Trump & Washington: High anxiety, low expectations Jim Wiesemeyer Washington Policy Analyst, Pro Farmer

Transcription

1 Trump & Washington: High anxiety, low expectations Jim Wiesemeyer Washington Policy Analyst, Pro Farmer

2 Dysfunction in Washington GOP surprised by victory, not ready to govern Example: Failure to deal with ObamaCare Dems: Both political parties rarely struggle simultaneously with deep internal divisions Dems: Big tent for 2020 presidential election... like GOP in 2016

3 Trump Impacts Not cause but effect of U.S. voter swings Different message with different messengers Rejected long-held GOP positions on trade, foreign policy, entitlements, etc. Populists: Make America Great Again... back to a past that supporters miss Forging unity is difficult... polar opposites

4 Congress Hasn t Delivered Especially in Senate Health-care fiasco... intraparty GOP feuds Next battles: Budget, tax reform/cuts Other issues: Debt limit * Immigration (DACA) Infrastructure: Funding and politics big hurdles Farm bill: May be one of easier bills to pass, but

5 Executive Orders, Regulations Like Obama, Trump does end-arounds, but Laws more durable than orders and regs Trump: 49 exec orders... more than recent presidents Coming: overhaul of welfare programs. Rural areas... task force to lift rural economy Legal challenges ahead

6 Executive Orders & Trump

7 Trump Remaking Federal Judiciary Trump working with Sen. McConnell Trump has nominated over 60 judges Filling more vacancies than Obama entire first year Another 160 court openings 99% of federal legal disputes Supreme Court: More potential openings ahead???... Kennedy * Ginsberg

8 2018 Elections Numbers favor GOP in Senate, but ; Off-year election puts House in play 25 Democratic Senate seats up 10 in states Trump carried 5 in states Trump won by 19 points or more Only 8 GOP seats Will GOP expand current majority? Special election TODAY for Alabama Senate seat House: In play Dems need net gain of 24 seats

9 Questions What party will gain seats in Senate next fall? What party will gain seats in House? How many? Will Trump run for re-election and win? Who do the Dems nominate for president?

10 Trade Policy: Hot Button Issue Fear Mounts on Trump Trade Policies, Impacts Trump withdraws from TPP Japanese officials trying to woo Trump to return Trump threatens to end NAFTA, KORUS, CUBA Favors bilaterals over multilateral accords But no bilateral talks have started Undoing a lot of Cuba trade openings from Obama term Others inking new trade agreements: EU-Japan, etc.

11 NAFTA 2.0 Talks U.S. takes aggressive positions Big changes for auto/parts origin, dairy, produce, etc. Canada, Mexico reject many hardline U.S. positions Timeline: Will go into 2018 elections ahead Impact on U.S.-Mexico sugar agreement Does Trump really want to walk away? If NAFTA 2.0 succeeds, will Congress approve? If Trump bolts NAFTA, would Congress reject? Impacts if NAFTA collapses

12 Trade With Canada, Mexico

13 Trade With Canada, Mexico

14 Trade With Canada, Mexico

15 If NAFTA Collapses Ag industry would have negative implications Would hurt overall U.S. economy Would cause a big squeeze to some sectors and states Could impact stock markets Some factory work would move north from Mexico, but... U.S. would lose a net 256,000 jobs over three to five years Among the losers: Auto, food, and apparel makers that have crafted efficient supply chains around duty-free passage of parts and goods across borders

16 Impacts if NAFTA Collapses

17 Driving Next Farm Bill Debate

18 Questions When will new farm bill be signed into law? Will cotton and dairy be fixed before farm bill? What will Commodity Title look like? RICE? Biggest blocks to approval of a new farm bill? How will food stamps be dealt with?

19 Questions Do Dems want a farm bill before their re-election or an issue to run on, as was case in 2012? Does crop insurance get by without cuts? What will be USDA, Perdue s role in farm bill?

20 Questions Will next farm bill be permanent law? Who will be next Chairman of House Ag Committee? GOP: G.T. Thompson (Pa.) or Rodney Davis (Ill.) Dem: David Scott (Ga.) or Jim Costa (Calif.) Who will be next leader of Senate Ag panel? GOP: If not Roberts, Cochran John Boozman (Ark.) Dem: Stabenow (Mich.)

21 New Farm Bill Perspective First time since 1996 that an all-gop Congress could pass a farm bill. First time since 1954 that an all-gop government could pass a farm bill. Can they do it?

22 Funding Issues Ahead Proposed changes need lots of funding Sugar program: No major changes expected, but CRP cap increase: Up to $500 million a year ARC: Just one change (10-year avg.): $450 million one year PLC boost: Commodity groups want reference hikes, but Cotton safety net: Offsets found but Dairy safety net: Changes proposed, but costly Eliminating LGM cap: Possible will OMB go along? Vaccine bank to combat FMD: $150 million annually

23 Questions What inroads has Trump admin. made in rolling back regulations? What will become of ObamaCare? Does Goodlatte get his guest-worker bill into law? What is your prediction on commodity prices? What are top issues you hear from farmers, agribusiness on the speaking circuit?

24 Tax Reform Issues House, Senate pass bill Conference Ahead Income tax rates Drops corporate rate to 20%, from 35% now Nearly doubles standard deductions Pass-through businesses upset, got changes Co-ops very upset Sec. 199 gone Estate tax Like-kind exchanges: farmland qualifies for 1031 exchanges Farming can deduct net interest expenses. Capital gains & dividends: No change Expensing

25 Questions? Jim Wiesemeyer Washington Policy Analyst, Pro Farmer