A True Diversity Wave. Update on Demographic Projections and Policy Implications for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 116th Congress

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1 A True Diversity Wave Update on Demographic Projections and Policy Implications for the U.S. House of Representatives in the 116th Congress

2 1 The votes are in... We have a more diverse U.S. House This deck updates our report, A Diversity Wave, released last month, in which we projected the potential increase of diversity in Congress under several different election outcome scenarios. The levels of diversity in the new House of Representatives are in line with what we expected would be possible in a scenario where Democrats won a modest House majority. As we described in A Diversity Wave, we believe that the diverse leadership of House committees and subcommittees in the 116th Congress will result in a shift of emphasis that will more closely reflect the experiences, concerns, and priorities of our ever more diverse nation.

3 116th 115th 116th Congress House Record Number of Women For the first time ever, over 100 out of the 441 U.S. Representatives and Delegates will be women. The total number of women could shift slightly up or down, depending on several races that are still too close to call (CA-39, GA- 7, NY-22, TX-23, UT-4). Men % Men % Results pending 5 Women 89 20% Women %

4 116th 115th 116th Congress House Women in the House, by Party The number of women in each party in the 116th Congress could rise or fall slightly depending on the final outcomes in close races. Democrats Republicans Democrats 91 Republicans 19

5 116th 115th 116th Congress House People of Color at Record Level Congressional candidates of color performed well. We previously projected that if Democrats gained 42 seats, people of color would hold 118 seats. In results declared thus far, the 118 figure has been reached, with a Democratic net gain of 34 seats. People of Color % People of Color %

6 116th Congress House People of Color at Record Level * People of Color includes African American, Hispanic, Asian American Pacific islander, Native American, and Palestinian American. Total in the graphic below exceeds 117, as some members identify as more than one race. POC* 118 African American 56 13% Hispanic 43 10% AAPI 16 4% 5 1% Native American & other

7 116th Congress House LGBT Representatives Moving Up! The total number may rise to nine depending on the outcome of the TX-23 race. No openly LGBT members of Congress lost re-election. The two departing members went on to run for higher office, with Jared Polis elected the nation s first openly gay governor and Kyrsten Sinema as the first openly bisexual Senator. 8 LGBT Members in 116th Congress 8 Democrats, 0 Republicans Outgoing Jared Polis, CO-2 Kyrsten Sinema, AZ-9 +2 net gain 6 in 115th Incoming Annie Craig, MN-2 Sharice Davids, KS-3 Katie Hill, CA-25 Chris Pappas, NH-1 +1 Pending Outcome in TX-23

8 116th Congress House African American Representatives Congressional Black Caucus on track for 56 members* The number could dip to 55, depending on how Mia Love fares in her close race, and the total number of African American members in the House could dip further if incumbent Will Hurd loses the final count in his race. * Sen. Kamala Harris is a CBC member, while Sen. Tim Scott and Rep. Will Hurd are not. 56 African American Members in 116th Congress 54 Democrats, 2 Republicans Outgoing Keith Ellison, MN-5 +8 net gain 48 in 115th Incoming Colin Allred, TX-32 Antonio Delgado, NY-19 Jahana Hayes, CT-5 Steven Horsford, NV-4 Lucy McBath, GA-6 Joe Neguse, CO-2 Ilhan Omar, MN-5 Ayanna Pressley, MA-7 Lauren Underwood, IL-14

9 116th Congress House Hispanic Representatives Congressional Hispanic Caucus grows to 36 The number could reach 37, depending on the outcome in CA-39. Hispanic Republicans, who don t caucus with the CHC, welcome NFL veteran Anthony Gonzalez to their ranks. 43 Hispanic Members in 116th Congress 34 Democrats, 9 Republicans Outgoing Carlos Curbelo, FL-26 Luis Gutierrez, IL-4 Ruben Kihuen, NV-4 Raul Labrador, ID-1 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, FL-27 Michelle Lujan Grisham, NM-1 +3 net gain 40 in 115th +1 pending outcome Incoming Antonio Delgado, NY-19 Veronica Escobar, TX-16 Chuy Garcia, IL-4 Sylvia Garcia, TX-29 Anthony Gonzalez, OH-16 Mike Levin, CA-49 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, FL-26 Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, NY-14 Xochitl Torres Small, NM-2

10 116th Congress House AAPI Representatives Now at 16 members, could reach 18 Young Kim (R) in CA-39 has a slight edge in her race, though ballots remain to be counted that could change the outcome. In TX-23, Gina Ortiz Jones has said she will not concede her close race, in which she s currently trailing, until all ballots are counted. 16 AAPI Members in 116th Congress 14 Democrats, 1 Republican Outgoing Colleen Hanabusa, HI-1 +1 net gain 15 in 115th +2 Pending Outcomes Incoming Andy Kim, NJ-3 Michael San Nicolas, Guam

11 116th Congress House Native American Representatives First Native American Women in Congress Democrats Sharice Davids and Deb Haaland are the first Native American women to serve in the U.S. Congress. They double the Native American representation in Congress by joining Reps. Tom Cole and Markwayne Mullin, both Republicans from Oklahoma. 4 Native Members in 116th Congress 2 Democrats, 2 Republicans +2 net gain Incoming Sharice Davids, KS-3 Deb Haaland, NM-1

12 About The Raben Group Raben is a national public policy, communications, and organizational consulting firm committed to solving problems and inspiring change across the corporate, nonprofit, and government sectors. The country s largest and most inclusive progressive public affairs agency, with deep roots in communities of color, the women s equality movement, and the LGBTQ community, we bring a unique, often untold perspective to policy and systems change. Learn more about us online at rabengroup.com Questions about our data in this report? Michael Torra at mtorra@rabengroup.com

13 Appendix: Data Sources Subcommittee Leaders Our projection for who will lead subcommittees rests on many variables. You can find our assumptions, by each subcommittee, in these tracking sheets. We will update this resource regularly as new information becomes available. Diversity Data Want to check our math? This table is keeping a running tally of changes in diversity in the House and will be updated as close races are called. This table lists each House seat, who ran in open and competitive seats, and what the impacts on diversity would be under our three hypothetical election outcome scenarios for the House. In building these tables, we consulted House.gov, Politico, The New York Times, Ballotpedia, the LGBTQ Victory Fund, and Women of Color For America.