Forum Most Accurate Firm in Predicting Provincial Elections

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Forum Most Accurate Firm in Predicting Provincial Elections Forum had the most accurate prediction in 5 of last 8 provincial elections and second most accurate in 2 others, APRIL 17 th, 2014 Among all polling firms attempting to predict vote outcome, the Forum Poll tm proved to be the most accurate in five of the last eight provincial elections. No other polling firm was as consistent as the Forum Poll tm Among the seven polling firms who predicted the 2014 Ontario Election, only Forum and one other correctly predicted a Liberal majority. Forum predicted the Liberals would capture 41% of the vote; the actual results (39%) fell within Forum s margin of error (MoE was ±3%). Forum Research was the only firm to predict the Liberal vote within the margin of error. The Forum Poll was the most accurate firm in predicting the 2014 Quebec election with an average deviation of 1.17%. Out of the six firms who polled for the election, Forum was the only one to predict a Liberal majority government. Most firms called for a Liberal minority in Quebec. In a triumph of electoral polling, three competitive firms arrived at very similar and very accurate predictions for the outcome of the Nova Scotia provincial election of October 8 th, Forum Research was the second most accurate, with a total deviation of 1.6%, compared to 0.4% for Abacus Data and 2.4% for Corporate Research Associates (CRA). In the BC election held in May 2013, nine different polling firms attempted to predict the election turnout. Forum was the most accurate of the nine with a deviation of 1.6 across all parties, while the least accurate was Justason with a deviation of 5.4. Forum was the only firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government. In the September 2012 election in Quebec three of four polling firms accurately predicted the election outcome, while EKOS was off by 4.1. Forum, Leger and CROP all were under 2 total percentage point deviation off across all parties. MEDIA INQUIRIES: HIGHLIGHTS: Among all polling firms attempting to predict vote outcome, the Forum Poll tm proved to be the most accurate in five of the last eight provincial elections. In the 2014 Ontario Election, the Forum Poll correctly predicted a Liberal majority. The Forum Poll was the most accurate firm in predicting the 2014 Quebec election with an average deviation of 1.17%. Three competitive firms arrived at very similar and very accurate predictions for the outcome of the Nova Scotia provincial election of October 8 th, Forum was the most accurate polling firm in the BC election. In the September 2012 election in Quebec three of four polling firms accurately predicted the election outcome, while EKOS was off by

2 After the Alberta provincial election, it is clear The Forum Poll conducted on April 22 nd detected a last minute voter swing, and predicted the final election results with greater accuracy than other pollsters. Overall deviation of the poll s findings from the actual election results across all parties was 2.7 with the furthest in the pack, Abacus, deviating by 4.7. The interactive voice response (IVR) poll conducted by Forum Research on November 5 th predicted the outcome with the greatest accuracy of all firms covering the Saskatchewan election. Overall deviation of the poll s findings from the actual election results across all parties was 0.4, with the next closest firm deviating by 1.5 and the furthest in the pack, Praxis, deviating by 2.6. It was clear the interactive voice response (IVR) poll conducted by Forum Research on Oct. 3 rd and 4 th predicted the Ontario election outcome with absolute accuracy. Overall deviation of the poll s findings from the actual election results across all parties was a marginal 1.9%, with the next closest firm deviating by 4.7% and the furthest in the pack, IPSOS Reid, deviating by 11.3%. In a ranking of polling firms, Forum is most accurate When ranking the polling firms based on deviation the Forum Poll tm was the most accurate in five of the last eight provincial elections. When comparing the average deviation across all elections, Forum ranks second in overall deviation and are the only firm who polled all eight elections (1.5%). Nanos has the lowest overall deviation (1.2%) although they only polled in the 2012 Ontario election. Our record in predicting the outcome of the last eight provincial elections confirms that Forum s IVR polling methodology is by far the most accurate of all polling methods in Canada today, said Forum Research president Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. HIGHLIGHTS: After the Alberta provincial election, it is clear The Forum Poll conducted on April 22 nd detected a last minute voter swing. The interactive voice response (IVR) poll conducted by Forum Research on November 5 th predicted the outcome with the greatest accuracy of all firms covering the Saskatchewan election. It was clear the interactive voice response (IVR) poll conducted by Forum Research on Oct. 3 rd and 4 th predicted the Ontario election outcome with absolute accuracy. Our record in predicting the outcome of the last eight provincial elections confirms that Forum s IVR polling methodology is by far the most accurate of all polling methods in Canada today, said Forum Research president Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. 2

3 Ontario Election June 12 th, 2014 % Lib Con NDP Green Other Deviation Actual Results Abacus (n = 1882) Angus Reid (n = 1866) Oracle (n = 1000) Forum Research Inc. (n= 1054) Leger (n = 1050) EKOS (n = 1332) Ipsos Reid (n = 1991) MEDIA INQUIRIES: content/uploads/2014/06/arg Ontario Voter Intention June 2014.pdf to form government in ontario/ Note: EKOS predicted results to the first decimal place. To calculate deviation their results were compared to the elections results to the first decimal na.com/news polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6532 3

4 Ontario Election June 12 th, 2014 Seat Projections % Lib Con NDP Green Other Deviation Actual Results Forum Research Inc. (n= 1054) ThreeHundredEight.com LISPOP TooCloseToCall Canadian Election Atlas MEDIA INQUIRIES: to form government in ontario/ simulator/ 14 ontario election final projection.html 4

5 Quebec Election April 7 th, 2014 % Lib PQ CAQ QS ON Green Other Deviation Actual Results Forum Research Inc. 16 (n= 1536) Angus Reid (n=1410) EKOS (n=1422) Leger (n=1220) Ipsos Reid (n=1012) CROP (n=1400) MEDIA INQUIRIES: % Lib PQ CAQ QS Deviation Actual Results Forum Research content/uploads/2014/04/ ARG Quebec Voter Intention.pdf 18 Note: EKOS didn t predict ON or Green party popular vote, but rather grouped them into the Other category. To calculate deviation, the ON and Green actual results were merged with the Other category. Also since EKOS predicted results to the first decimal place, their deviation was compared to the actual results to the first decimal. content/uploads/full_report_april_4_2014.pdf 19 Note: Leger didn t predict the ON party popular vote, but rather grouped them into the Other category. To calculate deviation, the ON actual result was merged with the Other category Note: Ipsos Reid didn t predict the Green party popular vote, but rather grouped them into the Other category. To calculate deviation, the Green actual result was merged with the Other category. na.com/news polls/pressrelease.aspx?id= Note: CROP didn t predict the Green party popular vote, but rather grouped them into the Other category. To calculate deviation, the Green actual result was merged with the Other category. %20Mars% pdf 22

6 Nova Scotia Election October 8 th, 2013 % Cons Lib NDP Green Other Deviation 23 Actual Results MEDIA INQUIRIES: Abacus (n=600) Forum Research Inc. (n=922) CRA (n=270) % Cons Lib NDP Green Other Deviation 27 Actual Results Forum Research Inc Total percentage point deviation from actual results across all parties scotia election/sun newsabacus data poll right/ 26 content/uploads/2013/10/commentary.pdf 27 Total seat deviation from actual results.

7 BC Election Poll May 8th, 2013 % Lib NDP Green Cons Other Deviation 28 Actual Results Forum Research Inc. (n=1147) Ipsos Reid (n=800) Angus Reid (n=803) Hill & Knowlton (n=804) EKOS (n=861) Oraclepoll (n=1000) Abacus Data (n=1042) Insights West (n=855) Justason (n=700) % Lib NDP Green Cons Other Deviation 38 Actual Results Forum Research Inc Total percentage point deviation from actual results across all parties Results taken from na.com/news polls/pressrelease.aspx?id= reid.com/wp content/uploads/2013/05/ _politics_bc.pdf 32 content/uploads/bc Perspectives Panel.pdf 33 content/uploads/full_report_bc_may_13_2013.pdf 34 c election race tightens as ndp lead shrinks poll content/uploads/2013/04/bcvoteintentionprovincialleadership_april pdf 36 your insights on the upcoming bc election/ Total seat deviation from actual results.

8 Quebec Election September 3rd, 2012 % PQ Lib CAQ QS Green ON Other Deviation 39 Actual Results Leger (n= 1,856) Forum Research Inc. (n= 2,703) CROP (n= ~1,000) EKOS (n= 1,764) % PQ Lib CAQ QS Green ON Other Deviation 45 Actual Results Forum Research Inc Total percentage point deviation from actual results across all parties Results taken from soleil/dossiers/elections quebecoises/201208/30/ sondage crop vers un gouvernementminoritaire pequiste.php 43 content/uploads/quebec_sept_2_2012_english.pdf 44 Other deviation for EKOS calculated by subtracting Other score from 4 as ON and Green incorporated into their Other category 45 Total seat deviation from actual results.

9 Alberta Election April 22nd, 2012 % Cons WAP Lib NDP AP Other Deviation 46 Actual Results Forum Research Inc. (n=1950) Leger (n=1200) Return on Insight (n=800) ThinkHQ (n=1425) Campaign Research (n=1545) Angus Reid (n=800) Abacus Data (n=1076) % Cons WAP Lib NDP AP Other Deviation 54 Actual Results Forum Research Inc Total percentage point deviation from actual results across all parties _Herald Journal_Provincial_Election_Poll_ _April_17_2012.pdf 49 on insight.com/wp content/uploads/2012/04/cbc ROI April 16 Vote intention.pdf 50 poll shows gap in support narrowing between wildrose and pc poised for slim majority.html 52 reid.com/wp content/uploads/2012/04/ _politics_ab.pdf 53 content/uploads/2012/04/wave 5 Release FINAL.pdf 54 Total seat deviation from actual results.

10 Saskatchewan Election November 5th, 2011 % Sask Party NDP Green Liberal Other Deviation 55 Actual Results Forum Research Inc. (n=1034) Insightrix (n=1000) Praxis (n=1041) % Sask Party NDP Green Liberal Other Deviation 59 Actual Results Forum Research Inc Total percentage point deviation from actual results across all parties Results from 86e ac3c 1728afddb6dd&p= election/poll+shows+sask+party+with+lead+over/ /story.html 59 Total seat deviation from actual results.

11 Ontario Election October 3 rd to 4 th, 2011 % Cons Lib NDP Green Other Deviation 60 Actual Results Forum Research Inc. (n=1034) Abacus (n=926) Nanos (n=900) Angus Reid (n=1003) EKOS (n=2165) IPSOS Reid (n=1020) % Cons Lib NDP Green Other Deviation 67 Actual Results Forum Research Inc Total percentage point deviation from actual results across all parties public affairs/ontario election final poll lp 37 pc 34 ndp 24/ 63 F11 T515.pdf 64 reid.com/wp content/uploads/2011/10/ _ontario_final.pdf 65 content/uploads/final_report_october_5_2011.pdf 66 within mcguintys grasp on eve of ontario election pollsuggests/article618009/ 67 Total seat deviation from actual results.

12 Provincial Election Summary Tables Ranking of Most Accurate Firms by Deviation Research Firm Most Accurate Second Most Accurate Third Most Accurate Elections Predicted Forum Research Inc Leger Abacus Data Angus Reid Insightrix 1 1 IPSOS Reid 1 4 CRA 1 1 MEDIA INQUIRIES: CROP 1 2 Nanos 1 1 Praxis 1 1 Return on Insight 1 1 EKOS 1 5 Oraclepoll 1 2 Campaign Research 1 Hill & Knowlton 1 Insights West 1 Justason 1 ThinkHQ 1 12

13 Overall Average Deviation Research Firm Average Deviation Number of Elections Polled Nanos Forum Insightrix Leger Angus CRA Abacus Praxis Ekos Crop Oracle Return Ipsos Think Campaign Hill & Know Insight Justason For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) Fax: (416) E mail: 13