!Jbc $ar-ictjiw/eagleton POLL
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1 users to properly attribute this copyrighted information to the Star-Ledeer/Eagleton Poll. RELEASE INFORMATION appear in Sunday s Star-Leder. Other newspapers may also use this information in their RELEASE: SL/EP 20-2 (EP 70-2) BOB CARTER FOR RELEASE: SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2, 1988 CONTACT: CLIFF ZUKIN OR A story based on the survey findings presented in this release and background memo will Sunday editions. Electronic media may release after 5:00 p.m. Saturday, October 1. We ask I?L1 TtIEI?..S Bogleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey oacoi 201/ THE STATE UNrRSJTY OF NBW JEPV -more Dukakis. Bush held a three point lead going into the debate. A plurality of 41 percent said that nobody got the best of the debate, with 34 there were few expectations about who would get the better of the encounter going into the definitely or probably would vote in the election--reported watching the debate. Just as finds George Bush holding a 47 to 40 percent lead over his Democratic opponent Michael the undecided to leans to Bush column. The latest Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll, conducted between Monday and Thursday, Two-thirds of the 514 New.Jerseyans surveyed--registered voters who said they apparently have decided to stay with what they now have to move the Garden State from debate, there is no consensus about who actually won. candidate opting to stay with what they have and tilting toward the Vice-President. Right now Bush is getting the benefit of the doubt voters. At this point we are seeing is able to cash in on what New Jerseyans see as a positive eight years of Republican rule. a small amount of additional strength while the debate was inconclusive indicates that he Cliff Zukin, director of the Poll, commented, The fact that George Bush picked up better job while Republicans and those intending to vote for Bush tended to give their man for Bush. Democrats and those intending to vote for Dukakis felt that he had done the the nod. viewer in five felt that either man had won by a lot --13 percent for Dukakis to 8 percent those voters who are not committed to either party and do not feel strongly about either After viewing last Sunday s inconclusive presidential debate, enough New.Jerseyans percent saying Dukakis had won and 26 percent feeling that Bush had done better. Just one NEW JERSEY TILTS TOWARD BUSH: MARGIN NOW 7 OVER DUKAKIS!Jbc $ar-ictjiw/eagleton POLL
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3 55 percent saying their view of him had been unchanged by what they saw in the debate. outnumbered unfavorable ones by a similar margin of 26 to 19 percent, with a majority of become more favorable and 16 percent said less favorable. Favorable changes about Bush on what they saw, while 28 percent said their view of the Massachusetts Governor had candidate. Most viewers--57 percent--said their opinion of Dukakis had not changed based On balance, the debate did little to change New Jerseyans impressions of either Copyright: OcEober 2, 1988, The Eagleton Institute and Newark Star-Ledzer have to step up the pace of his campaign and sharpen the clarity of his message in the weeks to come if he is to overtake Bush in New Jersey. 15 percent expressing no judgment. impression of Bush, while one-third (34 percent) express an unfavorable view of him. The remaining 13 percent express no opinion. Dukakis is now slightly less well regarded than Bush--favorable opinions outnumber unfavorable ones by a margin of 46 to 39 percent, with capturing the presidency, and it is a state that is slipping away from them. Dukakis will About half (53 percent) of Garden Statefl residents continue to hold a favorable Zukin said, New Jersey is a state that the Democrats must win to have a shot at EP7O-2 (SL/EP2O-2) Page 2
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5 The second wave of interviews was conducted between September 25 and 29, when an additional 514 definite would definitely or probably vote in November s election. For greater reliability a supplemental sample of an 16 and 22, 1988, when a random sample of 500 New Jerseyans ages 18 years and older was interviewed by The latest Star-Ledzer/Eagleton Poll was conducted in two waves. Wave 1 was completed between September telephone. This sampling yielded a total of 367 respondents who reported being registered to vote and saying they additional 1.38 probable voters was then interviewed about their presidential voting preference to bolster the BACKGROUND MEMO--RELEASE SL/EP 20-2 (EP 70-2). SUNDAY. OCTOBER 2, 1988 overall sample size to 505. Figures based on this sample size are subject to a sampling error of ± 4.5 percent. or probable voters were interviewed. Some questions were asked of a slightly smaller subset of respondents = (n approximately 400), and are subject to a sampling error of ± 5 percent. RUTGERS Eaglefon Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey / Democrat --Republican C --Independent (135) 101 (156) (152) En Bush 100 (224) --Dukakis 99 (179) Vote Choice VIEWERS ONLY (355) TOTAL EXPOSED 13% 21% 18% 8% 41% 101% (463) Lot Little Little Lot Nobody Won DUKAKIS BUSH a lot or just a little?) Who do you think actually got the best of the debate--dukakis or Bush? (IF CHOICE MADE, PROBE: By ASKED ONLY OF ThOSE WHO WATCHED OR READ SOMETHING ABOUT THE DEBATE: Labeled as Total Exposed below. Bush 100 (242) --Dukakis THE WAY! LtflVSW OF NB EPV Vote Choice 100 (201) --Republican 7 Democrat Pani, Independent (168) 100 (145) (175) TOTAL 67% 21% 12% 100% (514) Viewed* But Read Nor Read Didn t View Neither Watched read or seen any news stories about Sunday s debate? Did you watch last Sunday s Presidential debate on TV or listen to it on the radio? IF NO, ASK Have you follows: of error inherent in any study of public opinion. The questions and figures referred to in this release are as scientific sample taken from that population. Sampling error does not take into account other possible sources Sampling error is the probable difference in results between interviewing everyone in the population versus a!flic tae-icbgcr/eagleton POLL
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7 Favorable Favorable Change Total More Less No TOTAL EXPOSED 26% 15% 59% 100% (383) VIEWERS ONLY (293) MTCHAEL UUKAKTS Based on what you saw or heard about the debate, did your overall impression of (Michael Dukakis/George Bush) become more favorable, less favorable, or didn E your view of him change? --Republican (116) --Democrat (124) --Independent (131) --Bush (190) --Dukakis (147) J7ore Choice VIEWERS ONLY (293) TOTAL EXPOSED (383) GEORGE BUSH --Republican (116) --Democrat (124) --Independent (131) --Bush (190) --Dukalds (147) Vote Choice at/v-h - 2-
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9 22 (favorable/unfavorable)? Next, how about... TOTAL 21% 32% 19% 15% 13% 100% (514) FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE No FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE, PROBE: Is that very (favorable/unfavorable) or only somewhat some just say so. First, how about do you have a fovorable or unfavorable impression of him? IF name please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable impression. If you don t have an opinion on SEPTEMBER GEORGE BUSH Yi Somewhat Somewhat Yry Opinion Now I d like to get your general feelings about the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates. For each --Republican (145) --Democrat (168) --Independent (168) TOTAL (505) MICHAEL DUKAKIS Pa --Republican (145) --Democrat (168) --Independent (168) TOTAL (505) GEORGE BUSH September (Pre Dehate --Republican (145) --Democrat (175) --Independent (168) Party TOTAL (514) MICHAEL DUKAKTS --Democrat (175) --Independent (168) --Republican (145) Party L L u_ A A 4.iJL) - J
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11 --Democrat (168) and George Bush, the Republican; who would you vote for? (IF RESPONDENT SAYS OTHER, PROBE: INITIALLY UNDECIDED Chooses Leans to Pure Leans Chooses TOTAL September % 4% 6% 3% 47% 100% (497) Dukakis Dukakis Undecided to Bush Bush But if you had to choose only between Dukakis and Bush who would you vote for? ) If the election for President were held today and you had to choose between Michael Dukalds, the Democrat; Respondents saying they would not vote for President have been excluded from the table. --Republican (164) --Democrat (190) --Independent (197) TOTAL--May, (570) Republican (145) --Democrat % (167) --Independent (166) TOTAL September (505) DEBATE VIEWERS (343) --Republican (143) --Independent (162) v- - La A )
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13 (n) (201) (242) (212) (244) (187) (354) (287) (325) (279) (243) TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Might Change Sure/Firm 72% 76% 80% 71% 78% 78% 70% 71% 80% 78% Dukakis Bush Dukakis Bush Mondale Reagan Carter Reagan Carter Ford Sent Sept Atrnust 1984 September 1980 September 1976 Are you very sure about your choice or do you think you might change your mind before election day? SEPTEMBER, (971) AUGUST, (638) --Dukakis (212) --Bush (244) j Vote Choice SEPTEMBER 16-fl, (505) --Bush (242) --Dukakis (201) Vote Choice SEPTEMBER 26-29, % 30% 13% 1% ioiq 0 (514) LL Some Little/None No Opinion Total How much interest do you have in this election--a lot, some, a little or none at all? TM E[ lu-i. çsl/hr2u-2)
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1Z.IJ TJER.S Logleton Institute of Politics New Brunswick New Jersey / ([he,t&-icbgcr/eagleton POLL
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