POLSCI 299S Civil War

Transcription

1 Duke University Department of Political Science POLSCI 299S Civil War Spring 2012 Professor: Kristen A. Harkness Time: Tu 6-8:30pm Office Hours: Tu 4-5pm Room: Perkins 307 Office: Perkins Civil War is the most prevalent form of conflict today. Since the end of WWII, over one hundred civil wars have been fought across the globe many lasting for decades. These wars have been immensely destructive, accounting for the deaths of millions, the displacement of tens of millions, and the wholesale ruin of local communities and economies. Today, there are dozens of low intensity armed conflicts being waged many with the potential to explode as well as several intractable civil wars, including in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, and Somalia. This course surveys scholarly thought on the origins and processes of civil violence, drawing from the vast conflict literatures in Comparative Politics, International Relations, and Economics. Classical theoretical texts, case studies, statistical work, and formal models will all be carefully considered as we delve into the complexity and chaos that is war. The course is divided into three interrelated themes: the causes of conflict, the conduct of violence, and war termination. The first part of the course investigates the many theorized causes of civil war. We begin by studying theoretical perspectives that overlap significantly with our understandings of why interstate wars occur security dilemmas, reputation concerns, deterrence, and bargaining failure due to uncertainty, un-credible commitments, or issue indivisibility. We then examine the greed versus grievance debate, paying close attention to relative deprivation, moral economy, and lootable resource arguments. Next, we explore a range of political economy approaches that attempt to move beyond the greed/grievance dichotomy and introduce new ways of thinking about terrain, opportunity, and feasibility. Finally, we turn to work focused on the subset of civil wars deemed ethnic in character: why do ethnic groups rebel and do these wars have different causes than other civil conflicts? The second part of the course examines processes of violence during war. How do rebel groups recruit and organize themselves? What shapes the strategies and tactics of both rebels and counterinsurgents? Why are non-combatant populations so frequently the victims of both discriminate and indiscriminate violence? Can we make sense of the most senseless acts of war ethnic cleansing, genocide, and sexual violence? The final part of the course turns to war duration and termination. While civil wars can drag on for years and even decades, they do eventually end. We begin by looking at the puzzle of duration: what prevents warring parties from coming to a negotiated settlement? Who are the extremists and spoilers that seek to undermine peace processes and how can their success be prevented? If a tentative settlement is reached, new concerns then emerge that threaten to reignite conflict. Are rebel soldiers to be demobilized or integrated into national armies? Given how frequently they fail, are negotiated settlements even worth the effort? or should we let a clear military victor emerge? What role should the international community

2 play in the consolidation of peace? Finally, we look specifically at proposed solutions to ethnic civil wars. Can power-sharing or consociational democracy work? Or should ethnic groups be partitioned into separate territories? Required Texts and Materials Books on order at the bookstore: Fortna, Virginia Page Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents Choices After Civil War. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Gurr, Ted Why Men Rebel. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Horowitz, Donald Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press. Kalyvas, Stathis The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Nagl, John A Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam. London: Praeger. Scott, James C Moral Economy of the Peasant: Rebellion and Subsistence in South East Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press. Weinstein, Jeremy M Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Unless otherwise noted, all other readings have been placed on E-Reserves, available through either the library or the course Blackboard site. Please have the readings available to you in class either by bringing a laptop or by printing hard copies. Assignments PhD Students: have the choice of writing either 3 discussion papers (8-10 pages each) or 1 research paper (25-30 pages). Discussion Papers (8-10 pages): Each discussion paper should focus on a different week of readings and is due at the beginning of the class in which they are discussed. These papers should be literature reviews with a spin and can be modeled (in miniature) along the lines of the review essays that frequently appear in journals such as World Politics and the Annual Review of Political Science. Begin with a clear question that at least some of the readings directly address. Then present a sketch of the major theories (explanations) and your assessment of them. Some weeks will lend themselves to a critical discussion of competing research designs, others to issues in concept formation, measurement, data limitations, or another angle of analysis. Finally, present your own perspective on how research on this question should move forward.

3 Research Paper (25-30 pages): The goal here is to produce a paper that you could present at conferences and potentially publish in a journal. To do this, you must move beyond merely critiquing the work of others and push to contribute to our knowledge of the world. In other words, you must collect and analyze data in a compelling and original way. You may choose any topic related to civil war and employ whichever research methods you think best to answer your question. Whether qualitative or quantitative, a good article begins with a compelling question, critiques the current state of the literature related to that question, and then proposes a way to move forward (which it will then enact). The structure of the remainder of the paper will depend on its research design. Public Policy Students: may choose from the options above for PhD students or may write 3 policy papers (8-10 pages each). Policy Papers (8-10 pages): Each policy paper should focus on a different week of readings and is due at the beginning of the class in which they are discussed. In these papers, it is your job to bridge the gap between academia and the real world. Identify an issue or question of pressing concern to contemporary decision-makers and then distill from the readings what guidelines or lessons (if any) academic scholarship has to offer. Undergraduate Students: must write 2 reaction papers and a final research paper (a total of pages). Reaction Papers (2-3 pages): Each reaction paper should focus on a different week of readings and is due at the beginning of the class in which they are discussed. Identify a small set of competing claims from all that you have read 2 or maybe 3 authors that strongly disagree in their explanation of something. In your paper, summarize the debate you have identified and develop an opinion of who is right (if anyone) based on a critical evaluation of the evidence they have presented. Research Paper (15 pages): Write an original research paper that contributes to your knowledge of civil war. You may choose to either focus on understanding a single case or, for those with statistics training, a general trend within a large set of cases. Develop a compelling research question and then a clear argument (thesis) that answers that question. The best papers will engage with at least some of the existing scholarly literature on their topic (why hasn t it answered your question fully?), pay careful attention to the evidence, and identify potential counter-arguments to their claims and provide additional evidence against them. You should incorporate at least sources into your paper, including no less than 2 books and 4 peer-reviewed articles. For further guidance, please consult with me after you have decided upon a question and basic approach (case study or statistics).

4 Final Grades Graduate Students: 75% Research Paper 25% Participation or 20% Discussion/Policy Paper I 25% Discussion/Policy Paper II 30% Discussion/Policy Paper III 25% Participation Undergraduate Students: 15% Reaction Paper I 20% Reaction Paper II 40% Research Paper 25% Participation Participation: Active participation is essential. It is expected that each person will have read all assigned selections prior to class and be prepared to significantly contribute to the discussion. If the methodology of a paper surpasses your training, do the best you can to understand its research question, assumptions, and conclusions. Important Dates Jan 17 (Tu): First Day of Class Apr 17 (Tu): Last Day of Class All Short Papers Must Be Completed May 5 (Sat): Research Paper Due Course Policies Academic Integrity: In all their work, students are expected to comply with the Duke Community Standard. You must cite your sources properly and fully acknowledge the origins of all data, facts, ideas, arguments, or interpretations you rely on in your own work. Suspected cases of plagiarism, cheating, or other acts of academic dishonesty will be punished to the fullest extent possible. Late Assignments: Short papers are due no later than the beginning of the class in which their topic is discussed. Without exception, late papers will not be graded. If you think you may fail to meet the deadline, plan to submit a paper during another week. You have control over which papers you choose to write, and that flexibility should be sufficient to alleviate scheduling

5 burdens. The research paper deadline is firm except in cases of medical or family emergency or religious observance. If, due to such circumstances you cannot meet the deadline, please contact the instructor as soon as possible to work out an acceptable alternative due date. Attendance: Attendance is essential to your participation grade. You may miss one class without penalty. With the instructor s approval, you may make up additional excused absences by completing extra writing assignments. More than three absences may constitute grounds for failing the course. Office Hours: Normal, drop-in office hours are on Wednesdays from 4-5pm no appointment necessary but bring something to read in case you have to wait. If this time does not work with your schedule, I am also happy to meet with you by appointment (just me). Paper Formatting: Writing assignments must be word-processed. Proofread your writing for typographical, grammatical, and punctuation errors. If you consistently make these kinds of errors, your grade will drop. Avoid computer disaster by regularly saving your work and, ideally, using an internet-based back-up service such as dropbox. Periodically printing out drafts or ing them to yourself while you write can also avert tragedy. For research papers, include a title page with your name, the title of the paper, the course, my name, and the date. Also make sure to use: Times 12 or its close equivalent (usually the default setting) 1 margins all around Double-spacing Page numbers if your first page is a title page, set this page number to 0 (in Word, select Page Numbers from the Insert menu, and click on Format ) A standard citation style (Chicago, APA, etc.) Weekly Overview with Readings Introduction Week 1 (Jan 17): State of the Literature, Concepts, and Data (227 pages) Mueller, John The Banality of Ethnic War. International Security 25(1): Kalyvas, Stathis New and Old Civil Wars: A Valid Distinction? World Politics 54(1): Sambinas, Nicholas What is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(6): Kalyvas, Stathis and Matthew Kocher Ethnic Cleavages and Irregular War: Iraq and Vietnam. Politics & Society 35(2): Blattman, Christopher and Edward Miguel Civil War. NBER Working Paper At [accessed October 26, 2011]. Themnér, Lotta and Peter Wallensteen Armed Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 48(4):

6 Part I: Causes Week 2 (Jan 24): Theories from International Conflict (239 pages) Posen, Barry The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict. Survival 35(1): Fearon, James D Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49(3): Snyder, Jack and Robert Jervis Civil War and the Security Dilemma. In Barbara F. Walter and Jack Snyder, eds., Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention. New York: Columbia University Press Powell, Robert Bargaining Theory and International Conflict. Annual Review of Political Science 5: Powell, Robert War as a Commitment Problem. International Organization 60(1): Walter, Barbara F Information, Uncertainty, and the Decision to Secede. International Organization 60(1): Walter, Barbara F Reputation and Civil War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [chapters 1-2: 3-38] Hasner, Ron War on Sacred Grounds. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. [chapters 3-4: 37-68] Week 3 (Jan 31): Greed and Grievance (430 pages) Gurr, Ted Why Men Rebel. Princeton: Princeton University Press. [focus on chapters 1-5: 3-154] Scott, James C Moral Economy of the Peasant: Rebellion and Subsistence in South East Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press. [focus on chapters 1-2, 5, 7: 13-55, , ] Collier, Paul Doing Well Out of War: An Economic Perspective. In Mats R. Berdal and David M. Malone, eds., Greed and Grievance: Economic Agendas in Civil War. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Collier, Paul and Anke Hoeffler Greed and Grievance in Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 56: Ross, Michael What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War? Journal of Peace Research 41(3): Humphreys, Macartan Natural Resources, Conflict, and Conflict Resolution. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(4): Ross, Michael A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War. Annual Review of Political Science 9(1): Week 4 (Feb 7): Beyond Greed and Grievance Terrain, Opportunity, and Feasibility (277 pages) Ballentine, Karen. 2003, Beyond Greed and Grievance: Reconsidering the Economic Dynamics of Armed Conflict. In Karen Ballentine and Jake Sherman, eds., The Political Economy of Armed Conflict. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. [chapter 10: ] Miguel, Edward, Shanker Satyanath and Ernest Sergenti Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach. Journal of Political Economy 112(4): Sambanis, Nicholas Using Case Studies to Expand Economic Models of Civil War. Perspectives on Politics 2(2): Fearon, James D Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(4): Salehyan, Idean and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch Refugees and the Spread of Civil War. International Organization 60(2):

7 Boix, Carles Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World. World Politics 60(3): Collier, Paul, Anke Hoeffler and Dominic Rohner Beyond Greed and Grievance: Feasibility and Civil War. Oxford Economic Papers 61: Staniland, Paul Cities on Fire: Social Mobilization, State Policy, and Urban Insurgency. Comparative Political Studies 43(12): Bazzi, Samuel and Christopher Blattman Economic Shocks and Conflict: The (Absence of) Evidence from Commodity Prices. Working Paper. At [accessed November 28, 2011]. Week 5 (Feb 14): Ethnicity (288 pages plus more Horowitz) Horowitz, Donald Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press. [all read chapters 1-2: 3-94; divide and conquer the rest] Fearon, James and David Laitin Violence and the Social Construction of Ethnic Identity. International Organization 54(4): Sambanis, Nicholas Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(3): Fearon, James and David Laitin Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War. American Political Science Review 97(1): Toft, Monica Duffy The Geography of Ethnic Violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press. [chapters 2-3: 17-44] Varshney, Ashutosh Nationalism, Ethnic Conflict, and Rationality. Perspective on Politics 1(1): Fearon, James, Kimuli Kasara and David Laitin Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset. American Political Science Review 101(1): Habyarimana, James, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel Posner, and Jeremy Weinstein Is Ethnic Conflict Inevitable? Better Institutions, Not Partition. Foreign Affairs (JulyAugust): Wimmer, Andreas, Brian Min and Lars-Erik Cederman Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set. American Sociological Review 74(2): Cederman, Lars-Erik, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis. World Politics 62(1): Fearon, James and David Laitin Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War. World Development 39(2): Part II: Conduct Week 6 (Feb 21): Rebel Recruitment and Organization (333 pages) Olson, Mancur The Rise and Decline of Nations. New Haven: Yale University Press. [chapter 2: 17-35] Gates, Scott Recruitment and Allegiance: The Microfoundations of Rebellion. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(1): Weinstein, Jeremy Resources and the Information Problem in Rebel Recruitment. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49: Kalyvas, Stathis and Mathew Kocher How Free is Free Riding in Civil Wars? Violence, Insurgency, and the Collective Action Problem. World Politics 59(2):

8 Weinstein, Jeremy Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [focus on chapters 1-4: ] Humphreys, Macartan and Jeremy Weinstein Who fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War. American Journal of Political Science 52(2): Johnston, Patrick The Geography of Insurgent Organization and Its Consequences for Civil Wars: Evidence from Liberia and Sierra Leone. Security Studies 17: Beber, Bernd and Christopher Blattman The Industrial Organization of Rebellion: The Logic of Forced Labor and Child Soldiering. Working Paper. At [accessed November 28, 2011]. Week 7 (Feb 28): Rebel Tactics (325 pages) Mkandawire, Thandika The Terrible Toll of Post-Colonial Rebel Movements in Africa: Towards an Explanation of the Violence Against the Peasantry. Journal of Modern African Studies 40(2): Hultman, Lisa Battle Losses and Rebel Violence: Raising the Costs for Fighting. Terrorism and Political Violence 19(2): Reno, William Patronage Politics and the Behavior of Armed Groups. Civil Wars 9(4): Weinstein, Jeremy Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. [focus on Introduction, chapters 5-7: 1-26, ] Lyall, Jason Does Indiscriminate Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks?: Evidence from Chechnya. Journal of Conflict Resolution 53: Metelits, Claire Inside Insurgency: Violence, Civilians, and Revolutionary Group Behavior. New York: New York University Press. [chapters 2-3: 15-77] *** Spring Break*** Week 8 (Mar 13): Counter-Insurgency Tactics (294 pages) Mack, Andrew Why Big Nations Lose Small Wars: The Politics of Asymmetric Conflict. World Politics 27(2): Arreguín-Toft, Ivan How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict. International Security 26(1): Nagl, John A Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam: Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife. London: Praeger. [chapters 1-2: 3-33; chapters 4-5: ] Zhukov, Yuri Examining the Authoritarian Model of Counter-Insurgency: The Soviet Campaign Against the Ukrainian Insurgent Army. Small Wars and Insurgencies 18(3): Bermin, Eli, Jacob Shapiro and Joseph H. Felter Can Hearts and Minds Be Bought? The Economics of Counterinsurgency in Iraq. NBER Working Paper Biddle, Stephen, Wendy Brown, Jeffrey C. Issac, and Stathis Kaylvas Review Symposium: The New U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual. Perspectives on Politics 6(2): Gentile, Gian P A Strategy of Tactics: Population-centric COIN and the Army. Parameters (Autumn): At [accessed January 6, 2012]. Lyall, Jason and Isaiah Wilson III Rage Against the Machines: Explaining Outcomes in Counterinsurgency Wars. International Organization 63(1):

9 Lyall, Jason Are Co-Ethnics More Effective Counter-Insurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War. American Political Science Review 104(1): Week 9 (Mar 20): More on Strategy and Civilian Victimization (422 pages) Humphreys, Macartan and Jeremy Weinstein Handling and Manhandling Civilians in Civil War. American Political Science Review 100(3): Kalyvas, Stathis The Logic of Violence in Civil Wars. [focus on chapters 1-9: 1-329; skim rest if time permits] Downes, Alexander Draining the Sea by Filling the Graves: Investigating the Effectiveness of Indiscriminate Violence as a Counterinsurgency Strategy. Civil Wars 9(4): Sambanis, Nicholas Terrorism and Civil War. In Phillip Keefer and Norman Loayza, eds., Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Kocher, Matthew Adam, Thomas B. Pepinsky and Stathis N. Kalyvas Aerial Bombing and Counterinsurgency in the Vietnam War. American Journal of Political Science 55(2): Week 10 (Mar 27): Ethnic Cleansing, Genocide, and Sexual Violence (303 pages) Malcolm, Noel Bosnia: A Short History. New York: New York University Press. [chapters & epilogue: ] Mamdani, Mahmood When Victims Become Killers: Colonialism, Nativism, and the Genocide in Rwanda. Princeton: Princeton University Press. [chapters 3, 7: , ] Harf, Barbara No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since American Political Science Review 97(1): Valentino, Benjamin A Final Solutions: Mass Killing and Genocide in the 20 th Century. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. [chapter 3: 66-90] Wood, Elisabeth Variation in Sexual Violence During War. Politics and Society 34(3): Wood, Elisabeth Armed Groups and Sexual Violence: When is Wartime Rape Rare? Politics and Society 37(1): Cohen, Dara Kay Causes of Sexual Violence During Civil War. Working Paper. [will ] Part III: Termination Week 11 (must reschedule): Duration and Spoiler Problems (230 pages) Holl, Jane E When War Doesn t Work: Understanding the Relationship between the Battlefield and the Negotiating Table. In Roy Licklider, ed., Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End. New York: New York University Press Stedman, Stephen Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes. International Security 22(2): Walter, Barbara The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement. International Organization 51(3): Kydd, Andrew and Barbara Walter Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence. International Organization 56(2): Fearon, James Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others? Journal of Peace Research 41(3):

10 Cunningham, David E Veto Players and Civil War Duration. American Journal of Political Science 50(4): Greenhill, Kelly M. and Solomon Major. 2006/7. The Perils of Profiling: Civil War Spoilers and the Collapse of Peace Accords. International Security 31(3): Toft, Monica Duffy Ending Civil Wars: A Case for Rebel Victory? International Security 34(4): Week 12 (Apr 10): Peace Processes and Transition Including International Intervention (293 pages) Licklider, Roy The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, American Political Science Review 89(3): Mason, David T. and Patrick J. Fett How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40(4): Atlas, Pierre M. and Roy Licklider Conflict Among Former Allies After Civil War Settlement: Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, and Lebanon. Journal of Peace Research 36(1): Luttwak, Edward N Give War a Chance. Foreign Affairs 78(4): Walter, Barbara Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace. International Security 24(1): Hartzell, Caroline, Mathew Hodie and Donald Rothchild Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War. International Organization 55(1): Fortna, Virginia Page Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents Choices After Civil War. Princeton: Princeton University Press. [chapters 1-2, 4-7: 1-46, ] Glassmyer, Katherine and Nicholas Sambanis Rebel-Military Integration and Civil War Termination. Journal of Peace Research 45(3): Derouen Jr., Karl, Jenna Lea and Peter Wallensteem The Duration of Civil War Peace Agreements. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26(4): Week 13 (Apr 17): Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars (306 pages) Lijphart, Arend Democracy in Plural Societies: A Comparative Exploration. New Haven: Yale University Press. [chapters 2, 5: 25-52, ] Smooha, Sammy and Theodor Hanf The Diverse Modes of Conflict-Regulation in Deeply Divided Societies. International Journal of Comparative Sociology 33(1-2): Kaufmann, Chaim Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars. International Security 20(4): Kaufmann, Chaim When All Else Fails: Evaluating Population Transfers and Partition as Solutions to Ethnic Conflict. In Barbara F. Walter and Jack Snyder, eds., Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention. New York: Columbia University press Sambanis, Nicholas Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War: An Empirical Critique of the Theoretical Literature. World Politics 52(4): Kuperman, Alan J Is Partition Really the Only Hope? Reconciling Contradictory Findings About Ethnic Civil Wars. Security Studies 13(4): Johnson, Carter Partitioning to Peace: Sovereignty, Demography, and Ethnic Civil Wars. International Security 32(4): Sambanis, Nicholas and Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl What s in a Line? Is Partition a Solution to Civil War? International Security 34(2):