Final results update for the 1999 New Zealand general election

Transcription

1 Final results update for the 1999 New Zealand general election 1999/9 23 December 1999 This paper updates Background Note no 7: Provisional results for the 1999 New Zealand general election. Executive Summary The Results With special votes counted: A Labour/Alliance coalition holds 59 of the 120 Parliamentary seats, Labour with 49 seats and the Alliance with 10. The Green gains 7 seats in the House at the expense of Labour (3), National (2), New Zealand First (1), and the Alliance (1). The Labour retains the six Maori seats. Voter participation was 83.1 percent of registered voters, excluding disallowed votes, which is slightly lower than recent elections. The final results of the general election gave the Labour 38.7 percent of the party vote. This enables them to bring 8 list MPs in addition to their 41 electorate MPs into the Parliament. Details for all the parties are presented in Table 1 and Table 2. Of the 120 MPs, 32 were not MPs in the most recent session of the House. Two are returning MPs from earlier sessions, and 30 are MPs. Of these 32, 14 are list MPs and the remaining 18 are electorate MPs. The MPs are spread across five parties: Labour 14, National 8, Green 5, ACT 3, and the Alliance 2. Table 1: New Zealand parliamentary election results 1999; party vote and allocation of seats Vote Electorate List Total Provisional Final Final (%) Seats Seats Seats Labour 716, , National 563, , Alliance 144, , ACT 128, , Green 89, , NZ First 78,480 87, United NZ 9,948 11, Other 108, , Total 1,840,165 2,065, Note: Parties in the Other category include Animals First (0.2%), Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis (1.1%), Christian Heritage of New Zealand (2.4%), Freedom Movement (<0.1%), Future New Zealand (1.1%), Libertarianz (0.3%), McGillicuddy Serious (0.2%), Mana Maori Movement (0.3%), Mauri Pacific (0.2%), Natural Law (0.1%), NMP (0.1%), OneNZ (0.1%), Republican (<0.1%), South Island (0.1%), The People s Choice (<0.1%).

2 Table 2: Net changes in party seats and proportion of party vote from the 1996 general election 1996 Election (final) 1999 Election (provisional) Total seats 1999 Election (final) Percentage of Vote Percentage change 1996 to (final) Swing 1996 to 1999 final National % 33.8% 30.5% -3.3% Labour % 28.2% 38.7% +10.5% NZ First % 13.4% 4.3% -9.1% Alliance % 10.1% 7.7% -2.4% ACT % 6.1% 7.0% +0.9% Green % 0.0% 5.2% +5.2% United % 0.9% 0.5% -0.4% Other % 7.5% 6.1% -1.4% Total % 100.0% 100.0% 0% Note: Appendix One details the Members of Parliament by party. Final results: the changing landscape Special votes had a significant effect upon the election outcome, with the Green gaining the seat of Coromandel, exceeding the 5 percent threshold in party votes, and obtaining seven seats in the House. The inclusion of the Green saw the departure of Labour s John Blincoe, Eru George and Lynne Pillay, National s Murray McLean and Arthur Anae, Alliance s Mark Ryan, and New Zealand First s Ian Walker. The redistribution of seats sees the Labour/Alliance coalition lose their 3 seat majority; they now hold 59 of the 120 seats. This degree of change after the counting of special votes did not occur in the first MMP election in 1996 when special votes failed to overturn any of the election day results in the marginal electorates. In the 1993 First-Past-the- Post (FPP) election, special votes overturned the provisional result for the seat of Waitaki, resulting in National maintaining a one seat majority over the combined opposition. The final outcome of party votes differed significantly from those cast on election day. The Green s share of final votes was 0.3 percentage points greater than their proportion of total party votes cast on election day. Labour, National and the Alliance all had poorer final party vote percentage outcomes and ACT s share of the final vote increased slightly (0.04 percentage points) compared with votes cast on election day (Figure 1). Figure 1: Change in total percentage of party votes from provisional to final results % 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% Labour National Alliance ACT Green NZ First United NZ O ther -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% 2

3 Voter participation rate The participation rate for the 1999 election was 83.1 percent, excluding disallowed votes. This rate is slightly lower than voter turnout in the 1990 and 1993 elections (both 83.3%), and down on the 86.0 percent participation rate in the 1996 election (all excluding disallowed votes) (Figure 2). Figure 2: Voter participation rates for the general elections % Percentage (%) 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% P a rtic ip a tio n rate (includes va lid, in fo rm a l and disallowed votes) P a rtic ip a tio n rate (valid & inform al votes only) 50.0% Year Notes: (1) The participation rate most often quoted is that which includes valid, informal and disallowed votes. The number of disallowed votes for the 1999 general election is currently unavailable. Over the last six elections, disallowed votes have on average accounted for two percent of votes cast, therefore the turnout for the 1999 election is estimated to have been approximately 85 percent. (2) Informal votes include votes cast by electors, qualified to vote, which are not counted because the ballot paper did not clearly indicate for whom the voter desired to vote. (3) Disallowed votes are all special votes disallowed under regulations 34, 37, 51 or 52 of the Electoral Regulations. The Electorates In the 1999 election, Labour won the most electorate seats with 41 (61.2%) of the 67 seats. National gained 22 (32.8%) of the electorate seats. The Alliance, New Zealand First, Green and United parties gained one electorate seat (1.5%) each. Appendix 2 gives details for all 67 electorate seats with final majorities and swings in electorate votes. Table 3 shows the electorate seats with the five largest and five smallest majorities. Table 3: The five electorates with the largest and the smallest majorities Largest Majority % of total Smallest Majority % of total No. Electorate Majority vote No. Electorate Majority vote 1 New Plymouth Labour 15, % 1 Tauranga NZ First % 2 Palmerston North Labour 13, % 2 Coromandel Green % 3 Mt Albert Labour 13, % 3 Northcote Labour % 4 Manurewa Labour 13, % 4 Rangitikei National % 5 Mangere Labour 13, % 5 Hamilton East National % Note: This table excludes the 37 missing ballot papers for Mangere and the 120 missing ballot papers for Rangitikei. Selected references New Zealand Official Yearbook 1998, Wellington, Statistics New Zealand, The New Zealand Electoral Commission, Grant Cleland Parliamentary Library For more information contact Grant (ext. 9173) Copyright NZ Parliamentary Library Except for educational purposes permitted under the Copyright Act 1994, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including information storage and retrieval systems, other than by Members of Parliament in the course of their official duties, without the consent of the Parliamentary Librarian, Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand. 3

4 APPENDIX ONE: Members of Parliament by as elected Notes: (1) Bold text represents Electorate MPs. (2) refers to MPs. (3) R refers to the two MPs who have been MPs in sessions prior to LABOUR PARTY ACT NZ NATIONAL PARTY BARKER, Rick BARNETT, Tim BENSON-POPE, David BEYER, Georgina BRAYBROOKE, Geoff BURTON, Mark CARTER, Chris CHADWICK, Stephanie CLARK, Rt Hon. Helen COSGROVE, Clayton CULLEN, Hon. Dr Michael CUNLIFFE, David DALZIEL, Lianne DUNCAN, Helen DUYNHOVEN, Harry DYSON, Ruth FIELD, Taito Phillip GALLAGHER, Martin GOFF, Hon. Phil GOSCHE, Mark HARTLEY, Ann HAWKE, Joe HAWKINS, George HOBBS, Marian HODGSON, Pete HOROMIA, Parekura HUNT, Rt Hon. Jonathan KEALL, Judy KELLY, Graham KING, Hon. Annette LABAN, Winnie MACKEY, Janet MAHAREY, Steve MAHUTA, Nanaia MALLARD, Trevor O CONNOR, Damien OKEROA, Mahara PECK, Mark PETTIS, Jill RIRINUI, Mita ROBERTSON, Ross SAMUELS, Dover SUTTON, Hon. Jim SWAIN, Paul TAMIHERE, John TIZARD, Judith TURIA, Tariana WILSON, Margaret YATES, Dianne R R AWATERE HUATA, Donna ECKHOFF, Gerry FRANKS, Stephen HIDE, Rodney JENNINGS, Owen NEWMAN, Dr Muriel PREBBLE, Hon. Richard SHIRLEY, Hon. Kenneth WEBSTER, Penny ALLIANCE ANDERTON, Jim BUNKLE, Phillida CAMPBELL, Kevin GILLON, Grant GORDON, Liz HARRE, Laila JACKSON, Willie LEE, Sandra ROBSON, Matt WRIGHT, John GREEN BRADFORD, Sue DONALD, Rod EWEN-STREET, Ian FITZSIMONS, Jeanette KEDGLEY, Sue LOCKE, Keith TANCZOS, Nandor NEW ZEALAND FIRST BROWN, Peter DONNELLY, Hon. Brian MARK, Ron PETERS, Rt Hon. Winston WOOLERTON, Doug UNITED DUNNE, Hon. Peter ARDERN, Shane BRADFORD, Hon. Max BROWNLEE, Gerry CARTER, Hon. David CARTER, John CREECH, Rt Hon. Wyatt ENGLISH, Hon. Bill HASLER, Marie HEATLEY, Philip HERLIHY, Gavan HUTCHISON, Paul KIDD, Hon. Doug KYD, Warren LUXTON, Hon. John MAPP, Dr Wayne McCULLY, Hon. Murray McKINNON, Rt Hon. Don NEESON, Brian POWER, Simon RICH, Katherine ROY, Eric RYALL, Hon. Tony SCOTT, Lynda SHIPLEY, Rt Hon. Jenny SIMCOCK, Bob SIMICH, Hon. Clem SMITH, Dr the Hon. Lockwood SMITH, Hon. Nick SOWRY, Hon. Roger STEEL, Tony Te HEUHEU, Hon. Georgina TISCH, Lindsay TOLLEY, Anne UPTON, Rt Hon. Simon VERNON, Belinda WILLIAMSON, Hon. Maurice WONG, Pansy WORTH, Richard YOUNG, Annabel 4

5 APPENDIX TWO: Final Results for the 1999 General Election Members of Parliament by Electorate. Swing (%) to Winning change in New MP to the Electorate (1) Member Margin (2) Seat House Albany McCULLY, Hon. Murray National 4, % Aoraki SUTTON, Hon. Jim Labour 7, % Auckland Central TIZARD, Judith Labour 5, % Banks Peninsula DYSON, Ruth Labour 1, % Yes Bay of Plenty RYALL, Hon. Tony National 7, % Christchurch Central BARNETT, Tim Labour 9, % Christchurch East DALZIEL, Lianne Labour 11, % Clutha-Southland ENGLISH, Hon. Bill National 6, % Coromandel FITZSIMONS, Jeanette Green % Yes Dunedin North HODGSON, Pete Labour 12, % Dunedin South BENSON-POPE, David Labour 10, % Yes East Coast (3) MACKEY, Janet Labour 3, % Epsom WORTH, Richard National 1, % Yes Hamilton East STEEL, Tony National % Hamilton West GALLAGHER, Martin Labour 1, % Yes R (4) Hunua KYD, Warren National 5, % Hutt South MALLARD, Trevor Labour 8, % Ilam BROWNLEE, Gerry National 6, % Invercargill PECK, Mark Labour 7, % Kaikoura SCOTT, Lynda National 1, % Yes Karapiro TISCH, Lindsay National 5, % Yes Mana KELLY, Graham Labour 5, % Mangere FIELD, Taito Phillip Labour 13,047 (5) 12.7% Manukau East ROBERTSON, Ross Labour 7, % Manurewa HAWKINS, George Labour 13, % Maungakiekie GOSCHE, Mark Labour 2, % Yes Mt Albert (3) CLARK, Rt Hon. Helen Labour 13, % Mt Roskill (3) GOFF, Hon. Phil Labour 9, % Napier BRAYBROOKE, Geoff Labour 11, % Nelson SMITH, Hon. Nick National 4, % New Plymouth DUYNHOVEN, Harry Labour 15, % North Shore MAPP, Dr Wayne National 7, % Northcote HARTLEY, Ann Labour % Yes Yes Northland CARTER, John National 5, % Ohariu-Belmont DUNNE, Hon. Peter United 12, % Otago HERLIHY, Gavan National 2, % Otaki KEALL, Judy Labour 7, % Pakuranga WILLIAMSON, Hon. Maurice National 5, % Palmerston North MAHAREY, Steve Labour 13, % Port Waikato HUTCHISON, Paul National 3, % Yes Rakaia SHIPLEY, Rt Hon. Jenny National 10, % Rangitikei POWER, Simon National 289 (5,6) 5.8% Yes Rimutaka SWAIN, Paul Labour 8, % Rodney SMITH, Dr the Hon. Lockwood National 6, % Rongotai KING, Hon. Annette Labour 12, % 5

6 Swing (%) to Winning change in New MP to the Electorate (1) Member Margin (2) Seat House Rotorua CHADWICK, Stephanie Labour 4, % Yes Yes Tamaki SIMICH, Hon. Clem National 4, % Taranaki-King Cnt ARDERN, Shane National 6, % Taupo BURTON, Mark Labour 3, % Tauranga PETERS, Rt Hon. Winston NZ First 63 (6) -19.7% Te Atatu (3) CARTER, Chris Labour 9, % Yes R (4) Titirangi CUNLIFFE, David Labour 5,800 New Seat (7) Yes Tukituki BARKER, Rick Labour 8, % Waimakariri COSGROVE, Clayton Labour 1, % Yes Wairarapa BEYER, Georgina Labour 3, % Yes Yes Waitakere NEESON, Brian National 4, % Wellington Central HOBBS, Marian Labour 1, % Yes West Coast/Tasman O CONNOR, Damien Labour 7, % Whanganui PETTIS, Jill Labour 3, % Whangarei HEATLEY, Philip National 1, % Yes Wigram ANDERTON, Jim Alliance 9, % Hauraki TAMIHERE, John Labour 7,238 New Seat (7) Yes Ikaroa-Rawhiti HOROMIA, Parekura Labour 695 (8) Yes Yes Te Tai Hauauru MAHUTA, Nanaia Labour 6,233 (8) Yes Te Tai Tokerau SAMUELS, Dover Labour 5, % Yes Te Tai Tonga OKEROA, Mahara Labour 4, % Yes Yes Waiariki RIRINUI, Mita Labour 4,369 (8) Yes Yes Notes: (1) All electorates except North Shore, Tamaki, Palmerston North, Rangitikei, New Plymouth, and Dunedin North experienced some boundary changes since the 1996 election, thus affecting margins and percentage swings. (2) The swing shows the difference in the party's percentage of the total candidate vote received between the 1996 and 1999 elections. i.e. if the party received 42% of the vote in 1996 election and 40% in 1999, the swing would equal -2%. (3) The 1999 electorate of Mt Albert is compared with the 1996 electorate of Owairaka, Mt Roskill with New Lynn, East Coast with Mahia, and Te Atatu with Waipareira when calculating the percentage swing in favour of the electorate MP. (4) Members of Parliament from previous sessions excluding (5) Figures exclude the missing ballot papers for Mangere (37) and Rangitikei (120). (6) Both Rangitikei and Tauranga had a recount of votes cast. In Rangitekei the majority was reduced to 289, down 4. In Tauranga the majority was increased by 1 to 63. (7) For the two seats of Titirangi and Hauraki there are no appropriate 1996 results with which the 1999 results can be compared in order to calculate a percentage swing. (8) For the Maori seats of Ikaroa-Rawhiti, Te Tai Hauauru and Waiariki boundary changes prevent any useful comparison with the 1996 results. 6