DYNAMICS OF THE LATINO ELECTORATE Shaping the 2016 Election

Transcription

1 1 DYNAMICS OF THE LATINO ELECTORATE Shaping the 2016 Election

2 Roundtable 2 Clarissa Martinez De Castro, Deputy VP, Sylia Manzano, Principal, Latino Maria Urbina, VP Politics & Natl Campaigns, Voto Moderator: Fernando Pizarro, Correspondent,

3 Latinos in the U.S. 3 A community 55 million strong One in eery six Americans is Hispanic By 2060, it will be one in three 76% of Latinos are United States Citizens Of those under 18, 93% are USCs One of eery six workers in U.S. is Latino By 2050, it will be one in three

4 The Landscape 4 Latinos oters will play piotal role in 2016 Natl: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Neada, New Mexico, Pennsylania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin Contradictory enironment - solid narratie that Latino support is needed to win the White House, but: Campaign season has taken a decidedly anti-immigrant, anti-latino tone Inestments in nonpartisan Latino oter registration are weak

5 U.S. Voter Growth Rate 5 Numbers from U.S. Census data, NCLR calculations While Latino registration and oting percentages are still lower than other groups, the Latino growth rate in both has been consistently in the double digits By comparison, in that same period, the number of African Americans oting grew by 38% and decreased by 2% for Whites Between 2000 and 2012, the number of Latinos oting grew by 89%

6 Latino Vote Trends 6 Numbers from U.S. Census data NCLR In 2012, Latino support proed essential to winning the presidency and many state and local races In presidential elections, oer 80% of registered Latinos ote In 2016, there are more than 12 million Latinos eligible to register The Latino ote is expected to grow to 13 million* In presidential elections, oter registration is key to unlock full magnitude of the Latino Vote * Projection from NALEO Educational Fund

7 Top States, Latino Vote Share 7 Exit poll margin and U.S. Census data State Electoral Votes POTUS Margin SEN UP Latino Voters, 2012 State Share Number Latino Registered Voters, 2012 State Share Number Latino CVAP unregistered, 2012 (in thousands) New Mexico % 34.85% % California % 23.45% 3, % 3,684 2,826 Texas % 21.87% 1, % 2,652 2,215 Florida % 17.26% 1, % 1, Arizona % 16.58% % Neada % 14.98% % New York % 10.88% % New Jersey % 10.76% % Colorado % 10.38% % Rhode Island % 6.82% % Connecticut % 6.57% % Massachusetts % 5.97% % Illinois % 5.43% % Utah % 4.79% % Washington % 4.38% % Total Electoral Votes 256 Per exit polls, Latino share of 2012 electorate: 10% In 2012, 80% of Latino oters were concentrated in 9 states. In order of Latino otes cast: CA, TX, FL, NY, AZ, NJ, NM, IL and CO 15 states with fastest growth rate in Latino oters: MA, TN, UT, MI, NH, RI, OR, IA, LA, DE, VA, AZ, IN, CO and OH

8 NCLR #Latinos Vote 2016 Campaign 8 Working with Affiliate Network to register and energize Latino community Leeraging policy, polling, programs and communications work to eleate issues of concern to Latino Canassing plans for Florida, Pennsylania and Neada Multi-state serice proider program with NCLR staff training and supporting communitybased organizations to register people in their communities NCLR/MiTu oter registration app and online campaign A high school senior registration curriculum, deeloped with school teachers, students and administrators, to promote in-school registration A phone registration model in partnership with NCLR Affiliates, contacting their clients to help them register to ote.

9 Community Tools 9 Put oter registration in the palm of our community s hand with web tool and Latinos Vote mobile app. Assistance to help incorporate ciic engagement into serices and programs A network of allies to partner with, to open up registration opportunities for those you sere High School Democracy Project curriculum to partner with schools to register their students A one-stop site to find information and assistance

10 Courting the Latino Electorate 10 Latino oter growth will continue If current party trends toward Latinos continue Republicans are facing a shrinking base There will not be an electoral map, and more importantly, an electorate as faorable to current incarnation of the GOP as 2014 Democrats are facing an expanding base, but hae not sealed the deal But they are not fully implementing strategies to capitalize on that opportunity

11 Courting the Latino Electorate 11 Candidates matter deeloping a relationship with community; demonizing immigrants and Hispanics is a losing strategy Issues matter candidates need to define their positions on the issues that matter to the Hispanic community Meaningful outreach is essential lean in, communicate record; significant inestments pay off

12 NCLR s Ciic Engagement Work: Building a Participation Continuum Voter Registration Voter Education Voter Turnout Strengthen ciil society by connecting eligible immigrants to citizenship, citizens to registration and oting, and the community at large to ongoing issue education and adocacy, to achiee transformational policy change Citizenship Assistance & Promotion Issue Education To date, NCLR has registered oer 500,000 oters, through canassing, phonebanking, and working with our affiliates in a serice proider program actie since Issue Adocacy

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14 LATINO VOTERS AND THE 2016 ELECTION Sylia Manzano, PhD Principal Latino Decisions September 8, 2016

15 Immigration Remains High Priority What are the most important issues facing the Latino community that you think Congress and the President should address? What are the most important issues that you think Congress and the President should address? Immigration 38 Economy 36 Economy 32 Immigration 30 Health care 14 Health care 14 Anti-Latino/immigrant discrimination 14 Terrorism 14 Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

16 Faorability Indicators (Net, faorable, and unfaorable reported) Trump Unfaorable Net Obama 74% English 52interiew 73% U.S. Born Net Clinton 39 68% Independents % Cuban Net Kaine 34 Net Pence Faorable Unfaorable Net Trump Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

17 Presidential Vote Clinton 70% Trump 19% Clinton ote 65% English interiew 68% U.S. Born 53% Prior GOP oters 52% Cuban Other candidate 4% Not oting 2% Undecided 5% Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

18 Presidential Candidates Impact Perceptions of Party Do you think Trump/Clinton has made the Republican/ Democratic party: More welcoming to Latinos, More hostile to Latinos, Or had no effect 10 Trump 58 Clinton Trump making GOP more hostile: 72% US Born, 74% 3 rd Gen+ 69% Men, 70% Women 62% Prior GOP oters 61% Cuban 42% Republican More welcoming More hostile No effect Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

19 Presidential Candidates Impact Perceptions of Party Do you think Trump/Clinton has made the Republican/ Democratic party: More welcoming to Latinos, Trump 58 Clinton 70 Clinton making Dems welcoming: 60% Women 60% Know undocumented 44% Prior GOP Voters 27% Republican More hostile to Latinos, Or had no effect More welcoming More hostile No effect Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

20 Voting in 2016: Important Thinking about the upcoming 2016 presidential election, do you feel like it is MORE important that you ote in this election compared to the last presidential election, in 2012? 2016 more important 76 4 Same more important Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

21 Voting in 2016: Enthusiasm Thinking ahead to the Noember 2016 presidential election, would you say you are more enthusiastic about oting in 2016, or that you were more enthusiastic about oting back in 2012? 2016 more enthusiastic more enthusiastic 31 Same 18 Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

22 Reasons Enthusiasm and Importance of Voting Up in 2016 What is different about 2016 that makes more important/ enthusiastic to ote this time? Stop Trump Support Clinton [Asked of the 76% who said 2016 more important, and the 51% who said more enthused in 2016] Support Trump Stop Clinton Important Enthused Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

23 Attention and Engagement How often do you follow news related to the upcoming election? (Including online, social media, TV, radio) How often do talk about the upcoming election with family, friends, or co-workers? (Including in-person, phone, text, online, social media) Daily 41 Daily 24 Seeral times week 37 Seeral times week 34 Few times month 14 Few times month 22 Rare/Neer 7 Rare/Neer 19 Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

24 Contact and Outreach Oer the past few months, did anyone from a campaign, political party, or community organization ask you to ote, or register to ote? No 60 Yes 39 Source: America s Voice/Latino Decisions National Surey August 2016 (N=3,729; MoE +/-1.6%)

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28 Dynamics of the Latino Electorate: Shaping the 2016 Elections PAGE 42

29 Celebrity oices Section 1 - Celebrity Voices Section 2 - Social Media Section 3 - Latino Millennials Section 4 - HHMA Section 5 - VoterPal PAGE 43

30 Section 1 Celebrity Voices Social media Section 2 - Social Media Section 3 - Latino Millennials Section 4 - HHMA Section 5 - VoterPal PAGE 44

31 Section 1 Celebrity Voices Latino Millennials Section 2 - Social Media Section 3 - Latino Millennials Section 4 - HHMA Section 5 - VoterPal PAGE 45

32 Section 1 Celebrity Voices Hispanic Heritage Month of Action Section 2 - Social Media Section 3 - Latino Millennials Section 4 - HHMA Section 5 - VoterPal PAGE 46

33 Section 1 Celebrity Voices VoterPal Section 2 - Social Media Section 3 - Latino Millennials Section 4 - HHMA Section 5 - VoterPal PAGE 47

34 CONTACT US I PAGE 48

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36 50 For more information: Contact: Clarissa Martinez De Castro