Latinos and the Future of American Politics. Marc Rodriguez, History Department, Portland State

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1 Latinos and the Future of American Politics Marc Rodriguez, History Department, Portland State

2 Largest Minority Electoral Block: But Also Very Diverse Since 2008 nearly 30% of Latinos have voted for Republicans (Cubans have a long history of Republican politics) Since 2008 more than 60% of Latinos have voted for Democrats with Mexican ancestry and Puerto Rican voters having a strong history of Democratic political participation (Pew Research Center, 11/29/2016) An estimated million cast ballots Some estimates were as high as 80% of Latinos voting for Democratic candidates in 2016 (Washington Post, 11/11/2016)

3 A look at the Latino Population According to the US Census: The Hispanic population of the United States as of July 1, 2015, making people of Hispanic origin the nation s largest ethnic or racial minority. Hispanics constituted 17.6 percent of the nation s total population. 63.4% Were of Mexican ancestry According to the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (NALEO): Latino elected officials are growing in major metropolitan areas like Los Angeles and Chicago and in states such as California, Texas, Florida, and many other places.

4 Common Issues of Misperception: The Unbearable Newness of Latinos First, there is nothing new about Latinos in the USA While news reports focus on new immigration to the USA, and the issue of undocumented Latinos, Latinos have a long history in the USA The first people we might consider Latinos today were Spanish explorers and mixed ancestry Mestizos who settled in Florida in 1565 and New Mexico in Spanish explorers had mapped out the Atlantic and Pacific coasts before other European powers

5 Much of the US Southwest was once Mexico In the 1830s Immigrants from the USA together with some Mexican citizens rebelled against Mexico and proclaimed an independent Texas Republic in USA annexes Texas and sends troops to the border with Mexico 1848 the USA forces a peace settlement on Mexico after invading the country and an occupation of Mexico City The population of Mexican ancestry people in the Southwest in 1848 was somewhere between ,000 people

6 Jump to the Twentieth Century Mexican Americans as the largest Latino population group organized political and civil rights groups increasingly after the 1920s Most had their roots in Texas The leading organization, the League of United Latin American Citizens restricted its membership to US citizens, held meetings in English, and sought to pay poll taxes register its mainly Mexican American membership to vote. After WW2 other organizations were established such as the American GI Forum to organize veterans for political participation and civil rights efforts

7 The 1960s: Rise of Chicano Politics The Chicano Movement grew from increased social movement activism in the mid 1960s Inspired by the Farm Workers Movement of Cesar Chavez and Dolores Hureta (UFW) Many Communities existed and became organized outside of Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona (key centers of population) such as Yakima, Washington, Denver Colorado, Milwaukee Wisconsin Radical Activism developed as well Brown Berets, and other groups

8 Third Party Politics: La Raza Unida La Raza Unida Party is established in Texas inspired by calls to organize a Chicano political party Focus is on electoral activism in Mexican ancestry majority counties in South Texas Leads to backlash against activists Expands in Texas to field Gubernatorial candidates The Raza Unida candidate Ramsay Muñiz won over 6% of the vote Democrat Dolph Briscoe won, but the Democratic party was now aware of the swing vote potential of organized Mexican American activism. Source: Ignacio Garcia, United We Win: The Rise and Fall of La Raza Unida Party (1989)

9 Thoughts on the Future: Swing Vote Latinos are a significant minority population in states like Wisconsin (almost 400,000), Michigan (almost 500,000), Ohio (400,000+), as well as North Carolina (almost 400,000), Oregon (almost 500,000) and Washington (almost 900,000) states according to Pew While they are or are projected to be a majority or near majority population in California, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona within coming decades according to Pew Looking back at the rhetoric of La Raza Unida Party of 1972

10 Conclusion: Some Thoughts on the Future Latinos are poised to become an important swing vote in the Great Lakes, Southeastern United States, and Pacific Northwest Attention to Latino issues or a lack of attention has the potential to swing votes away from or to candidates In National Elections in places like Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin where 2-5% of the vote really matters, organization and outreach by the political parties is required. Failure to adequately do so can cost an election Example: Hilary Clinton had no field office in the Latino majority districts of Milwaukee, Wisconsin and little presence in smaller communities of Latinos. Clinton lost Wisconsin by.77% (about 23,000 votes)