NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolOhioLikelyDemocraticPrimaryVoters. March2016

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1 NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolOhioLikelyDemocraticPrimaryVoters March2016

2 How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Ohio Poll of 2,458 Adults This survey of 2,458 adults was conducted March 4 th through March 10 th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Ohio were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of Ohio from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection and L2 for voter registration information. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, region, and race. Results are statistically significant within ±2.0 percentage points. There are 2,052 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.2 percentage points. Among registered voters, 694 had a phone match in the voter file and 1,358 did not. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.7 percentage points and ±2.7 percentage points, respectively. There are 974 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in Ohio includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Republican presidential primary and those who identify as Republicans or Republican leaning independents without a primary preference. There are 868 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in Ohio includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and those who identify as Democrats or Democratic leaning independents without a primary preference. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.1 percentage points and ±3.3 percentage points, respectively. There are 564 likely Republican primary voters and 453 likely Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 Ohio Republican/Democratic Presidential Primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±4.1 percentage points and ±4.6 percentage points, respectively. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio March

3 Nature of the Sample - Ohio Ohio Adults Ohio Registered Voters Col % Col % Ohio Adults Ohio Registered Voters Ohio Potential Republican Electorate Ohio Likely Republican Primary Voters Ohio Potential Democratic Electorate Ohio Likely Democratic Primary Voters Party Identification Democrat n/a 3 Republican n/a 3 Independent n/a 3 Other n/a Political Ideology Very liberal n/a Liberal n/a 1 n/a 3 Conservative n/a 2 Very conservative n/a 1 Tea Party Supporters n/a 2 Men 4 4 Women 5 5 Under or older to to to or older 2 2 White 8 8 African American 1 1 Latino Other Region Cleveland Area 1 1 North 2 2 Ohio Valley & West 2 2 Columbus Area 1 1 Cincinnati/Dayton Area 1 1 Household Income Less than $50, $50,000 or more 4 5 Not college graduate 6 6 College graduate 3 3 Marital Status Married 4 5 Not married 5 4 Evangelical Christian Yes 3 3 No 6 6 White Evangelical Christians 2 3 Practice a Religion 5 5 Does not Practice a Religion 4 4 U.S. Military Veteran Yes 1 1 No 8 8 Ohio Voter Registration List Match n/a 3 No Match n/a 6 Interview Type Landline 4 4 Cell Phone 6 5 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio Adults. Interviews conducted March 4th through March 10th, 2016, n=2458 MOE +/- 2.0 percentage points. Ohio Registered Voters: n=2052 MOE +/- 2.2 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio March

4 Nature of the Sample - Ohio Ohio Potential Democratic Electorate Ohio Likely Democratic Primary Voters Party Identification Past Participation* Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Region Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran Ohio Voter Registration List Interview Type Ohio Potential Democratic Electorate Ohio Likely Democratic Primary Voters Col % Col % Democrat 7 7 Republican Independent 2 2 Other Yes 7 8 No 2 1 Very liberal 1 1 Liberal Conservative 1 1 Very conservative Men 4 4 Women 6 5 Under or older to to to or older 3 2 White 7 7 African American 2 1 Latino Other Cleveland Area 2 2 North 2 2 Ohio Valley & West 1 1 Columbus Area 1 1 Cincinnati/Dayton Area 1 1 Less than $50, $50,000 or more 4 4 Not college graduate 6 5 College graduate 3 4 Married 4 4 Not married 5 5 Yes 3 3 No Practice a Religion 4 4 Does not Practice a Religion 5 5 Yes No 9 9 Match 3 3 No Match 6 6 Landline 4 4 Cell Phone 5 6 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio Potential Democratic Electorate. Interviews conducted March 4th through March 10th, 2016, n=868 MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points. Ohio Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n=453 MOE +/- 4.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio March

5 DoyouapproveordisapproveofthejobBarackObamaisdoingaspresident? Approve Disapprove Unsure LikelyDemocraticPrimary Voters OhioLikelyDemocratic PrimaryVoters 8 1 PartyIdentification Democrat Independent Veryliberal-Liberal HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate White AfricanAmerican to to44 45to orolder 8 1 Under45 45orolder Men Women Menunderage byage Menage45orolder Womenunderage Womenage45orolder 7 1 MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion InterviewType Landline CelPhone NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolOhioLikelyDemocraticPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedMarch4ththroughMarch10th,2016, n=453moe+/-4.6percentagepoints.totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio March

6 HilaryClinton BernieSanders Other Undecided LikelyDemocraticPrimary Voters OhioLikelyDemocratic PrimaryVoters IntensityofSupport Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport PastParticipation* Yes No PartyIdentification Democrat Independent Veryliberal-Liberal Veryliberal Liberal HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate White AfricanAmerican 18to29 30to44 45to59 60orolder Under45 45orolder Men Women byage Menunderage45 Menage45orolder Womenunderage45 Womenage45orolder MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion StateVoterRegistrationList Match NoMatch InterviewType Landline CelPhone OhioDemocraticpresidentialprimaryincludingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowarda candidateorvotedabsentee NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolOhioLikelyDemocraticPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedMarch4ththroughMarch10th,2016,n=453MOE+/-4.6percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. *PastParticipationreferstoparticipationinapreviousOhioDemocraticPresidentialPrimary. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio Tables of Likely Democratic Primary Voters NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio March

7 Wouldyousayyoustronglysupport<candidate>,somewhatsupport<candidate>,ordoyouthinkyoumightvotedifferentlyonPrimaryDay? Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Mightvotediferently Unsure DemocraticLikelyVoters OhioLikelyDemocraticPrimaryVoters withacandidatepreference 6 2 PrimarySupport HilaryClinton BernieSanders PartyIdentification Democrat Independent Veryliberal-Liberal HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore Notcolegegraduate Colegegraduate White AfricanAmerican to to44 45to orolder 7 2 Under45 45orolder Men Women Menunderage byage Menage45orolder Womenunderage Womenage45orolder 6 2 MaritalStatus Maried Notmaried StateVoterRegistrationList Match NoMatch PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion InterviewType Landline CelPhone NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolOhioLikelyDemocraticPrimaryVoterswithaCandidatePreferenceincludingabsentee.InterviewsconductedMarch4ththroughMarch10th,2016,n=410 MOE+/-4.8percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll Ohio March

NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolGeorgiaLikelyDemocraticPrimaryVoters. February2016

NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolGeorgiaLikelyDemocraticPrimaryVoters February2016 How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist Georgia Poll of 2,437 Adults This survey of 2,437 adults was