Liberals and PQ tied in Quebec

Transcription

1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Liberals and PQ tied in Quebec Tight PQ majority possible MARCH 5 th, 2014 In a random sampling of public opinion among 951 Quebec voters taken by The Forum Poll the evening of the day on which the Quebec provincial election was called, equal proportions, about 4 in 10, will vote for the Liberals (40%) or the Parti Quebecois (38%) which represents a statistical tie on this sample size. The Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) takes a tenth of the vote (12%), somewhat fewer opt for Quebec Solidaire (QS 7%) while very few will vote for the Green Party (2%) or for any other (1%). The Liberal party is especially popular with the oldest (52%), the less wealthy ($20K to $40K 46%), Anglophones (91%) and Allophones (83% caution; small sample), in Quebec City (46%) and among those who oppose independence for Quebec (60%). The PQ draws support especially from Boomers (55 to 64 46%), regions of the province outside Montreal and Quebec City (44%), on the North Shore (45%) and among those who support independence (75%). CAQ draws support from the youngest (20%), the wealthier ($80K to $100K 18%, $100K to $250K 20%) and in Quebec City (22%). Of note, 4 in 10 past CAQ voters will vote Liberal this time (39%), while one seventh will vote PQ (15%). Just 4 in 10 will vote CAQ again this time (41%). Possibility of tight PQ majority If these results are projected up to seats in a 125 seat National Assembly, the PQ are destined to capture 63, or a one seat majority. The Liberals would claim 58 seats, while CAQ and QS would take just 2 seats each. Marois has lowest favourables All three major party leaders draw the approval of about one third of voters (Marois 34%, Couillard 34%, Legault 32%), but Pauline Marois has the most negative net favourable (approve minus disapprove) at 24, compared to 13 for Philippe Couillard and 17 for Francois Legault. MEDIA INQUIRIES: lbozinoff@ HIGHLIGHTS: Equal proportions, about 4 in 10, will vote for the Liberals (40%) or the Parti Quebecois (38%) which represents a statistical tie on this sample size. If these results are projected up to seats in a 125 seat National Assembly, the PQ are destined to capture 63, or a one set majority. All three major party leaders draw the approval of about one third of voters (Marois 34%, Couillard 34%, Legault 32%), but Pauline Marois has the most negative net favourable (approve minus disapprove) at 24, compared to 13 for Philippe Couillard and 17 for Francois Legault. 1

2 One third support independence for Quebec One third of voters (34%) say yes when asked "Do you agree Quebec should be an independent country?", a question derived from the original Scottish Independence Referendum question. Support for independence is especially common to the youngest (41%), s (39%), PQ voters (71%), QS supporters (71%) and on the South Shore (39%). Opposition to independence (66% in total) is especially characteristic of the oldest (71%), mid income groups ($40K to $60K 71%), Anglophones (95%) and Allophones (77%), Liberal supporters (96%), CAQistes (85%) and in Quebec City (73%). Of note, 3 in 10 PQ voters do not support independence (29%) whereas just one twentieth of Liberal voters (4%) and one seventh of CAQ voters do (15%). At this point, this is anybody's race. The leaders are tied in voter preference, and practically tied in seats. The successful party in this campaign will be the one with the best ground war," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@ or at (416) HIGHLIGHTS: One third of voters (34%) say yes when asked "Do you agree Quebec should be an independent country?", a question derived from the original Scottish Independence Referendum question. At this point, this is anybody's race. The leaders are tied in voter preference, and practically tied in seats. The successful party in this campaign will be the one with the best ground war," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. 2

3 Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 951 randomly selected Québécois 18 years of age and older. The poll was conducted on. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/ 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at 3

4 Provincial Election Voting Preference Trending % Liberal PQ CAQ QS Green ON Other Mar 5 th, 2014 (n=951) Oct. 22 nd, 2013 (n=1094) Sept. 13 th, 2013 (n=1179) Election Seat Distribution Trending % Liberal PQ CAQ QS Mar 5 th, 2014 (n=951) Oct. 22 nd, 2013 (n=1094) Sept. 13 th, 2013 (n=1179) Election Quebec Independence Opinion Trending % Sample Yes No Mar 5 th, Sep 26 th, Quebec Provincial Party Leader Approval Rating Trending (% Approve) % Sample Marois Couillard Legault Mar 5 th, Oct 22 nd, Sep 13 th,

5 Vote Preference Which party are you most likely to vote for in the provincial election on April 7? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? [Decided / Leaning] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other Region / Language % Total Mon QC ROC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other

6 Household Income % Total <$20K $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $40K $60K $80K $100K $250K $250K+ Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other Past Vote % Total PLQ PQ CAQ QS PVQ ON Other Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other Support for Independent Quebec % Total Yes No Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other

7 Approval of Pauline Marois Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pauline Marois is doing as premier? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Region / Language % Total Mon QC ROC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Household Income % Total <$20K $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $40K $60K $80K $100K $250K $250K+ Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Current Vote Preference % Total PLQ PQ CAQ QS PVQ ON Other Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

8 Support for Independent Quebec % Total Yes No Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

9 Approval of Philippe Couillard Do you approve or disapprove of the job Philippe Couillard is doing as Leader of the Opposition? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Region / Language % Total Mon QC ROC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Household Income % Total <$20K $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $40K $60K $80K $100K $250K $250K+ Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Current Vote Preference % Total PLQ PQ CAQ QS PVQ ON Other Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

10 Support for Independent Quebec % Total Yes No Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

11 Approval of Francois Legault Do you approve or disapprove of the job Francois Legault is doing as Leader of the Coalition Avenir Quebec or CAQ? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Region / Language % Total Mon QC ROC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Household Income % Total <$20K $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $40K $60K $80K $100K $250K $250K+ Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Current Vote Preference % Total PLQ PQ CAQ QS PVQ ON Other Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

12 Support for Independent Quebec % Total Yes No Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know

13 Support for Independent Quebec Do you agree Quebec should be an independent country? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Yes No Region / Language % Total Mon QC ROC N Shore S Shore Non Sample Yes No Household Income % Total <$20K $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $40K $60K $80K $100K $250K $250K+ Sample Yes No Current Vote Preference % Total PLQ PQ CAQ QS PVQ ON Other Sample Yes No For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) Fax: (416) E mail: lbozinoff@ 13