,067 49, Bushwick 131,250 48, South Ozone Park 78,381 45, Concourse-Concourse Village 102,401 41, Forest Hills 83,728 41, Canarsie 84,244 39, East New York 119,236 36, Richmond Hill 63,201 36, Astoria 74,859 33, Prospect Lefferts Gardens-Wingate 69,331 32, Hunters Point-Sunnyside-West Maspeth 60,009 31, Borough Park 106,816 31, All Other 6,065,627 1,976, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey-Summary File

14 Foreign-born by Neighborhood* New York City, Bronx 471, % New York City Total = 3,066,599 (2011 Data) Manhattan Foreign-born 40,000 or more (13 neighborhoods) 461, % Queens 1,089, % 30,000 to 39,999 (10) 20,000 to 29,999 (23) 12,000 to 19,999 (41) 9,000 to 11,999 (38) Under 9,000 (57) Brooklyn 946, % Staten Island 98, % *"Neighborhoods," as defined in this study, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, neighborhood boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent actual neighborhoods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011 and American Community Survey-Summary File

15 Changes in the Popula(on Dynamic on the Horizon?

16 Estimated Components of Population Change (Annualized) New York City Population Change Natural Increase Thousands Net Migration Net International Migration Net Domestic Migration Thousands Sources: Adjusted U.S. Decennial Census data ; New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene; United States Department of Homeland Security as revised by

17 Migration Patterns for Persons Filing Tax Returns New York City, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 In Migration Out Migration 20, Migration data are based on year-to-year address changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the IRS. Does not include the income tax returns filed by those living abroad. Source: Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue Service

18 Immigra(on stats don't tell whole story By GREG DAVID Jan 12, 2014 When New York's Department of City Planning last month issued a third edi(on of its look at immigra(on, the headlines trumpeted "a wave of newcomers" and highlighted the fact that foreign- born New Yorkers now top 3 million, a record The more important revela(on was buried in the last chapter: Although the total number of immigrants con(nues to rise, the number arriving each year is falling significantly. Since 2000, says City Planning, foreign- born arrivals have fallen by 25% a year, to about 67,000. The city's popula(on is con(nuing to grow because more people are moving to New York from elsewhere in the country than they have in decades, and they have more than made up for the shorzall in immigrants.

19 Immigra(on stats don't tell whole story By GREG DAVID Jan 12, 2014 Just as interes(ng, immigrants and people who move here from other places in the United States are be\er educated and make more money. Anecdotally, it is obvious that much of the domes(c influx consists of college graduates coming to make their marks in the Big Apple not only on Wall Street, but also in tech and in other crea(ve industries. The same trend holds true for those from abroad, reflec(ng the growing percentage of arrivals from Asia, and especially India, who have already graduated from college...

20 Changing Origins of In-migrants to New York City, and Abroad 49.8% 50 States & Puerto Rico 50.2% Abroad 33.2% 50 States & Puerto Rico 66.8% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample

21 Non-Family Households with a Head of Household Under 65 Years by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City 2010 Change 2000 to 2010 New York City Total = 30.5% Percent Change 55.0% or more Gain of 2,000 or more 45.0% to 54.9% 1,000 to 1, % to 44.9% 25.0% to 34.9% Less than 25.0% * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. 250 to to to -250 Loss of 1,000 or more Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 and 2010 Censuses-Summary File 1

22 Changes and Persistent Challenges

23 Population Growth by Race/Hispanic Origin New York City, Percent Change = ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0 Black nonhispanic White nonhispanic Asian nonhispanic Hispanic Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: 2000 Censuses-Summary File 1; 2012 American Community Survey

24 Hispanic and Asian Subgroups New York City, 2012 Hispanic Asian* Vietnamese 1% Japanese 2% Honduran 2% Salvadoran 2% Colombian 4% Ecuadorian 8% Other 12% Total = 2,377,486 Puerto Rican 31% Pakistani 4% Bangladeshi 5% Filipino 7% Korean 9% Other 5% Total = 1,064,658 Chinese** 48% Mexican 14% Dominican Republic 27% Asian Indian 19% *Includes a small number of Asians who are of Hispanic origin. ** Includes Taiwanese Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey- 3 Year Estimates

25 Persons by English Language Ability New York City, 2012 Speaks language other than English at home 49% 3,833,928 Not English Proficient 1,789,858 23% English Proficient 2,044,070 26% Speaks English at Home 3,962,428 51% Total Persons Ages 5 and Over = 7,796,356 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample

26 Limited English Proficient Population by Language Spoken at Home New York City, 2012 Number Percent Total LEP 1,789, Top LEP Languages Spanish 882, Chinese* 305, Russian 115, French Creole 54, Bengali 44, Korean 43, Italian 26, Polish 24, Arabic 23, * Includes Chinese, Cantonese, Mandarin, and Formosan Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey-Public Use Microdata Sample

27 Percent of Population* Not Proficient in English by Neighborhood Tabulation Area** New York City, Bronx New York City Total = 23.3% Percent Not Proficient in English 40.0% or more 30.0% to 39.9% (22 neighborhoods) (35) Manhattan Queens 20.0% to 29.9% (39) 10.0% to 19.9% (50) Less than 10.0% (49) Brooklyn Staten Island * Population 5 years and over ** Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey-FactFinder

28 Percent College Graduates by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, Bronx New York City Total = 34.0% Percent Bachelor s Degree or Higher 60.0% or more 40.0% to 59.9% (20 neighborhoods) (26) Manhattan Queens 30.0% to 39.9% (34) 20.0% to 29.9% (58) Less than 20.0% (57) Brooklyn Staten Island * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey-FactFinder

29 Poverty Rate by Neighborhood Tabulation Area* New York City, Bronx New York City Total = 19.9% Percent Foreign-born 40.0% or more 25.0% to 39.9% (10 neighborhoods) (44) Manhattan Queens 15.0% to 24.9% (48) 10.0% to 14.9% (48) Less than 10.0% (45) Brooklyn Staten Island * Neighborhood Tabulation Areas or NTAs, are aggregations of census tracts that are subsets of New York City's 55 Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). Primarily due to these constraints, NTA boundaries and their associated names may not definitively represent neighborhoods. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey-FactFinder

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31 Population Projections by Borough New York City, 2010 and 2040 Bronx 1,385,108 1,579, New York City 2010: 8,242, : 9,025,145 % Change: 9.5 Manhattan 1,585,873 1,691, Queens 2,250,002 2,412, Staten Island 468, , Brooklyn 2,552,911 2,840, Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population Projections

32 Projections for the Population 65 and Over by Borough New York City, 2010 and 2040 Bronx 145, , New York City 2010: 1,002, : 1,409,708 % Change: 40.7 Manhattan 214, , Queens 288, , Staten Island 59,344 97, Brooklyn 294, , Sources: 2010 Census Bureau Estimates (DCP adjusted population in BK and QN), 2040 Department of City Planning Population Projections

33 Data Links DCP Popula(on Division Web site: New York City Census Summary File: hfp://gis.nyc.gov/dcp/pa/address.jsp Census Bureau Web site: