Survey of Young Americans Attitudes Toward Politics and Public Service: 18th Edition. Institute of Politics, Harvard University

Transcription

1 Survey of Young Americans Attitudes Toward Politics and Public Service: 18th Edition Institute of Politics, Harvard University October 21, 2010 For more information: Esten Perez, Director of Communications John Della Volpe, Director of Polling The Institute of Politics Harvard University 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA (617)

2 Table of Contents Introduction! Page 3 Overview..! Page 4 Demographic and Political Profile!...! Page 5 Midterm Enthusiasm Waning as Election Draws Near; Democratic Congress Preferred by Majority of Millennials!.! Page 6 Job Performance Ratings Dip Along with Direction of U.S.; A Look Ahead to 2012 White House Match-Ups...! Page Hot Buttons: Millennial Attitudes Toward Immigration, the Ground Zero Mosque and Bush-era Tax Cuts.!! Page 11 Conclusion...! Page 12 The Survey Group..! Page 13 Appendix.....! Page 14 2

3 Introduction Conceived by two Harvard undergraduate students during the winter of 1999, Harvard University s Institute of Politics Survey of Young Americans Attitudes toward Politics and Public Service began in 2000 as a national survey of 18 to 24 year old college undergraduates. Over the last ten years, this research project has grown in scope and mission, as this report now includes an analysis of 18 to 29 year olds on a broad set of longitudinal and current events issues. Methodology The first survey of N=800 college undergraduates was completed in the Spring of 2000 and all interviews were conducted over the telephone; since that time 17 subsequent surveys have been released. Over this period, a number of modifications have been made to the scope and methodology in order to ensure that sampling methods most accurately capture the view of the population of young adults in a manner that will be useful to both the Institute of Politics and the broader research and political communities. In 2001, the survey was expanded from N=800 to N=1,200 college students in order to capture a robust sample of the undergraduate population. In 2006, the survey expanded to N=2,400 interviews, as we began interviewing members of the 18 to 24 year old cohort who were not currently attending a fouryear college or university; in addition, because of changing uses of technology among younger Americans, in 2006 the survey moved from a telephone poll to a survey that was administered online. In 2009, we expanded our scope a third time to include the population of young adults aged 18 to 29. While we will continue to report on the attitudes and opinions of U.S. college students, this change in our research subject was made to allow for better and more direct comparisons to the broader set of election and general public opinion research tracking data which tends to track the 18 to 29 year old demographic group. Our Fall political tracking surveys will include samples of N=2,000 while the Spring semester s research project will be more in-depth and include N=3,000 interviews. All of our interviewing is conducted in both English and Spanish. Using Knowledge Networks as our research partner, the Institute of Politics surveys use RDD and Address-Based Sampling (ABS) frames and are administered online (see Appendix for more information). The interviewing period for this survey of N=2, to 29 year-olds was September 24 to October 4, The margin of error for the poll is +/- 2.2 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. During the interviewing period, major media stories included Stephen Colbert s Congressional testimony, the Obama Rolling Stone interview, Meg Whitman s housekeeper s accusations, Rahm Emanuel s and Rick Sanchez s resignations and the One Nation rally. IOP Polling Director John Della Volpe supervised the survey group of undergraduate students. As always, the IOP survey group would like to thank IOP Director John C. Culver and Executive Director Catherine McLaughlin for their insight and support over the course of this and all IOP projects. 3

4 Overview Even the most casual followers of American politics know that 2008 was considered by many as the Year of the Youth Vote. According to the U.S. Census CPS Survey, 51.1 percent of 18 to 29 year old citizens cast a ballot in the 2008 election for President, an increase of two percentage points from the 2004 election. 1 From 2002 to 2006, midterm voting patterns among the Millennial generation were also on the rise. The turnout of 18 to 29 year olds increased three percentage points, from 22 to 25 percent -- reversing a trend of decreased participation since Ronald Reagan s first midterm election in Our latest survey of N=2,004 young Americans between 18 and 29 years old, with interviews in both English and Spanish, takes a look at this generation s interest in the 2010 midterm elections. With interest in political engagement, likelihood of voting and opinion of each of the major political parties and the President declining steadily in the last 13 months -- it may be fair to question whether 2010 will be the year that the youth did not vote? The third comprehensive survey in less than a year, the 18th edition of the IOP Survey of Young Americans Attitudes Toward Politics and Public Service takes a careful look at: Political preferences and activity, including voting in the 2010 midterm elections; Opinions of President Obama, Democrats and Republicans in Congress; Preferences for the midterm elections and trial match-ups in the 2012 campaign for president; Interest in the Tea Party movement; Millennial attitudes toward immigration; Opinions related to hot button issues such as the Ground Zero Mosque and the Bush-era tax cuts. In addition to this report, a top-line report is available that provides responses of the total sample and college students. A SPSS data-file and verbatim responses to relevant questions are available upon request

5 Demographic and Political Profile For this survey we completed N=2,004 webenabled interviews with 18 to 29 year old young adults in the United States. Demographic profile: 51 percent male, 49 percent female; 59 percent are between the ages of 18 and 24, 41 percent are between the ages of 25 and 29; 60 percent White (non-hispanic), 19 percent Hispanic, 13 percent African- American (non-hispanic), 6 percent other and 2 percent 2+ races; 38 percent of Hispanic respondents chose to take the interview in Spanish; 22 percent are Catholic, 11 percent Protestant, 13 percent Fundamental/ Evangelical, 2 percent Jewish, 2 percent Mormon, less than one percent Muslim, 13 percent another religion, 20 percent cite no religious preference, and 11 percent decline to answer; 26 percent are married, 15 percent are living with a partner, one percent are divorced, two percent are separated and 56 percent have never been married; 80 percent own a cell phone, 35 percent have a landline, and 3 percent have VOIP; 78 percent have Internet access at home. Current educational status: 13 percent of the sample indicated that they are in a 2-year junior or community college, 19 percent in a four-year college, 4 percent in graduate school, one percent in a business or professional school, 2 percent are not enrolled but taking at least one class, and 58 percent of 18 to 29 year olds surveyed are not enrolled in any of these categories; 71 percent of college students attend a public institution, 27 percent a private one; 52 percent of students attend college in an urban area, 26 percent in a suburb and 19 percent in a small town or rural area. Political and ideological profile: 66 percent say they are registered to vote; 57 percent said they voted in the 2008 general election (43 percent at a polling place, 10 percent by absentee ballot and 4 percent early); 27 percent say they definitely will vote in the 2010 midterm elections for Congress; 18 percent consider themselves to be politically engaged or active; 37 percent self-identify as liberal or leaning liberal, 27 percent moderate and 34 percent conservative or leaning conservative; 37 percent consider themselves Democrats, 22 percent Republicans and 40 percent Independents; 11 percent are supporters of the Tea Party, 34 percent are not supporters; and 54 percent are not sure. 5

6 Midterm Enthusiasm Waning as Election Draws Near; Democrat-Congress Preferred by Majority of Millennials Interest in Midterm Election Waning In most election cycles, it is expected that interest in voting will increase as the election draws near -- in the 2010 midterm elections, interest in voting among Millennials (18-29 year olds) has been decreasing over the course of our last three surveys. Overall, 27 percent of eligible voters under the age of 30 report that they will definitely be voting in the upcoming midterm elections -- a nine percentage point decrease in 11 months. It should also be noted that 16 percent say that they will probably be voting, 21 percent say that their chances are 50-50, 18 percent say that they probably won t be voting and another 18 percent say that they definitely won t be voting. HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT YOU WILL VOTE IN THE 2010 ELECTIONS FOR CONGRESS? 36% Definitely will be voting 31% 27% 24 year olds not pursuing a four-year college education (27% say they are definitely voting ). Compared to our 2006 polling, 18 to 24 year olds in college are likely to vote at approximately the same levels this year than they were four years ago (35% say definitely vote in 2010, 34% in 2006) -- but 18 to 24 year olds not in college are less likely. In 2006, 31 percent of 18 to 24 year olds not in college indicated that they would definitely vote, the number drops to 24 percent this year. Young black voters (32% definitely) are about as likely to vote as young white voters (31%) -- and both are significantly more likely to vote on November 2, 2010 than their Hispanic counterparts. Less than one-in-five young Hispanics (17%) are planning to definitely vote in the midterm elections. In our February 2010 survey, young Republicans were significantly more enthusiastic than young Democrats -- in this survey, Republicans seem more interested in voting, but the difference between the two parties is not statistically significant (38% Republicans, 33% Democrats, 19% Independents). Male voters are more likely to vote than female voters: 31 percent compared to 23 percent. Nov Feb Oct Our survey tells us that college students between 18 and 24 years old (35% say they are definitely voting ) are more likely to vote than those 18 to As the following graph will illustrate, the percentage of Millennials who consider themselves to be politically engaged has also fallen over the last year. In our November 2009 and February 2010 polls, 24 percent indicated that they were politically active or engaged; that number has dropped to 18 percent today. 6

7 DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF TO BE POLITICALLY ENGAGED OR ACTIVE? 24% 24% 18% Nov Feb Oct Solid Majority Prefer Democrat-Congress Millennials, by a significant 11-point margin of 53 percent to 42 percent, prefer that Democrats maintain control of Congress. When only the most likely voters are polled (i.e., the 27% who say they will definitely vote), the margin remains largely the same, 55 percent to 43 percent. Support for a Democrat-Congress is strongest among: Millennials and the Tea Party Despite the significant amount of news coverage on the impact that the Tea Party is having on American politics in a majority (54%) of Millennials are not sure if they are supporters of the movement, or not. Provided the options of supporter, not supporter and don t know percent of Millennials say they support the Tea Party and 34 percent say that they are not supporters. Nearly one-quarter (24%) of young Republicans support the Tea Party, a number that is significantly higher than support among Independents (9%) and Democrats (4%). DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF TO BE A SUPPORTER OF THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT, OR ARE YOU NOT A SUPPORTER OF THE TEA PARTY MOVEMENT? Supporter 11% Black voters (81% Democrats - 10% Republicans); Hispanic voters (57% - 35%); and Women (56% - 38%). Republican support is strongest among: Whites (51% Republicans - 44% Democrats); and Independent voters (48% - 43%). Not Sure 54% Not Supporter 34% 7

8 Job Performance Ratings Dip Along with Direction of U.S.; A Look Ahead to 2012 White House Match-Ups Job Performance Ratings Decline Along with Direction of the U.S. in Minds of Millennials While Millennials clear choice this November is a victory for the Democrats, that is not to say that Millennials are particularly satisfied with the job that Democrats have been doing in Congress. At the time of our survey, less than two-in-five (39%) Millennials approve of the way Democrats are handling their job in Congress; and even fewer, 28 percent, approve of the job that the Republicans are doing. While the job performance ratings of President Obama have continued to decline over the last year (from 58% in late 2009, to 56% in early 2010 to 49% today), the President continues to be held in more favorable esteem than the Democrats (10 point advantage for Obama) and Republicans (21 point advantage for Obama) in Congress. Those that rate the President most favorably include: blacks (83% job approval), Hispanics (62%) and those who live in the Western U.S. (56%) -- although approval among Hispanics has fallen dramatically in the last year as the table below indicates TOTAL IN 4-YR COLL DEMOCRAT OBAMA APPROVAL RATING BY SUBGROUP NOV FEB OCT % 56% 49% 60% 55% 48% 56% 57% 52% 57% 60% 51% 86% 84% 79% DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE JOB PERFORMANCE OF: -- APPROVAL RATINGS -- Nov Feb Oct REPUBLICAN IND. WHITE BLACK HISPANIC 21% 21% 18% 49% 49% 42% 48% 45% 37% 84% 83% 83% 81% 69% 62% Barack Obama 58% 56% 49% MALE FEMALE NORTHEAST 56% 53% 47% 60% 59% 52% 66% 56% 52% Democrats in Congress 48% 42% 39% MIDWEST US SOUTH US 57% 51% 46% 52% 53% 46% Republicans in Congress 35% 32% 28% WEST US 64% 64% 56% 8

9 With the economy the most dominant issue by far (53% say that this is their top concern), the percentage of young Americans who believe that our country is headed in the right direction has also fallen over the last year -- and now rests at 18 percent. ALL IN ALL, DO YOU THINK THAT THINGS Right direction Wrong track IN THE NATION ARE... November 2009 February 2010 October 2010 Unsure 23% 23% 18% 37% 36% 39% 39% 40% 41% DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF THE WAY BARACK OBAMA IS HANDLING: -- APPROVAL RATINGS -- November 2009 February 2010 November 2010 Health care Economy Iran Afghanistan Federal budget deficit Gulf oil spill Immigration 44% 46% 39% 42% 42% 43% 41% 43% 44% 38% 40% 36% 37% 44% 44% 47% 49% President Obama and the Issues In total, Millennials were asked to rate President Obama s job performance on seven of the most important issues of the day. While the President may have improved slightly in health care since February (44% to 47% approval, close to margin of error), his handling of the economy decreased 7 points, from 46 percent approval to 39 percent. There were no issues where the President received more than 50 percent job approval. 9

10 Looking Ahead to 2012 OBAMA VS. GENERIC REPUBLICAN (N=976) Unfortunately for the GOP, the 2012 election for President will not be between President Obama and a generic Republican candidate. In a proposed election match-up between Barack Obama and the Republican Party s candidate for President, the results are a dead heat: 31 percent of Millennials would vote for for Barack Obama, 30 percent for the Republican candidate and 39 percent unsure at the moment. The results change dramatically, in favor of President Obama, when specific Republican candidates are named. For example: Barack Obama leads Newt Gingrich by 30 points, 44 percent to 14 percent; Barack Obama leads Sarah Palin by 25 points, 48 percent to 23 percent; and Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 25 points, 43 percent to 18 percent. Unsure 39% OBAMA VS. GINGRICH (N=1,028) Unsure 42% Gingrich 14% Obama 31% Republican 30% Obama 44% OBAMA VS. PALIN (N=976) In a generic ballot (i.e., Obama vs. Republican), more than half of young Independent voters claim to be undecided (58% undecided) and those who state a preference prefer a Republican (26%) over President Obama (16%). Unsure 30% Palin 23% Obama 48% When a candidate is named, a majority of Independent voters are still undecided -- but those who have an opinion prefer President Obama solidly over named Republican challengers. Independents prefer Obama to Gingrich, 33 percent to 10 percent; Obama over Palin, 35 percent to 20 percent; and Obama over Romney, 33 percent to 14 percent. OBAMA VS. ROMNEY (N=1,028) Unsure 40% Obama 43% Romney 18% 10

11 2010 Hot Buttons: Millennial Attitudes Toward Immigration, the Ground Zero Mosque and Bush-era Tax Cuts Hot Button Immigration Issues Require More Nuance and Debate The framework for the current immigration debate does not reflect the nuance inherent in these issues in the minds of Millenials. When asked their opinions about various stages of U.S. immigration, nearly twice as many Millennials believe that immigration from the first half of the last century did more good than harm (41% agree, 22% disagree, 34% neither agree nor disagree) -- while a plurality disagree with that notion as it relates to recent immigration into the United States (28% agree, 35% disagree, 33% neither agree nor disagree). Additionally, Millennials perceive recent U.S. immigration from Asia differently than recent immigration from Latin America. More Millennials believe recent immigration from Asia has done more good than harm (29% agree, 24% disagree) -- but it is the reverse when they are asked about recent immigration from Latin America (26% agree, 33% disagree). In both cases -- a plurality tell us that they are unsure, they neither agree nor disagree. IMMIGRATION INTO THE U.S. HAS DONE MORE GOOD THAN HARM Agree Early 20th century Recent immigration Recent immigration from Asia Recent imm. from Latin America As evidence of the divisiveness of this issue among Millennials, one only needs to look at differences by race where pluralities of whites (43% disagree, 22% agree) and blacks (34% disagree, 21% agree) disagree that recent immigration has done more good than harm, while Hispanics (49% agree, 19% disagree) and other races (37% agree, 28% disagree) agree. See following table for detail. Disagree 22% 28% 35% 29% 24% 26% 33% 41% 11

12 RECENT IMMIGRATION INTO THE U.S. HAS DONE MORE GOOD THAN HARM AGREE DISAGREE On issues related to illegal immigration -- nearly 4-in-5 (78%) Millennials believe that illegal immigration is a very (38%) or somewhat (40%) serious problem in the country right now TOTAL IN 4-YR COLL. DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN IND. WHITE BLACK HISPANIC 28% 36% 28% 35% 29% 36% 33% 34% 36% 27% 18% 49% 28% 39% 22% 43% 21% 34% 49% 19% Ground Zero Mosque Similar to the opinions of all Americans, a plurality of Millennials oppose the building of a mosque a few blocks from the site of the World Trade Center. Slightly more than two-in-five (41%) agree with those who object to the building of this center 3 and 25 percent agree with those who think the center should be allowed to be built. Among college students, 42 percent oppose the building, while 32 percent support the current plan. It should be noted the significant differences that can occur when polling Hispanics in English only, rather than in English or Spanish percent of English-speaking Hispanics agree with the above statement, 21 percent disagree -- but among Hispanics who are more comfortable taking the survey in Spanish percent agree and 16 percent disagree. On the Ground Zero mosque debate, Millennials are similar to all Americans in their opposition to the mosque s location. From August 19-22, 2010, Pew Research Center/Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life asked the same question to N=1,003 Americans: 51 percent opposed the mosque, 34 percent supported the mosque, and 15 percent were unsure. One issue where there seems to be less divineness among Millennials is on the DREAM Act, which would make it possible for illegal immigrant students who arrived in the U.S. as minors the opportunity to gain permanent residency as long as they attend college or serve in the U.S. military. Nearly two-thirds (64%) support the DREAM Act and 32 percent oppose it. Politically, support is strongest among Democrats (73% support) and Independents (65% support) compared to Republicans (50%). 3 Original question was asked by Pew Research Center/Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life in August Harvard IOP used the same wording for tracking purposes. Aug , N=1,003 adults nationwide. MoE ± 4. 12

13 The Bush-era Tax Cuts To compare the opinions of Millennials on the Bush-era tax cuts with the population as a whole, the IOP asked a question that was originally asked to N=1,000 Americans by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media on behalf of the AP. 4 Unlike the question that we tracked regarding the mosque -- on the issue of tax cuts, the opinions of Millennials are different than the opinions of America as a whole. THE TAX CUTS THAT WERE PASSED IN 2001 WILL EXPIRE THIS YEAR IF THEY ARE NOT CONTINUED. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING BEST DESCRIBES WHAT YOU THINK CONGRESS SHOULD DO ABOUT THE TAX CUTS? TOTAL EXPIRE FOR ONE EXPIRE FOR $250,000 ONLY CONTINUE FOR EVERYONE 14% 44% 38% According to the AP-GfK poll, 44 percent of Americans believe that the 2001 tax cuts should be extended for everyone, 39 percent believe they should continue only for those earning less than $250,000 per year. A plurality (44%) of Millennials believe that the tax cuts for those who make more than $250,000 should expire; 38 percent say that they should be extended for everyone. EVERY DEMO- CRAT REPUBLI- CAN INDE- PENDENT 14% 41% 40% 14% 47% 36% 17% 50% 30% 12% 33% 52% 15% 48% 35% 4 AP-GfK Poll conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. Sept. 8-13, N=1,000 adults nationwide. Margin of error ±

14 Conclusion For more than a decade, our IOP study group of undergraduate students has been meeting regularly to discuss their generation s involvement in American politics. While some semesters the data were more encouraging than others, the overarching narrative of the last ten years has been that of a new, potentially great generation, beginning to take hold -- a generation that seemed intent on making an impact first as community volunteers and then in the voting booth culminating with the election of Barack Obama in And then something happened. The economy crashed. Jobs were lost. Oil spilled. Troops were re-deployed. Partisanship exploded. And now, more than 70 percent of young voters tell us that they are not sure that they will vote in the upcoming midterm elections. Suddenly, the generation that in 2008 proudly made the difference as caucus-goers in snowy Iowa for Senator Barack Obama, tell us less than three years later that they are so discouraged with politics that they may sit this one out. With just a few weeks to go before Election Day, it is not too late to turn this listlessness into action. It is not too late for the best of America s leaders -- whether they represent the left or the right -- to step up, challenge and empower young people to vote on November 2nd. It is not too late for young people, the great Millennial generation, to use the technology and tools that they invented to spread the word and encourage their friends and family members to spend five minutes to vote for their representative in Congress or their state capitol. From the earliest days of his presidency, Barack Obama challenged Americans to hold both him and other elected officials accountable. Accountability is the difference between polls and elections. In elections, citizens can hold their representatives accountable. Let s hope that Millennials take President Obama s advice, vote on November 2nd -- and exercise the awesome power that comes with voting and being part of the largest generation in American history. A generation marked earlier this decade by their community spirit and optimism, seems on the brink of a despair similar to that of their parents, grandparents and millions of disaffected older voters. 14

15 The Survey Group John C. Culver Director, Institute of Politics Catherine McLaughlin" " Executive Director, Institute of Politics John Della Volpe" " Director of Polling, Institute of Politics Founder, SocialSphere, Inc. Esten Perez" " " Director of Communications, Institute of Politics Laura Simolaris" " " Director of National Programs, Institute of Politics Jonathan Chavez, 05" " Student Chair Director of Analytics, SocialSphere, Inc. Student Survey Committee Pamela Ban 12 Chloe Bates '13 Sarah Esty '11 Thomas Esty '14 Sophie Fry '13 Adam Gann '12 Becca Goldstein '13 Han He '13 Kimberly Herrmann '12 Skyler Hicks '14 Gabriel Neustadt '13 Lillian Nottingham '13 Gorick Ng '14 Bill Rose, 11 (Student Co-Chair 2009) Jeff Solnet '12 Simon Thompson '14 Matthew Warshauer '14 Student Survey Chair Eric Lu, 12 Harvard s Institute of Politics (IOP) was established in 1966 as a memorial to President Kennedy. The IOP s mission is to unite and engage students, particularly undergraduates, with academics, politicians, activists, and policymakers on a non-partisan basis and to stimulate and nurture their interest in public service and leadership. The Institute strives to promote greater understanding and cooperation between the academic world and the world of politics and public affairs. The Institute has been conducting national political polls of America s college students since More information, including past results, is available online at 15

16 Appendix Methodology Knowledge Networks conducted a study of young adults on political issues on behalf of Harvard University s Institute of Politics. The goal of the project was to collect 2,000 completed interviews with Knowledge Networks panelists years of age in English and Spanish. The main sample data collection took place from September 23 to October 4, A small pretest was conducted prior to the main survey to examine the accuracy of the data and the length of the interview. Three thousand, seven hundred and fifty-six (3,756) KnowledgePanel members were assigned to the study. The cooperation rate was 53 percent resulting in 2,004 completed interviews. One hundred forty eight (148) interviews were conducted in Spanish with the remainder done in English. The web-enabled KnowledgePanel is a probability-based panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers and residential addresses. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone or by mail to participate in the web-enabled KnowledgePanel. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, Knowledge Networks provides a laptop and ISP connection at no cost. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and are sent s throughout each month inviting them to participate in research. More technical information is available at and by request to the IOP. Key personnel from Knowledge Networks involved in this project include: Mike Dennis Senior Vice President, Government & Academic Research. Phone number: (650) mdennis@knowledgenetworks.com Wendy Mansfield Vice President, Research Development. Phone number: (202) wmansfield@knowledgenetworks.com Sergei Rodkin Associate Vice President. Phone number: (650) srodkin@knowledgenetworks.com About Knowledge Networks Knowledge Networks delivers quality and service to guide leaders in business, government, and academia uniquely bringing scientifically valid research to the online space through its probability-based, online KnowledgePanel. The company delivers unique study design, science, analysis, and panel maintenance, along with a commitment to close collaboration at every stage of the research process. Knowledge Networks leverages its expertise in brands, media, advertising, and public policy issues to provide insights that speak directly to clients most important concerns. For more information about Knowledge Networks, visit 16