2016 ELECTION SUMMARY

Transcription

1 2016 ELECTION SUMMARY November 9, 2016 The Texas Deer Association has complied an election summary for its members to provide voter data and the results of the election. If you have any questions we encourage you to call the office or visit the Secretary of States website. Abstract Texas Deer Association 816 Congress Ave Ste 950 Austin, TX

2 Data & Research 2016 General Early Voting Analysis Twelve November 7, 2016 The following information is based on data collected from various counties around the state. It does not include data from all counties, but the information provides a snapshot of a large portion of the state s early voters. The information includes voters through Friday, November 4 th. Early Voters By Previous History 15.8% 31.3% 30.0% 1.1% 1.0% 20.7% Percentage of Early Voters past GOP history, but no previous DEM history 31.3% mixed primary history, most recently voted in a GOP 1.1% past DEM history, but no previous GOP history 20.7% mixed primary history, most recently voted in a DEM 1.0% no history, but have voted in a General 30.0% no history or General history 15.8%

3 Tracking by The following charts the share of the early vote by each group based on their past election history. For example, early voters with previous Republican history (who have not voted in a Democratic ) accounted for 35.3% of the early voters on day one. However, by the end of early voting, this group only accounted for 31.3% of the early voters. 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% / Shift from 1 to 11 past GOP history, but no previous DEM history -4.0% mixed primary history, most recently voted in a GOP -0.2% past DEM history, but no previous GOP history -10.7% mixed primary history, most recently voted in a DEM -0.6% no history, but have voted in a General 7.9% no history or General history 7.5%

4 Turnout Within Group Based on data from the counties that Ryan Data & Research is tracking, a larger portion of voters in each voting group have voted early in 2016 than they did in For example, in 2012, 70.5% of all Republican voters cast a ballot during early voting. In 2016, 74.0% of Republican voters voted early. No History 16.4% 19.6% GEN Only 36.5% 43.2% Mixed Last D 67.8% 81.7% DEM Only 55.6% 73.1% Mixed Last R 74.9% 79.1% GOP Only 70.5% 74.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

5 Early Voters By Gender Gender Not Listed 4.3% Female 53.8% Male 41.9% The following is a breakdown of early voters by previous election history broken down by gender. For example, of the early voters with previous Republican history (with no Democratic history), 45.8% were men, 49.5% were women, and 4.7% did not have a gender listed. Previous History Male Female past GOP history, but no previous DEM history mixed primary history, most recently voted in a GOP past DEM history, but no previous GOP history mixed primary history, most recently voted in a DEM no history, but have voted in a General no history or General history Gender Not Listed 45.8% 49.5% 4.7% 47.2% 49.8% 3.0% 38.0% 58.5% 3.5% 45.2% 50.5% 4.3% 39.7% 55.4% 4.8% 42.8% 53.3% 3.9%

6 Early Voters By Age 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Under to to to to to to to and Up The following is a breakdown of early voters by age and previous election history. For example, of the early voters under the age of 20, 7.9% had previously voted in a Republican and 9.1% had previously voted in a Democratic. past GOP history, but no previous DEM history mixed primary history, most recently voted in a GOP past DEM history, but no previous GOP history mixed primary history, most recently voted in a DEM no history, but have voted in a General no history or General history Under % 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 82.9% 20 to % 0.2% 18.9% 0.4% 27.1% 38.7% 30 to % 0.5% 19.1% 0.6% 36.3% 23.4% 40 to % 0.8% 19.0% 0.7% 37.8% 15.1% 50 to % 1.1% 19.8% 1.1% 33.3% 9.8% 60 to % 1.6% 23.3% 1.5% 26.9% 7.1% 70 to % 2.2% 24.4% 1.7% 20.2% 5.0% 80 to % 2.2% 26.0% 1.5% 18.9% 4.3% 90 and Up 41.3% 1.6% 26.8% 1.1% 23.5% 5.7%

7 Early Voters By Hispanic Surname Hispanic 19.7% Non-Hispanic 80.3% The following is a breakdown of early voters by Hispanic surname and previous election history. For example, of the early voters who had a Hispanic surname, 13.9% had previously voted in a Republican and 31.5% had previously voted in a Democratic. Early Voters - Hispanic Surname Early Voters - Non-Hispanic Surname past GOP history, but no previous DEM history mixed primary history, most recently voted in a GOP past DEM history, but no previous GOP history mixed primary history, most recently voted in a DEM no history, but have voted in a General no history or General history 13.9% 1.5% 31.5% 0.9% 31.1% 21.1% 35.4% 1.0% 18.2% 1.1% 29.8% 14.6%

8 Who are the no Previous History? Of all the early voters in the counties that Ryan Data & Research is tracking, 15.8% had no previous General or history. The breakdown of that group is as follows: 37% 43% Registered Since Registered From Nov 2014 to Mar 2016 Registered Prior to Nov % By Gender Male: 42.8% Female: 53.3% Gender not listed: 3.9% By Age Under 20: 10.0% 20 to 29: 25.0% 30 to 39: 21.9% 40 to 49: 16.9% 50 to 59: 12.9% 60 to 69: 8.6% 70 to 79: 3.3% 80 to 89: 1.1% 90 and Up: 0.2% By Ethnicity Hispanic surname: 25.6% Non-Hispanic surname: 74.4%

9 Early Voters by Mail 2012 vs % 8.3% 19.2% 41.2% 21.3% 38.6% 0.6% 1.0% 22.4% 5.9% 29.7% 1.2% Early Voters in Person 2012 vs % 16.4% 25.6% 30.8% 28.4% 5.5% 30.6% 1.1% 0.9% 26.7% 1.0% 20.1%

10 Who is Voting Early in the 2016 General? (Select Counties) The following is a breakdown of who has voted early in the General based on their past and General History. (Example: In Harris County, 28.6% of the people who have voted early are previous Republican voters.) County Previous GOP Voter (No Dem History) Previous GOP and DEM Voter (Last voted GOP) Previous DEM Voter (No GOP History) Previous GOP and DEM Voter (Last voted DEM) Previous General Voter / No History No Previous General or History HARRIS 28.6% 0.7% 20.3% 0.7% 33.6% 16.1% DALLAS 26.1% 0.9% 25.2% 1.0% 31.6% 15.2% TARRANT 36.8% 0.7% 17.2% 1.0% 30.1% 14.1% BEXAR 26.3% 1.2% 22.7% 1.1% 32.1% 16.6% TRAVIS 20.6% 0.9% 33.6% 1.9% 26.6% 16.4% COLLIN 38.5% 0.5% 11.4% 0.9% 31.9% 16.8% WILLIAMSON 38.7% 0.8% 16.3% 1.3% 28.1% 14.8% DENTON 37.9% 0.4% 11.3% 0.8% 32.2% 17.4% MONTGOMERY 51.6% 0.7% 6.5% 0.5% 25.3% 15.3% HIDALGO 9.0% 3.3% 45.0% 1.1% 21.8% 19.8% EL PASO 12.0% 3.7% 35.4% 1.2% 26.7% 21.0% FORT BEND 31.6% 0.6% 17.5% 0.7% 33.4% 16.2% BRAZORIA 39.8% 0.8% 12.6% 0.8% 32.0% 14.0% GALVESTON* 39.2% 1.9% 12.8% 0.8% 30.9% 14.3% NUECES 30.1% 1.8% 25.1% 1.3% 26.9% 14.8% LUBBOCK 51.9% 1.2% 10.4% 1.5% 21.0% 14.1% MCLENNAN 45.3% 1.6% 12.5% 1.1% 26.0% 13.5% SMITH* 57.3% 1.0% 6.1% 1.0% 23.7% 10.9% ROCKWALL 51.1% 0.6% 7.6% 0.9% 25.0% 14.9% WEBB 3.9% 4.2% 60.4% 1.5% 13.6% 16.4% *Numbers are through Thursday only.

11 Early Voting Cumulative Totals 2008 to 2016 Top 15 Counties Only 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Numbers on this page are provided by the Texas Secretary of State , , , , ,110 1,004, , , ,106 1,112,446 1,374,279 1,650, , , ,129 1,187,790 1,472,595 1,759, , ,460 1,394,620 1,781,006 2,177,975 2,508, ,086,745 1,294,409 1,534,963 1,781,462 2,054,951 2,412, ,772,441 2,069,331 2,390,051 2,736,159 3,117,005 3,556, ,875,185 2,161,513 2,430,874 2,679,192 2,970,237 3,407, ,657,512 2,982,616 3,311,159 3,655,123 4,006,732 4,497,431

12 2016 TEXAS GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS November 9, 2016 Unofficial Results with 98.47% reporting at 6:59am TURNOUT 2016 turnout 58.79% (8,878,152 voters) 2014 turnout 33.70% (4,727,208 voters) 2012 turnout 58.58% (7,993,851 voters) 2010 turnout 38.00% (4,979,870 voters) 2008 turnout 59.50% (8,077,795 voters) 2006 turnout 33.64% (4,399,068 voters) 2004 turnout 56.57% (7,410,765 voters) 2002 turnout 36.24% (4,553,979 voters) 2000 turnout 51.81% (6,407,637 voters) PRESIDENT In Texas, Republican Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton 52.6% to 43.4%. The counties of Bexar, Travis, Dallas and Harris all went for Hillary Clinton as did the major counties making up the Rio Grande Valley. Donald Trump performed well in rural Texas as well as GOP stronghold counties of Montgomery, Tarrant, Denton, Collin and Williamson. US CONGRESS Only one congressional district was competitive and that was in CD 23, where Congressman Will Hurd-R kept his seat by defeating Pete Gallego. We will have two new Congressmen in the Texas delegation as a result of retirements: In Congressional District 15, Ruben Hinojosa-D (Weslaco) is retiring. Democrat Vicente Gonzalez defeated Republican Tim Westley.

13 In Congressional District 19, Randy Neugebauer-R (Lubbock), announced his retirement and will be replaced by Republican Jodey Arrington, who ran unopposed in the General. STATEWIDE Railroad Commissioner Former State Representative Wayne Christian-R defeated Grady Yarbrough-D (Retired educator from San Antonio). Supreme Court All three Supreme Court Justices won their seats. SC3: Republican Justice Debra Lehrmann defeated Democrat Mike Westergren SC5: Republican Justice Paul Green defeated Democrat Dori Contreras Garza SC 9: Republican Justice Eva Guzman defeated Democrat Savannah Robinson Court of Criminal Appeals All three Court of Criminal Appeals judges won their seats. PL2: Republican Mary Lou Keel defeated Democrat Lawrence Meyers PL5: Republican Scott Walker defeated Democrat Betsy Johnson PL6: Incumbent Republican Michael Keasler defeated Democrat Robert Burns Court of Appeals 1st Court of Appeals CJ: Incumbent Justice Sherry Radack defeated Democrat Jim Peacock PL4: Incumbent Republican Evelyn Keyes defeated Democrat Barbara Gardner 4th Court of Appeals (Based in San Antonio) PL6: Incumbent Republican Jason Pulliam was defeated by Democrat Irene Rios 5th Court of Appeals (Based in Dallas) PL4: Incumbent Republican Lana Myers defeated Democrat Gena Slaughter

14 PL7: Incumbent Republican David Schenck defeated Democrat Dennise Garcia 13th Court of Appeals (Based in Corpus Christi/Edinburg) PL3: Incumbent Republican Gregory Perkes was defeated by Democrat Leticia Hinojosa 14th Court of Appeals (Based in Houston) PL2: Republican Kevin Jewell defeated Democrat Candance White PL9: Incumbent Republican Tracy Christopher defeated Democrat Peter Kelly TEXAS SENATE The Texas Senate will have 20 Republicans and 11 Democrats We will have 3 new senators in the 2017 session as a result of retirements, one Democrat and two Republicans. Both of the Republican replacements are more conservative Republicans that are more in line with Lt Governor Patrick and the tea party types than the retiring senators who were more Perry/Cornyn types. These senators had general election opponents and defeated their opposition: Senator Carlos Uresti (D), Senator Chuy Hinojosa (D), and Senator Brian Birdwell (R). New Senators: SD 1: Rep. Bryan Hughes (Sen. Eltife retired) SD 13: Borris Miles (Sen. Ellis retired) SD 24: Dr. Dawn Buckingham (Sen. Fraser retired) TEXAS HOUSE The Texas House will have 95 Republicans and 55 Democrats Four incumbents Republicans were defeated: Rep. Kenneth Sheets-R was defeated by Victoria Neave-D Rep. Gilbert Pena-R was defeated by former member Mary Ann Perez-D Rep. Rick Galindo-R was defeated by former member Philip Cortez-D Rep. John Lujan-R was defeated by Tomas Uresti-D

15 Going into the 2017 session, we will have 27 new members (4 are former members) as a result of retirements and primary/general election defeats. HD 4: Lance Gooden-R (Rep. Stuart Spitzer defeated in primary) HD 5: Cole Hefner-R (Rep. Bryan Hughes ran for senate) HD 7: Jay Dean-R (Rep. Simpson-R ran for senate) HD 18: Ernest Bailes-R (Rep. John Otto-R retired) HD 20: Terry Wilson-R (Rep. Marsha Farney-R defeated in primary) HD 33: Justin Holland-R (Rep. Scott Turner-R retired) HD 46: Rep. Dukes will will not be sworn in. HD 49: Gina Hinojosa-D (Rep. Naishtat-D retired) HD 54: Scott Cosper-R (Rep. Aycock-R retired) HD 55: Former Member Hugh Shine-R (Rep. Molly White-R defeated in primary) HD 60: Mike Lang-R (Rep. Jim Keffer-R retired) HD 64: Lynn Stucky-R (Rep. Myra Crownover-R retired) HD 71: Stan Lambert-R (Rep. Susan King-R ran for senate) HD 73: Kyle Biederman-R (Rep. Doug Miller-R defeated in primary) HD 77: Lina Ortega-D (Rep. Marisa Marquez-D retired) HD 107: Victoria Neave-D (Rep. Kenneth Sheets-R defeated) HD 116: Diana Arevalo-D (Rep. Trey Martinez Fisher ran for senate) HD 117: Former Member Philip Cortez-D (Rep. Rick Galindo-R defeated) HD 118: Carlos Uresti-D (Rep. John Lujan-R defeated) HD 120: Barbara Hawkins-D (McClendon retired/laura Thompson-I not on general election ballot) HD 126: Kevin Roberts-R (Rep. Patricia Harless-R retired) HD 128: Briscoe Cain-R (Rep. Wayne Smith-R defeated in primary) HD 130: Tom Oliverson-R (Rep. Allen Fletcher-R retired) HD 139: Rep. Jarvis Johnson-R (Rep. Sylvester Turner-D retired) HD 144: Former Member Mary Ann Perez-D (Rep. Gilbert Pena-R defeated) HD 146: Shawn Thierry-D (Rep. Borris Miles-D ran for senate) HD 150: Valoree Swanson-R (Rep. Riddle-R defeated in primary) Top of the watch list : HD 23: Rep. Wayne Faircloth (R) defeated Lloyd Criss(D) HD 43: Rep. JM Lozano (R) defeated Marisa Yvette Garcia-Utley (D)

16 HD 78: Rep. Joe Moody (D) defeated Jeff Lane (R) HD 102: Rep. Linda Koop (R) defeated Laura Irvin (D) HD 105: Rep. Rodney Anderson (R) defeated Terra Meza (D) HD 107: Rep. Kenneth Sheets (R) was defeated by Victoria Neave (D) HD 113: Rep. Cindy Burkett (R) defeated Rhetta Andrews Bowers (D) HD 117: Rep. Rick Galindo (R) was defeated by Philip Cortez (D) HD 118: Rep. John Lujan (R) was defeated by Tomas Uresti (D) HD 134: Rep. Sarah Davis (R) defeated Ben Rose (D) HD 136: Rep. Tony Dale (R) defeated Paul Gordon (D) HD 144: Rep. Gilbert Pena (R) was defeated by Mary Ann Perez (D)