Economics of the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP)

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1 Economics of the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP) AED/IS 4540 International Commerce and the World Economy Professor Sheldon

2 What is TPP? Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP), signed October 5, 2015 largest regional free trade agreement (FTA) struck in past 20 years After 7 years of negotiations, 12 countries agreed to form TPP, although still requires ratification Member countries: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and US TPP currently accounts for 40% of world GDP, 11% of population and 27% of world trade

3 TPP trade flows 2014 Trade Flows between US and TPP Members ($billion) Source: USITC (2015)

4 TPP and regionalism TPP has emerged amidst uncertainty about global trading system and future role of WTO At same time, wave of bilateral and regional FTAs has affected Asia-Pacific region 39 in existence with others in negotiation Shift from multilateral to regional trade liberalization driven by: (i) multi-polar world economy; (ii) more complex linkages; (iii) many orthodox trade barriers eliminated Further liberalization requires incremental steps among close partners to simplify negotiations

5 Broad goals of TPP Argued TPP serves several goals: Integration spanning Asia-Pacific likely to deliver greater benefits than narrower agreement Covers services, investment, competition and regulatory coherence, i.e., deep integration Provides model for consolidating existing FTAs i.e., way out of Asia-Pacific noodle bowl US will get preferential access to Asian markets currently affected by existing FTAs involving China, Japan and ASEAN member countries

6 ASEAN/TPP noodle bowl ASEAN + Japan NAFTA ASEAN: Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam ASEAN P-4: Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore ASEAN + Australia and NZ P-4

7 Expected benefits of TPP TPP benefits by 2030 (Petri and Plummer, 2016): Global GDP will increase by $492 billion/year US and Japanese GDP/year will increase 0.5% and 2.5% respectively, i.e., by $131 and $125 billion Vietnamese and Malaysian GDP/year will increase 8.1% and 7.6% respectively, i.e., by $41 and $52 billion Income gains reflect benefits from increased trade as well as cross-border investment flows (FDI) Large part of US gains likely to come from FDI, especially in service sector

8 Trade liberalization and TPP TPP will reduce more than 18,000 tariffs, including many agricultural products On average, US imposes lower tariffs than its TPP partners, except for textiles, apparel and footwear Not all tariffs eliminated immediately, but virtually all converge to zero by year 16 of agreement Notable exception is US automobile sector: 6 TPP members face zero tariffs immediately, 4 TPP members after 10 years of agreement Import tariffs on Japanese trucks will remain at 25% until year 30 of agreement

9 Tariff elimination and TPP Source: Freund et al. (2016)

10 Effects of TPP on trade and FDI By 2030 impact of TPP on trade: Exports among all TPP countries will increase by $1,025 billion an increase of 11.5% US, Japanese, Vietnamese, and Malaysian exports will increase by $357 (9%), $276 (23%), $107 (30%) and $99 (20%) billion respectively By 2030 impact of TPP on FDI: Inward and outward FDI will expand by $446 (3.5%) and $305 (2%) billion respectively Largest recipients of inward FDI: US, Canada, Japan and Malaysia, and outward FDI: US, Japan and the EU

11 US sectoral effects of TPP Need to be placed in context of US economy: Manufacturing accounts for only 12% of GDP and 9% of employment relative decline in sector will continue irrespective of trade Tradeable services (financial, communication, computer, logistics, entertainment) account for 25% of employment In terms of likely trade effects: Export gains in primary goods (agriculture and mining), advanced manufacturing and services Increased imports of labor-intensive manufactures such as textiles and apparel

12 Exports of services and TPP Barriers to services trade high among TPP members 20 to 73% ad valorem equivalent US has significant comparative advantage in this sector - $233 billion trade surplus in 2014 (BEA) Based on: large efficient firms, highly educated personnel, and extensive use of information technology Due to TPP commitments, members have committed to significant reduction of barriers in this sector US service exports estimated to increase by $149 billion by % of increased TPP trade in services (Hufbauer, 2016)

13 Agricultural exports and TPP Agricultural products in TPP subject to higher average tariffs than manufactures: 5.2% vs. 2% But varies by country and agricultural product: US tariffs average 3.6% vs. 23% for Japan Mexican tariffs against TPP members average 30.7% vs. 1% against US Under its tariff-rate quota (TRQ), Canada s over-quota tariff on dairy imports is % Japanese tariffs on grains exceed 200% - driven mostly by its protection of rice sector

14 Agricultural exports and TPP Existing FTAs already pushing down tariffs, but by 2025 TPP expected to give extra boost to trade (USDA, 2014): 6% increase in TPP agricultural trade of $8.5 billion US agricultural exports to TPP will increase by $2.8 billion a 33% increase in export market share Australia, New Zealand and Canada will expand export market shares by 30.5, 12.2 and 11.8% respectively Japan will account for 68% increase in agricultural imports, compared to 10% by both US and Canada Beef and dairy products will account for 25% and 19% respectively of increase in value of TPP trade

15 Impact of TPP on labor market Recent study by Acemoglu et al. (2014) estimates net US job losses of 2 million over period from Chinese import competition No surprise about public concern over potential effect of TPP on US labor market Expectation is that TPP will favor skilled labor as resources continue to shift from basic manufacturing toward traded services and advanced manufacturing Service sector is skilled-labor intensive, basic manufacturing is capital/low-skilled labor-intensive Wages of skilled workers forecast to rise more than those of unskilled workers, and more than returns to capital

16 Impact of TPP on labor market Petri and Plummer (2016) estimate 72,000 jobs/year will be shifted over period due to TPP If reduced by 25% to account for voluntary job separation, 54,000 annual job changes will be involuntary and attributable to TPP To place this in perspective: there were 55.5 million job changes in 2014, i.e., TPP would account for less than 0.1% increase in annual US job churn While some workers displaced by TPP will get reemployed, others will either find it harder due to age and location and/or they will get lower wages Strong argument for using resources to aid adjustment to trade (OECD, ILO, World Bank and WTO)

17 Other aspects of TPP Some other aspects of TPP have got public attention: Labor standards not subject to WTO rules/disciplines; commitments have been made in bilateral and regional FTAs, focusing on workers rights, unions, and worker safety TPP builds on recent FTAs involving US, including new provisions on working conditions in export processing zones (EPZs), and trade in goods produced using forced labor Environment covers broader range of issues than any previous FTA; new obligations to reduce fishing subsidies, manage fisheries, crack down on illegal trafficking in wildlife and illegal logging, promote cooperation on combating climate change State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) WTO and FTAs have had little success in disciplining their behavior; TPP defines rules for commercial engagement covers potential TPP-entry of China

18 Other aspects of TPP Drug patents conflict between drug companies seeking lengthy protection of intellectual property (IP) and those lobbying for greater availability of generic drugs Compromise in TPP over 8-year patent life, but neither side is happy: industry argues IP is weak, other side feels it is overly generous to drug industry Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) extension of existing rules in existing FTAs designed to protect firms investing abroad limits grounds for government expropriation, and firms get treated similarly to domestic and third-country firms Criticized for potential to allow multinational firms to challenge governments, and potentially undermine health, safety and environmental regulations TPP has transparency in proceedings, but no appellate review system EU is pushing for this in TTIP negotiations

19 Other aspects of TPP Exchange rate manipulation some critics have argued against TPP on grounds that it lacks adequate protection against currency manipulation, i.e., competitive devaluation and/or persistent exchange rate misalignment No multilateral enforcement actions have ever been taken to counter currency manipulation in the post-war period by bodies such as the IMF TPP is first FTA to have an explicit link to macroeconomic polices and exchange rates TPP members required to make regular disclosure of foreign exchange reserves, and intervention in currency markets Should make naming and shaming of currency manipulators more effective

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